SOVIET CROP CONDITIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001200160001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 23, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 29, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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2 9 MAY 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
Office of Global Issues
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
SUBJECT: Soviet Crop Conditions
1. The attached memorandum assesses the condition of the 25X1
Soviet grain crop and the impact of recent weather events.
Additional memoranda will be issued throughout the late spring and 25X1
summer should changes in weather significantly alter our assessment
of crop conditions. 25X1
2. This assessment was produced by 25X1
the Agricultural Assessments
Branch, Strategic Resources Division, Office of Global Issues.
3. Comments and questions are welcome and may be addressed to
the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch, 25X1
Attachment:
USSR: 1984 Grain Crop in Trouble
GI M 84-10097, May 1984.
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SUBJECT: Soviet Crop Conditions
OGI/SRD/AAB/
(29 May 84)
1
1 - Ken Froot, CEA
1 - Geza Feketekuty, US Special Trade Represenative
1 - John Lenczowski, NSC
1 - David Wigg, CEA
1 - Elmer Klumpp, Agriculture
1 - David Schoonover, Agriculture
1 - Keith Severin, Agriculture
1 - Terry Barr, Agriculture
1 - Charles Hanrahan, Agriculture
1 - Anton Malish, Agriculture
1 - Byron Jackson, Commerce
1 - Andrew Marshall, Defense
1 - Alexander Vershbow, State
1 - Kenneth Yalowltz, State
1 - John Danylyk, State
1 - Douglas Mulholland, Treasury
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - Executive Assistant
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - NIO/USSR-EE
1 - NIO/Econ
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - DD/OGI, D/OGI
1 - C/SRD
5 -.C/SRD/AAB
1 - OGI/EXS/PG/C
8 - OGI/EXS/PG
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Central Intelligence Agency
v rgban. n c20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
8 9 MAY 1984
USSR: 1984 Grain Crop in Trouble
Summary
Drought in the Volga Valley and parts of the Central,
Central Black Earth, North Caucasus regions, and Volga Vyatka has
eliminated Moscow's chances this year for a near-record grain
crop. However, meteorologic conditions are now showing signs of
change. We believe that the weather will improve during the next
two weeks, particularly in the drought area, and halt further
crop losses in that region. There is still time for the crop to
recover somewhat, and production could go as high as 200 million
tons--5 million tons more than last year's estimated output--if
ideal conditions prevail for the remainder of the crop season.
This memorandum was prepared by
Agricultural Assessments Branch, Strategic
Resources Divison, Office of Global Issues. Comments may be
directed to Chief, Strategic Resources Division, on
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USSR: 1984 Grain Crop in Trouble
Following a good start, the outlook for the 1984 Soviet
grain crop has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks because of
adverse weather in a key portion of the grain region. More
importantly, unless conditions turn around soon, Moscow may well
be faced with a major crop shortfall.
Grain Crop Developments to Date
Winter Grains. Our analysis of crop conditions to date
indicates that a winter grain harvest of some 60 million tons is
likely if normal, weather conditions return soon and persist.
Although far short of the record 86-million-ton harvest in 1978,
a crop of this size would be slightly above the estimated annual
output of 55 million tons averaged during 1979-83. Total sown
area--estimated to be 34.5 million hectares--is up two million
hectares from a year ago, and we believe that the generally mild
winter kept winterkill below average.
Potential winter grain yields have been cut by two bouts of
poor weather. Abnormally dry conditions persisted from mid-
January to mid-April in parts of the eastern Ukraine, the North
Caucasus, the southern Volga Valley, and the Central Black Earth
region. The US Department of Agriculture Attache observed dust
storms and poor-to-fair stands of winter grains during a trip
through the region in April, confirming our meteorological
data. Late March LANDSAT imagery of central Krasnodar Kray also
showed that winter grains emerged from dormancy in poor
condition. LANDSAT imagery of 4-10 May and meteorologic data
indicate that periodic showers in this area since late April have
provided temporary relief, but timely rains will be needed in the
coming weeks to prevent any further damage.
More serious problems have stemmed from a quasi-stationary
high pressure system that has been centered over the Volga Valley
since the beginning of May. The system was beginning to show
signs of weakening when rainshowers occurred throughout the
region on 27, 28, and 29 May. The hot, dry, weather associated
with this system has caused moderate to severe crop stress over
the entire valley, as well as parts of the Central, the Central
Black Earth, the north Caucasus, and the Volga Vyatka regions.
