CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017000090001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 31, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
31 August 1970
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No. 0208/70
31 August 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Cambodia: Military activity remained light over
the weekend. (Page 1)
South Vietnam: Communist forces are intensifying
their military action. (Page 2)
Jordan: The fedayeen are accusing the government of
seeking to crush their movement. (Page 3)
France - Communist China: Paris may be pushing for
closer ties . (Page
Japan: I-,, socialist leader has asked for a new
grouping of the leftist opposition. (Page 5)
Romania - Latin America: A Romanian trade delega-
tion is scheduled to visit Latin America next month.
(Page 6)
Kenya: The government is seeking a partnership re-
lationship with the country's only oil refinery.
(Page 7)
Iraq: Baghdad and the Iraq Petroleum Company may
resume negotiations. (Page 8)
Guatemala - Costa Rica: Soviet mission (Page 9)
Brazil: Automatic savings plan (Page 11)
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CAMBODIA: Current Situation
0 Princ pal city (10,000 or over)
Population over 125 per sq. mi.
._,..._ Communist-controlled area
Fhnu n
Penh
ey V4n
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*Cambodia: Military activity remained light
over the weekend, with only a few engagements re-
ported.
No additional fighting has been reported since
29 August in the Phnom Penh area, where the Com-
munists had been increasingly active over the Past
two weeks.
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lthe Communists are emplacing Soviet-
made 122-mm. rockets about ten or 12 miles north-
east of Phnom Penh, possibly within range of the
city. Although Phnom Penh has so far been free
from harassment, the Communists could probably hit
the capital with either rocket or mortar fire.
Communist forces--half of whom are said to be
ethnic Cambodian--are reportedly moving freely in
the rural areas of Kampot Province pro pagandizin
and recruiting villagers.
'
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their success has been
somewhat
smite ecause of the peasants' fear of government
reprisals should the Communists leave the area.
In one. instance, however, the Communists were able
to overrun a village; its self-defense force re-
fused to fight because its commander, a National
Assembly deputy, had neither paid them nor provided
them with promised weapons.
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*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Bureau of Intelligence and
Research, Department of State.
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South Vietnam: Communist forces are intensi-
fying their military action in widely separated
areas.
On 30 August, the number of Communist shellings
soared to over 60, the largest number recorded in
four months. Most of the shellings took place in
the government's Military Region 2 and in the lower
delta provinces of Military Region 4. According
to press reports, over 200 soldiers and civilians
were killed or wounded. The Communists have been
planning this upsurge for some time in order to
mark several important Communist anniversaries that
occur during the week of 28 August - 4 September,
including the first anniversary of the death of
Ho Chi Minh.
Communist activity on 30 August had only a
slight adverse impact on the conduct of the govern-
ment's senatorial elections held on that date.
The Communists apparently made no concerted effort
to disrupt the elections, although at least a half
dozen incidents were directed against polling
places in various parts of the country. The Senate
elections were conducted quietly. According to
press reports, 70 percent of the country's regis-
tered voters went to the polls. This is lower
than the 83-percent turn-out for the last Senate
elections in 1967. Voter interest in this year's
contest had appeared relatively low.
In conjunction with the shellings, Communist
terrorists and local forces have increased their
harassment of the civilian populace. Ground com-
bat, however, has remained at a relatively low
level throughout the country, and major Communist
forces have not been committed, with the exception
of some artillery and sapper units.
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Jordan: C The fedayeen are accusing the gov-
ernment of seeking to crush their movement by pro-
voking clashes with them.
Fatah yesterday charged that the Jordanian
Army had launched a widescale attack against feda-
yeen units with tanks and heavy artillery. The
latest outburst of firing followed two days of
clashes in which three commandos had been killed.
Fedayeen leaders at that, time had charged that the
incidents had been caused by elements seeking to
provoke a clash between the army and the fedayeen.
In a hard-hitting radio speech intended to
underscore his determination to go ahead with cur-
rent peace efforts, King Husayn strongly attacked
the fedayeen. He dismissed their charges that the
movement of army units was part of a plan to crush
the commandos. He defended such transfers as nec-
essary for the protection of the country. The King,
moreover, warned the fedayeen that he would no
longer tolerate their insults and accusations. He
said that he had refrained from replying to past
attacks because he did not want to move against
others involved in the battle against Israel.
Husayn pointed out, however, that the situation
had changed and he had to be sure that there would
be nothing to divert the country from the struggle
to achieve a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Is-
raeli war.
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France - Communist China: Paris may be push-
ing for closer ties with China in order to carve
out a broader role for itself in the Far East and
Southeast Asia.
Pompidou may see the Far East and Southeast
Asia as a likely sphere for action at this point.
Paris has long coveted a role in that region, as
evidenced by its recognition of China in 1964 and
its continuing efforts to participate in any South-
east Asian settlement. An active French role in
European detente efforts has been challenged tempo-
rarily by Bonn and by the US cease-fire initiative
in the Middle East.
The French may have been encouraged to seek
expanded Sino-French ties by the warm reception
accorded French Minister of Planning Andre Betten-
court during his July trip to China. Parris has
also been claiming that. Premier Chou En-lai will
lead a Chinese delegation to France to reciprocate
the Bettencourt mission. Although Chou appears
ready to resume his travels abroad, there is no
confirmation as yet that he will visit Paris, nor
is there any indication. that the Chinese have
agreed to a visit by Pompidou.
