DRAFT OF DCI SPEECH ON TERRORISM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R001100010003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 4, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: December 5, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC-06821-84
5 December 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: SA/DCI/IA
FROM: David D. Whipple
National Intelligence Officer for Counterterrorism
SUBJECT: Draft of DCI Speech on Terrorism
REFERENCE: Your memo dated 30 November 1984
1. Attached is the paper you asked me to be responsible for getting to
you to be the basis for an unclassified speech by the DCI. The paper was
drafted by DDI/OGI/TNAD/TAB with a few treatment adjustments by me. The
analysts have agreed to my adjustments.
2. I think this coverage of the points you wanted is excellent. The
paper may be longer than you wanted, but I assume the speech writer will
correct that by picking and choosing what he wants.
3. One suggestion I would make to you and to the speech writer: You
might want to delete the first paragraph on page 5 relating to the possibility
of high tech terrorism in the future. Our assessment, in effect that high
tech terrorism is no more likely to be used today than it was 10 years ago, is
correct but probably classified. That particular paragraph may not really
conform to what you wanted as a current description of "the degree to which
smaller nations are increasingly capable of violent actions." Alternatively,
the speech writer might present the DCI with the paragraph 5 (as drafted) as a
suggestion for an appropriate response to an anticipated question from the
David D. Whipple
Attachment:
As Stated
cc: SA/DCII I(w/Att)
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SUBJECT: Draft of a DCI Speech on Terrorism
DCI/NIC/NIO/CT/DWhipple:map
Distribution:
5 December 1984) NIC-06821-84
Orig - SA/DCI/I w/Att
1 - SA/DCI w/Att
1 - Executive Registry w/Att
1 - C/TAB/TNAD/OGI/DDI w/Att
1 A/NI0/CT w/Att
2 - NI0/CT Files w/Att
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GLOBAL TERRORISM
NO DEVELOPMENT DOES MORE TO UNDERSCORE THE MOUNTING
CHALLENGE THAT THE UNITED STATES FACES AROUND THE WORLD THAN THAN
DOES THE GROWTH OF TERRORIST VIOLENCE. GLOBAL TERRORISM
UNDERCUTS THE SYSTEM OF POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND MILITARY
RELATIONSHIPS UPON WHICH THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES DEPEND
TO PRESERVE, PROTECT, AND PROMOTE THEIR NATIONAL AND MUTUAL
INTERESTS. ITS DIRECT COSTS IN LIVES AND TREASURE ARE
MULITIPLIED MANYFOLD BY ITS INDIRECT EFFECTS. TERRORISM
THREATENS THE FOUNDATIONS OF CIVILIZED CONDUCT AMONG PEOPLES BY
IGNORING THE CUSTOMARY DISTINCTIONS BETWEEN MILITARY AND
CIVILIAN, BETWEEN ENEMY AND INNOCENT BYSTANDER, BETWEEN OFFICAL
AND NONOFFICIAL. IT COMPLICATES INTERNATIONAL DISCOURSE BY
TURNING DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES INTO COMBAT ZONES. IT FORECLOSES
PEACEFUL OPTIONS AND STIMULATES CONFRONTATION, INTIMIDATION, AND
VENDETTA. DESPITE THE INCREASING ATTENTION AND MONEY BEING
DEVOTED TO COUNTERTERRORISM PROGRAMS AROUND THE WORLD TERRORISM
IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND COMMONPLACE. MORE AND MORE
GROUPS--AND GOVERNMENTS--APPEAR TO VIEW TERRORISM AS A CHEAP,
SAFE, EFFECTIVE, AND INCREASINGLY ACCEPTABLE TACTIC WHERE
NEGOTIATIONS OR MILITARY FORCE ARE INEFFECTIVE OR UNFEASABLE.
TERRORISM IS ALSO BECOMING MORE LETHAL, AND TERRORIST GROUPS MORE
INDISCRIMINATE IN THEIR CHOICE OF VICTIMS.
