AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3
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RIPPUB
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T
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12
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 27, 2010
Sequence Number: 
1
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Publication Date: 
July 9, 1985
Content Type: 
REPORT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Directorate of r ~~ TO Secret Intelligence (~J ~~ Afghanistan Situation Report State Dept. review completed Top Secret NESA M 85-10143CX SOVA M 85-10126CX 0 9 July 1985 n n ~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 TOP SECRET ' AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT CONTENTS INSURGENTS INCREASE PRESSURE IN KABUL AND HE RAT Insurgents recently rocketed Kabul ands disrupting regime activity in Herat. Iran is agai n forcing delays of s upply caravans destined for insurgents in western Afghanistan. IRAN IMPEDES SUPPLY FLOWS The Pashtun cultural heritage spurs determined resistance to the Soviet invaders but, at the same 1 25X1 25X1 25X1 2 25X1 THE PASHTUN ETHOS AND THE AFGHAN RESISTANCE 4 25X1 time, hampers cooperative military efforts. This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments on the issues raised in the publication should be 9 July 1985 NE~SA M 85-1O143CX 25X1 i SOVA M 85-10126?CX Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 25X1 TOP SECRET INSURGENTS .INCREASE PRESSURE IN KABUL AN:D HE'RAT' The US Embassy reports.that.insurgents on 2?July rocketed several areas. of Kabul while .attacking: the airport with machinegun fire and rockets ?or mortars.: In. mid-May, according to US Embassy sources; se.c,ur:ity i n Herat was so poor. that the proVi nci al? governor moved about in an APC with an armed escort-. The 12-kilometer trip from the airport to the city required 90 minutes and involved passing through successive Soviet, regime, and insurgent checkpoints. Comment.: The insurgent attacks on Kabul are the largest since the Soviets increased security in the area last November and coinci de with reports that:. insurgents in the Kabul area are receiving more and better. arms. Security in Herat has been deteriorating for months. The attacks will force the Soviets to move units agai n through the outl yi na areas of both c~ti es in search of insurgent bands. 25X1 9 Jul y. 1985 -NE~SA M 85'-10143CX 25X1 SOVA ~?M 85=10126CX Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 TOP SECRET IRAN IMPEDES SUPPLY FLOMS Iran is agai n imped ing the flow of materiel to 25X1 insur ents i n weste rn Af ha nista 25X1 The guerrillas have waited six o nine months before o btaining permission to ship 25X1 weapons and southwestern ammunit Afghan ion from istan no the triborder area rth to Herat. Some in Hizbi Islami insurgents informed the Iranians that they would prefer the danger of transporting supplies across the western plains of Af hanistan to dealing with Iranian officials. Comment: Tehran's continuing reluctance to assist the mostly Sunni insurgents in western Afghanistan, even by allowing supply caravans to transit Iranian territory, will oblige the resistance to rely more heavily on captured arms and may- cause it to postpone or cancel some operations while awaiting supplies. Shortages of arms during major Soviet operations--last summer, for example--reduced the insurgents' fighting capability. IN BRIEF -- A New York Times journalist who recently travelled extensively in Afghanistan says that the resistance controls about 95 percent of the countryside and that he saw no signs of famine or large-scale attacks. on civilians. The correspondent is preparing a series of articles on his travels. 9 July 1985 NESA M~85-10143CX SOVA M 85-10126CX 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 TOP SECRET PERSPECTIVE THE PASHTUN ETHOS AND THE AFGHAN RESISTANCE by NE SA Pashtun insurgent groups are central to the Afghan insurgency. Pashtuns lead most of the major resistance organizations based in Peshawar, and the groups affiliated with them dominate the insurgency in the southern and eastern provinces. The exiles range politically from the monarchists linked with Gailani to the extreme Islamic fundamentalists led by Gulbuddin He kmatyar and Sayyaf. In the northern provinces, the Pashtun insurgents have often been at odds with the Tajik-dominated Jamiat-i-Islami. In .Qandahar Province, Pashtun insurgents from different tribes have frequently fought each other. Despite their role in internecine fighting in the insurgency, the Pashtuns have been mi l i tari l y among the most effective groups fighting the Soviets. Their most noted commander is Abdul Haq, who has been responsible for many of the attacks on the Kabul area. In our view, cultural factors account for the Pashtuns' determined resistance to the Soviet invaders and the Kabul regime and at the same time for the tribesmen's difficulties in mounting a coherent military effort. The Pashtun ethos has been a major factor in the insurgents' internecine fighting and rivalry. Pashtuns are aggressive, fractious, and martial. They are linked mainly by a common language (Pashtu) and a code of conduct ( Pashtunwali ) based on Islam and tradition, in which vengeance is a key element. Though Pashtuns comprise much of the insurgency, they also dominate the military officer ranks of the Kabul regime. Urban Pashtuns., including many military officers and several members of the Kabul 1 eadershi p, often have 1 ost thei r tribal identities. The Pashtun People The Pashtuns are the largest and the politically dominant ethnic group in Afghanistan. According to academic experts, an estimated 6 million Pashtuns live in Afghanistan, with the majority in the southern, eastern, and northeastern parts of the country. Most are engaged in farming and livestock raising; others 9 July 1985 NESA M 85-10143CX SOVA M 85-10126CX 25X1 1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 TOP SECRET ' are merchants, artisans, soldiers, and civil servants; about a third are normally pastoral nomads, though the war has severely disrupted their migratory habits and. ?turned many into sedentary refugees. Nearly all are Sunni. The more than 20 Pashtun tribe-s are di vid.ed