AD HOC INTERAGENCY WORKING MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00220R000500530059-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 14, 2009
• Sequence Number: 59
• Publication Date: February 1, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
HUMINT Committee
HC 85-049
1 February 1985 11FEg 'w a
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM: Chairman, HUMINT Committee
SUBJECT: Ad Hoc Interagency Working Meeting
1. An Ad Hoc Interagency Working Group meeting be held at
1400 hours, on Friday, 8 February 1985 in Room 6N02, for the purpose
of discussing the status and budgetary considerations for the Project on
the Study of Contemporary Soviet Society.
2. A synopsis of the Project and a trip report highlighting the
results of my field survey visits to selected university and research
centers on the West Coast are attached for your information.
Attachments:
A. Project Synopsis
B. Survey Visit Results and Follow-up
THIS MEMORANDUM IS UNCLASSIFIED
WHEN SEPARATED FROM ATTACHMENTS
SECRET
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
25X1
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UUnr1UtNi1HL
HC 84-500
24 December 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, HUMINT Committee
VIA: C/CCS
VC/HC
SUBJECT: Survey Visit Results and Follow-up
1. Background/Purpose. Survey visits were made by C/HC and undersigned
to selected institutions in California in an effort to stimulate detailed
discussion and exchanges on the proposed Project for the Study of Contemporary
Soviet Society, and to assess institutional capabilities and receptivity
To-ward evelopment of competitive requests for proposals (RFP) once funding is
approved. During the period 10-13 December 1964, survey visits were made to
the Slavic Center, University of California, Berkeley/Stanford University, San
Francisco area, and the RAND/UCLA Center for the Study of Soviet International
Behavior (CSSIB), Santa Monica/Los Angeles region. Visits were also made 1
the Naval Post Graduate School and the Defense Language Institute, Montereycto
determine the status of ongoing Government institutional Soviet open-source..
S&T exploitation, area and language training programs.
2. Discussion Summary. Exploratory discussions show a high degree of
enthusiasm for the program by the prospective host organizations visited.
Detailed exchanges with a number of recognized scholars clearly indicate that
minimal academic, as well as government attention is being given to the study
and monitoring of societal trends and domestic pressures impacting on the
Soviet leadership. Substantial and mutual academic support and interest for
the Project clearly exists, particularly since the systematic and programmatic
approach envisioned will revitalize an important field of study that has long
suffered from neglect. Rand/UCLA (CSSIB) has significant advantages for
location and direction of the Project.
3. Survey Visit Findings
25X1
University of California, Berkeley, 11 December 1984 insights and 25X1
related follow-up actions:
(1) Major Discussion Points
o Academic focus on internal trends and impact on Soviet
leadership suffers from neglect.
o Only a handful of qualified specialists are focusing
on societal studies. Main academic effort is directed
toward Soviet international security and policies.
CL BY SIGNER
DECL: OADR
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o Crucial need for Govern/Academic partnership to
revitalize the systematic study and monitoring of
contemporary Soviet societal trends. (Harvard
Project-1950s last major effort.
(Stanford) and other associated scholars have since
been drawn to other fields).
o Project envisioned would stimulate new and innovative
efforts, and draw qualified scholars/students into
field of study.
o Wide-range of potentially significant open-source
materials on popular culture, societal attitudes,
values and perceptions are not being exploited, i.e.,
sociological journals, popular literature, media, etc.
o Should not leave Project management/focus to emigre
scholars alone. Instead, must team qualified emigres
with methodology provided by Western scholars.
Teaming concept would combine strengths of emigre
insights with more rigorous Western scholarship base
of evidence. -
o In-depth and systematic focus should be given to the
following studies on contemporary Soviet society:
-popular culture/social values and attitudes;
-societal optimism/pessimism;
-internal pressures on leadership;
-social stability and elite perspectives;
-"management" of multinational state; and
-domestic links with foreign policy i.e., Polish
events, Sino-Soviet, Afghanistan (vulnerability
assessments) etc.
o Need strong, well-qualified Project Director
(substance/methodology) who is familiar with the
status and relatively limited ongoing efforts in the
area of contemporary Soviet society.