YOU HAVE ALL HEARD THE EXPRESSION, "ONE FELLOW'S TERRORIST
IS THE OTHER FELLOW'S FREEDOM FIGHTER." WE AT THE CIA FIND THAT
NOT ONLY CYNICAL BUT SIMPLISTIC. WE WOULD SAY THAT THERE ARE
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SOME ACTS WHICH ARE TERRORISM NO MATTER WHO COMMITS THEM, AND NO
MATTER HOW LAUDABLE THEIR GOALS MIGHT APPEAR TO US TO BE. FOR
EXAMPLE, WHEN GUERRILLAS ATTACK AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL OR A GUNMAN
ASSASSINATES A DIPLOMAT, WE THINK ALMOST EVERYBODY WOULD AGREE
THAT WAS TERRORISM.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IT DOES SEEM TO US THAT THE CONTEXT
MATTERS, TOO. AN AFGHAN REBEL HAS A REASON AND A RIGHT TO COMMIT
VIOLENT ACTS AGAINST THE SOVIETS THAT OCCUPY HIS COUNTRY. BUT A
WEST GERMAN LEFTIST DOES NOT-HAVE EQUIVALENT JUSTIFICATION FOR
COMMITTING VIOLENT ACTS AGAINST AMERICANS IN GERMANY.
BEARING IN MIND, THEN, THAT NO DEFINITION OF TERRORISM IS
BOTH BROAD ENOUGH YET FLEXIBLE ENOUGH TO SERVE AS AN INFALLIBLE
GUIDELINE, HERE IS THE ONE WE HAVE BEEN USING AT THE CIA:
TERRORISM IS CALCULATED, POLITICALLY MOTIVATED VIOLENCE
PERPETRATED AGAINST NONCOMBATANTS BY SUBNATIONAL GROUPS
OR CLANDESTINE STATE AGENTS, USUALLY TO IMPRESS A TARGET
AUDIENCE.
EACH YEAR, THOUSANDS OF TERRORIST SHOOTINGS AND BOMBINGS AND
ARSONS AND KIDNAPINGS TAKE PLACE IN SCORES OF COUNTRIES. IF YOU
JUST THINK OF THEM AS TERRORIST INCIDENTS, THEY ALL SORT OF BLUR
TOGETHER. ACTUALLY, HOWEVER, THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF TERRORISM
VARY CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE WORLD.
FOR ONE THING, IN MANY COUNTRIES THERE IS VERY LITTLE
TERRORISM. FOR EXAMPLE, IN COUNTRIES WITH STRONG TOTALITARIAN
GOVERNMENTS, SUCH AS CHINA AND THE SOVIET UNION, SECURITY FORCES
ARE USUALLY SO OVERPOWERING AND THE PEOPLE SO COWED THAT LOCAL
TERRORISTS DO NOT DEVELOP AND FOREIGN TERRORISTS KEEP AWAY.
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THE OPPOSITE KIND OF COUNTRIES -- THOSE WITH WEAK
GOVERNMENTS AND INEFFECTUAL SECURITY FORCES -- ALSO RARELY SUFFER
FROM TERRORISM. IN SUCH A COUNTRY, POLITICAL OPPONENTS OF THE
REGIME NEED NOT BOTHER WITH TERRORISM; THEY CAN PROCEED DIRECTLY
TO ARMED INSURGENCY OR SIMPLY MOUNT A COUP. THERE ARE A NUMBER
OF SUCH COUNTRIES IN AFRICA AND LATIN AMERICA.
THEN WHERE DOES TERRORISM FLOURISH? MOSTLY IN ONE OF TWO
ENVIRONMENTS:
-- FIRST, IN DEMOCRACIES, SUCH AS THOSE IN WESTERN EUROPE
AND JAPAN, WHERE THE SIZE AND CAPABILITIES OF SECURITY
FORCES ARE LIMITED AND THE CIVIL RIGHTS ENJOYED BY THE
PEOPLE CAN BE EXPLOITED BY TERRORISTS TO EVADE CAPTURE.
-- SECOND, IN COUNTRIES WHERE THE GOVERNMENT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP ITSELF IN POWER BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE VIOLENT DOMESTIC POLITICAL OPPOSITION OR SCARE
AWAY FOREIGN TERRORISTS. A GOOD NUMBER OF THIRD-WORLD
COUNTRIES FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.