into more than 400 clans; most tribes are grouped into the Durani and Ghilzai tribal confederations; which rose in opposition to each other in the 18th century. Leadership and Hierarchy Pashtun insurgent leaders are chosen for several reasons, including their military effectiveness. According to Western and Afghan academicians, a Pashtun leader is selected on the basis of his ability to protect his tribe from external threats and to solve internal tribal pwoblems. Leadership qualities include bravery, wisdom, charisma, wealth, fighting ability, and hospitality--a willingness to receive, feed, and support others. To have a significant contingent of fighters, a tribal leader must come from a fairly large clan, according to an Afghan academi ci an. Leadews are not normally elected by formal ceremony or vote, according to an academic expert, but emerge by demonstrating ability and are accepted by consensus. Once a person is regarded as a leader, a family member--usually a son or brother--customarily re places him when he dies or grows too old to lead. Although the tribes have a hierarchy, the Pashtuns value individual freedom, equality, and respect for the- di gnity of the i ndi vi du al, according to Western observers. PashtunNali The Pashtun code, Pashtunwal i , is respons?i bl a for many of the divisions in Pashtun society and the. insurgency. Accenting militarism and honor, the code has as its most important elements badal, vengeance; melmastia, the obligation of hospitality and. th.e protection given each guest; 'and nanavati, the right of asyl um and the obligation to accept a truce offer. The principles of honor and revenge have made feuds continuous processes. in the Pashtun community. To infringe on someone's honor. is cause for killing the transgressor, which i'n turn wi1.1 call for another death 9 July 1985 NESA M 85-10143CX 25X1 SOVA M 85=10126CX Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 TOP SECRET in revenge; blood money is sometimes accepted. Families are obliged to seek vengeance, even after a generation or more, and badal has Jed to feuds lasting several generations. Melmastia is a matter of prestige and a duty of the i ndi vi dual household. Hospitality must be extended to known enemies as lavishly as to friends or strangers. In turn the guest is expected to behave in a.friendly manner. Nanavati is a special form of hospitality i 11 ustrated by a Pashtun fol k story that praises a woman who granted sanctuary to her son's Loyalties. A Pashtun's commitment to persons and groups outside the family and clan is uncertain and .impermanent. According to Western observers, a Pashtun's first loyalty is to his kin group, which is the source of 'his livelihood, his social neighborhood, and his moral code. His loyalty extends to his tribe and nation only insofar as his family interests . coincide with the larger groups'. .The importance of an issue is often measured by how much it involves his fami 1'y honor or welfare. Pashtun tri besmen have frequent y agreed to truces with the Kabul regime and. have also a reed to serve as regime mi 1 iti a. i n many instances the tri esmen ave accepted the government's offers of money and weapons and. soon after redefected to the resistance. Sometimes the tribesmen have agreed to negotiate and then ambushed the regime's negotiators. Such behavior is permitted by the tribal codes, according to a Western academic expert, because the regime is not considered a legitimate author it v. Militancy. .Tradition also encourages P.ashtuns to parti-ci.pate in the insurgency. Pashtun?s, according to Western 'observers, admire the posturing warrior, with bandoleer and rifle, who stand s. erect and moves? l ithel y. , ?Rea,di Hess to do battle is suggested no.t ?onl y by the .custo.m. of carryi ng weapons but also by village construction--the high defense towers:of the fortified -vi.ll age are common throughout Afghanistan, but 9 July 1985 NESA M 85-10143CX SOVA M 85-10126CX 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 TOP SECRET particularly in Pashtun territory. The heroic spirit, according to one Western observer, has prompted Pashtun insurgents to carry tape recorders to ambushes and fire fights. The recorded sounds of battle accompanied by~ the shouting of fierce insults and slogans are taken back to camp and played to admiring women and children. Reliable observers also indicate that Pashtuns prefer individual weapons to crew-served weapons because the former permit personal identification and greater ego gratification. Rivalry. The Pashtun custom of cousin marriage--a man weds the daughter of his father's brother--perpetuates the inward-looking nature of the society, according to Western observers, and often causes male cousins to become rivals, vying for i nheri tance from the common, grandf ather, for wives, and for i of 1 uence withi n the family. Cousin rivalry has caused many Pashtun family feuds and is an important factor in tribal politics. If there are two factions within a tribe, cousins will usually be in opposite camps. Fundamentalist resistance leader Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, for example, is a first cousin of former President Hafizullah Amin, according to a Western academi c,i an. Pushtunistan The concept of a united Pushtunistan has been a periodic battle cry of the Pashtuns. Advocates seek self-determination for the Pashtuns--that is, for those in Pakistan--and some want relocation of the border eastward to the Indus escarpment. The Irredentist approach 'of successive Afghan governments has had diminishing appeal for Pashtun tribal leaders in .Pakistan, however, who seem to prefer greater local autonomy within Pakistan to political union with their Afghan brothers. Conclusion The lack of a united front on Pushtunistan as well as other subjects underscores the individualistic nature of the Pashtuns. Of all the ethnic groups in Afghanistan, the Pashtun insurgents are the least 1 i kel y to cooperate among themselves, 1 et alone with others, but the most likely to fight indefinitely. _ 9 July 1985 NE SA M 85-10143CX SOVA M 85-10126CX Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3 Top secret 25X1 Top Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/02 :CIA-RDP85T01058R000406580001-3