LONG-RANGE PLANNING FOR THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100030037-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2008
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: September 7, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100030037-8
0 S E C R E T
4P
The Director of Central Intelligence
NIC #6370-83
7 September 1983
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: David B. Low
National Intelligence Officer at Large
David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT Long-Range Planning for the Intelligence
Community
1. We appreciate the opportunity to help develop this
important paper and believe the view of the future is a fine
starting point. We have provided a number of issues/suggestions
which we understand are to be part of another section of the
study.
2. The discussion of the driving forces of population, food
production, energy and the resulting international economy
suggest a changed environment, especially toward the end of the
study timeframe. However, the overall result in this paper seems
to be a general continuation of events, groupings and power
relationships as they exist today. We suggest you clarify what
message you seek to convey to the reader.
3. We recommend that you consider that the economic
pressures, particularly as they affect the debt-ridden less-
developed-countries (LDC) and the Newly Industrializing Countries
(NIC's), will exert pressure toward new, more beneficial economic
associations. Such a development would not directly threaten the
U.S. since we would have economic and financial options not
available to others, and secondly, such a development could avert
a major breakdown in credit relationships and international
economics. However, the relationships between nations could
possibly be quite different.
4. It seems to be a reasonable possibility that as the year
2000 approaches, with resources more limited and more critical to
national power, that national economic alliances will be adjusted
to account for the limitations and strengths of nations. The
most likely associations seem to be Industrialized and NIC
countries with the LDC's who have significant resource
opportunities. These associations could allow the more
industrialized powers to share the debt burden of LDC's while
LDC's provide a favored resource status to benefactors.
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9 S E C R E T ?
5. While the composition of alliances may differ, there is
a good probability that major cartels such as OPEC would
deteriorate and realign in an effort to balance needs of
manufactured goods, food, military support, resource assets, and
debt-handling capacity. The alignment of the U.S. and Canada
would seem to be with the EEC but the U.S. would have wider
options based on its willingness to assist poor nations. Without
doubt, food will become a major bargaining chip. .
6. With these factors in mind the following additional
comments are recommended:
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