NIE-AFGHANISTAN PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000400020048-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 48
• Content Type: REPORT

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"Ap S A'F'or Release
/ 0/29
NIE - Aw3STAlA
Pri cipi1 Coi usiO 1
1. AFB Mtn FAX= CAN pRc .&BLS All
CHALLEEGE TO ITS ADTH{R1TS IN FILE
?TURF.
2. AFGHAN SH{RTAGG c F' IG1~ E MUM TZ
aWcs t TTICAL IN AST ? it
SIGN 1=4ME DIMM= St1 UNT
AFGHAN WOULD HATE REASMBLY GOOD PROSi'?S
FCR MODEST M=M=-
is
3. Al AJ/S IGN]' MANTT? S' T'EC1C
BUFFER STATE, SZPABATIM USSR FRCS[ N-
G y Wt .W BUT DCI TED BY 193I'1'SEH.
4. Ham, AFGHAN TAJ IS HICK VUL'M ALE
TO SOVIET P'RI?SSUBES.
DOCUMENT NO.
AiD.
.. 4 V i_11pY 19 00890A000 04
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r
Approved For Release 2003/10/29 : C14- P7 0020048-9
 WE".TO IISa CODS
TASZ Oft J I GH L1, BM OVERT IGMMIM
WD E TARE A1j _SO
IN ARPA WHICH USSR WOULD AVOID.
Approved For Release 2003/10129 : CIA-RDP79R00890A000400020048-9
 Approved For Release 2003/10/ DP79R0089OA000400020048-9
Afghan-3
7. AFGHAN WILL SEEK WESTERN ECON AID TO
COUNTERBALANCE THAT RECEIVED FROM USSR.
Ham, UNLIKELY THAT AFGHANS WOULD JOIN
WESTERN DIEFED'iSE ARRANGEMENT.
8. AFGHAN WILL PRC iABLY CONTINUE TO ACCEPT
SOP AID AND MAY MISJUDGE ITS ABILITY
TO CUED ACCOMPANYING SOV SUBVERSIV.
ACTIVITY. MAY ALSO OVERESTIMATE WESTERN
ABILITY AND WILL TO ASSIST THEN! IN EVENT
CP XILITARY CIEs DIP CRISIS.
9. IMPROVEMENT IN PAK-AFGHAN REIAT IONS,
DC IMATED BY AFGHAN--INSTIGATED PUS&.
TUNISTAN CONTR T, UNLIICELY.
Approved For Release 2003/10/29 ~ 79R00890A000400020048-9
 approved For Release 2003/10129 CIA-RDP79R0 QD 020048-9
PROSPECTS FOR 'GHAN-PAKISTAN COiLFIDE iA-
TIOs P 'I& ISTAN
ACTU& LY SOME TALK IN AF3HA. AND PAK-
ISTANI OFFICIAL CIS OF SOME FOEI
OF CCM'EDUATION
(THIS PLAN URWGI OK PAKISTAN BT AJE3&
PLAN)
WWRo RESPONSIBLE K'AEACF_I WD KABUL
ALTHCRITIES UNLIKELY TO AIRSE ON :GL
BEGAUSx 'F E -SIQ IWE L Ct `.PiICATIONZ
ND SOVIET AND IIDIA? OPPOSITION
VENT NO! _
NO C l;-.~;v.E 1)4 CLASS.
QPv 1EINER:
Approved F ye1ease 2003/10/29: CIA-wb 9R00890A00
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