NSPG MEETING ON IRAN-IRAQ WAR/BUCKLEY KIDNAPPING 30 MARCH 1984

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP86B00420R000200450001-0
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RIPPUB
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T
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11
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December 22, 2016
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November 13, 2009
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1
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Publication Date: 
March 30, 1984
Content Type: 
MEMO
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 SECRET NSPG Meeting on Iran-Iraq W4r/Buckley Kidnapping 30 March 1984 Contents Tab A The Revised Talking Points that You Requested Tab B Draft CPPG Paper Tab C Earlier Talking Points Prepared for You by Bob Gates and Dick Kerr Tab D DDI/NI0/NESA Review of the CPPG Paper Tab E Graham Fuller Memo to You Concerning Support to the Iraqis Tab F Recent NIDs F---]Indicating Dissension in Iran Tab G DDI/NESA Memos -- Consequences of an Iraqi Collapse -- Indicators of an Iranian Attack on Persian Gulf Oil Facilities and of an Iraqi Collapse Tab H The Oil Supply Picture (Prepared by Maurice Ernst) -- NSDD 134 Tab I Talking Points on Iraqi Use of Chemical Weapons (Prepared by David Low) DDI/NESA Memos on Iraqi Use of Chemical Weapons Mid-East Press Reports of Buckley's CIA Relationship RFfRFT Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 SECRET 29 March 1984 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence FROM: SA/DCI/IA SUBJECT: NSPG on Iran-Iraq War/Buckley Kidnapping, 30 March 1984 1. You are scheduled to attend an NSPG, Friday, 30 March, from 11:00 to 12:00 in the White House Situation Room. Attendance is limited to principals only; the subjects for discussion are the Iran-Iraq war and the Buckley abduction. This is apparently intended as a discussion session rather than a decisionmaking meeting. 2. At Tab A are the revised talking points that you requested. 3. With respect to the Iran-Iraq war, I am told that this meeting is designed simply to review the actions we have taken to date. 4. I would note that a number of the deadlines suggested in this paper appear to be the product of an awfully leisurely pace. It seems to me that if we are really concerned about a possibly imminent Iraqi collapse and forestalling that then these deadlines should be tightened. 5:` At Tab C are talking points for this meeting prepared for you by Bob Gates and Dick Kerr. At Tab D is a review of the CPPG paper (which is at Tab B) prepared by the DDI and Graham Fuller. At Tab E is a memo from Graham Fuller to you that argues the need for aiding Iraq sooner rather than later. The programs that he suggests include support to the Iraqi air force and USG support for a pipeline which will relieve Iraq's economic descent. 6. At Tab F are recent NIDs that indicate internal dissent within the Iranian leadership--specifically, those items which suggest pressure on Khomeini to end the war now. Page one of the CPPG review notes that "Iran does not seem at all interested in a peacefully achieved )EGRET Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 outcome and is apparently impervious to outside urging." You may want to remind everybody that there is less than a totally united front in Iran on continuation of the war. At Tab G are two memos prepared by DDI/NESA: the first treats the consequences of an Iranian breakthough at Al Basrah and the second is a discussion of indicators of a prospective Iranian attack on Persian Gulf oil facilities and of an Iraqi collapse. At Tab H is a brief memo prepared by Maurice Ernst on the oil supply side of our Iran-Iraq war strategy. Also at this Tab is the recent NSDD on this subject. 7. At Tab I are talking points prepared for you by David Low on Iraqi use of chemcial weapons. At Tab J are two b DDI/NESA on the Iraqi chemical weapons program 8. If I can do more to help, please call. cc: DDCI SECRET 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Iq Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 t. ?) : LorA 17- 1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 r-- r L -- THE WHITE HOUSE 90351 Marc) 27, 1984 MEMORANDUM FOR THE VICE PRESIDENT THE SECRETARY OF STATE TiE SECRETARY OF TIDE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE' THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY THE DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE TO THE UNITED NATIONS THE CHAIRMAN, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS THE CHAIRMAN, JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF .- SUBJECT: National Security-Decision Directive (NSDD-134) on United States International Energy Policy (S) The attached National Security Decision Directive establishes certain U.S. international energy policy goals and objectives. (S) FOR THE PRESIDENT: Attachment NSDD-134 ON-FILE NSC RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS APPLY SECRET DECLASSIFY ON: OADR Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 ~....... ~.. . . SECRET swr SYS Ple 1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON March 27, 1984 !NATIONAL SECURITY VECISIOH DIRECTIVE NUMBER 134 United States international Energy Policy Goals and Ob4ectfves (S) This Directive outlines certain U.S. international energy policy goals. It is designed to supplement policy guidance included in National Security Decision Directive Number 87. Because it is desir4ble to maintain flexibility in order to be able to tailor specific responses to the situation, only broad guidelines will-be presented. (S) 1. Certain U.S. International Energy Policy Goals The best policy to guarantee the continued flow of oil from the Persian Gulf in the near term is