SCIENCE AND WEAPONS DAILY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86R00254R000301730001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 28, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate ofe IOD secret
'
)\ Intelligence
ILLEGIB
Top Secret
SWSWDR 85-037
28 February 1983 25X1
copy 2.51
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A reliable source reported that in 1981 the Soviets were
conducting research to develop a vaccine for an AIDS-like
virus to protect military personnel. We believe that Soviet
scientists obtained the virus in African countries where it
occurs naturally.
WARFARE INDUSTRY
Initially, Indonesia probably will concentrate on developing
the capability to produce detection and protective equipment
to provide a defensive capability against the threat of
chemical/biological warfare--a threat it perceives is growing
in the region
COMMERCIALIZATION
The industrial commercialization of biotechnology is being
supported by governmental and industrial programs in many
West European countries. Within six to eight years, we
expect major multinational corporations in these countries to
compete with Japan and the United States for markets in the
pharmaceutical, agricultural, chemical, and energy-related
industrie
28 FEBRUARY 1985
SW SWDR 85-037C
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Science and Weapons
Daily Review
A reliable source reported that in 1981 a Moscow facility had developed a
virus that weakened or destroyed the human immune system. Research was
under way to develop a vaccine for the protection of Soviet military
personnel.
The viral effects
reported closely match those of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS).
AIDS, a fatal disease for which there is no known vaccine or treatment, is
believed to have originated in Africa. Antibodies to the virus were found
in Ugandan children before 1973 and in Zairian patients before 1977. The
disease apparently was transmitted to Haiti, from which it was introduced
into the United States. Originally described as a disease of homosexuals
and drug abusers, cases are now being reported in the general US
population
Because AIDS apparently was introduced into the United States from a single
point source (Haiti) and the Soviets reportedly have been doing military-
related research on an AIDS-like virus, we have investigated whether AIDS
resulted from a natural disease outbreak or an incident of biological
warfare (BW) agent dissemination. We believe AIDS is an unlikely candidate
BW agent because the variability of the virus would seriously hinder the
development of an effective protective vaccine for the user. We conclude
that AIDS in the United States almost certainly resulted from a natural
disease outbreak
Soviet scientists were in Uganda and Zaire between 1975 and 1979, and it is
very likely that they transported the AIDS virus to the USSR for research
28 FEBRUARY 1985
1 SW SWDR 85-037C
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as opposed to the Soviets having developed it via genetic engineering or
other advanced biotechnical methods
28 FEBRUARY 1985
2 SW SWDR 85-037C
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The Indonesian press reports that President Suharto has endorsed a request
from the Army Chief of Staff for the development of a biochemical warfare
industry "because other parties are already using poisonous gas.'
Since 1980 Indonesia has demonstrated a heightened interest in acquiring
defensive chemical/biological warfare (CBW) capabilities. The reported
development of a biochemical warfare industry probably pertains to the
production of detection and/or protective equipment because Indonesia has
almost no capability to defend itself against a CBW threat. Indonesia
perceives the use of chemical warfare in conflicts in Southeast Asia and
the acquisition of chemical warfare capabilities by neighboring states as a
growing threat to the region
Indonesian actions taken in response to the threat include establishing a
nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) warfare center at Bogor, West Java;
training officers in West German military schools as NBC specialists;
training NBC officers domestically; announcing tenders for the purchase of
gas masks for the police and armed forces; and participating actively in
the negotiations on a chemical weapons ban at the Conference on Disarmament
in Geneva
Although Indonesia probably will not initiate efforts in the near future to
acquire an offensive CBW capability, the developing pattern of CBW-related
actions put it amon the nations with a long-range potential for CBW
roliferation.
Handle via
COMINT Channels
28 FEBRUARY 1985
SC-08637/85
3
SW SWDR 85-037C
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KEY JUDGMENTS: WESTERN EUROPE: TRENDS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY COMMERCIALIZATION I I 25X1
Although Western Europe currently lags the United States and Japan in
? biotechnology applications, we believe that recent governmental and
industrial programs to promote biotechnology will enable Western Europe to
become a strong worldwide competitor in health care and agricultural
markets within six to eight years. West European countries having the
strongest competitive positions are West Germany, the United Kingdom,
Sweden, Switzerland, and France. We believe West European companies will
develop significant strengths in marketing products to Third World
countries.
Although many West European firms are pursuing wide-ranging biotechnology
interests, we expect competition mainly from large multinational companies
in markets in which they have been traditionally strong. These markets
include the four top areas for biotechnology applications: pharmaceuticals,
agricultural products, large-scale process technology, and energy-related
applications.
Forecasts of annual worldwide markets for biotechnology-related products by
the year 2000 range from 15 billion dollars to over 100 billion dollars in
total product sales. This market projection is of the same magnitude as
the current world semiconductor market, which is approximately 25 billion
dollars. The estimate of the 1983 worldwide biotechnology market is about
500 million dollars. Better market predictions are not yet possible,
because the critical technical, economic, and political factors affecting
future markets are not yet well understood or defined.
At present the West European countries generally have some top quality
basic research foundations and some industries and engineering institutes
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with strengths in selected areas of application. Nevertheless,
biotechnology developments in Western Europe have been hampered by several
problems, including:
-- Shortage of qualified personnel to conduct basic and applied
research, development, and engineering, caused in part by
emigration of scientists and engineers.
-- Difficult transitions from the laboratory to the market place.
- Relatively few firms engaged in innovative research.
- Lack of cooperation within the European Community.
Both government and industry are working to overcome these deficiencies; in
particular, their support for applied biotechnology research has increased
significantly in the past three years. Efforts to promote biotechnology in
Western Europe include:
-- Public funding that is probably equivalent to Japanese public
expenditures and that is intended to help stem emigration of
scientists as well as encourage support for commercial
developments.
-- Innovative cooperative ventures by industry/government/university in
establishing technology parks and centers for applications
development, and in investing funds.
-- International development agreements.
28 FEBRUARY 1985
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Unlike most US Government programs supporting basic research in
biotechnology, these biotechnology-related government programs in Western
Europe support product-oriented R&D and are directed toward developing
international competitiveness.
Various development agreements have contributed to the international flow
of industrial proprietary information that could affect US sales. This
flow of information and technology is, and probably will continue to be, a
net loss to the United States. However, we believe US technology can be
enhanced through selective international cooperation and exchanges that
exploit West European strengths. We believe also that biotechnology
applications developed in Western Europe probably will continue to be
transferred to the USSR and its allies
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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