o Need to consult/link Project with available
methodology and data bases of recognized national and
international scholars, i.e, 25X1
25X1
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o Project should include "Advisory Committee" consisting
of recognized outside scholars representing
multidisciplinary approaches. Advisory Committee
members could substantially assist in providing
realistic and sharpened focus to the Project, to
include methodology and substance by conducting a
"brainstorming" session at an early stage of the
planning process.
o Project core should consist of director, qualified
emigres and Western scholars, as well as post-graduate
students to assist in developing research base and
providing long-term continuity.
o Need for periodic direct exchanges between Project
Director and Working Group consisting of Government
consumers to enhance product focus and usefulness
(policy relevance). This procedure would minimize
current misunderstandings generated through the usof
the National Council for Soviet and East European
Research NCSEER) as an intermediary in the ongoing SIP.
o Although initial multiyear funding (5 years) should be
sponsored by the "Government as the catalyst for this
pioneering effort", the envisioned Center should be
encouraged to draw funds from other sources, i.e.,
endowments, foundations. A "Challenge Grant" may
provide the means for longer term self-sustaining
funding and Center continuity. (Note: The
Berkeley/Stanford Slavic Center was the recipient of
one million dollar Rockefeller Foundation Grant).
o The lack of systematic academic focus on the study of
contemporary Soviet society is a topic of concern that
will be raised at the next Joint Committee on Soviet
Studies "brainstorming" session to be held in New York
City in January 1985. Soviet "literature and popular
culture" is a topic that will also be given additional
emphasis during follow-up Joint Committee meetings in
April. C/HC might be invited to participate during
the latter event.
o The Berkeley/Stanford Slavic Center would
enthusiastically welcome the opportunity to
participate in the Project (NOTE: Center emphasis on
multidisciplinary approach toward systematic
monitoring of Soviet "popular culture").
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Follow-up Action
o Continue review materials produced by recognized
national and international scholars and determine
appropriate Project links. (C/HC visits to related
international, as well as national centers to identify
scope of potential contributions and involvement).
o Consider establishment of "Advisory Committee" of
qualified outsiders to participate in "brainstorming"
session and to provide sharpened methodological and
substantive focus to the Project at an early stage
after funding is approved.
o Consider "Challenge Grant" funding concept for
inclusion in the proposed competitive RFP to insure
self-sustaining institutional funding and long-term
Center continuity.
(2)
S
b.
University,
o Coordinate with to determine results 4k 25X1
Joint Committee a era ons on Soviet Society in
January, and consider participation in follow-on
Standing Subcommittee meetin on Soviet ,Lit r
Popular Culture 25X1
to be held in New York, 12-13 April 85.
o Consider for role on Advisory Committee,
and the av c Len er as a potential resource base for
the study of Soviet popular culture.
Duke
N highlighted the results of his collaborative work with
on the Soviet economy as part of the SIP:
o Indicators show deteriorating quality of life in Soviet
society is having distinct demographic impact i.e.,
decrease in male life expectancy, increase in suicide rate,
and rise in alcoholism.
0 Leadership recognizes problem, but efforts to resolve
dilemma have proven ineffectual (problems are largely
systemic). Tax on spirits provide 12-15 % of national
revenue. Government attempts to prohibit or limit sales
would result in shifting the production and sales of
alcohol to the second economy and would have minimal impact.
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o Prefers the use of qualified emigres to conduct surveys.
(Improved control of bias, overstatement, and paranoia when
qualified emigres conduct interviews)
o Detailed research and interviews of
emigres indicate that official statistics understate sales
in private urban markets by a factor of seven. Conversely,
production of meat and milk products by state enterprises
is grossly overstated. Approximately 5o% of the gasoline
for private sale and use is pilfered from the State .
C.
undersco ,
Stanford University
o Soviet Society is the "single most neglected area of Soviet
studies". With exception of Harvard Project, this task has
virtually been ignored. Need for systematic focus on topic
is clear.
o Research on USSR social trends and
atholo
ie
ll ~
p
g
s, as we
s
their impact on the Soviet leadership is both timely an?
important. No major program exists in the country to
adequately study societal trends, and a mass of availa6l e
open-source material is not being exploited. Believes that
concerns are fully justified. 25X1
o Does not see Harvard to be a serious competitor as a
prospective host for the Project, particularly since most
of the talent formerly associated with the initial effort
in the 50s have already left. (No Harvard based Ph.D.
training in this area being conducted. Other universities,
now have more capability).
o While Columbia University has some impressive scholars
i.e., there is minimal 25X1
guidance or Interaction with a talented student body. This
factor undermines a potentially useful foundation of
research.
o While competitive with the Berkeley/Stanford program,
believes the Rand/UCLA Soviet studies program is weak in
assessment of Soviet media.
o Main challenge is to systematically focus on social
dynamics and the impact on the Soviet leadership. There is
a clear need to encourage the interest and training of a
younger generation of scholars toward this important field
of research.
