INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM THE CHINESE ECONOMY AT MID-YEAR 1972
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1Z 7A c,
Cnnfidential
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
The Chinese Economy at Mid-Year 1972
"CIA
~, Confidential
DCUMENT SRVICES. BRANCH ER IM 72-98
~,. June-1972
FiCOPY Copy No. 112
00 NOT DESTROY .:
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WARNING
This docunacnt contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, seetien.q 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 9
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CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
June 1972
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
THE CHINESE ECONOMY AT MID-YEAR 1972
Summary and Conclusions
1. At mid-1972, one and one-half years into the Fourth Five-Year
Plan, the economy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) seems to be
progressing smoothly on all fronts. The civilian bureaucracy has been largely
rebuilt after the purge of the Cultural Revolution, and military influence
in the economy has been receding to previous levels. The economy is moving
forward on the basis of major policies established in the 1960s which
apparently have been untouched by the political upheavals of the recent
past.
2. Production of basic industrial commodities - steel, coal, electric
power, and cement - is climbing steadily above the record levels of 1971.
The vigorous exploitation of China's new oilfields and the initial mastery
of production of petrochemicals mark the rapid advance of the key
petroleum industry. Impressive progress also characterizes the armaments
industry, whica is turning out an increasing proportion of Chinese-designed
weapons.
3. In agriculture, Peking has been stressing the Mao-inspired
techniques of the model Tachai production brigade and the benefits of
technical innovations by the untutored masses. More to the point, however,
are two pragmatic agrcultural policies: the supply of increasing amounts
of chemical fertilizer and irrigation equipment to the countryside and the
permissive attitude toward the private plot. Agricultural production will be
substantially higher in 1972 than in 1971 if the weather remains reasonably
good.
4. Over the long run, the PRC's foreign trade probably will increase
more slowly than domestic economic activity because Peking stresses the
principle of self-sufficiency and because the agricultural sector can only
gradually provide more goods for export. On the s' face, the year 1972
would seem to be an exception, with foreign trade turnover likely to increase
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Economic
Research.
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from the US $4.6 billion of 1971 to at least $5.2 billion or by more than
10%. The problem is that a large part of the increase in dollar value -
perhaps as much as one-half - will be the result of the revaluation of world
currencies in December 1971.
5, The joint US-PRC communique issued at the conclusion of
President Nixon's visit to China called for the facilitation of trade between
the two nations. The invitation of 40 Americans to the 1972 Spring Canton
Trade Fair (15 April to 15 May) has highlighted trade contacts so far. These
Americans bought perhaps $5 million to $10 million worth of Chinese
products - metals, fireworks, foodstuffs, and various other consumer
items - for delivery in 1972. US imports from the PRC in the first quarter
of 1972 totaled $9.2 million.
6. On the export side, the Chinese have expressed interest in large
US jet aircraft, telecommunications equipment, transportation equipment,
earthmoving machinery, aircraft navigational aids, agricultural chemicals and
equipment, and medical instruments. Negotiations for major Chinese
purchases are apt to be protracted, and delivery of large amounts of these
items is not to be expected in 1972. US exports to the PRC in the first
quarter of 1972 were confined to one transaction of $2.9 million - the
sale of a satellite ground station by RCA. No exports in the second quarter
have been identified so far. Total two-way trade for the entire year 1972
may lie in the $40 million to $50 million range.
7. A major feature of the Chinese economy in 1971 and in the first
half of 1972 has been the gradual improvement in living standards in several
directions:
- greater variety, quality, and availability of food;
a fuller cloth ration and, at least in urban areas,
brighter and more variegated clothing;
some easing of crowded housing conditions through
the construction of apartment blocks in urban areas
and the myriad do-it-yourself improvements in rural
housing;
increases, admittedly from a small base, in the
numbers of bicycles, watches, radios, and other
consumer durables; and
a wider spread of medical, educational, and
recreational services.
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8. In parallel with the rises in living standards, the regime has been
granting a series of increases in wages in 1972. The increases have not been
universal. For example, increases for unskilled and semi-skilled workers seem
to have been about 10%, whereas higher-paid workers and managers have
received little or no increases. In rural areas, the regime has raised certain
procuienient prices and has lowered the prices of certain industrial products
bought ly the agricultural sector with the result that peasants, especially
in well-to-do communes and brigades, are getting a bigger share-uut and,
possibly, a better return from their sideline activities.
