AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000406110001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 16, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence
Afghanistan Situation Report
16 April 1985
Top Secret
NESA M 85-10070JX
SOYA M 85-10070JX
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AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
CONTENTS
CHANGES IN REGIME FORCES IN WESTERN AFGHANISTAN 1 25X1
The Afghan regime is planning to form an
operational group of ground forces in western
Afghanistan to more effectively counter resistance
efforts.
BABRAK REGIME PLANS ELECTIONS 2 25X1
The Kabul media report that Afghanistan's
Revolutionary Council has called for elections for
a national assembly within a year.
IN BRIEF 2
AFGHANISTAN IN MARCH 4 25X1
The insurgents demonstrated a high level of
proficiency in operations against the Soviets, but
Soviet and Afghan forces continued to press the
insurgents in the Kabul area and in the eastern
provinces.
16 April 1985 25X1
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This document is prepared weekly by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Analysis and the Office of
Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments on the
.16'Apr i 1 ,.1985 :.. ,
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16 April 1985
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CHANGES IN REGIME FORCES IN WESTERN AFGHANISTAN
25X1
25X1
The regime may ave
formed a new 4th Corps in western Afghanistan to which
the group will be subordinate.
Comment: The formation of an Afghan operational
group--though it is likely to be understrength and of
limited effectiveness--is another indication of
preparations for major operations against insurgents in
the west. Soviet and Afghan activity in western
16 April 1985
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SOVA M 85-10070JX
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Afghanistan has already increased in recent months. If-
a 4th Corps is formed, it probably would include the
Afghan 17th Infantry and 4th Armored Divisions in the
Herat area and the 21st Mechanized Brigade in Farah
BABRAK REGIME PLANS ELECTIONS
Afghanistan's Revolutionary Council has decreed that a
national assembly be held before 21 March 1986,
according to Kabul media. The assembly is to consist
of the PDPA Central Committee members, the Council of
Ministers, selected members of the National Fatherland
Front and social organizations, and elected
representatives. No date for the election of
representatives has been set.
Comment: Even if elections are held in the coming
year, the regime is likely to take steps to assure a
favorable outcome. Moreover, most members of the
national assembly will be regime officials, judging
from the decree. The decree and attendant publicity
probably were given impetus by recent press reports
that the Peshawar-based Afghan resistance groups are
near agreement on unifying and choosing a spokesman.
The Babrak regime had promised elections in 1984 but
did not follow through, probably because of the lack of
regime control outside Kabul.
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25X1
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According to the US Embassy in Islamabad, the
Peshawar-based resistance organizations have run
into difficulties in their effort to reach accord 25X1
because fundamentalist leader Sayyaf has balked.
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PERSPECTIVE
AFGHANISTAN IN MARCH
The insurgents demonstrated a high level of proficiency
in operations against the Soviets, but Soviet and
Afghan forces continued to press the insurgents in the
Kabul area and in the eastern provinces. On the
diplomatic front, senior Pakistani officials said they
expect Gorbachev to pursue Moscow's current policy in
Afghanistan but with more vigor.
Resistance Activities
The insurgents suffered a setback, however, when the
Pakistani border town of Teri Mangal was almost totally
destroyed by a fire in early March. The fire broke out
in a bazaar area and burned for several days,
destroying 300 shops and several
depots,
The extent of insurgent losses cannot be
e ermined, and the cause of the fire is unknown;
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25X1
25X1
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The Kabul Area
Kabul continued to be generally quiet, with only a few
notable exceptions. Insurgent bombs caused moderate
damage and killed between five and 10 people including
two Soviets at the Ministry of Agriculture, a KHAD
office, a government newspaper, and in the Soviet
diplomatic area. The insurgents also fired several
rockets that caused little damage and casualties.
Soviet authorities tightened security somewhat after
Chernenko's death.
Kabul's main bazaars continued to be well stocked with
food; fruit and vegetables were trucked in from
Jalalabad, according to the US Embassy. Prices
remained stable thanks in part to Soviet subsidies. No
fuel shortages or lines were visible at the city's 11
fuel pumps. The electrical situation continued to
improve, although power outages still occurred
regularly.
The Afghan-Pakistani Border Area
16 April 1985
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Afghan Army troops initiated a brief firefight with
Pakistani border forces on 16 March after insurgents
seized three Afghan observation posts near the Khyber
Pass border crossing. A senior Pakistani Army source
told the US Embassy that the incident ended after the
insurgents withdrew. There were no casualties.
More Pressure on Pakistan
Senior Pakistani officials told US Under Secretary
Armacost they had concluded from the March meeting
between President Zia and General Secretary Gorbachev
that Gorbachev will pursue present Soviet foreign
policy lines but with more vigor. They expect
increased military pressure along Pakistan's western
border and additional Soviet intrusions into Pakistani
16 April 1985
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airspace. Other Pakistani officials also expect more
Soviet meddling inside Pakistan--largely through KHAD,
the Afghan intelligence agency.
Outlook
We expect the level of fighting to increase during the
spring and early summer as both insurgents and Soviets
take advantage of the better weather. The Soviets will
probably step up operations in the eastern provinces to
block the increased flow of insurgent arms and tighten
security along the Salang highway.
16 April 1985 25X1
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'Top Secret -
Top Secret
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