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o Believes that additional effort must be also made to
exploit the emigre insights on the topic. At the same
time, advises a rigorous methodological approach to
minimize the tendency toward "wishful thinking". Agrees
that teaming concept offers the most promise in more
accurately assessing the degree and scope of social
discontent in the USSR, particularly the impact on the
Soviet leadership.
d. Stanford University, author,
and former OSS analyst with an extensive background in developing
methodologies to assess cross-cultural perceptions underscored his support
for the goals of the Project:
o The author of Managing The US-Soviet Rivalry detailed his
experiences an current efforts to assess cross-cultural
perceptions, particularly his work on Soviet leadership
signalling and crisis management.
o Stressed the need for a systematic monitoring effort to t,
better understand domestic concerns and the constraints on
the Soviet leadership, and emphasized the need to minimf'ze
our own cultural misperceptions.
o Methodological approach should focus on the Soviet media to
obtain better understanding of attitudes, values, and
cultural perspectives. The use of Western models and
assumptions in describing Soviet behavior will continue to
perpetuate inaccurate analytical assumptions.
o Encourages continued government/academic partnership in
pursuing Project and lauded the efforts of
Rand/UCLA Center as a prime example of successful
collaboration in meeting this need.
e. Visits to Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), and the Defense
Language School (DLI), Monterey, 12 December 1984.
(1) Discussion Summary
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-Need to stimulate greater academic interest in
Soviet S&T;
-Need to exploit Soviet S&T holdings at
international libraries, (i.e., Hanover, Or
Weinberg taking follow-up action);
-Appreciate IC Steering Group S&T efforts to
enhance CIRC and translation support for both R&
and Intelligence Communities;
-Would use NHCPs to identify useful topics for
student research;
-Support reversal of current graduate training
procedures, e.g., NPS/Language. Emphasizes
research advantage if language conducted before
area studies training;
-Shortage of TOY funds to enable faculty resew +ch
projects in social science areas (Prof Weinber
stated that he could help resolve this problem;
and
-Requests assist in cutting thru bureaucratic
tape to enable hly qualified NPS faculty
member to conduct academic research 25X1
project
(2) Follow-up Action
o Coordinate with Navy HC Backup Member for transmittal
and use of NHCPs for assistance in topic research by
NPS graduate students.
o HUMINT Committee Soviet S&T Steering Group Executive
Secretary maintain links with NCIST to determine
status and progress.
(3)
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o To enhance understanding of Soviet society and
culture, best students and officer classes are given
intensive language training in Russian Cultural House.
o DLI plans call for construction of segregated Russian
language area (village) with all signs in Russian to
encourage more intensive use.
o COL Stovall, CMDT US Army Russian Institute, Garmissh
has coordinated with DLI to insure increase in
language standards for officer trainees.
o Representatives raised the problem of obtaining
current Russian language tapes for use in training.
Numerous efforts to resolve this problem over the past
few years have not been successful.
(4) Follow-up Action
o Assist DLI in efforts to obtain current language tapes for
training.
o Determine means to encourage support and funding for the
continuity of ASEEPL project, and consider for 25X1
role in Sovie ocie y Project.