9. Even though to all appearances the economy is moving along
smartly in mid-1972, the usual caveats are in order. The population control
program, which has been intermittent and has lacked top administrative
priority, has not stemmed the population tide to any appreciable extent.
Indeed, the "barefoot doctors" (young medical corpsmen being sent to the
countryside) may be lowering the death rate through their influence on
public health and sanitation more than they are lowering the birth rate
through their packets of contraceptive materials.
10. Another problem Peking must face up to is the scale of
deployment of increasingly complex weapons systems, which can consume
an alarming portion of China's top-quality resources. A third problem
concerns the renovated system of higher education which was purged of
many bourgeois elements during the Cultural Revolution. The new system
has virtues for the short-run expansion of output but is unsuitable for the
development and operation of China's industrial system in the late 1970s.
11. This memorandum describes the state of the Chinese economy
at mid-year 1972. The first section provides background by summarizing
the main trends in the economy in 1971. The second sectiop deals with
developments in the economy in the first half of 1972, in. essence since
President Nixon's trip to China. Emphasis is given to :;ie current status
of Sino-US trade. A table of economic indicators `urni''Les unclassified data
on China's GNP, industrial production, agricultural production, and foreign
trade, for the years 1952 and 1957-71.
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Background: The Economy in 1971
12. The year 1971 was th? first year of China's Fourth Five-Year
Plan (1971-7.5). It followed four years of political turmoil (the Cultural
Revolution of 1966-69) and one year of transition and regrouping (1970).
The economic theme of 1971 was the resumption of momentum in
military-industrial expansion.
13. Overall industrial output rose by about 12% in 1971. In addition
to substantial gains in steel, petroleum, and other basic industrial products,
striking advances were made in the production of a wide variety of military
weapons, including missiles, jet aircraft, tanks, and submarines. Examples
of gains in production are as follows:
1970 1971
Item Unit Output Output
Crude steel Million metric tons
18 21
Coal Million metric tons 300 325
Electric power Billion kilowatt hours 60 70
Crude oil Million metric tons 18 23
Machine tools Thousand 50 55
14. Agriculture continued to benefit from increased inputs of fertilizer
and equipment from the industrial sector. The effect of this rise in inputs
was offset, however, by above-average trouble with floods, droughts, and
insect infestations. As a result, agricultural output was about the same as
in 1970. Notwithstanding a barrage of propaganda against private economic
activity in the countryside, the authorities maintained a permissive policy
toward private plots, handicrafts, and petty trade.
15. Foreign trade continued to be the source of advanced equipment
and technology at the leading edge of China's industrialization drive. Exports
went up more than imports in order to compensate for the imbalance that
had arisen in 1970, as follows:
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Billion Current
us $
1970 1971
Trade turnover 4.22 4.64
Exports 2.05 2.42
Imports 2.17 2.22
16. The government continued to press its population control
campaign, which is a mixture of administrative pressure for later
marriages,(') provision of contraceptive chemicals and devices and
instruction in their use, greater availability of abortion and sterilization,
and threats to cut off welfare benefits beyond the second or third child.
Up to the end of 1971, the population control campaigns instituted by
the PRC had not made an appreciable dent in the population structure
because they had been
- intermittent,
- largely confined to the urban 15% of the population,
lacking in trained personnel and reliable materials,
contrary to deep-seated social traditions, and
- low on the priority list of the overworked cadres.
17. In an interview with a Cairo journalist, Chou En-lai's right hand
man for economic administration, Li Hsien-nien, made some
unprecedentedly frank remarks on the unsatisfactory state of population
statistics within the Chinese bureaucracy:
We have been racing against time to cope with the
enormous increase in population. Some people estimate the
population at 800 million and some at 750 million.
Unfortunately, there are no accurate statistics in this
connection. Nevertheless, the officials at the supply and grain
departments are saying confidently, "The number is 800 million
people." Officials outside the grain department say the
1. A typical announcement will call for men to marry at 30 instead of 25 and women
at 25 instead of 20.
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population is "750 million cnly" while the Ministry of
Commerce affirms that "the number is 830 million." However,
the planning department insists that the number is "less than
750 million." The Ministry of Commerce insists on the bigger
number in order to be able to provide goods in large quantities.
