U.S. POSITION PAPER FOR STANDING GROUP INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE FOR NATO PLANNING 1960

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000900060007-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 31, 2002
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: March 3, 1960
• Content Type: MF

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THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF
WASHINGTON 25. D. C.
J2DM-77-60
3 March 1960
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Subject: U.S. Position Paper for Standing Group Irte1.-_1-
gence Estimate for NATO Planning 19h0 through
1966 (SG 161/13)
Enclosure: J.C.S. Changes to Subject Paper
1. Yesterday the Joint Chiefs of Staff considered the
United States Position Paper for the Standing Group intel:t.igen
Estimate for NATO Planning 1960 through 1966 (SG 161/13). I an
enclosing a copy of the changes to which they agreed.
2. The Joint Chiefs of Staff believe that the Chang s W.
result in a NATO paper more applicable to the planning it is
designed to support.
3. Under the terms of the "Agreed Procedures" I hav--- beers
designated to represent the Joint Chiefs of Staff in pres-nting
the above changes to you. I am also greatly concerned about '.he
need for expeditious final resolution of this problem in view of
the fact that the Standing Group Conference commences on , Mt2cl
1960. I recommend your concurrence in the changes made.
a
4+. If you agree with the changes as being appropriate to
Standing Group intelligence estimate, I would appreciate :our
concurrence so that this paper may be released as soon as pos3tLe.
JCS and DIA
review(s) completed.
ROBERT . ~BR IS E11
Major General, USAF
Director for Intelligence
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F N C L O S U R E
JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF CHANGES TO THE UNITED STATES
POSITION PAPER FOR STANDING GROUP INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATP
FOR NATO PLANNING 1960 THROUGH 1966 (SG 161/l3)
1. Page 38, paragraph 3, beginning at the top of page ~8,
change as follows:
?a general war without itself incurring unacceptable darnagH
we do not believe that the Soviets will attempt-be-ba.ld
during the period of this estimate, rel solely on an ICBM
force deeg~ea-fe~_thie_~a,pe,se to achieve their object es in
general war. Nevertheless, they will probably build a t.ub
stantial long-range missile force. They will almost cer-
tainly wish to have a. high degree of deterrence, and ben,nd
this, s~eald-deter exiee-fa#~3 a force offering as much pr'omt ~
of success for an attack,-.& pre-emptive attack, or indeel
fep-a retaliatory, attack as can be brought within accep'i:ab .:,
margins of economic costs. Also, and again consistent Wth
acceptable cost, the Soviets will probably build up thei.,
planned force rapidly in order to capitalize tl~eegh-p?~:-ties.
expleitat eR on the r l
*-* I - -
ea th
through political exploitation or otential use."
2. Page 40, paragraph 9, change as follows:
"Provided that NATO maintains a posture of effective
deterrence, We believe the Soviet leaders will not seleo;
the course of deliberate initiation of general war during ;he
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period of this Estimate. They show full appreciation of the
incalculable disaster that would be visited upon both si.1es
in such a war. Their programs to build greater military
power, however, are being pushed vigorously. Bud- fey-p a a:
de-xet-ee~x~-apex-aeQ~#~~t~gs-~y-a~.3~-~aat~#eala~--d.ateT-ata-~,sl~a?~b~,c~e
se-dee eive-ae-te-permit- fie -te-laaxeh-gexe~al-way-with
asse~ar~ee-ef-saeeess-ae~-a~der-gexd~exs-w~ie~-wend-xw;
gravely-texaee-t~ei -regime-axd-seeie~y~"
3. Page 54, paragraph 24+, third sentence, change the third
sentence to read as follows:
"It is estimated therefore that a Soviet decision to initiate
-a-limited military operations way' in the NATO Area is hi hl-y
unlikely during the period of this Estimate so long as t_Ae
foregoing two key factors of Soviet judgment remain unchanged
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DOC. NO. =X-77-60
DOC. DATE 3 garch-65
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