OF COURSE, JUST BECAUSE THE CLIMATE MIGHT BE DEEMED
HOSPITABLE TO TERRORISTS DOES NOT MEAN THAT TERRORISM NECESSARILY
DEVELOPS IN A PARTICULAR COUNTRY. MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES HAVE
LITTLE OR NO TERRORISM. IN OUR OWN COUNTRY THE TERRORIST
INCIDENT RATE IS EXTREMELY LOW, CONSIDERING HOW BIG WE ARE. LAST
YEAR THE FBI COUNTED FEWER THAN 50 TERRORIST INCIDENTS OF ALL
SORTS IN THE WHOLE UNITED STATES -- LESS THAN ONE-TENTH AS MANY
AS TOOK PLACE ON THE LITTLE ISLAND OF CORSICA. THERE IS LITTLE
CONSOLATION IN THESE STATISTICS HOWEVER, THE UNITED STATES HAS
GLOBAL PRESENCE, AND OUR INTERESTS GO FAR BEYOND WHAT HAPPENS ON
OUR OWN SOIL.
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WHEN AN ARMENIAN, SAY FROM LEBANON, KILLS A TURKISH
DIPLOMAT, WE CALL THAT INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM BECAUSE IT
INVOLVES MORE THAN ONE COUNTRY. BY DEFINITION, INTERNATIONAL
TERRORISM IS THE KIND THAT MOST DIRECTLY IMPACTS ON U.S.
INTERESTS. THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN KEEP TRACK OF ALL THE
TERRORISM IN THE WORLD; THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY INCIDENTS IN TOO
MANY PLACES. WE DO,' HOWEVER, TRY TO KEEP STATISTICS ON
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, SO NOW I'M FINALLY GOING TO GIVE YOU
SOME NUMBERS -- ALTHOUGH I MUST WARN YOU THAT THESE STATISTICS
ARE BOTH INCOMPLETE AND OPEN TO DISPUTE BY ANYBODY WHO USES
DIFFERENT DEFINITIONS THAN WE DO.
PERHAPS ONLY 1 OR 2 PERCENT OF ALL TERRORIST INCIDENTS ARE
INTERNATIONAL INCIDENTS, BUT STILL, IN RECENT YEARS, WE HAVE BEEN
RECORDING ABOUT 500 SUCH INCIDENTS ANNUALLY. ABOUT 300 OF THEM
WE MIGHT CALL SIGNIFICANT INCIDENTS -- THAT IS, THEY RESULT IN
CASUALTIES OR IN SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
NEARLY HALF OF ALL SIGNIFICANT INCIDENTS INVOLVE EXPLOSIVE
BOMBINGS--AND THIS IS A MAJOR SHIFT UPWARDS IN THE LEVEL OF
VIOLENCE. INCENDIARY BOMBINGS AND SHOOTINGS ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF
THE REST, WITH A FEW KIDNAPINGS, SKYJACKINGS, AND OTHER ODDS AND
ENDS BRINGING UP THE REAR. DIPLOMATIC AND OTHER GOVERNMENT
PERSONNEL AND FACILITIES ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY HALF OF THE VICTIMS,
MOST YEARS, WITH MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL TARGETS ACCOUNTING FOR
ANOTHER THIRD. THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING, SINCE THESE ARE
THE SORTS OF FOREIGN FACILITIES AND PERSONNEL MOST OFTEN FOUND IN
COUNTRIES WHERE TERRORISTS OPERATE.
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ONE OF OUR MAIN CONCERNS HAS BEEN THAT SOMEDAY SOME
TERRORISTS WILL DISCOVER HIGH TECHNOLOGY AND UP THE ANTE BY USING
-- OR THREATENING TO USE -- CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL OR RADIOACTIVE
AGENTS OR BY SOMEHOW BUILDING OR STEALING A NUCLEAR DEVICE. WE
HAVE NO EVIDENCE, HOWEVER, THAT THE DAY OF HIGH-TECH TERRORISM IS
ANY NEARER TO US NOW THAN IT WAS, SAY, 10 YEARS AGO. ON THE
CONTRARY, BOTH INDIGENOUS AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISTS TEND TO BE
LOW-TECH, EVEN TRADITIONAL IN THEIR CHOICE OF TACTICS. THEY ARE
FAMOUS FOR BEING COPYCATS.
IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST INCIDENTS,
MOST YEARS, WESTERN EUROPE HEADS THE LIST, FOLLOWED BY THE MIDDLE
EAST AND LATIN AMERICA, WITH AFRICA AND EAST AND SOUTH ASIA FAR
BEHIND. (THAT'S BECAUSE MOST OF THE TERRORISM IN AFRICA AND EAST
AND SOUTH ASIA IS INDIGENOUS -- SIKHS KILLING ATTACKING HINDUS IN
INDIA, FOR EXAMPLE, OR TAMILS KILLING SINHALESE IN SRI LANKA.)
THE WEST EUROPEAN TOTALS INCLUDE A LOT OF TERRORISM COMMITTED BY
PERSONS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST, HOWEVER, AND, IF THIS IS FACTORED
IN, RATHER MORE THAN HALF OF THE INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST
INCIDENTS EACH YEAR SOMEHOW INVOLVE THE MIDDLE EAST. MOREOVER,
IN TERMS OF LETHALITY, THE MIDDLE EAST ACCOUNTS FOR FAR MORE
CASUALTIES THAN THE REST OF THE WORLD PUT TOGETHER.
EACH YEAR, THE SAME FEW COUNTRIES HEAD THE LIST OF VICTIMS
OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, ALTHOUGH THE ORDER VARIES. DURING
THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, FOR EXAMPLE, THE FOLLOWING
EIGHT COUNTRIES EACH SUFFERED AT LEAST 10 SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS:
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FRANCE
69
UNITED STATES
61
ISRAEL
32
UNITED KINGDOM
21
SOVIET UNION
16
JORDAN
13
WEST GERMANY
12
TURKEY
11
IT'S A BIT UNUSUAL FOR FRANCE TO HEAD THE LIST; NORMALLY
EITHER THE UNITED STATES OR ISRAEL DOES. STILL, YEAR AFTER YEAR,
FRANCE IS RIGHT UP THERE. WHY DO THE SAME FEW COUNTRIES SUFFER
MOST OF THE INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM? THE ANSWERS VARY:
-- THE UNITED STATES IS DEEMED A PRIMARY ENEMY BY SEVERAL
MAJOR TYPES OF TERRORISTS, ESPECIALLY THE LEFTWING
EXTREMISTS OF EUROPE AND LATIN AMERICA, AND THE PRO-
IRANIAN MUSLIM FUNDMENTALISTS OF THE MIDDLE EAST.
MOREOVER, THE UNITED STATES HAS MORE PERSONNEL AND
FACILITIES ABROAD THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY; HENCE, ITS
INTERESTS ARE MORE VISIBLE AND MORE EASILY TARGETED THAN
THOSE OF ANY OTHER COUNTRY.
-- ISRAEL'S MILITARY STRENGTH COUPLED WITH WHAT ITS ENEMIES
VIEW AS INTRANSIGENCE TOWARD THE PALESTINIAN PROBLEM
PRECLUDES EITHER MILITARY CONFRONTATION OR NEGOTIATION.
CONSEQUENTLY, CERTAIN OF THE PALESTINIAN GROUPS AND ARAB
STATES SEE NO ALTERNATIVE EXCEPT WHAT WE CALL TERRORISM.
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-- IN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS, FRANCE HAS MANAGED TO
ALIENATE IRAN, LIBYA, THE ARMENIANS, THE BASQUES, AND
THE CARLOS APPARAT. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE A GROUP MORE
LIKELY TO RETALIATE THROUGH TERRORISM.
HERE WE COME TO AN ESPECIALLY DISTURBING PROBLEM. THE MOST
COMMON--AND VIOLENT--INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST THREAT WE NOW FACE
COME FROM GROUPS OPERATING OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST. THEIR
VIOLENCE HAS ALREADY SPILLED OVER TO EUROPE, AND PARTS OF ASIA,
AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN SHOWS UP IN NORTH AMERICA. AND, VERY
LITTLE OF THIS TERRORISM WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHOUT THE ACTIVE
SUPPORT OF PATRON STATES. MOST OF MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORIST
GROUPS HAVE GOVERNMENT PROTECTORS AND COLLABORATORS. A GOOD
NUMBER OF MIDDLE EASTERN STATES HAVE USED SUCH TERRORISTS AGAINST
THEIR ENEMIES. IRAQ HAS DEPLOYED THEM AGAINST SYRIA AND NOW
TRIES TO DO SO AGAINST IRAN. SYRIA HAS DEPLOYED TERRORISTS
AGAINST IRAQ, AND JORDAN, AND EGYPT AMONG OTHER COUNTRIES. SOUTH
YEMEN HAS SENT TERRORISTS INTO NORTH YEMEN. OF COURSE MANY
MIDDLE EASTERN 'STATES SUPPORT RADICAL PALESTINIANS WHO ATTACK
MODERATE PALESTINIANS, AS WELL AS TARGETS IN ISRAEL AND THE
OCCUPIED TERRITORIES.