The planning men reduce the figure in order to strike a balance
in the plans of the various state departments.(2)
18. The population series used in this memorandum gives a figure
of 855 million people for mid-year 1971 and figure of 874 million people
for mid-year 1972 and implies a growth rate of 2.2% per year. The series
is based on (a) the acceptant' of the 583 million total reported in the
Chinese census of 1953, and (b) judgments as to specific birth and death
rates for the various age-sex cohorts, taking into account the availability
of food. Alternative population figures of 50 million or 100 million less
are often given and cannot be disproved.
19. The rank-and-file consumer in 1971 benefited from a number of
small improvements in living standards. According to Chinese press accounts
and the observations of visitors; the. consumer continued to benefit from
an increasing variety, quality, and availability cf foodstuffs. The clothing
ration was again honored in full, and dress, at least in urban areas, became
brighter and more variegated. Blocks of new apartments continued to be
erected in urban areas, and rural hous;.ng benefited from countless small
improvements based on private initiative and local materials. The production
of furniture, kitchen utensils, and consumer durables - fountain pens,
watches, radics, bicycles, and sewing machines - advanced in brisk fashion,
although sometimes from a small absolute base.
20. The mysterious political events of the last four months of 1971,
which resulted in the fall of Defense Minister Lin Piao and several other
high-ranking military officers, had no appreciable spillover into the
economy. In 1971 the representatives of the People's Liberation
Army (PLA), who had been stationed in economic bureaus and factories
as a stiffening element during the Cultural Resolution, began to be
withdrawn as part of the trend toward reducing the greatly enhanced
authority of the military establishment. In any case the need for the military
presence had been greatly lessened by the return of the civilian bureaucracy
to normal operation.
Economic Policy and Administration in the First Half of 1972
21. In the first half of 1972, the second year of the Fourth Five-Year
Plan, the top leadership in Peking operated with vacancies in many cabinet
2. Cairo, Al-Jumhuriyah in Arabic, p. 9, as reported in FBIS Daily Report: People's
Republic of China (FBIS-CHI.71-238), 10 December 1971, p. A-8.
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and sub-cabinet level posts. Furthermore, many issues besides economic
policies competed for the attention of Mao and his chief lieutenants - the
tensions along the Sino-Soviet border; the widening of China's international
contacts, including the visit of President Nixon to China in February; and
the continuing conflict in Indochina. As a result, Peking took no major
initiatives in economic policy and continued to withhold details of the
Fourth Five-Year Plan.
22. Economic policy remains based on the major decisions made in
the 1960s:
Economic Priorities: The prime economic goal is the expansion
of military-industrial capacity and output with two major constraints -
China is to become independent as soon as feasible of foreign equipment
and technology, and China's growing population is to be maintained at a
level consistent with productive efficiency and popular morale. Furthermore,
a balance must be maintained between expansion of industrial capacity and
growth in armaments output.
Industry: Heavy industry naturally is favored over light. Large
new industrial complexes are being located mainly at remote sites in the
interior in order to insure strategic dispersal, to encourage the general
industrialization of the hinterland, and to minimize the amount of prime
agricultural land lost to industrial construction projects. Simultaneously,
small and medium-size industrial plants are being constructed in lesser cities
and towns in order to supply cement, electric power, chemical fertilizer,
basic steel products, and simple machinery to the countryside through the
use of local labor and raw materials.
Agriculture: The investment program for agriculture - which
began in 1962 when the old strategy of letting agriculture fend for itself
had gone bankrupt - is being increased but mainly on the basis of
stepped-up efforts at the local level.
Foreign Trade: Foreign trade is fundamentally an adjunct to the
industrialization program, except in those cases where trade deals give
promise of large political gains. China's raw materials, textiles, and
agricultural products are being exchanged for advanced industrial raw
materials, machinery and technology, and low-cost food. As rapidly as
possible, foreign machinery is being copied and the best of foreign
technology is being absorbed into the Chinese economy so that China can
be independent of foreign sourcep. For the Chinese leaders, foreign financial
aid signifies an absence of economic discipline and a dependence on foreign
nations and is to be avoided.