Nevertheless, Peking clearly sees value in
warmer ties with Paris. The Chinese are currently
attempting to better relations with a number of
states as part of an effort to circumscribe the
influence of the "super-powers." Moreover, both
Peking and Paris are interested ng eco-
nomic ties.
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Japan: The leader of the moderate wing of the
Japan Socialist Party (JSP) has made a strong plea
for a new grouping of the leftist opposition.
Saburo Eda, secretary general of the JSP, Ja-
pan's largest opposition party, called on the social-
ists to drop their tiresome ideological preoccupa-
tions and modernize their appeal in order to stem
the party's sharp decline. Eda also proposed uni-
fication of Japan's highly politicized labor unions
along nonideological, economically oriented lines.
Japanese labor has already, in fact, begun reducing
its political activities in favor of concentrating
on pragmatic economic benefits.
The proposals reportedly drew immediate fire
from the party's powerful left wing, promising a
sharp battle between the two groups at the party's
convention in November. The gulf between the two
wings has recently widened as a result of efforts
by the smaller and more moderate Democratic Social-
ist Party (DSP) to attract the JSP's right wing into
a new, moderate leftist party. Previously, Eda and
other JSP moderates have responded cautiously to DSP
overtures, maintaining that they should first at-
tempt to oust the extreme left wing from their
party's leadership at the November convention.
Eda's efforts are likely to face formidable re-
sistance from within the party, which refused to
budge from its outmoded Marxist ideology in the face
of dramatically declining electoral support. A spe-
cial convention called this summer in the wake of
the party's disaster in last December's national elec-
tions failed to produce any changes in party pol-
icies or leadership. An eventual split in the in-
creasingly impotent and faction-ridden JSP, however
is becoming a ver real possibility.
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Romania - Latin America: A Romanian trade del-
egation is scheduled to visit Latin America next
month.
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Latin American countries have recently been in-
creasingly receptive to Communist bloc overtures for
contacts, partly because of growing nationalistic
sentiment and the need to sell surplus commodities.
Romania has already underscored its interest by
sending Foreign Minister Manescu on a Latin Ameri-
can tour in 1968 and by dispatching several economic
missions to the area in recent years.
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Kenya: The government wants to buy 50 percent
of the country's only oil refinery by financing a
planned expansion from its own resources.
The negotiation of partnerships with foreign
firms is a response to a group in parliament that
has called for nationalization of Kenya's foreign-
controlled basic industries. The government has
already entered into partnership with the East Af-
rican Power and Light Company and with National and
Grindlays Bank. These arrangements have been han-
dled smoothly, and both parties appear satisfied
with the settlements.
Unlike take-overs in neighboring Tanzania, Zam-
bia, and Uganda,' the Kenyans have approached their
partnerships delicately, trying to avoid any pub-
licity that might scare away investors or tourists.
The tactic apparently has worked--there has been
little fear expressed by investors, and the tourist
industry continues to boom.
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Iraq: Baghdad and the Iraq Petroleum Company
(IPC) may soon resume negotiations on their long-
standing differences on IPC concessionary rights,
oil revenues, and royalties.
The IPC reportedly does not expect a break-
through, but it considers that Iraq's request for
talks is significant. Baghdad also showed interest
in the possibility of having the IPC market oil
from the North Rumaila field now being developed
by the Soviets and Hungarians. This field may be-
gin producing at a low rate in 1972. Baghdad may
recognize the problems in transporting and market-
ing oil from North Rumaila.. The Iraqis also may
prefer over the long run to sell the oil for hard
currency rather than to barter it for goods from
the Communist countries.
The reaction of the IPC to the Iraqi interest
in arranging for the marketing of this oil is un-
certain. An agreement by the IPC might be inter-
preted as a renunciation, of its claims to North
Rumaila. The IPC could accede to this, however,
as a quid pro quo for settlement of other differ-
ences that are complicating its relations with the
government.
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NOTES
Guatemala - Costa Rica: Guatemala is trying
to mount a campaign against the entry of a Soviet
mission into Costa Rica. Delegates have been sent
to the other Central American countries to formal-
ize a common position, and President Arana has
asked local businessmen to urge their colleagues
in Costa Rica to lobby against admission of a So-
viet mission. Foreign Minister Herrera publicly
expressed Guatemala's concern that the Soviets'
diplomatic immunity and permission to use tele-
graphic codes could have consequences for other
countries in the area.
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(continued)
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Brazil: President Medici's surprise plan for
automatic savings should channel a greater share
of the country's income to the working class. As
proposed to Congress, the program would be financed
mainly by taxes on business income and sales, which
are expected to total $150 million by the end of
1971 and a projected $1 billion in 1974. The funds
thus garnered would be distributed among the work-
ers. The plan should help reduce labor's increas-
ing complaints that it has borne an unfair share
of the stabilization burden since the 1964 "revolu-
tion." The draft law already has been widely
praised by both the government and opposition
arties and by labor, the press, and the church.
31 Aug 70
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