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LUMP I ULN I IAL
f. Subsequent discussions w
tenter--for the Study of Soviet Int
ithl
ernational Behavior (CSSIB)
. Rand/UCL
A 25X1
25X1
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State, and other scholars
at Rand, Santa Monica, 13 December
1984 highlighted:
o The former NIO, USSR fully aware of the Community's efforts
to enhance understanding of political and social discontent
in USSR, and the relatively limited academic focus on the
topic.
o Since 40s, Rand traditionally in the forefront in providing
policy relevant scholarship.
o Significant experience in interviewing emigres (Rand data
base contains over 800 emigre contributors, and over 350
transcribed taped interviews). Fully supportive of teaming
emigres/Western scholars to alter conventional wisdom in
studies.
o Substantial shift in Soviet-oriented scholarship to the =
West Coast. Rand has largest number of full-time
Sovietologists-12, and number will grow as a result of---
consortium with UCLA (currently 22). See 1985-86 CSSIB
program at attachment 1, 1984 CSSIB Calendar at attachment
2, and Conference on US Soviet Relations: The Next Phase,
at attachment 3).
o Declining national focus on internal Soviet dynamics since
Harvard project in 50s resulted from relatively limited
research funding, particularly in contrast to funding for
military and foreign policies (limited constituency).
o Clear need to upgrade national on Soviet society is reason
why Rand is negotiating with for full-time 25X1
position in February 1985. NOTE: consensus of Working
Group members and various academics that is best 25X1
qualified candidate to serve as Project irector. See VITA
at attachment 4)
o Rand "clipping center", computerized index capabilities and
library infrastructure are primarily oriented toward
effective research support.
o Extensive Soviet open-source holdings are complemented by
broad access to all-source classified-intelligence data
base to support research needs of Intelligence and policy
consumers.
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o Rand would prefer direct Intelligence Community Staff
funding and relationship with consumers and would agree to
serve as the prime research center and subcontracting agent
for the Project, to include collaboration with qualified
emigres. (In contrast, academic community not comfortable
with IC direct funding role and prefers State funding).
o Rand scholars maintain professional research exchange with
a number of international institutes and Soviet emigre
scholars i.e., Israeli academics/emigres (circumvent
bureaucratic obstacles).
during a period when the Soviet leadership is in the
process of diagnosing societal dilemmas. Party elites are
now in the throes of assessing implications and tradeoffs.
Unfortunately, day to day priorities in government, and
precious few academics attentive to this area of study
remains a problem. believes that the network *f
scholars envisioned by the Project is the most effective
way to proceed. (The need to reestablish and legitimize..
sociological studies on the USSR is most timely. We have
yet to establish the fundamental base lines to measure
changes and trends in Soviet society).
underscored his desire to direct the Project,
of scholars. Goal of Rand/UCLA CSSIB is to add course work
to help meet this need. (NOTE: the Rockefeller Foundation
has awarded $500,000 to CSSIB to support its innovative
Soviet studies program).
comparable to Harvard in the 50s to train a new generation
emphasized that there are few sociologists
(2) Follow-up Action.
o The Rand/UCLA program appears to have significant
advantages for the management and direction of the
Project. In contrast to other academic institutions,
visited, advantages include:
-Traditional focus on policy relevant studies, and
largest national base of Soviet area scholars;
-Rand/UCLA Center Director
thoroughly familiar with mutual government/academic
objectives and capabilities;
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(prospective Director) ideal candidate
to organize and manage national network of scholars
toward accomplishment of Project objectives, as well
as establish links with recognized national centers of
academic excellence (minimize parochial institutional
approach):
--MSU/U of M
literature and popular culture);
--Berkeley/Stanford I Soviet 25X1
---Rum Research Center, Harvard U
25X1
25X1
--Emory U -Soviet Media); 25X1
--U of Illinois (Soviet Emigre Interview
--Other recognized national and international
institutions.
-Direct IC funding to Rand precludes potential
complications through use of intermediate funding
structure, i.e., NCSEER; and
-Rand also repository of related classified studies.
o Follow-up Survey Visits:
-Emory U, 14 February 1985; and
-U of Indiana/Hudson Inst, and U of Illinois F__7 25X1
SIP)-to be scheduled.
Attachments:
as stated
HUMINT Commit ee
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THE RAND CORPORATION
rtAn UM
Center for the Study of
soviet Int clop Behavior
1700 main SbsM. P.C. Sot 2170
Santa Mahan, CaWorMa 904064138
NON41ONt ONG.
" /OS7AM
MID
no RAM
compa"Fem
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THE RAND/UCLA CENTER FOR
THE STUDY OF SOVIET
4 INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR
In Odebr 1983 The Rand Corporation and the
UnIwABy of Califonda at Los Angeles established a new joira Center
with major grant BoWance
Behavior. kom the
:t Rochd-'v Foundatio , the Rau/UCLA Canter sup- of
:_.1. Bndl. Ili to the public.
