WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT FOR LATIN AMERICA JUNE 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100130005-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 25, 2008
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: June 22, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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National Intelligence Council
NIC-03639-84
22 June 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Acting National Intelligence Officer
for Latin America
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report for Latin America
June 1984
1. The following items were discussed at the Warning and Forecast
Meeting held on 20 June 1984.
Debtor's Conference
2. The major Latin American debtor nations are holding a conference
in Colombia which will likely result in a joint declaration on measures
to be taken by lender countries and institutions to ease the debt burden.
-- While it is unlikely that a debtor's cartel will be formed,
individual countries may follow the Bolivian lead of
declaring temporary debt moratoriums until terms can be
renegotiated.
-- The conference may also call for continued joint action by
major debtors countries to negotiate with key lenders.
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
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 Approved For Release 2008/11/25: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100130005-2
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is
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report for Latin America
June 1984
El Salvador
4. A major insurgent offensive is expected in the August/September
timeframe to regain the military initiative and enhance their
negotiations posture.
-- Rather than an all-out, short-term operation, the offensive
is likely to be a lesser effort sustained over several
weeks.
The insurgents may be able to score some limited tactical
success with more political/psychological than military
value, although some spectacular operations cannot be ruled
out.
A key to guerrilla success will be whether sustained Army
operations can keep them off balance and prevent sufficient
coordination between the various factions.
6. Another area of concern is that President Duarte appears to be
ignoring the moderate right and forcing it to align with the far right in
the Assembly.
-- This may make it difficult to win approval for key reform
measures.
SECRET/
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 Approved For Release 2008/11/25: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100130005-2
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report for Latin America
June 1984
Nicaragua
8. The pace of construction at several Nicaraguan airfields,
including Punta Huete, Puerto Cabezas, and Bluefields, has increased
substantially over the past several months, and all may be ready to
support limited fighter operations by September/October.
-- This suggests that more Cuban construction workers have
arrived, and that Havana may risk deploying MIG fighter
aircraft prior to the U.S. elections.
-- The increased pace of other military deliveries by the
Soviet Bloc this year, particularly of tanks, raises the
possibility that the Soviets and Cubans may be
pre-positioning equipment in the expectation of major
hostilities.
-- It also suggests that Cuban combat units may be preparing
to deploy to Nicaragua if necessary.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/11/25: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100130005-2