COMMENT ON THE ADEQUACY OF WARNING IN BEIRUT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100050021-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2008
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: November 3, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776ROO0100050021-3
? S E C R E T
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC #7950-83
3 November 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Charles E. Waterman
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM : David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT : Comment on the Adequacy of Warning in Beirut
1. The press is trying to establish a confrontation between
the military and the Intelligence Community about the adequacy of
warning of the bombing of the Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut.
My views are as follows.
2. There clearly was a failure of warning in that the
barracks was indeed blown up. However, that does not necessarily
make either the Corps or the Community culpable. The NID did
indeed contain a generic warning; however, as P. X. Kelley notes,
no one warned of the specific incident. This highlights the
warning dilemma. Early warning tends to be ambiguous and
responsive action very costly in resource terms. The critical
issue in the Beirut bombing is that the Commander who was on the
scene was aware of the threat and took what he believed to be
prudent actions against that generic threat. Had the warning
been more specific he clearly would have taken more specific
actions. However, as is too often the case with terrorist
actions the warning was not specific, the actions were general
security, and the result was significant loss of life. Thus the
system worked but the warning failed and both the warners and the
decision makers responded appropriately although inadequately.
Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776ROO0100050021-3
 Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100050021-3
? J t L n n 1
NIC #7950-83
3 November 1983
SUBJECT: Comment on the Adequacy of Warning in Beirut
Distribution:
Orig -
VC/NIC
(Mr. Waterman)
1 -
C/NIC
1 -
NI0/AL
(Mr. Ford)
1 -
A/NI0/W
'1 - NIO/W Chron
1 - NIO/W Subject File
Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100050021-3