. - any policy and to strengthens advanced research in
this Bent. The Joint program represents a major Imo-
vation in the area of Soviet studies, combining Rands
outstanding research capabilities in Soviet loreign and
military policy with the broad and well-established in-
frastructure in Russian and East European graduate
training at one of the nations leading universities.
Together. Rand and UCLA have more than twenty
faculty and research staff members who are special-
ists in Soviet international belwior, a concentration
of expertise unmatched at any nongovernmental
center.
The Center supports a number of graduate fellows in
} a three-you program adored to a Ph.D. with a con-
centration in Soviet International behavior. The curt-
cdhrn cambirros three elements: graduate courses in
the particular discipline; core graduate courses in So-
viet studios; and unique on-the-job training in
research on the Soviet Union. under the supervision
of Rand staff members. CSSI$ students enrol at ei-
ther UCLA or the Rand Graduate Institute (RGI),
depedirg upon their Palm held, and take care'
courses at both irwtitutes. Participating UCLA depart-
rrnende are economics, history, and political science.
r The RGI offers a doctorate in policy analysis.
Participants in the CSSIB pro ram are expected to sa-
dsfy ** nom Mi degree requirements of their parent
institutions PA. UCLA or RGI). Ito addition they must
successfully complete the following ten quarter
?? U.S.-Soviet relations
'Soviet miWary thought and policy
? Soviet policy toward selected regions
? the Soviet economy and Soviet international
*Sovia polcymaking (economic, political, mil-
?domostk: Panda lour of Soviet foreign policy
?pokY analysis and methodology workshop (2
quertne)'
etrew~ch seminar, involving, use of Russian
b "Pap sources (2 quarwe)
Tit starred courses M will be offend at the RW; the
remaining courses at UCLA. The UCLA campus and
the RGI are in close (15 nilnu e) prohdrnity.
Participants in the RAND/UCLA Soviet International
Behavior program must satisfy the graduate admission
requirements set by the relevant department at UCLA
or by the RGI. It is strongly pnfenad that CSSIB ap-
plicants should possess, in addition to the normal ad-
m u on requirements of the sponsoring institution:
? reading proficiency In Russian
? knowledge of Soviet economics, history, and pol-
itics at the undergraduate level
Otherwise qualified applicants with iradequate
preparation in the Russian language will be required
to complete an intensive language course at UCLA in
the summer preceding entry to the CSSIB program.
The CSSIB offers up to Bye fellowships annually to
selected students in doctoral programs at UCLA and
the Rand Graduate Institute who elect to specialise in
SoMet Ineeational behavior. These fellowships,
to ewable annually, coyer tuition and provide a
S10,0g0 annual stipend. Fellowship awards are con-
tinged an admission to the degree program at either
Institution. Receipt of a Center fellowship, however,
is not a condition for admission to the CSSIB program.
1n the
Mz -,
The Carders researdii
foundations of Soviet mum* at S iMud UO Av' M
its research effort, C" seeks a 0041oe bet (I)
research to enlarge ! Ow broad *t of _acod u,d'
knowledge that supports the srpdp Soviet Mdet
boreal behavior and ) newids -04ddress Mascify
those aspects of SoaiM MIMViot ".aft* t criticdy of*
eel to the cadoct Cf. l *sirt, f~rw, a~r1 Slplo
ore and tec noloy.
terry am" - powlke rlphd bMedetlorhel
Research bore" d ht~lgl~ar can"ie IQ crude tC' ^^! i :: a
? East-West ecomotmk ..haorsi k.'
First and second year fellows are required to under-
take on-the-job training N a research project and can
expect to receive appauidnWaly $4,(Xl0 a year for the
equivalent of three reonlha of Mkime research du-
i% the academic year and stNmmher. Third year fel-
lows working on a dissertation wi be covered by a
eombinnation of Center and Rand Corporation contract
funds and can expect to racage an average of
Si5.Ol for the year.
