MONTHLY WARNING AND FORECAST MEETINGS FOR JULY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100140026-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: August 6, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
6 August 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning and Forecast Meetings for July 1984
1. Summary of key warning issues:
We continue to believe that the USSR might take actions designed to
embarrass the US below a threshold of deliberate superpower confrontation.
Danger areas continue to be Central America, Berlin, the Arabian Gulf and
Pakistan.
Stable Soviet leadership is an important ingredient in any such scenario
therefore we continue to evaluate Chernenko's osition.
he has had publicized spells of weakness and
in genera prooa y mus o ow a limited work schedule. Chernenko will
probably suffer other related health problems, but even in his present state,
he is probably incapable of providing real leadership. Limited work hours
limit his capability to run the state apparatus and shape decisions. His
limited acumen and physical frailty make it unlikely that he can dominate
either the Politburo or the Secretariat.
India/Pakistan
We cannot rule out the possibility that Pakistan will be able to test a
nuclear device within a year, but our best technical estimate suggests that
production of weapon-significant quantities of fissile material will not be
possible for at least two years. Some parts of the Indian government
apparently view a Pakistani nuclear threat as imminent and it is our view that
a preemptive military strike by India is a near-term possibility.
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The recent increases in tension between India and Pakistan could be a
precursor to military action by India.
An Indian attack on Pakistani nuclear facilities would almost certainly
prompt retaliatory attacks against Indian nuclear facilities and would
probably lead to full-scale war.
We could have very little additional political or military warning of an
attack on Pakistani facilities.
Nicaragua
There is little additional evidence of MIG-21 deliveries in
September/October, but there is new data on the potential delivery of five
L-39 jet trainers to Nicaragua from Libya by a Bulgarian ship. L-39s are
combat-capable aircraft that would be useful in a counterinsurgency role and
in attacks on ground targets in neighboring countries as well as in a limited
air defense role. These aircraft may fulfill Nicaragua's announced
determination to acquire aircraft, yet be below the threshold of the US
demarche.
Yugoslavia
The domestic situation has deteriorated somewhat over the last few
months. International financing through 1984 is assured and Yugoslavia is
fulfilling IMF conditions, but these measures are depressing living standards
and have produced complaints about inequitable burdensharing in Croatia and
Serbia. The June Party Plenum postponed decisions on more fundamental
economic reforms and on the imposition of national party discipline on
regional party bodies. The situation will probably get worse before it can
start getting better.
The new members of the Federal Presidency are more ambitious leaders who
are addressing the critical issues more openly. Military leaders who have
been openly critical of past political leadership may be withholding judgment
or may be divided among themselves.
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The Soviets have muted their earlier criticism of Yugoslavia, but they
will surely maintain pressure to deter Yugoslavs from adopting domestic or
foreign policies abhorrent to them.
Iran-Iraq
Iran's military preparations for an attack include a readiness to cross
the Shatt Al-Arab, but given the Iraqi defenses and extensive flooding in the
area, an Iranian attack would likely incur very high casualties. There are
continuing indications of delay based on political decisions in Tehran.
Discussion still probably hinges more on how and when to launch an attack
rather than whether to attack.
El Salvador
The major offensive planned by the insurgents has probably slipped from
August to September. They are apparently experiencing difficulties
coordinating plans, training new recruits and may be having supply and
logistical problems.
Narcotics
The diversion of legitimate pharmaceuticals and precursor chemicals
continues to be the main source of international trafficking in dangerous
drugs such as stimulants, depressants and hallucinogens. Chemicals are
diverted from legitimate European pharmaceutical companies through areas such
as Switzerland and the Hamburg Free Trade Zone to clandestine labs in Latin
America. These "tablet factory" labs process and then ship the drugs to the
US and other countries. Because of drug enforcement efforts, we expect an
increasing trend in the use of substitute chemicals for drugs sent to the US
that will make enforcement efforts more difficult and increase the threat from
dangerous drugs over the next year.
2. Trend Commentary
USSR/Afghani stan/India/Pakistan
In January 1984, Afghan aircraft attacked refugee camps in Pakistan. The
Warning and Forecast memo for February stated that a Soviet media campaign was
designed to incite Indian animosity towards Pakistan. Although most analysts
doubted that these events indicated a new phase of Soviet involvement in South
Asia, we warned the situation needed careful observation. Now, Moscow and New
Delhi are exerting increased pressures against Pakistan and although the
Indians have their own grievances against Pakistan, they are almost certainly
being encouraged by the Soviets who appreciate the difficult problem for US
policymaking. The trend continues toward greater Soviet military efforts in
Afghanistan and greater involvement in Pakistani/Indian affairs.
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Nigeria
The situation in Nigeria continues to deteriorate. There is plotting by
junior officers and a shuffle of senior officers could take place at any
time. We continue to believe that junior and middle-grade officers will
attempt to overthrow the Buhari government within the next six months.
Tunisi a
The bread riots in January vented a considerable amount of public
dissatisfaction, but the underlying causes of dissatisfaction--economic
stagnation and political corruption--remain. While there is no specific
immediate issue to spark trouble in the months ahead, the major actors in any
disorders will be Islamic fundamentalists.
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4. Comments of June Collection Issues:
Nicaragua
radars were noted during July, further improving the Nicaraguan air defense
position. On 19 July, the first GCI operation consisted of the intercept of a
US C-130 reconnaissance aircraft by two Nicaraguan T-33 aircraft. Although
this incident demonstrated only a limited EW/GCI capability, the Nicaraguans
are obviously making efforts to become more proficient, which would be
important before the introduction of high performance aircraft.
additional deployments of EW/GCI
India/Pakistan
Gandhi has apparently been told by intelligence advisors that Pakistan
has or is accumulating sufficient fissile material to produce a small number
of nuclear weapons. Other Indian government and military officials are
greatly disturbed over the Pakistani nuclear program, as well as over a
perceived intensification of Pakistani posturing against India.
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David Y. M Tanis
Attachments:
Monthly Warning and
Forecast Meeting Reports
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