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Living Standards: Living standards are and must remain austere
and egalitarian at this stage of China's economic development. One school'
in the leadership would completely eschew distribution of income on the
basis of output, whereas a second school, now dominant, would permit
incomes to be based on output so long as income differentials and
ideological flexibility do not become blatant.
23. The ranks of middle-level and lower-level economic cadres, which
were depleted during the Cultural Revolution, although on a lesser scale
than political functiona-ies, are now largely restored. The first half of 1972
was characterized by a smooth bureaucratic pace. Production, of course,
was emphasized but in a practical fashion. As the civilian bureaucrats
returned from Coventry, most of the remaining military officers and
non-commissioned officers who had been assigned to keep an eye on
economic discipline and output returned to their military duties. Th^
military influence on the economy has been receding to previous levels and
consists of the following:
a. A strong and intimate interest in the ministries and
production facilities in the armaments section of the economy;
and
b. The provision of men and trucks at harvest time, the
building of roads and rail lines particularly in strategic areas,
help in time of flood and other disasters, and the raising of
much of the PLA's food on army farms.
Industry in the First Half of 1972
24. To judge from available information on the first half of the year,
1972 will be a third straight year of sparkling industrial growth. The previous
two years, 1970 and 1971, benefited from catch-up growth; even though
the Cultural Revolution had interrupted industrial production, a remarkable
amount of industrial capacity was constructed; as the Cultural Revolution
waned, there was not only idled capacity to fill but also new capacity to
activate. Therefore, the increase in industrial production, which was 1.8%n
and 12%, respectively, in 1970 and 1971 will be carried forward at a lower
rate in 1972. A comparison of Peking's claims for industrial growth at the
provincial level in the first quarter of 1972 with similar clailas for the first
five months of 1971 substantiates this point. If a fairly constant degree
of inflation can be assured in these percentage claims, the figures show
a slowing down of the rates of expansion in most provinces, as follows:
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Percentage Increase
Jan-Mar 72
over
Jan-Mar 71
Jan-May 71
over
Jan-May 70
Heilungkia
ng 6.1
a
Kirin
13.5
15.7
Liaoning
11.1
15.4
Hopeh
10.5
a
Hunan
8
14
Shansi
13
34
Shantung
15+
17.8b
Anhwei
II C
21.5d
Chekiang
12.1
15.6
Kiangsi
16+
24
Kwangsi
18.4
20.8
Szechwan
20
30+
Yunnan
22.9
13.7a
Shensi
26.1
18
Kansu
14.9
59
City
Shanghai
6
18.7
Peking
9.7
25
Tientsin
14.4
11.4
a. Not reported,
b. Jan-Aug 71 over Jan-Aug 70.
C. Jan-Apr 72 over Jan-Apr 71.
d. Jan-Jun 71 over Jan-Jun 70.
25. The first half of 1972 has been marked by a series of campaigns
tightening the reins on enterprise management. Part of this is the old Soviet
practice of warning managers that they must increase output rapidly but
not at the expense of anything else. Thus Peking is striving to step up
the pace of production while at the same time cautioning factory managers
that the quality of product must be raised and the consumption of raw
materials lowered. Peking has also revived the problem of conscientious
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recordkeeping and accurate statistical reporting - a problem highlighted by
Premier Chou En-lai in a recent interview. Chou indicated that few aggregate
economic statistics are likely to be published soon because efforts to
reconstruct a reliable statistical apparatus have not been entirely successful.
Construction on a Fast Track
26. The most solid evidence of China's industrial advance is to be
found in its impressive program for the construction of new industrial
facilities. This construction program provides evidence of rising output in
the steel, cement, avid other basic industries; more importantly, it is also
proof of greatly enhanced production potential for the remainder of the
Fourth Five-Year Plan period. In the absence of a return to hare-brained
economic policies or the outbreak of major war, these new facilities being
commissioned or under construction are a guarantor of considerable
quantitative progress. Furthermore, the technological level of many of these
plants is up to world standards and, in any event, the new capacity is steadily
raising the average level of Chinese industrial technology.
27. In the first half of 1972, the Chinese have been building or
expanding a number of large plants that will greatly enlarge the capacity
of basic industries - iron and steel complexes, petroleum refineries,
aluminum plants, electric powerplants and power grids, and cement plants.
