BULGARIA: ZHIVKOV'S POSITION MAY BE ERODING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000202860001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 15, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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+ Central Intelligence Agency.
Washington, D. C. 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
15 May 1985
Bulgaria: 'Zhivkov's Position May be Eroding
SUMMARY
Bulgarian Party leader Todor Zhivkov,
beginning his fourth decade in power, is facing
some of the most serious political problems of his
long career. He is still in control but some
speculation that he may be
forced to step down within the next year or so.
This memorandum was prepay y East
European Division, Office of European Analysis. Comments an questions are
welcome and should be addressed to Chief, East European
Division, Office of European Analy
Copy/of
EURM85-10093C
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The 74 year-old Zhivkov has long had a reputation for
vigorous health and for virtually unparalleled fealty to
Moscow.
Zhivkov was given less prominent positions than other
East European leaders at the funerals of both Andropov
and Chernenko.
Last September Zhivkov seemed distant with the Mikhail
Gorbachev, who had come to Sofia in part to convey
Moscow's disapproval of Zhivkov's planned trip to West
Germany.
The Soviet press of late has devoted only a few lines to
Zhivkov's official biography, in contrast to better
treatment for his Eastern European counterparts
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Soviet Concerns
Additional factors contribute to Zhivkov's shaky standing in
Moscow:
Soviets have long had
imports about 90 percent of its primary energy requirements from
the Soviets. Bulgaria's severe economic difficulties last winter
might even raise questions about Zhivkov's economic management.
reservations about Zhivkov's strong emphasis on
nationalism, a concern that rose to a peak during
Bulgaria's 1300th anniversary celebrations in 1982.
Zhivkov, along with other East European leaders,
reportedly argued against the deployment of Soviet
intermediate range missiles in Bulgaria in 1983. The
mediocre performance of the Bulgarian armed forces in
1982 Warsaw Pact exercises apparently led the Soviets to
press a reluctant Zhivkov to increase his defense
spending.
Zhivkov alienated some Soviet leaders by favoring his
old ally Konstantin Chernenko, rather than Yuri
Andropov, to succeed Brezhnev. This did not stop him,
however, from distancing himself from Chernenko when the
latter's health failed.
The Soviets may worry that revelations from the
forthcoming papal assassination trial in Rome may
further discredit Zhivkov abroad and implicate the
USSR.
The Economy
Economic relations with the USSR have been showing signs of
strain. Bulgaria's trade deficit with the Soviet Union grew in
1984, and Moscow now wants Sofia to begin closing the qao.
Moscow now insists that its exports of energy and raw materials
to Bulgaria be contingent on greater Bulgarian investment in
Soviet raw materials extraction and transport projects, as well
as on higher quality Bulgarian exports to the USSR. While the
USSR is taking a similar line with other East European countries,
the tough Soviet demands are particularly important for Sofia
which conducts nearly 60 percent of its trade with the USSR and
Possible Successors
Prime Minister Grisha Filipov--widely known and disliked by
Bulgarians for his Russian origins
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probably is the Bulgarian leader most acceptable to the
Soviets. Filipov appeared to enjoy a warm personal friendship
with Mikhail Gorbachev when the latter visited Sofia last
September. 25X1
Filipov was conspicuously absent from Bulgaria's May Day
celebration this year as well as from events surrounding the
recent visit of Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega. The US
Embassy reports that Filipov may have been on a trip abroad at
the time. Speculation that he may have been in Moscow is tending
to fuel rumors that Zhivkov may be on the way out 25X1
Another possibility, Politburo member Milko Balev--often
compared to Konstantin Chernenko--has wide experience and is
increasingly visible as the Bulgarian Communist Party
representative abroad. Yet Balev lacks any significant following
and his close identification with Zhivkov links him to the
current Bulgarian policies the Soviets dislike. At best, Balev
would serve as an interim leader or compromise candidate
Many of the other possible successors, especially the
younger economic technocrats who Zhivkov brought into government
in recent years, lack the old man's stature and personal
popularity. Several also advocate unorthodox solutions to
Bulgaria's economic problems, which would likely make them
ideologically suspect in Soviet eyes
Prospects
Zhivkov's hoped-for legacy to his country--domestic order
and relative economic prosperity--appears less probable today
than at any time in the 1980s. The next Bulgarian Communist
Party congress, scheduled for next spring, may provide the chance
for the still popular Zhivkov to reassert himself. Soviet
pressure for a change will likely intensify, however, if Zhivkov
does not show himself more adept at managing his political
problems and if Bulgaria continues to have difficulties meeting
its trade and investment obligations to the USSR. 25X1
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Bulgaria: Zhivkov's Position May be Eroding
DISTRIBUTION
1 - Roland Kuchel, Deputy Director, Bureau of East European
and Yugoslav Affairs, Department of State
2 - D/EURA
3 - C/EURA/EE
4 - NIO/Europe
5 - ANIO/Europe
6 - C/EURA/EE/SE
7 - DDI
8 - DDI Registry
9 - IMC/CB
10 - IMC/CB
11 - IMC/CB
12 - IMC/CB
13 - EUR/PS
14 - EUR/PS sourced co
15 25X1
16 -
17 EURA/EE/CE 25X1
18 - EURA/EE/NE 25X1
19 - Chrono EURA/EE/SE 25X1
DDI/EURA/EE/SE:
(15 May 85)
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