LETTR TO GLENN DIAMOND (SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R002403920001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 3, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 19, 1985
• Content Type: LETTER

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STAT
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WASHINGTON. D. C. 20505
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Phone: [phone]
19 December 1985
Mr. Glenn Diamond
XOR Corporation
5421 Opportunity Court
Minnetonka, MN 55343
Dear Mr. Diamond:
Thank you once again for writing the Central Intelligence Agency.
I am returning your computer games as there is no interest for such
software at this time.
Although we cannot be of assistance, your interest is appreciated.
STAT
Enclosure
1-36"
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EXEC'U'TIVE SECRETARIAT.
STAT
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STAT
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 r
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November 2?, 1985.- -
Central Intelli1~gge~~nce Agency
Washington DC.~n~0
CORPORATION
5421 OPPORTUNITY COURT
MINNETONKA. MN 55343
[phone]. STAT
Re: Your letter of-12 November 1985.
Thank you very much.for.your response.to__my.note of October
22nd to tho D _
V
support materials. I trust_that you will_see that the CIA: can
g
p
p
the core educated:support .g
the.Intelligence-Community~/ needs.-.:.
Our counter-intelligence simulation has. alraarlu nath rori
Especially see.the PC World survey:This demo
ra
hic
rou
is
?(ounLer-XnLelllgence
wise UW,.as suuu or oeLLer man -znat of NI-L Challenge.
The NFL is:happy'about NFL Challenge! _the.CIA will also be
happy with-an involvement in the next Xor product. The name
can be simply.. "CIA Counterintelligence".
- WeeksTto.-hear-your..comments and suggestioni.T-- '-- - --
Counterintelligence Staff, and the Da or DDCI, regarding
what Xor has in mind for 'CIA-Counterintelligence^, how..we-
???can?work together, and other details.
I would..-like-to have the opportunity to make apresentation.
to you-s'.. your--section chief; the Chief - of the
I also encourage you and/or the DCI or DDCI to contact Mr
.
Bob Carey, president of NFL Properties, for his feelings
ab
t th NFL C
l
'
ou
ha
lenge project. He
s at -_27,2-838-0660.
and a bonanza for the.?public imageand understanding ? of... the
Thank:=you in advance for your assistance in this mat_t_nr_
Sincerely,::
G. E. Diamond
- ..Central Manager
'Enclosures
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PUBLIC AFFAIRS .
Phone: [phone]
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
12 November 1985
Mr. Glenn Diamond
XOR Corporation
5421 Opportunity _Court.
Minnetonka-MN-55343 -
from them directly.
Thank you for writing-Mr. Casey, for whom'I am responding.
I have-forwarded:-your product to the appropriate components,of the.
Agency for their consideration.._If there is any interest, you will hear
Dear Mr. Diamond:
STAT
Public Affairs
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ACTION
TO #14:, Please, prepare, an appropriate.
response.'
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 CORPORATION
5421 OPPORTUNITY COURT
MINNETONKA. MN 58343
[phone]
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STAT
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NrL JViNJ INL I'LICONAL (.OrF'UTLK WORLD AT
LEADING EDGE WITH NFL CHALLENGE SIMULATION
PC WORLD COVER: "JOE MONTANA PLAYS NFL CHALLENGE"
New York, New York, October 28, 1985 - The National Football
League has joined the personal computer world with the
introduction of its officially-licensed simulation of NFL
football, NFL Challenge, which graces the cover of the November
issue of PC World, the IBM PC world's largest publication.
PC World's cover story, "Joe Montana Plays NFL Challenge", gives
NFL Challenge high praise indeed. Says John Bello, executive vice
-president *of NFL Properties, the licensing, arm of the NFL, "We
have been watching the steady growth and rising prominence of
personal computers in our society and felt that the time had come
for the NFL to get involved. And we're really pleased with NFL
Challenge."
David Bunnell, Publisher of PC World, says, "When IBM got involved
in personal computing, it was big news, but it was expected. The
NFL getting into personal computing is unexpected, and it is very
exciting. It-allows PC World to put NFL Challenge and Joe Montana
on the cover."
Brown writes, "... NFL Challenge is great fun. It's been a .long
time since a program has consistently kept me up until 3 in the
morning... Sophisticated simulation games such as NFL Challenge
The November issue of PC World is available on newsstands
nationwide. In-his conclusion, PC World associate editor Eric
might provide the spark that's been missing from the world of
PC's."
NFL Challenge is an extremely sophisticated simulation of NFL
football that uses all of the features'of the IBM Personal
Computer and its pure compatibles. It has many sophisticated
features and features state-of-the-art animated grpahics of actual
football plays.
In the feature article, 49ers star quarterback Joe Montana plays a
quarter of NFL Challenge against Brown in a replay of Super Bowl
XIX. Montana, coaching the 49ers, takes the ball down the field to
score on his first drive, highlighted by a big fourth-and-one
14-yard touchdown pass to Dwight Clark- The quarter ended with the
49ers leading 13-3.
