AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000406280001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 7, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Dhectorate of Top Secret Zi
79-81 . INC/CB
Afghanistan Situation Report
NGA Review Completed
Top Secret
copy Pl Gl 1
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TOP SECRET
SOVIETS TALK TOUGH
at a meeting of the Dartmouth
Conference in mid-April the Soviets seemed
intent on warning that continued Pakistani support for
the resistance might prompt the Afghan regime to take
defensive actions on its own in Pakistan against the
insurgents. The Soviets added that Moscow would not
interfere. The Soviets said they were mindful of the
impact such an attack might have on Soviet relations
with China and the US.
Comment: The Soviets rarely raise the Afghan issue
with the US officially lest they convey an impression
of their vulnerability on the issue. The Soviets
probably believe their message will-get through because
many of the participants in this unofficial forum are
former US government employees. Moscow's claim that
the Afghans may take action suggests that any ground
7 May 1985
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O~~V 1$E; T` U. 11I O
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International boundary
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Road
7 May 1985
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TOP SECRET
raids intro Pakistan will be portrayed as purely'Afghan
moves. The death of Soviet prisoners of war at'''a
refugee camp in Pakistan in late April, or a similar
incident,, could provide the pretext for such a raid.
during the
Saur ~revo ution anniversary parade in Kabul on
27 April a bomb dropped from the window of a
building--probably by guerrillas--killed 6 and
injured about 100 people. An explosion behind
Babrak Karmal's reviewing stand caused no
casualties.
7 May 9,85.;. `.'
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UPCOMING EVENTS-,
Early May Babrak Karmal departs for Moscow; will
arrive in Poland on 16 May for an official
visit.
21 May Ramadan begins.
30 May Anniversary of Afghanistan's independence
from Great Britain, achieved in 1919.
7 May. 1985
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AFGHANISTAN: PRELIMINARY 1985 GRAIN OUTLOOK
by OGI
Widespread rains since late March have replenished
Afghanistan's critically low irrigation supplies,
averting amajor crop disaster. As a result of the
rainfall, we believe that there are now sufficient
amounts of water to sustain winter wheat--Afghanistan's
principal food grain--until harvest. Prospects for the
summer crops such as corn, rice, and cotton are less
promising, however, because the mountain snowpack--the
main source of water for these crops--is smaller than
normal this year.
Background
Afghanistan produces some 85 percent of its food and
industrial crops on irrigated land. Water for the
irrigation system comes primarily from the snow-fed
rivers flowing out of the central mountain regon, and
is augmented by spring rains. Because little rainfall
occurs after April, the rivers depend on snow melt to
maintain their flow during the late spring and summer,
when the demand for water is high. As a result, snow
accumulation during the winter is an important factor
determining crop production, especially summer crops,
in Afghanistan.
Equally vital to Kabul's crop output is the proper
functioning of the country's fragile irrigation
Irrigation o
25X1 crops was observed in every active agricultural area
imaged, providing evidence that normal spring repair of
the water diversion dams (weirs), canals, and ancient
underground water tunnels (karezes) occurred on
schedule this year. In the provinces bordering
Pakistan and Iran where intense fighting has occurred,
large numbers of farms have been abandoned and the
irrigation system is not functioning.
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AFGHANISTAN: SNOW DEPTH, MID-MARCH TO MID-APRIL
1985 COMPARED TO 1984
AFGHANISTAN
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY
NATIONAL CAPITAL
? CITY
APPROXIMATE SOUTHERN
SNOW LIMIT
DEPTHS IN CENTIMETERS
7 May 1985
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1985 Weather Summary
Analysis of meteorological data--although generally
sparse and incomplete--indicates that average snow
depth in Afghanistan during the mid-March to mid-April
period was as much as 40 percent less than in 1984.
Snow depths in 1984 also were below normal. The
smaller snowpack coupled with generally dry weather
during March caused irrigation supplies to reach
critically low levels by late March. This problem was
remedied, however, by widespread, abundant rainfall
from 29 March to 13 April. Some areas received as much
or more rain during this period than their yearly
average, according to Afghan weather reports. In
river
ows are now good to excellent and that irrigation
Preliminary Outlook for the 1985 Grain Crop
Although it is still too early in the crop season to
estimate 1985 grain production quantitatively in
Afghanistan, the recent rains precluded a major harvest
disaster. We believe that the irrigated winter wheat
crop--about 80 percent of total wheat output--now has
enough water to survive until harvesting begins in late
May. The dryland winter wheat crop, grown in'the
northern plains region, also benefitted from the
rainfall.
The outlook for Afghanistan's summer crops--mainly
corn, rice, and cotton--is less favorable. Because of
the smaller than normal mountain snowpack, we expect
many of the country's rivers and streams to run dry
before these crops mature. The resulting shortage of
irrigation water will reduce grain yields and may
prompt farmers to cut back on planted area as well.
The magnitude of crop damage will depend on what stage
of growth the plants are in when irrigation supplies
are depleted. Crops are most vulnerable to moisture
stress during flowering--the stage when maximum
potential yields are determined.
7 May 1985
NESA M 85-10092JX
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Top Secret
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