NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 28 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010044-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2010
• Sequence Number: 44
• Publication Date: March 28, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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~~`""`^~'F Director of
~ Central
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CY# 28)
National ~ Intelligence Daily
Monday
28 March 1983
CPAS NID 83-073 X
arc t
?py 2 81
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Contents
Western Europe: Growing Assertiveness on Middle East ...... 1
EI Salvador: Progress in Economic Reform ............................ 2
Spain-Morocco-Algeria: Efforts To Improve Relations .......... 3
Chad: Political and Military Developments ............................ 4
USSR-Hungary: Lectures on Management ............................ 5
South Africa-Lesotho: Cross-Border Attacks ........................ 6
Sudan-Ethiopia: Expected Influx of Refugees ........................ 7
USSR-Yugoslavia: Increase in Soviet Oil Deliveries .............. 7
Special Analysis
Cuba-Latin America: Cultivating Closer Ties ........................ 8
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WESTERN EUROPE: Growing Assertiveness on Middle East
Frustration with Israel and concern that the US initiative is stalled
are prompting the West Euro eans to become more active in the
Middle East peace process.
The recent EC Summit statement on the Middle East went
considerably beyond the initial West German draft in calling for the
inclusion of the PLO in peace negotiations, according to a senior
West German official. Most EC member states felt frustrated with the
policies of Prime Minister Begin toward settlements in Israeli-
occupied territor and they hoped to press the US for faster progress
toward peace.
British officials, meanwhile, have confirmed to the US that they
cautioned King Hussein about joining peace talks without PLO
support, but they deny that they sought to dissuade him from
participating. They noted that it was at the UK's suggestion that the
EC Summit agreed to work through West Germany to assure Hussein
of West European support if he joined the talks. The British added
that Foreign Secretary Pym will ur a the Saudis to be more helpful
when he visits Riyadh next month.
Comment: West European leaders are worried that the US
administration may be distracted from its peace initiative-as a
presidential election year draws closer-and thus will add to Arab
frustrations. They fear that their recent support of the US initiative
might jeopardize their relations with Arab moderates. The leaders'
current and prospective moves toward a more rode endent position
probably reflect a desire to protect those links.
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EL SALVADOR: Progress in Economic Reform
President Magana is making substantial progress in carrying out
the major economic reforms introduced in 1980, despite opposition
from extreme rightists.
The central bank recently began the final step in reforming the
banking system when it announced it is offering up to 49 percent of
the equity in nationalized banks to private investors. Purchases will be
limited to a maximum of 1 percent per owner. The government had
taken over ownership of all banking and savings and loan institutions
in 1980 as the first step in eliminating the concentration of control of
credit in the hands of a few powerful families.
Earlier this month the Constituent Assembly agreed to extend for
10 months the period during which peasants may submit petitions
claiming ownership of plots under the "land-to-the-tiller" program.
So far, less than one-half of the otential beneficiaries have taken
advantage of the program.
The Assembly has refused to endorse a campaign by major coffee
growers to weaken the powers of the National Coffee Institute over
production, pricing, and marketing. The institute was established as a
cooperative by the government in 1980 to ensure equitable returns
for small producers.0
Comment: The continued progress on these economic reforms is
a victory for Magana and moderate elements in the Constituent
Assembly, who have had to overcome strong challenges by extreme
rightist factions. In recent months, many more provisional titles have
been awarded under the land-to-the-tiller program. A total of more
than 62,000 claims have been filed so far and some 36,000 provisional
titles issued.
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2 28 March 1983
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Spanish Exclaves in North Africa
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SPAIN-MOROCCO-ALGERIA: Efforts To Improve Relations
Prime Minister Gonzalez's trip to Morocco that begins today
probably will lessen the chance that differences between Madrid and
Rabat could threaten US interests in the western Mediterranean.
0
Gonzalez's visit will be his first official foreign trip since he took
office. When his Socialist Party was in the opposition in Parliament, it
was coolly disposed toward Morocco and maintained close ties with
Algeria and the Polisario Front. As part of an effort to improve
relations with Algeria, Madrid sent ahigh-level team to Algiers last
Tuesday to negotiate a new natural gas urchase agreement and to
discuss greater regional cooperation.
Comment: The Socialists apparently have decided that good
relations with Rabat are the best safeguard against pressure on Ceuta
and Melilla, Spain's exclaves on Morocco's Mediterranean coast.
They also seem to believe that their support for King Hassan-whom
they see as a force for stability in Morocco-is important to Spain's
own security as well as to its hold over the Canary Islands. In his
discussions with Hassan, Gonzalez's underl ing concern will be to
assure the security of the exclaves.
Hassan is worried about Madrid's ties with Algiers and probably
will welcome Gonzalez's offer to keep relations with Spain on an even
keel. Such an understanding would lessen the possibility of the US's
being caught in the middle of aMoroccan-Spanish dispute.
