THE SOVIET PLAN FOR PERU

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87-00462R000100110023-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 30, 2009
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: February 4, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Approved For Release 2009/12/30 ' CIA-RDP87-004628000100110023-9 C",---
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JWARNING
Volume III, No. 1, February 1985
The Soviet Plan for Peru
Overshadowed by events to its north and east - the guerrilla
wars in Central America and the transition to democracy in
Brazil and, ''Argentina - Peru is emerging as one of the most
vulnerable : targets in Latin America for Soviet-Cuban
expansionism. Close to bankruptcy and racked by a savage
terrorist. campaign, Peru is now gearing up for presidential
'elections in , which the leading contenders represent rival
factions of the left. The Soviets, who maintain extensive links
with "progressive nationalists" in the officer corps, are hoping-
that the changed situation after April 14 will provide them with
new opportunities to establish a base in the Andes.
More than 200 Soviet military advisers have been seeking to
exploit Peru's prevailing. statist philosophy and the defensive
paranoia of some, military men derived from a history of conflict
with hostile neighbors -.Chile,Bolivia, Ecuador - towhich it.has:`
'
been obliged to cede: ter
ritory=in pastwars whose: memory is;
kept alive in schools :and cadet courses. And it is no accident that
the trruption'of a`majo ;guerrilla campaign that`has served to`k
undetmine,both3the economy, andppublic+oonfidence`+ooi ictded}ti;
with the inauguration of a moderate ' democratic government
after a period of dictatorial rule. by, leftist .,generals broadly
sympathetic to Moscow and Havana.
,
Peru rarely occupies a prominent place in Western reporting real chance of winning the__ job. APRA's candidate, Alan
on the Latin American'debt crisis. Yet, with a public sector debt . Garcia, is' 'a federal deputy., who models his personal and
of S10.5 billion and' a private sector `debt of S 1.9 billion, it is political tailoring - on his hero, Spanish Socialist Premier
Latin America's sixth-largest debtor nation; and in terms of Felipe Gonzalez, with whom he is in 'frequent contact by
debt per capita, 'it ranks as one of the top four. To be sure, phone and personal emissary. Garcia, now in his late thirties,
Brazil, ? Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela and Chile, all have has a good chance of winning the election. His party won a
heavier debt burdens. Unlike these countries, however, Peru majority of the vote in the muncipal polls in 1983.
distinguished itself just six months ago by ceasing to service its
foreign debt; and there, is little prospect that interest payments
envenomed political campaign now under way inthe run-up to'
the April polls
Anti-Americanism is becoming one of the guiding themes in
that campaign:-, Uncle Sam is being flayed for all the familiar
reasons and for some that are moreidiosyncratic -For example,
tional adversaries,': Chile and Ecuador. More 'important? the`
an ti-drug campaign -that is being pursued with increasing deter
urination by the Reagan administration, is less than welcome
'
rural area
s whose economies have Become-geared to coca
production Indeed, some U.S. experts"believe that for the past
two years Peru has been producing up to halfofthe raw mater
Resurgence ' of: the' left
The ,brightening prospects for the 'Marx st left `- an
its foothold in'the Peruvian armed forces - must be understood
against the backdrop of a long tradition of revolutionary
activity. In the 1930s, the Peruvian,idealogue, Jose Carlos
Mariategui, was one of the standard-bearers for Marxism-
Leninism in South America. Another Peruvian writer,
Eudocio. Ravines, the author of The Yenan Way and
later famous as an apostate, also was highly influential in
spreading Marxist doctrine. The Peruvian armed forces were
among the first in the continent to establish senior war colleges
(escuelas superiores de guerra) to provide nationalist-oriented
courses;', in geopolitics and international economics. From
the beginning (and to the present day) many instructors were
. orthod'o'x ` Marxists drawn from a heavily left-politicized
university ,environment.
Peru is also the birthplace of APRA, the acronym for the
Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana [American Popular
Revolutionary, Alliance]-. . Founded by the exiled Victor Raul
Hays de'la Tone, a first=hand observer of Meiuco's revolution-
aryconvulsions in the 1920s, =APRA; always{ lias been on the
election: But today, the APRA candidate' is the favorite to
succeed centrist President Fernando'Belatinde Terry.
. Of the nine contenders for the presidency
only four have any
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the ........ .:. 10
Approved For Release 2009/12/30: CIA-RDP87-00462R000100110023-9