to ensure, along with our allies and countries in the area, freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as protection of key oil production and transshipment facilities; and over the longer term to favor increasing the number of alternative outlets for Persian Gulf crude. (S) The international energy policy of the U.S. concerning major oil supply disruptions is based upon four fundamental princi- ples: o Primary reliance on free market forces. Support for measures to enhance energy supplies in an emergency. ? Provision of energy supplies for defense and broader national security purposes under all circumstances. o International cooperation with other energy consum- ing countries through the International Energy Agreement (IEA) and other mechanisms to reduce panic, minimize economic dislocations and assure that the U.S. and its allies do not suffer unaccept- able harm as a result of an oil supply shortfall, (S) Since the U.S. cannot escape the economic and geopolitical consequences of a major oil supply disruption, we must be prepared to deal with such a situation on a cooperative basis with our allies. It is recognized, therefore, that some flexibility is needed in developing an international response to an energy disruption. Different countries have different economic and political environments, as well as different Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B00420R000200450001-0 capaDilities to respond to a. supply interruption. U.S. policy should strive to obtain commitments from our allies to policies that will fairly share the burden and reduce the adverse impacts of a major oil supply disruption by means which accommodate the respective approaches of the U.S. and its allies,. (S) Ii. Implementation of U.S. International Policy Goals Representatives of the U.S. should immediately begin to discuss with or allies on a bilateral basis and with the IE.A the nature of the problem and appropriate responses which tailor each country's commitment to its capabilities. For the U.S. this means primary reliance on free market forces and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). While we must remain flexible in order to be able to adapt to circumstances, the- SPR can be a valuable U.S. tool to offset a world supply shortfall. In most circumstances, an early draw of SPR oil in large volumes will be our best poll impato-a-major disruption. (S) commitments to appropriate policies which include, but.are not limited to:-coordinated stock behavior (bearing in mind the need for flexibility of decision at the time of the dis- ruption), an effective public information strategy. to calm the market and other means to reduce their demand on world oil markets.- In all circumstances we should encourage the major consuming countries to increase stocks prior to a crisis, encourage the expansion of our allies strategic oil and gas stocks as the best means of dealing with a supply disruption, and explore appropriate incentives within the IEA/OECD for other countries to engage in pre-crisis stock building and stock draws whin a, crisis occurs, (S) Because less disruptive alternatives should be utilized first, we should seek to postpone implementation of the IRA emergency sharing system for as long as possible. If activation of the IEA allocation program is required, the U.S. will stand behind its commitment to the international Energy Program. (S) III. Further Work Because domestic oil production is the most secure and best means of enhancing U.S, supplies in a shortfall, I direct the lust our allies. {U) Consistent with U.S. policy as stated above, in our dis- cussions with other ccuntries, we should seek to obtain In order to establish an effective public information strategy in support of U.S. international- energy policy.. I direct the Departnert of State and the Department of Energy to work together to create expeditiously a framework--for-the-- dissemination of accurate information on international oil market conditions and to create public understanding of the fact that -- owing to the integrated nature of the world oil market -- a major disruption and the resulting price increases on the U.S. is inevitably a serious problem for us, and not Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B00420R000200450001-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Secretary of Energy to conduct a thorough assessment of short-term domestic supply measures, including further re- search into the question of spare crude oil productive capaci- ty in the United States, including the possibility of increasing the flow of Alaskan oil southward. (S) SECRET SECIMT Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Iq Next 4 Page(s) In Document Denied Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/11/13: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200450001-0 OPERATIONS CENTER/CURRENT SUPPORT GROUP GD 9(/ ) News Bulletin FBIS Unnumbered Item 29 March 1984 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Item No. 1 (ATTN Cl ':PR STATE !MR ONLY: UNNUMBERED ITEM FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY) NENP CITES KUWAIT! PAPER ON KIDNAPPED DIPLOMAT BUCK LEY NC291046 CAIRO MEAA IN ARABIC 1031 GMT 29 MAR 84 (TEXT) KUWAIT! 29 MAR (MENA) -- THE KUWAIT; NEWSPAPER QPPPS TODAY REPORTS THAT WILLIAM BVc'KL FY { THE' THIRD SECRETARY OF THE AMERICAN EMBASSY IN BEIRUT WHO MRS KIDNAPPED OUTSIDE HIS RESIDENCE -IN LEBANESE C.{PI TRL HAS A IMPORTANT POST IN THE U.S. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY I N THE MIDDLE EAST AND T PT HE JOINED THE !L ` I STATE DEPARTMENT ONLY LAST YEAR. THE PAPER SAYS BUCKLEY IS ONE OF THREE AMERICANS WHO WERE ABDUCTED IN BEIRUT. I T QUOTES WELL INFORMED SOURCES AS SRYINO T== 0 SOVIET INTELLIGiENCE~>1ftETWWOR art'E T!N G IN SYRIA AND LEBANON UNCOVERED B