The CSSIS draws upon a stag at Rand and UCLA with
extensive academic and governmaht arpaiahce In
the field of Soviet international behavior. SUN
members offer courses at each others Y edumions and
conduct research across a broad range of topics bow-
ing on Soviet international behavior. Rand and UCLA
specialists in Soviet affairs include:
Anther Alexamdw Economics Dept., Rand: Soviet mill-.Lary economics
Akaamdsr Manley Political Science Dept., Rand; So-
viet foreign policy and East European politics
jumi Aamael Political Science Dept., Rand (begin-
ning January 1985); Soviet politics and foreign policy
Kee" Balles History Dept, UCL ; Soviet history
Abraham Becher Economics Dept., Rand; Soviet
economics and foreign economic relations
David Cane" Political Science Dept., UCLA; Soviet
politics and foreign Paw
Keith Crane Economics Dept., Rand; Soviet and East
European economics
frauds Fok"ama Political Science Dept., Rand; So-
viet foreign and military poky
Mary Gsioae Political Science Dept, Rand; Sonnet
politics and foreign policy
Rees C:Nemee-er Political Science Dept., Rand.; So-
viet military policy
A meld Morel I Political Science Dept., Rand; Sevist
politics, foreign and milleery policy
A. Rea pMmem Political Science Dept., Rand; go,'
European politics and So t t-East bwnpw relatiutM :,
thmem Kassel Political Science Dept, Rand; Soviet -,
ence and technology policy
Romani Ke&rwalca Palrel Science Dept., UCLA; So-
viet politics, foreign and military Poky
r 'i . lei.
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I M=mn::dfl
SAND/UCLA
Center for the Study of
Soviet International Behavior
1984 CSSIB CALENDAR
January 23
Steven Meyer, Professor of Political Science at Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, conducted a seminar on "Soviet Theater Nuclear Forces: Doctrine
and Missions." The Rand Corporation.
February 1
Hou Zitong, a Chinese specialist on the Soviet Union attached to the PRC
Embassy in Washington, made a presentation on the state of Sino-Soviet relation..
The Rand Corporation.
February 16
Maurie Eisenstein, ACDA representative on the U.S. START delegation,
gave a briefing on the status of the negotiations and conducted a dialogue
on future prospects. The Rand Corporation.
April 3 - Luncheon Seminar
Arnold Horelick discussed "U.S.-Soviet Relations and Prospects for 1984"
following his trip to Moscow where he participated in meetings with Soviet
specialists on strategy and arms control. UCLA.
April 4
Ben Lambeth spoke on "The Study of Soviet Military Affairs: A Review of
the Field." The Rand Corporation.
April 24
Raymond Hutchings, a British economist specializing in Soviet and East
European affairs, led an informal seminar on his recent visit to Albania and
presented slides covering political and economic developments. The Rand
Corporation.
May 3 - Dinner Seminar
Seweryn Bialer, Ruggles Professor of Political Science at Columbia
University and Director of its Research Institute on International Change,
led a discussion on "U.S.-Soviet Relations: Successions and Elections."
The Chronicle Restaurant, Los Angeles.
May 4 - Luncheon Seminar
Professor Bialer led a discussion of "Stalinism and Reform in Soviet
Historical Perspective." The Rand Corporation.
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June 19 - Luncheon Seminar
Andreas von Bulow, member of the West German Parliament and chairman of
the Social Democratic Party, discussed "Issues in East and West German Defense."
The Rand Corporation.
August 10
The Honorable Giulio Andreotti, Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs, and
His Excellency Rinaldo Petrignani, Italian Ambassador to the United States,
discussed "Soviet-West European-U.S. Relations." The Rand Corporation.
September 14
Bert Salter, Senior Analyst in the Office of Soviet Affairs, CIA, led a
seminar on "The Impact of Soviet Succession on U.S.-Soviet Relations." The
Rand Corporation.
September 20 - Luncheon Seminar
Strobe Talbott, diplomatic correspondent for Time Magazine, spoke on "INF
and START: What Went Wrong and Where Do We Go From Here?" The Rand Corporation.
October 4
Marton Tardos, a member of the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian
Academy of Sciences, made a presentation on "Is Market Socialism Possible?"
The Rand Corporation.
October 18-19 - Conference
The Center sponsored a major two-day conference on "U.S.-Soviet Relations:
The Next Phase." The conference included a keynote dinner by Secretary of
State George P. Shultz. UCLA and The Rand Corporation.
October 22
Klaus Montag, a leading East German specialist on international relations
and chairman of East Germany's National Council of U.S. studies, conducted a
seminar on "East German Foreign Policy and Inter-German Relations." The
Rand Corporation.