Reconnaissance satellite imagery shows numerous grass fires--an
indication of critically low soil moisture--and poor stands of
winter grains. The total area affected by the poor weather
typically produces nearly one-third of annual Soviet winter grain
output. Crops outside the problem area, particularly those in
the Ukraine, have received adequate precipitation and in general
are developing well. Although soil moisture levels in these
regions are below the September - April averages for the 1979 - 83
period, they compare favorably with 1983 (Table 1).
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Spring Grains. Despite a good start for the second
consecutive year, prospects for the spring grain crop--sown in
Arri1 and May and harvested in late summer and fall--have also
the affected area was delayed at least one weeK because of dry
soils. Plant emergence was uneven as well. About one-fifth of
n r_'%1 A
i no at isk
ng crop is r.
the spr
The outlook would be even worse except that the annual
spring sowing campaign is progressing well and early crop
development outside the problem area, as viewed on satellite
imagery, is good. By the middle of May, planting was running
slightly ahead of the average pace of the past five years. Grain
sown early often flowers before the summer's hottest weather, when
unusually hot, dry conditions can lead to plant sterility and
reduced yields. (Flowering is the stage of crop development when
-
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~
LCUUL D LJ1a11L vu.a.aaa.-+.+.+-,I ?-~- ----- ------
A Preliminary Outlook for Grain Production and Other Crops
With about a quarter of the spring grain crop still to be
planted, it will be two to three months before a sound estimate
of 1984 Soviet grain production can be made. Potential grain
yields can be affected at almost any time during the crop season:
o In May and early June during the completion of
planting.
o In June and July, when winter and spring grains reach
the critical flowering stage of development.
o In August and September as the bulk of grain crop is
harvested.
Moscow's grain target of 240 million tons is already well
beyond reach, however. The principal limiting factors are
acreage and the crop damage already sustained. In 1978, when the
USSR produced a record 237 million tons of grain, yields per
hectare reached a level still unmatched, and the area harvested
was second in size only to the 1977 record. This year plans call
for grain to be sown on 123 million hectares, three million
hectares below the average of recent years, and 5.5 million less
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than were harvested in 1978.2 Moreover, we estimate that this
year's harvested area of winter grains is likely to be at least
one million hectares smaller than in 1978. Winter grains usually
yield about 50 percent more per hectare than spring grains, and
account for about one-third of total grain output.
Even though planned grain production will not be achieved in
1984, a harvest approaching 200 million tons--5 million more than
last year's estimated output--is possitle if ideal growing
conditions prevail through the summer. Indeed, prospects for
about three-fourths of the grain crop are generally good at this
point in time. Furthermore, we believe that the weather will
improve during the next two weeks, particularly in the drought
area, and halt further crop losses in that region. On the other
hand, should the weather deteriorate markedly, as it often does
in the important spring grain areas of the Volga Valley and
Kazakhstan, grain output would fall well below the 200 million
ton mark.
2 This year's plan reflects a continuing Soviet effort to expand
the amount of arable land put into fallow. Although fallowing
sacrifices production in the year in which the land is idled, it
usually results in higher, more stable output in subsequent years
as long as the fallowed acreage is maintained in-the-crop
rotation schedule.
3 The US Department of Agriculture's initial forecast of the
1984 Soviet grain crop is 190 million tons. This estimate is
based partially on trend analysis, and assumes that normal
weather will prevail. It carries a variation of + 20 million
tons, a range that is expected to encompass the harvest 2 out of
3 times.
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USSR Grain Regions - Total Precipitation
September - April
Precipitation (mm)
Precipitation (mm)
Region
1982-83 83-
84 Re
gion
1982-83
83-84
Baltics
413 3
72 Vo
lga-
Vyatka
244
275
Belorussia
401 2
77 Up
per
Volga
214
158
Western Ukraine
280 2
56 Mi
ddle
Volga
109
146
North Central Ukraine
295 3
08 Lo
wer
Volga
171
216
Northeast Ukraine
294 3
29 No
rthw
est Urals
197
272
East Ukraine
194
329 So
uthe
rn Urals
173
253
South Ukraine
175
281 No
rthe
ast Urals
156
235
Moldavia
170
271 We
ster
n Kazakhstan
140
158
Krasnodar
307 4
41 Ku
stan
ay
98
120
Northeast Caucasus
177
261 Ts
elin
ograd
165
141
Western Black Earth
282
237 No
rth
Kazakhstan
143
155
Eastern Black Earth
168
168 Pa
vlod
ar
124
139
Central
295
266 We
st S
iberia
226
274
Al
tay
206
206
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