THE QADHAFI GOVERNMENT OF LIBYA ASSASSINATES EXILED
OPPONENTS ALL AROUND THE WORLD USING AGENTS SENT FROM TRIPOLI --
SOMETIMES EVEN ITS OWN DIPLOMATS. YOU MAY REMEMBER THE CASE IN
LONDON LAST YEAR IN WHICH SOMEONE FROM INSIDE THE LIBYAN EMBASSY
FIRED INTO A CROWD OF ANTI-QADHAFI DEMONSTRATORS AND KILLED A
BRITISH POLICEWOMAN. QADHAFI ALSO TALKS TOUGH AGAINST THE UNITED
STATES, BUT RARELY FOLLOWS THROUGH WITH ACTION. HIS GOVERNMENT
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HAS BEEN IMPLICATED, HOWEVER, IN A NUMBER OF CASES INVOLVING
WOULD-BE TERRORISTS IN NEIGHBORING AFRICAN COUNTRIES.
THE WORST STATE OFFENDER IS IRAN, HOWEVER, WHICH PROMOTES
ITS ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REVOLUTION BY ENCOURAGING,
FACILITATING, AND SPONSORING TERRORISM AGAINST ITS ENEMIES --
PARTICULARLY THE UNITED STATES, IRAQ, AND MODERATE SECULAR ARAB
REGIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE PERSIAN GULF.
CURRENTLY THE FOCAL POINT OF MOST OF THIS TERRRORIST
VIOLENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS LEBANON, WHERE EXTREMIST SHIA
MUSLIMS WHO CALL THEMSELVES MEMBERS OF THE HIZBALLAH, OR PARTY OF
GOD, MOUNT TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST ENEMIES OF THE IRANIAN-
SPONSORED ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REVOLUTION. THE HIZBALLAH ARE
GUIDED AND TRAINED BY A CONTINGENT OF IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY
GUARDS THAT MAINTAINS A MILITARY CAMP IN A REGION OF LEBANON
UNDER SYRIAN CONTROL. MEMBERS OF THE HIZBALLAH WERE RESPONSIBLE
FOR NUMEROUS TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST U.S., FRENCH, AND LEBANESE
GOVERNMENT TARGETS, PRIMARILY IN BEIRUT. THEY CLAIM CREDIT FOR
THEIR ACTS IN THE NAME OF ISLAMIC JIHAD (HOLY WAR).
OUTSIDE LEBANON, TEHRAN'S MAIN TERRORIST VEHICLE IS AN
ORGANIZATION CALLED THE DA'WA PARTY, OR ISLAMIC CALL PARTY.
DA'WA PARTY MEMBERS TRAINED IN IRAN HAVE MOUNTED TERRORIST
ATTACKS IN SEVERAL PERSIAN GULF COUNTRIES ON BEHALF OF IRAN AND
ITS GOALS. THEY ALSO OPERATE IN THE NAME OF ISLAMIC JIHAD.
SUICIDE VEHICLE BOMBINGS BY ISLAMIC JIHAD -- THREE IN
BEIRUT, ONE IN KUWAIT -- HAVE CLAIMED MORE AMERICAN LIVES IN THE
PAST TWO YEARS THAN ALL OTHER TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST U.S.
TARGETS DURING THE PAST 15 YEARS PUT TOGETHER. LET ME PUT IT
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ANOTHER WAY: IN RECENT YEARS, FEWER THAN 20 -- OFTEN FEWER THAN
10 -- U.S. CITIZENS WERE KILLED ANNUALLY BY TERRORISTS ALL AROUND
THE WORLD. LAST YEAR PRO-IRANIAN SHIAS KILLED MORE THAN 260
AMERICANS. IN OTHER WORDS, IRANIAN INSPIRED TERRORISM INCREASED
OUR CASUALTIES A HUNDREDFOLD LAST YEAR. EVEN AS I SPEAK,
HIZBALLAH TERRORISTS ARE BELIEVED TO BE HOLDING THREE U.S.