Cc-
T
M
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Brown describes Montana. reacting to the animated play graphics of
one play: ""I need help," he said as he saw the eight rushers draw
a bead on his on-screen doppelganger. "Oh, man. What's he throwing
to the weak side for?"'Pass incomplete."
Montana's reaction to NFL Challenge? "I think it's great," he was
quoted as saying. "I especially like the idea that you can use the
Undo key to see what would have happened if you had called another
play. You don't get that luxury on the field."
CORPORATION
NFL Challenge was developed by Minnesota-based Xor Corporation
under a license from NFL Properties. Says Buddy Diamond, Xor's
founder, "Our crack team of Harvard and Stanford wiz kids was told
to push back the outside of the envelope as far as the IBM PC is
concerned, and they did it. And our package, created by NFL
Properties' Creative Services Division, which includes the
highly informative NFL Illustrated Playbook, is the best in our
industry."
The product is available in hundreds of retail stores nationwide,
including B. Dalton Software Etc., Wherehouse Entertainment,
ComputerCraft, Schaak Electronics, and Lechmere Sales. It costs
$99.95. Said John Dvorak, noted computer columnist for the San
Francisco Examiner, "If there's a computer game worth $99.95, this
is it, believe me."
Brown's comment in his article sums it up: "NFL Challenge is more
than a game; it's a close simulation that can teach you a lot
about football." For the millions of IBM personal computer. users
d i
irat
t
\
e es
e
~~ a ~W ~, N L Challenge is a cream come true.
Q
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Xor Corporation
Summary of Fifty Runs of Vik'ings:at Bears.
Simulation Run October 22. 1985_
results is in evaluating season-to-seasonchange..'..-
To edit to 1985 rosters-for customized simulation i>'
see NFL Challenge User's Guide pages ' 17, .18,;~s;:and 36.
NFL Challenge Simulation Version. Vi 03 ._
Bears won .i~-;. :..
45.0 of 50.0 games played ;~%- a"?"~;';;,
Vikings won 5.0 of 50.0 games played
Average Results from 50 games played
Team Bears Vikings
Points 25 13
First Downs
Rn - Ps-- Pn
3rd Dn Convs
Time of poss
Total Net Yds
Plays - Avg
Net Yds Rush
R Plays - Avg
Net Yds Pass
At - Cp - I nt
Average Pass
Sacks - Yds
Punts - Avg
Return Yds
Penalty - Yds
Fumble - Lost
23
11 - 11 - 1
6 - 13 - 46.2%
35:16
356
64 - 5.6
189
40 - 4.7
167
23 - 13 -
7.0
1 - 5
4 - 39.5
119
6 - 47
2 - 1
Minimum Results from 50 games
Team Bears
Points 10
First Downs 7
Rn - Ps - Pn 3 - 4 - 0
3rd Dn Convs 2 - 7 28.6%
Time of poss 23:59.
Total Net Yds
Plays - Avg
Net Yds Rush
R Plays - Avg
Net Yds Pass,
At - Cp - Int
Average Pass
Sacks - Yds
159
42 - 3.8
82
27 - 3.0
77
15 - 7 -
5. 1
0 - 0 .
Punts - Avg 0 - 0.0
Return Yds 29
Penalty - Yds 1 - 10
Fumble - Lost 0 - 0
Maximum Results from 50
Team Bears
Points 55
First Downs
Rn - Ps - Pn
3rd Dn Convs
Time of pons
Total Net Yd-
Plays - Avg
Net Yds Rush
R Plays - Avg
Net Yds Pass
At - Cp - Int
Average Pass
Sacks - Yds
Punts - Avg
Return Yds
Penalty - Yd-
Fumble - Lost
41
18 - 19
13 - 19
42:10 .
4 - 12 - 33.3%
24:50
213
52 - 4.1
79
22 - 3.6
134
26 - 13 -
4.5
4 - 31
6 - 40.8
127
4 - 34
1 - 1
played
Vikings
0
3
1 - 2
0 - 8
17:50
0
0.0%.
91
28 - 3.3
30
61 11 - 2. 7
17 - 7 - 0
3.6
0 - 0
1 - 44.0,
37
1 - 10
0 - 0
games played
ayed
Vikings
27
32
4 12 - 17 - 3
68.4% 9 - 19 - 47.4%
36:01
639
92 - 6.9
302
57 - 5.3
337
32 - 20 -
9.6
3 - 18
88 - 4-6.
142
35 - 4. 1
260
3 44 - 23 - 3
54.9
9 - 68
8 - 44.3 9 - 42.6
258 245
11 - 93 8 - 74
6 - 4 4 - 4
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A Microcomputer Program for Calibrating Intelligence Analysts
by Glenn E. Diamond, Xor Corporation
"It is likely that most analysts most of the time, are not even aware
of the background level of uncertainty because their ob is to bring
reason out of the chaos, not to study the chaos itself."
-- Fredric S. Feer
Analytical Assessments Corporation
Colloquium on Analysis and Estimates (1979)
Consortium for the Study of Intelligence
A. Generally.
In the intelligence production system, the Analyst could be said to be
a knowledge worker who fashions information from data for action by the
policymakers and decisionmakers of national government.
