STABILITY OF THE PLAZA REGIME

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00457R005200560010-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 1999
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: July 19, 1950
• Content Type: REPORT

~Lr`1J.9it"lt1~I1. CONFIDENTIAL 25XJA
Sanitized - Apprrove For e1C' L'S CIA RDP82-00 ROO
FORMATION RE-PORT CD NO. 1I/__?
COUNTRY Ecuador
SUBJECT Stability of the Plaza Regime
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PLACE
ACQUIRED
DATE OF25X1A
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DATE DISTR. lg TUL 50
NO. OF PAGES 2
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SUPPLEMENT TO
25X1 X REPORT NO.
(3&
25X1 X 1. Ecuador have reported that the greatest indi-
vidual threat to the Plaza regime continues to be the movement led by Carlos
Guevara Moreno, Guayaquil revolutionary whose congressional candidates won an
impressive victory In the coastal area in the 4 June congressional elections. He
and his henchmen have quietly continued the organization of their movement on
the basis of a six man cell system, in anticipation of an eventual military
civilian revolution. The six man groups are made up principally of thugs and
hired gunisien who have no political interest in the venture and will merely attack
pre-assigned objectives at a given moment.
2. Guevara's strength in Guayaquil is now a recognized and publicized matter
counterbalanced only by Colonel Octavio Ochoa, commander of the second military
zone, who is strongly anti-Guevara. He has recently reorganized the intelligence
section under his command and is reported to have Guevara and his chief con-
spiratore under twenty-four hour surveillance.
3. The Guevara movement in the Cuito area is still in the early developmental
stages, however, Gonzalo Jacome and his brother Luis, who appear to be the
principal Guevara agents there, have been holding frequent meetings with Humberto
and Cesar Penaherrera in the homes of Alberto Febres Cordero and Guardia Civil
Major Manosalva. These individuals are interested primarily in enlisting army
support for the movement.
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,
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.contacts In political circles has expressed
is opinion tha
the government's recent effort to nullify Guevara's subversion
of troops in the Guayaquil area by e0c ing the Guayaquil and kmbato infantry
battalions will have little effect. believes that some of the men in
the Ambato batallion have already been won over to the Guevara cause and that
most of the rest will be won over or bought off in a comparatively short time.
believes that Guevara will not attempt a revolution
in the near future because the revolutionary pattern of Ecuadoran history proves
that successful revolts are accomplished either with country-wide am support
or on the basis of a popular issue supported by the civilian population of the
nation. At the present time Guevara'e support is lat%ly in the Guayaquil area.
CONFIDENTIAL
CLASSIFICATION Sam=
STATEEV# 1,K1 NAVY NSRB DISTRIBUTION
ARMY '
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Sanitized - Approved For Release : Cl
Document
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This document is hereby regraded to
CONFIDENTIAL in accordance with the
letter of 16 October 1978 from the
Director of Central Intelligence to the
Archivist of the United
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However, he may attempt to gain nationwide popular support by conducting a props-
ganda program in the forthcoming session of congress.
believes that there is a fair chance that Guevara could stage a
successful revolution in the near future. He has stated that Guevara4z party,
the Concentzacion d Fuerzas Populares (CFF), is gaining support in Quito, Esmer-
aldas, Ambato, Cuenca and Riobamba.
states that there is still a possibility of a strictly military
coup and the establishment of a military junta. The military would take over the
government if the present administration fails to ameliorate the economic ills of
the country or if some other revolutionary force tries to unseat the administration.
Some reports indicate that a military junta would be formed by the following
officers:
Colonel Cesar Alfaro
Colonel Carlos Mancheno
Colonel Jose Felix Vega Davila
25X1A General Ricardo Astudillo (retired)
25X1A Comment Cf. which reported that these four officers would
have cabinet positions in the event of a successful coup establishing Defense
Minister Manuel Diaz Grenades as semi-dictator.
25X1A
The recent congressional elections which gave the pro-administration (Conserva-
tive Party and Plaza's Movimiento Civico Democratico Nacional) a substantial
majority in congress have virtually eliminated the possibility of loss of control
of congress by the administration. It is likely that the administration will not
receive continuous or complete support from the Conservative Party, but the Con-
servatives will probably support Plaza to the extent they believe necessary to
keep him in power until 1952, knowing that the establishment of a Guevara simini-
stration or a military junta might well eliminate their chances for acquiring
the presidency at that time.
It is very much doubted that President Plaza will assume semi-dictatorial powers
in order to halt the tide of such movements as the CFP, although it has been
rumored that he will do so.
Rising living costs and an increase in the seriousness of the unemployment
problem might provide the CFP with a popular issue for nationwide support.
C T A
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Sanitized - Approved For Release : CIA-RDP82-00457R005200560010-6