November 13
Thane Gustafson, Director of the Soviet Studies Program at Georgetown
University's Center for Strategic and International Studies, held a seminar
on "The Politics of Soviet Oil: 1970-85: Why Did the Soviets Get Into
Trouble in the First Place, and Are They Out of Trouble Yet?" The Rand
Corporation.
November 27 - Fellows Seminar
Arnold Horelick will lead a discussion with the Center's Fellows and
faculty concerning "The Prospects for U.S.-Soviet Relations in the Aftermath
of the U.S. Elections."
December 11 - Luncheon Seminar
The Honorable Guenter Joetze, Consul General of the Federal Republic of
Germany, will present a seminar on "East-West Negotiations on Multilateral
Forces." UCLA.
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RAND/UCLA CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF
SOVIET INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR
Conference on
U.S. SOVIET RELATIONS: THE NEXT PHASE
October 18, 1984, University of California, Sunset Recreation Center,
Los Angeles
8:30 a.m. - Continental Breakfast, Patio
9:00 a.m. - SESSION ONE: EVOLUTION OF U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS
Chair: Brent Scowcroft, Henry Kissinger Associates
Papers:
John Van Oudenaren, Rand/UCLA Center, Containment: Obsolete and Enduring
Features
Harry Gelman, Rand/UCLA Center, Rise and Fall of Detente: Lessons for the
Two Elites
Seweryn Bialer, Harriman Institute, Columbia University, Lessons from the'
History of U.S.-Soviet Relations
Commentators: Jeremy Azrael, Department of State
George Breslauer, University of California, Berkeley
12:30 p.m. - Lunch, Patio
2:00 p.m. - SESSION TWO: DOMESTIC AND ALLIANCE DETERMINANTS OF U.S.
AND SOVIET POLICYMAKING
Chair: Gail Lapidus, University of California, Berkeley
Papers:
Joseph Nye, Jr., Harvard University, The Domestic Environment of U.S.
Policymaking
Dimitri Simes, Carnegie Endowment, Domestic Environment of Soviet
Policymaking
Robert Blackwill, Harvard University, European Influences and Constraints
on U.S. Policy Toward the Soviet Union
Andrzej Korbonski, Rand/UCLA Center, Eastern Europe and U.S.-Soviet
Relations
Commentators: Roman Kolkowicz, University of California, Los Angeles
Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Brookings Institution
A*11-411CA1.7-
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DINNER KEYNOTE SPEECH, October 18, 1984
Beverly Wilshire Hotel, 9500 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles
Secretary of State George P. Shultz, U.S.-Soviet Relations
6:30 p.m. - Cocktails, Petit Trianon Room,
7:30 p.m. - Dinner, Keynote Address
October 19, 1984, The Rand Corporation, 1700 Main Street,
Main Conference Room
8:30 p.m. - Continental breakfast, Patio
9:00 a.m. - SESSION THREE: THE NEXT PHASE: ISSUE AREAS IN U.S.-
SOVIET RELATIONS
Chair: Larry Caldwell, Occidental College
Papers:
Abraham Becker, Rand/UCLA Center, Issues in U.S.-Soviet Economic
Relations
Frank Fukuyama, Rand/UCLA Center, U.S.-Soviet Interactions in the
Third World
Arnold Horelick and Edward Warner, Rand/UCLA Center, The Military
Competition and Arms Control
Commentators: Vladimir Treml, University of California, Berkeley
Dennis Ross, University of California, Berkeley
Strobe Talbott, Time Magazine
12:30 p.m. - Lunch, patio
2:00 p.m. - SESSION FOUR: THE NEXT PHASE: ALTERNATIVE FRAMEWORKS
FOR MANAGING U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS
Chair: Alexander Dallin, Stanford University
Papers:
William Hyland, Council on Foreign Relations, The U.S. and U.S.S.R.:
Rebuilding Relations
Richard Pipes, Harvard University, Survival Is Not Enough
Marshall Shulman, Harriman Institute, Columbia University,
The Next Phase
Commentators: Robert Legvold, Harriman Institute, Columbia University
Warren Zimmerman, Council on Foreign Relations
5:30 p.m. - Reception, Common Lounge
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