CITIZENS HOSTAGE SOMEWHERE IN LEBANON. I THINK IT IS SAFE TO SAY
THAT IRAN'S FREEWHEELING USE OF TERRORISM IN PURSUIT OF ITS
FOREIGN POLICY GOALS IS THE NUMBER ONE COUNTERTERRORISM PROBLEM
FACING THE UNITED STATES TODAY.
LET ME NOW TURN TO HOW WE TRY TO COMBAT TERRORISM. THE
FIRST RULE OF MILITARY COMBAT IS TO KNOW YOUR ENEMY, SO LET'S
START BY TRYING FOR A MOMENT TO PUT OURSELVES IN THE SHOES OF A
TYPICAL ANTI-U.S. TERRORIST. CONSIDER THIS: HE THINKS HE'S A
GOOD GUY.' HE IS CONVINCED THAT WHAT HE IS DOING IS RIGHT, IS
NECESSARY, IS JUSTIFIED. HE FEELS PRIDE, NOT SHAME. HE WILL NOT
BE DISSUADED BY APPEALS TO MORALITY. HE THINKS WE'RE THE ONES
WHO ARE IMMORAL. AND THE MORE APPALLED WE ARE AT OUR LOSSES, THE
HAPPIER HE IS.
LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EYES OF THE
TERRORISTS: EXCEPT IN THE COMMUNIST WORLD, WE SUPPORT THE STATUS
QUO THEY WANT TO CHANGE. WE HAVE NUCLEAR MISSILES AND AIRCRAFT
CARRIERS AND JET PLANES AND TANKS. THEY HAVE STOLEN PISTOLS AND
MOLOTOV COCKTAILS AND BOMBS MADE OUT OF WEEDKILLER, SUGAR,
FLASHBULBS, AND MATCHHEADS. IN LEBANON WE HAD THE BATTLESHIP NEW
JERSEY AND THEY HAD CAR BOMBS WITH DRIVERS WILLING TO DIE.
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THE TERRORISTS SEE US AS THE REDCOATS AND THEMSELVES AS THE
COLONIAL AMERICAN MILITIAMEN; NATURALLY THEY HIDE BEHIND TREES
AND SHOOT WHEN WE'RE NOT LOOKING; IN A STRAIGHT-UP BATTLE THEY'D
GET CLOBBERED. IN ESSENCE, THEN, TERRORISM IS NOT JUST WARFARE
ON THE CHEAP, IT IS THE ONLY FORM OF WARFARE OUR MILITARY AND
ECONOMIC STRENGTH LEAVES OPEN TO OUR OPPONENTS.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN THERE'S NOTHING WE CAN DO. YOU MIGHT
THINK OF TERRORISM AS ANALOGOUS TO CANCER. THERE IS NO ONE THING
OR EVEN ANY COMBINATION OF THINGS YOU CAN DO TO PREVENT CANCER,
AND THERE IS NO SUREFIRE CURE FOR CANCER PER SE. BUT THERE ARE
THINGS YOU CAN DO TO REDUCE YOUR CHANCES OF GETTING CANCER, AND
IF YOU DO GET CANCER, SOMETIMES IT CAN BE CURED, OR AT LEAST
AMELIORATED. IT IS THE SAME WITH REGARD TO TERRORISM. I DRAW
THIS ANALOGY BECAUSE MANY PEOPLE BECOME IMPATIENT WHEN THEY HEAR
HOW LIMITED OUR ABILITY TO RESPOND TO TERRORISM IS. IT IS
PRECISELY BECAUSE OUR ABILITY TO RESPOND IS LIMITED THAT WE
SUFFER FROM TERRORISM.