Analysts, just like fine machine tools, must be calibrated constantly
to assure that their outputs are within acceptable tolerances demanded
by the end users of the product. Surely, a normal.result of all human
analysis is partial error. To paraphrase Bishop Berkeley: To be is to
be deceived.
In each analysis, the analyst uses critical judgments, assumptions, and
logic upon the data to create information in usable form. Rarely does
the analyst have the time, inclination, or bureaucratic imperative to
do these two things: a) Seek and incorporate into analysis raw
intelligence that has been filtered out of collection output due to it
beingg false erroneous, or based on deception as determined by
counterintelligence, or b) Systematically analyze the critical
judgments assumptions, and logic underlying the analysis from a
counterintelligence perspective.
B. Calibration Important.
An analyst out of calibration is susceptible to preconception,
self-deception, and external deception. Analysts are the target of
strategic deception; we know that. Deception is expanding exponentially
now? we know that. Yet we depend on intelligence analyses and estimates
in formulating our national policy.
A properly calibrated analyst will "turn over as many rocks" as
necessary to produce good intelligence product. This is an art; if too
many "rocks" are turned over, the product has decayed past its
half-life, if too few, the product is more opinion than information as
it was fermented from tunnel-vision or myopia or preconception or
premature cognitive commitment (Harvard's E. J. Langer's term).
Calibration of the analyst is an example of integrating
counterintelligence into all aspects of the inteiigence production
system. In fact, the modern analyst must have an "on-board
counterintelligence module".
In a state-of-the-art intelligence production system the
counterintelligence staff analyzes the analysts who 6ve already
analyzed themselves. All collected data should pass to analysis
unfiltered, but, counterintelligence-rated.
C.` The Simulator.
A micro computer-based (hence portable) program can be developed which,
though abstr:.ct in nature can enable an analyst or the analyst's
superiors or counterintelligence to check analyst calibration.
It will present to the analyst a "test pattern" over which the analyst.
can lay a specific analysis for calibration:
1. Identifies data universe of analysis.
2. Uses "n-1, n+1" rule to reach contradiction point.
3. Identifies critical judgments and assumptions.
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4. Uses "disconfirmed disconfirmation" to check logic.
5. Builds "matrix of analyses" off of analysis.
6. Analyst analyzes analysis of analysis with manager.
The result of this activity can produce useful information for the
analyst, intelligence management, and counterintelligence to create
multi-leveled all-source deception insurance. That is what must be
done.
For instance, step one assures that an acceptable universe of data was
analyzed. That implies data of all "vectors' and "scalars", including
negative data, uncertain data, false data, deception data, etcetera.
Step two alters that universe in many ways to ascertain at what point
the analysis breaks down or contradicts itself. This rates the
calibration of the analyst in his data acquisition function, and
especially pointing out anchoring biases. -
analysis; dissects it for the additional tests. The quality of this
dissection is an important calibration check too, since if the checking
is sub-standard the analysis will tend to head in that direction.
be usable as finished intelligence product. Every disconfirming element.
must be reckoned and either confirmed or disconfirmed. Which leads to
step five, wherein all the various possible analyses branching from the
main analysis are elaborated. Of course, absolute disconfirmation (the
disconfirming of all disconfirmations) is an "A" One thing the analyst
will learn from this program is that A's are seldom given.
In step six, with other staff, the analyst grades the analysis and
re-calibrates. A record should be kept to aid in future evaluations of
the analyst's analyses and estimates and to assist the analyst from
.time to time.
D. The Goal.
The major problem in analyst training and evaluation is the problem of
defining the analyst itself. This program ends up there. The modern
analyst in the modern intelligence production system probably needs to
be evaluated not in academic terms, but as the hybridization of
collector, counterintelligence, and collator. The shoe-box gives way to
Arthur C. Clarke's "monolith". And objective and subjective observation
of the analyst-in-calibration would be high-quality grist for the
counterintelligence mill.
Though Don Quixote said "facts are the great enemy of truth" it is
important to state that when in a near-infinite potential data
environment,. the analysis supercedes the data as the fundamental
weakness. A finite set of data analyzed infinitely will yield more
"fungible truth" than an infinite set of data analyzed finitely.
The Analyst Function can be refined and refined. If we analyze it.
The End.
Glenn E. Diamond is the founder of Xor Corporation, an IBM PC software
development house in Minnetonka Minnesota that specializes in advanced
simulation work. Its first simulation for the consumer market the
popular "NFL Challenge",'officially-licensed by the NFL is tfie cover
story topic in the November issue of PC World: "Joe Montana plays NFL
Challenge". Mr. Diamond is a recognized technological thinker who has
made contributions in the fields of third world industrial development
("Export Development Functionality with an Import Substitution Form
Factor for an Optimal Industrial Development Velocity per Increment of
Domestic Resource Costs Employed", AAPRD, 1981) and conventional
deterrence ("Robotic Armored Infantry Command for Ultimate Conventional
Deterrence Along the NATO Central Army Group Front", D&FA-ISSA, 1983).
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