The Chinese are continuing negotiations with Japan and West European
countries for the purchase of equipment for additional installations. Several
contracts have been signed so far in 1972, and others will follow. Purchases
for the chemical industry are at the top of the shopping list - particularly
plants to produce synthetic fibers, fertilizers, and petrochemical products.
28. China's military construction program has shown no signs of
slowing down in 1972. Work is continuing on new plants to produce both
conventional and advanced weapons. Several new shipyards are under
construction, and about 10 to 15 jet-capable airfields are being built each
year. The Chinese are continuing to build large underground facilities to
shelter and service aircraft and naval vessels. Civil defense shelters are being
built in many urban areas; some consist of elaborate tunnel networks that
can be used to shelter large segments of the population in prime target
areas.
Agriculture in the First Half of 1972
29. No major developments shifted the course of agriculture in the
first half of 1972. Even though precise figures are not available, industrial
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inputs into the agricultural sector clearly rose by a substantial amount over
the corresponding period of 1971. Increased supplies of chemical fertilizers
are based on increased domestic production, particularly from local plants;
imports of chemical fertilizer are being held to previous levels. Pumps, pipes,
and other equipment for use in irrigation and drainage projects flowed into
the countryside in greater volume, and the Chinese press claimed that
extensive additions were being made to high-yield acreage and that large
areas of wasteland were being brought into cultivation.
30. The private plots as well as private handicrafts and petty trade
seem safe for the time being. Although the official press has sporadically
waged a campaign against the extension of such capitalistic tendencies, in
practice the rural cadres ha""e been enjoined not to interfere with these
activities so long as they are unobtrusive. In the first half of 1972, Peking's
rare denunciations of this facet of Chinese agriculture have seemed
perfunctory.
31. Peasant incomes have been rising as the result of price reductions
for chemical fertilizer and other inputs and rises in procurement prices for
industrial crops especially. These price changes benefit mainly the peasants
in the richer communes and brigades and widen the already considerable
differentials in rural incomes.
32. Preli unary indications are that the spring crops in 1972 will be
at least average. These crops provide about one-third of China's grain. Overall
agricultural production in 1972 probably will exceed production in 1971
by a good margin simply because of the increase in industrial inputs. Given
better than average weather, production in 1972 could be appreciably above
1971 levels. Finally, the Chinese may now be entering a period when their
investment in water control measures will begin to pay off handsomely.
Foreign Trade in the First Half of 1972
33. To judge from the increased pace of foreign trade in the first
half of 1972, China's total trade turnover in 1972 will increase substantially
over the $4.6 billion level of 1971 to at least $5.2 billion. A large part
of the increase in dollar value - perhaps as much as one-half - will result
from the revaluation of major world currencies in December 1971.
Four-fifths of China's trade will continue to be with non-Communist
countries. An essential element will again be the earning of perhaps $800
million net from commercial and financial activities in Hong Kong(3) which
will be used to offset substantial trade deficits with Japan, Western Europe,
3. Perhaps $500 million from provisioning Hong Kong, $150 million from goods sent
to Hong Kong for re-export, and $150 million from remittances of overseas Chinese
and Peking-owned enterprises.
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and Canada. China's interest in the Third World will bring continued
expansion in trade with the less developed countries. Numerous trade and
aid agreements recently have been signed with Latin American, African,
and Near Eastern countries. Sino-Soviet trade will continue to rise from
its $45 million nadir in 1970, perhaps reaching $200 million to $250 million.
34. In 1971, Peking had to put a rein on imports in order to bring
exports back in line with imports. In contrast, in 1972 the growth in imports
is likely to match the growth in exports. Grain and machinery will lead
the expansion in imports; metals and fertilizer deliveries probably will show
little change. On the export side, foodstuffs, textiles, and light manufactures
will continue to be China's big foreign exchange earners.
US-China Trade: A New Era
35. Direct trade between China and the United States occurred in
1972 for the first time in more than two decades. China's leaders indicated
in the Shanghai communique that they also understood the bridge-building
qualities of bilateral commercial relations. The first evidence of serious
Chinese intent to facilitate expanded trade came with the invitation of some
40 Americans to the Spring Canton Fair. The earlier sale to China by RCA
of a communications satellite ground station for $2.9 million wLs directly
related to President Nixon's visit.
