MOROCCO: RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000102560001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 4, 1980
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/18: CIA-RDP85T00287R000102560001-9
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER
4 November 1980
MEMORANDUM
MOROCCO: RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
U
Internal Scene
Morocco's King Hassan dominates the secular and religious
life of his country. He is skillful at balancing competing
factions and at expoiting their differences to protect his
preeminent position. As a result, there are no self-sustain-
ing political institutions or interest groups that seriously
restrict t his ability to make all major policy decisions.
The King nevertheless does have a vocal and troublesome
civilian opposition. Earlier this year, popular grumbling
about Morocco's growing economic and social problems was
increasing, and Hassan faced the prospect of unrest from
trade unionists, students, and Islamic fundamentalists.
Arrests and preventative detentions of the leading activists,
while they cowed organizers and prevented incidents, seemed
only to build popular resentment and to give Hassan's oppo-
nents--especially the socialist political party--new grist
Over the past few months, Hassan has made a number of
unexpected moves that have helped to defuse the arguments
of the King's political opponents. In July and August,
Hassan pardoned a number of "political prisoners"--some
had been in jail for many years--whose cases had become a
cause celebre of Moroccan and European human rights groups.
The releases included lly all of Hassan's important
socialist opposition. 25X1
This memorandum was prepared by the Near East South
Asia Division of the Office of Political Analysis in response
to a request from the Department of Energy. Information
available as of 5 November 1980 has been used in the prepara-
ti
on of this report. Questions and comments may be addressed
to Chief, Egypt-North Africa Branch,
25X1 25X1
SECRET
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At the same time, Hassan amnestied many oppositionists
in exile and encouraged them to return home. He reinstated
with back pay a number of labor activists who lost their
jobs during strikes in the spring of 1979. The King also
announced a series of economic measures intended to benefit
low-income citizens, such as rent reductions and special
tax measures.
These actions have further fragmented Hassan's oppo-
sition, and helped to foster the image of an active monarch
concerned with the public's welfare. As a result, the possi-
bility of incidents is significantly reduced, and the King
seems in his best political shape in the past few years.
Foreign Affairs
Morocco's consuming foreign policy problem is of course
the war against the Algerian- and Libyan-backed Polisario
Front guerrillas who are fighting for the independence of
Western Sahara. Since early this year, when Moroccan forces
were suffering serious defeats from guerrilla attacks inside
Morocco proper, Rabat has improved its military position and
is inflicting substantial losses on the Polisario. Neither
side effectively controls much of the territory, however, and
neither is likely to achieve a military victory anytime soon.
Diplomatic efforts to encourage a political solution to
the war--mediation by a special committee of the Organization
for African Unity and by interested third parties--appear to
be making little headway. The climate for negotiations may
be improving, however, as Morocco and Algeria both seem increas-
ingly interested in ending the war. Much of the Moroccan
public nevertheless reportedly remains opposed to "giving
up" too much to the guerrillas, and we have also seen no
indication that the Polisario is moderating its demands
for full independence for the territory.
On other international questions, Rabat continues its
professedly nonaligned but generally pro-Western stance.
Hassan is deeply suspicious of Soviet intentions in the
Middle East and especially in Africa. He has been publicly
vocal in his condemnations of Soviet policy in the region,
and he blames the US for failing to take decisive action
to check what Morocco regards as Moscow's advances there.
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Following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Hassan decided
to slow the pace of Morocco's burgeoning economic contacts
with the USSR--especially the large Meskala phosphate pro-
ject.
As chairman of the Jerusalem Committee of the Islamic
Conference, Hassan exercises a moderating influence on
regional issues in concert with other like-minded states
such as Tunisia and Saudi Arabia. Morocco still maintains
privately its longstanding close ties with Egypt despite
Rabat's reluctant rejection of the Camp David peace process
and the criticism to which these ties expose Morocco from
hardline states.
Distribution:
Original Dept. of Energy
1 - D/OPA
2 - OPA/PS
4 - OCO/IDCD/CB
1 - C/NESA
2 - NESA/ENA
NFAC/NESA/ENAA
(4Nov80)
-3-
SECRET
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