WELL THEN, WHAT ARE WE DOING? UNILATERALLY, WE ARE
FORTIFYING OUR DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY INSTALLATIONS ABROAD. WE
ARE TRAINING OUR FOREIGN SERVICE PEOPLE IN GOOD PERSONAL SECURITY
PRACTICES. WE ARE TRYING TO IMPROVE OUR INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION
AND ANALYSIS OF TERRORIST INFORMATION. WE ARE ENHANCING
COMMUNICATIONS AND COOPERATION AMONG THE VARIOUS ELEMENTS OF OUR
GOVERNMENT CONCERNED WITH TERRORISM. WE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT
WHEN AND WHERE TERRORISTS WILL STRIKE BEFORE.THEY DO IT, SO WE
CAN EITHER STOP THEM OR GET OUT OF THE WAY. IF WE HAVE LEVERAGE
AGAINST A STATE THAT IS ENGAGING IN TERRORISM, WE USE IT.
(OBVIOUSLY, WE LACK AN APPROPRIATE LEVER TO USE AGAINST IRAN.)
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BUT UNILATERAL STEPS WILL NOT TAKE US VERY FAR OR PROTECT US
VERY MUCH. COMBATTING INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM REQUIRES THE JOINT
EFFORTS OF MANY GOVERNMENTS. AS A GOVERNMENT, WE ARE PROMOTING
CLOSER COOPERATION AND INFORMATION SHARING AMONG THE NATIONAL
POLICE, SECURITY, AND INTELLIGENCE SERVICES OF MANY COUNTRES. WE
URGE AND SUPPORT JOINT INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS AGAINST COUNTRIES
THAT ENGAGE IN OR FOMENT TERRORISM. WE ARE WORKING TO ESTABLISH
INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS THAT DEFINE TERRORIST ACTS AS CRIMES
WHICH MUST BE PUNISHED AND WHICH PROHIBIT STATES FROM SERVING AS
SAFEHAVENS FOR TERRORISTS. AN EXAMPLE IS THE INTERNATIONAL
CONVENTION THAT MANDATES CRIMINAL PUNISHMENT OR EXTRADITION FOR
ALL SKYJACKERS, EVEN IF THEIR MOTIVES WERE POLITICAL.
ONE OTHER POTENTIAL COUNTERTERRORISM STRATEGY WHICH HAS
RECEIVED SOME PUBLICITY RECENTLY CONCERNS THE USE OF FORCE
AGAINST TERRORISTS -- FIGHTING FIRE WITH FIRE -- EITHER IN
RETALIATION FOR SOME TERRORIST ATTACK WE HAVE SUFFERED OR AS A
MEANS OF PREEMPTING THE TERRORISTS SO AS TO PREVENT A PLANNED
ATTACK. ALTHOUGH THE USE OF FORCE MIGHT BE JUSTIFIED IN ONE
PARTICULAR INSTANCE OR ANOTHER, RATHER LIKE THE USE OF FORCE
AGAINST PIRATES THE OPPORTUNITIES TO DO SO ARE LIMITED AND THE
CONSTRAINTS MANY.
AS REGARDS RETALIATION, WE LEAVE OURSELVES OPEN TO
COUNTERRETALIATION -- AND OUR PERSONNEL OVERSEAS ARE GENERALLY
MUCH MORE VULNERABLE THAN THE TERRORISTS ARE. MOREOVER, IT IS
FREQUENTLY IMPOSSIBLE EVEN TO IDENTIFY MUCH LESS LOCATE THE
PRECISE INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE ATTACKED US. WE WOULD BE FORCED,
MOST TIMES, TO RETALIATE AGAINST SURROGATES, AND THAT IS
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DIFFICULT FOR A COUNTRY WITH OUR VALUES AND TRADITIONS TO JUSTIFY
-- MUCH LESS EXPLAIN TO OUR ALLIES.
AS REGARDS PREEMPTION, WHEN WE DISCOVER THE PLANS OF
TERRORISTS IN ADVANCE, AS WE SOMETIMES DO, IT IS USUALLY LESS
RISKY AND MORE APPROPRIATE TO TAKE DEFENSIVE MEASURES. IN ORDER
FOR PREEMPTIVE OFFENSIVE MEASURES TO APPEAR JUSTIFIED, PUBLIC
PROOF MUST BE OFFERED CONCERNING THE INTENT AND PLANS OF THE
TERRORISTS. MOST TIMES THIS WOULD COMPROMISE THE SOURCE FROM
WHICH WE OBTAINED THE INFORMATION.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE NO EASY SOLUTIONS TO THESE
PROBLEMS. IF THERE WERE, TERRORISM WOULD NOT BE ONE OF THE
SUBJECTS OF MY TALK TODAY.
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