36. Two-way trade between China and the United States in 1972 may
be $40 million to $50 million. US imports in the first quarter this year -
all via third countries - totaled $9.2 million, compared with a total of
$5 million in 1971. In the future, Chinese goods will increasingly be
provided under direct contract with Peking's state trading firms. US
purchases at the Canton Fair were in the $5 million to $10 million range.
Goods imported from the PRC have included metals, specialty foods,
bristles, silks, carpets, and other handicrafts.
37. Future developments in the trade relationship depend heavily on
policy decisions by both countries. On-going discussions with Boeing,
Lockheed, and Douglas illustrate China's keen interest in high-performance
aircraft. The form and timing of Peking's purchase decision, however, are
likely to reflect a weighing of political objectives as much as its desire to
acquire high-technology items from the United States. Business and banking
delegations may be invited to China this summer, and a larger US delegation
to the Fall Canton Fair seems likely.
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS AS OF MID-1972
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Chemical fertilizers
(million metric tons
of product weight)
2.86 6.86 9,3 11.0 9.0 6.0 5.5 7.3
0.4 1.9 3.0 3.1 3.5 2.4 3.1 4.9
0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.5 1.4 2.1 2.9
0.2 1.1 1,6 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0
13.7 28.3 30 33 38 30 25 35
0 7.5 16.0 19.4 15 1 14 16
20 167 350 500 600 100 25 25
5.8 7.3 11 17 23 3 4,0 5.9
3.83 5.05 5.7 7.5 5.8 4.0 4.2 4.5
CHINA:
ECONOMIC INDICATORS AS Or MID-1972
1952
GNP (billion 1970 US $)
Population, mid-year
59
1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
82 95 92 89 72 79 82
(million persons)
Per capita GNP
(1970 US $)
Grain (million metric
tons)
Cotton (million metric
tons)
Industrial production
index (1957 = 100)
Crude steel (million
metric tons)
Coal (million metric
tons)
570 642 658 674 689 701 710 721
154 185 200 165 160 160 175-180 175-180
1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0
51 100 131 166 161-163 107-110 108-113 1;9-125
66.5 130.7 230 300 280 170 180 190
Electric power (billion
kilowatt hours) -.3 19.3 28 42 47 31 30 33
Crude oil (million
metric tons)
Cement (million metric
tons)
Imports 1.01 1.44 1.82 2.06 2.03 1.49 1.15 1.20
Exports 0.88 1.62 1.94 2.23 1.96 1.53 1.53 1.57
current US $)
Total 1.89 3.06 3.76 4.29 3.99 3.02 2.68 2.77
f
s
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001700030098-0
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001700030098-0
GNP (billion 1970 US $)
Population, mid-year
(million persons)
Per capita GNP
(1970 US $)
Grain (million metric
tons)
1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
90 97 105 101 100 109 122 128
735 751 766 783 800 818 836 855
122 129 137 129 125 134 146 150
180-185 190-195 195-200 210.215 195-200 200-205 215-220 215-220
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6
133-142 148-161 165-181 134-149 144-163 170-194 199-230 223-258
Cct-ton (million metric
tons)
Industrial production
index (1957 - 100)
Crude steel (million
15 18 21 metric tons)
Coal (million metric
300 325 tons)
Electric power (billion
60 70 kilowatt hours)
Crude oil (million
14 18 23 metric tons)
CHINA:
ECONOMIC INDICATORS AS OF Man 1972
Cement (million metric
11 12 13 14 tons)
Chemical fertilizers
(million metric tons
of product weight)
3.5 4.5 5.5 4.0 4.8 5.8 7.4
1.2 2.3 2.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.3
38 44 48 40 40
26 34 47 34 31
25 50 140 200 240
13.9 Supply
9.6 Production
4,3 Imports
Machine tools (thousand
45 50 55 units)
60 65 70 Trucks (thousand units)
260 280 300 Locomotives (units)
5.7 6.6 7.5 6.9 8.7 11
4.9 5.4 6.0 4.8
Freight cars (thousand
12 14 units)
Cotton cloth (billion
4.8 6.5 7.5 7.5 linear meters)
Foreign trade (billion
current US $)
3.22 3.88 4.24 3.90. 3.76. 3.86 4.22
1.75 2.04 2.21 1.95 1.94 2.63 2.05
1.47 1.84 2.03 1.95 1.82 1.83 2.17
4.64
2.42
2.22
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001700030098-0