Although the Socialists' principal goal in the area seems to be
maintaining good relations with Morocco, sentiment and commercial
considerations dictate efforts to strengthen ties with Algeria. To
reduce the difficulties in maintaining good relations with both Algiers
and Rabat, the Socialists probably will work to promote closer ties
between the two. If Morocco and Algeria resolve their dispute over
Western Sahara, however Rabat mi ht ursue a harder line with
Spain on the exclaves.
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CHAD: Political and Military Developments
Chad is vigorously seeking UN Security Council action against
Libya while reinforcing its northernmost position as the dissident
buildup continues.
To dramatize the threat that Libyan leader Qadhafi poses to
Chad, President Habre's government has introduced a complaint in
the Security Council about Libya's occupation of the Aozou Strip
since 1973. N'Djamena was forced to withdraw a similar complaint in
1978 because of inade uate preparation and successful Libyan
counterlobbying.~
Meanwhile, Habre is continuing to reinforce his stronghold at
Faya-Largeau and is making plans to retake Ounianga Kebir, which
was abandoned early this month to the Libyan-backed dissidents.
Habre has some 3,000 troops in the Fa a-Lar eau area facin an
estimated 2,000 to 2,500 dissidents.
Comment: By appealing to the UN, Habre has taken a calculated
risk that his efforts to embarrass Libya politically will not backfire or
cause Qadhafi to put pressure on the dissidents to launch an
offensive. Even if the dissidents continue to stay in place, however,
Habre's forces would find it difficult to sustain a prolonged campaign
of attrition against them. The government cannot easily replace its
material losses, and its supply lines are overextended.
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USSR-HUNGARY: Lectures on Management
The Hungarian First Deputy Minister of Industry recently
addressed a Soviet high-level course on economic management at
the academy of the National Economy of the Council of Ministers. The
audience included leading representatives of agriculture, food, light
industry, trade, and transport. This reported) iy s the first time anon-
Soviet lecturer has addressed such a group.
Comment: The event highlights the seriousness with which the
leadership is studying the applicability of Hungarian economic
practices. Previous indications have included favorable references to
Hungarian and other East European economic reform measures,
particularly those affecting agriculture, in the speeches of Soviet
leaders and in the media. Direct exchanges in this area with the
Hungarians, however, generally have been at a lower level. The fact
that the speaker represented Hungary's industrial sector confirms
that the Soviets are interested in a broader ran a of Hungarian
practices than agricultural techniques alone.
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SOUTH AFRICA-LESOTHO: Cross-Border Attacks
Lesotho has charged South Africa with responsibility for several
attacks on Saturday. Maseru radio reported one group from South
Africa led by a South African officer attacked a border post. Lesotho
also claims to have arrested a number of people, including black
South Africans, following a sabotage attempt against electrical
installations in Maseru. Another border post and a Catholic mission
reportedly were attacked.
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Comment: The claims of direct South African participation have
not been confirmed, and the actions probably were carried out
primarily by South African-backed insurgents. Pretoria has long
supported the Lesotho Liberation Army to counter what the South
Africans see as a permissive policy by Prime Minister Jonathan
toward the African National Congress. The attacks reflect the Lesotho
insurgents' growing strength and ma indicate an increased South
African commitment to them. 25X1
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SUDAN-ETHIOPIA: Expected Influx of Refugees
Thousands of peasants are moving toward Sudan to escape the
drought in Ethiopia's Eritrea and Tigray Provinces and, by the peak of
the dry season in May and June, 250,000 refugees reportedly may
cross into the Kassala and Gederaf areas of Sudan. The US Embassy
in Khartoum reports that the drought is as severe as that of 1973-74,
which killed an estimated 200,000 people. According to the World
Food Program representative in Addis Ababa, it could affect as many
as 3.5 million Ethiopians. 25X1
Comment: Some 600,000 Ethiopian and Ugandan refugees are
now in Sudan. The food currently available in the region would
accorr5modate only 500 refugees per week, and if many thousands of
refugees arrive in May, the relief system probably will collapse. Water
will remain in extremely short supply in the Gederaf area until the
rains begin in late June. The resumption of the Ethiopian offensive to
crush the Ti ra Peo le's Liberation Front would make the situation
still worse. 25X1
USSR-YUGOSLAVIA: Increase in Soviet Oil Deliveries
Soviet and Yugoslav negotiators meeting in Belgrade in
conjunction with the recent visit of Premier Tikhonov reportedly
agreed the USSR will supply 96,000 barrels of crude oil per day this
year, 7 percent more than called for in the trade agreement signed in
January. Moreover, a new agreement is expected later this year on
the sale of an additional 20,000 barrels per day. According to the US
Embassy in Belgrade, the Soviets are seeking additional agricultural
products in exchange. 25X1
Comment: The Soviets had been resisting Yugoslav requests for
more oil. If they have agreed to increase deliveries without demanding
Yugoslav concessions, it would reflect Moscow's concern that
Belgrade's economic plight might result in increased Western
influence or cause political instability. Even with the additional Soviet
oil, Yugoslavia will have shortages of fuel. 25X1
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Cuban Representation in Latin Annerica, March 1.983 '
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