DRAFT STANDING GROUP ESTIMATE OF SOVIET BLOC STRENGTH AND CAPABILITIES - SG 161/13 (Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000900060005-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 31, 2002
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 31, 1960
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 200I906S iI JOBO1676R000900060005-4
THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF
J2DM-115-60
31 March 1960
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Subject: Draft Standing Group Estimate of Soviet `Bloc
Strength and Capabilities - SG 161/13 (C")
References: a. CIA Memo to JCS dtd 27 Feb 60
F. Agreed Procedures for U.S. Participation
NATO Standing Group Intelligence Estimate
Enclosure: Draft Memorandum for Chairman, Joint Chiefs
of Staff
1. The Ad Hoc Intelligence Working Group (U.S., U.X. anc':
France) convened by the Standing Group to prepare the anrrual
revision of the NATO Standing Group Intelligence Estimate completed
its draft of SG 161/13 on 23 March 1960. This draft (IC4I/172 - 1st
draft) is being forwarded to the three Standing Group govern=?xr.tts
for comment. The draft will be acted on by the Standing tlrour-
after each representative thereto receives his national *uidarsce.
The Standing Group usually completes its consideration of the
SG 161 Estimate about 1 May.
2. The comments and recommendations of the United S.ateE
Intelligence Board to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, concerning tr.ik
draft SG 161/13 Estimate, are requested. The Joint Chiefs of
Staff will consider these comments and recommendations along
with those of the United States Representative, Standing Gro L,.
NATO and will then furnish guidance to the U. S. RepresentativE.
Standing Group, concerning the final U.S. position on SG 16l/)-
3. In the intelligence conference (AHIWG) to prepare t.i?
draft SG 161/13 Estimate it was found necessary to resort to
bracket figures in order to accommodate the divergent U.S., J.i:.
and French views. The significant instances are as follows:
a. Heavy Bomber Inventory. In the U.S. Position Pater,
page 70, PART II,~Table 1B, e inventory for mid-19o4 wz
120 heavy bombers with a footnote accommodating the Arnn
and Air Force positions. The draft estimate shows a spa-
within the Table commencing in mid-1961 to accommodate
U.H. position and an expanded explanatory footnote.
JCS and DIA
review(s) completed.
Approved For Release 2003/03/06 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R000
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b. GIM Submarines, Conventional Power. The U.S.
posiEion, page 35, PART II, has the "G" class submarine
leveling off at 18 units in mid-1962. The draft estivate
shows this as a span of 18-24 to accommodate the U.K.
position and the submarine is considered a "G" or
equivalent class.
c. Total under Arms in Soviet Bloc. (U.S. Position
Paper, PA'Rfi3T, paragraphs 1, 3, 36 and 46) These para-
graphs were rewritten by the AHIWG. The bracket figures
of 5.4 to 5.8 million men under arms include approximately
one million of the Satellite Armed Forces and 650,000
security troops. The following table shows the differenc=as
for the three Services:
U.S. Position ABIWG Draft
Army 2,650,000 2.5-2.7 million
Navy 830,000 600,ooo-8oo,o0J
Naval Aviation (110,000) (90,000)
Air Force 820,000 790,000
4. The Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff, recommend
that the USIB concur in the draft estimate including the
accommodations reflected in paragraph 3 above. There were no
split views expressed in the draft estimate this year.
5. The Standing Group anticipates that it will have copl=s
of this draft estimate (2/172) in the U.S. Central Registry
and subregistries on or before 1 April 1960. It is requested
that this draft estimate be placed on the USIB agenda for
12 April 1960. It is recommended that USIB, in considering this
document, not approve it, but rather concur in its use for NATc
military planning. The draft memorandum in the enclosure is
proposed if the USIB concurs in the above.
S. POST, JR.
Rear Admiral, USN
Acting Director for Intelligence
R,/I.
Approved For Release
IA-RDP80BO1676R000900060005-4
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