DDI SEMINAR: ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ISSUES, 7-9 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000600200001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Seminar:
Analysis of International Financial
Issues, 7?9 March 1983
Selected Readings
GI T-T. ?3-i0 049 ~~!
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This M project is too
large to forward 8 copies.
I am supplying the
first 8 pages which
explains what the Special
Project was.
C1 M 83-10049
March 1983
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Central Intelligence Agency
Nii?VL ANDLM FOR: OGI Seminar Attendees
,4 lcare each of you to the Seminar on Analysis of International Financial
.Issues. The seminar is designed to enhance our understanding of the
international financial arena--the players, the institutions, and the forces
at work shaping events--and thereby improve the quality of intelligence
collection and analysis.
1% feel fortunate to be able to present such a distinguished group -of
speakers on the various aspects of international banking and finance. Their
unique knowledge and insights should go a long way in improving our
contributions to LIS policy decisiorii king in the finance area. We also hope
that the collection of reading materials will be a useful long-term resource
to you.
I feel confident that each of you will materially benefit from this
three-day session and encourage your active participation in and what I expect
will be a lively set of discussions.
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STAT
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appraisals of an analysis inevitably, involves qualitative
policies, institutions and psychological attitudes. In
addition, the relative weight which has to be assigned to each of these
factors varies both from country to country and for each country from time to
time.
With the exception of advanced Western European countries, most debtors
continue to be vulnerale to tenporary fluctuations in external receipts. For
the most part, these countries' dependence on a narrow range of primary
products did not diminish during the last decade; and, as long as corrmodi'ty
prices are subject to violent changes, variations in these countries' export
income are inevitable. On the other hand, fixed debt service commitments of
these countries have risen during the post-war period; they now account for a
larger share of external earnings than a decade ago. This is particularly
true for a number of Latin American economies."
"A high ratio of fixed service commitments to external earnings implies a
considerable short-run rigidity in the debtor country's balance of payments;
and the postwar increase in the ratio suggests that this element of rigidity
has become more significant. When export receipts fall, either due to a
recession in external demand, or because of a breakdown in the country's
supply of a principal export caret odity, the entire irnpact of the fall must be
borne by imports or the country must run a large deficit in the current
balance of payments. The higher the ratio of fixed service
paynents to
external earnings, the greater the strain which a debtor country
may experience when external earnings contract sharply. For example, the
average public debt service ratio of eight Latin American countries, which
amounted to 10% in 1928-1929, rose to 35% in 1932-1933 when, under the impact
of World Depression, foreign exchange earnings were sharply reduced.
In view of the complexities surrounding the likely behavior of debtor
countries and the uncertainty regarding the future magnitude'of equilibrating
capital flows in periods of stress, . . . the capacity
(and willingness) o
external fluctuations, without an economic collapse lapse and without,ta
default on debt obligations, cannot be analyzed in terms of precise
statistical magnitudes. Such
Mess,
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.Dragoslav Avramovic,
Debt Servicing Capacity and Postwar
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Welcome Statement
Schedule
Selected Reading
Balance of Payments and Finance.
International Economics, Lindert and Kindleberger, 1982
The balance-of-payee nts account
I ncare and foreign exchange.
An overview of policy options
Internal. and external balances with fixed exchange rates
International Finance, Financial Management and the International
Economy, Maurice Levi, 1983
The balance of international payments
Eurodollars, eurocurrencies, and international banking
Multinational dimensions of cash management
International aspects of long-term financing
International Banking
International Banking and Finance, Robert D. Fraser, 1978
Institutions
Instruments and doeurrents
International finance centers
The ccmrercial bank institution and its international activities
Foreign money deposits
Foreign exchange
Credit evaluation of country and institutions
Financing international trade
Docurrentary credits
Bank of Arm r i ca
International banking services
International funds transfer
Export incentive programs
Foreign exchange
Letters of credit
Bankers acceptances
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Eurocredi t
Eurocredit, International Syndicated Lending, Capital Market Response to
Credit Demand, Prof. F. R. Massicotte
Country Risks
Financing and Risk in Developing Countries, Stephen H. Goodman, editor,
April 1977
Debt situation of the developing countries in historical perspective
How much private bank lending is enough
Emerging role of private banks
The developing-country debt situation
.Nature and size of developing countries' debt
Panel discussion: private bank lending and the debt situation of the
developing countries
One approach to country evaluation
A survey of country. evaluation systems in use
A.checklist system: the first step in country evaluation
An early-warning model for assessing developing-country risk
World bank techniques for country evaluation
Recent Developments
Euramoney, October 1982
The tremors that threaten the banking system
Portillo pockets the banks
Euromoney, January 1983.
The IMF and central banks flex their muscles
How the World Bank might recycle assets
After Mexico, the regionals are in retreat
How to reschedule a bond issue
The countries of the future don't look so hot today
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Seminar on the Analysis of International Financial Issues
7-9 March 1983
Room 6E13-Headquarters.
Monday, 7 March 1983
8:45-10:15 - The Balance of Payments in a Macroeconanic Context
10:30-11:45 - Balance of Payments Methodology and Analysis
13:00-14:30 - Carmercial Credits and Debt
14:45-16:00 - Camiercial Credits and Debt (Continued)
Tuesday, 8larch 1983
8:45-10:15 - Public Credit Sources
10:15-10:30 Break
10:30-11:45 - Public Credit Sources (Continued)
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Tuesday, 8 March 1983 (Continued)
13:00-14:30 - Country Debt Analysis
Speakers:
14:30-14:45 - Break
14:45-16:30 - Country Debt Analysis (Continued)
Speakers:
Wednesday, 9 March 1983
8:45-10:15 - US Policy Concerns in International Finance
10:30-11:45 - International Financial Issues - The
Commercial Banks' Perspective
11:45-13:00 - Lunch
13:00-14:15 - The International Financial System - Present
Concerns and Future Prospects
STAT
STAT
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V
Wednesday, 9 March 1983 (Continued)
14:30-16:00 - The International Financial System - Present
Concerns and Future Prospects (Continued)
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