THE FIFTEEN-YEAR PLAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP76B00952R000100080006-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 29, 2002
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: May 27, 1965
• Content Type: MF

SECRET AMW
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT : The Fifteen-Year Plan
1. In response to your instruction, attached herewith' is an outline
for a Fifteen-Year Plan for U.S. intelligence. This outline and the
supporting illustrative material have been prepared in the Office of
Budget, Program Analysis and Manpower with the participation of all
CIA components as represented on the ad hoc panel appointed for this
purpose.
2. Given the time-frame under which this task was undertaken,
there is little further polishing that can be done. It is believed that this
submission is responsive to the Director's request for a proposed
planning mechanism which would be community-wide in scope and
long-rangeod'in nature. The procedures outlined provide for a logical
sequence of data collection and development which, when refined and
assembled, should give the Director and USIB an amalgam of US
intelligence programs against which progress can be charted, alternatives
considered, policy issues illuminated, and managerial decisions formulated.
3. Should the attached be accepted as a first cut at the problem,.
I would recommend that responsibility for implementation and coordination
be assigned to the D/DCI/NIPE. As you are aware, during the past two
years Mr. McCone, with the assistance of NIPE, took several significant
steps in furtherance of the DCI's responsibility for coordinating and
guiding the total US intelligence effort. Among these were:
- The strengthening of the USIB structure and of other
coordination entities;
- Participation, with appropriate SecDef elements, in a very
thorough review of COMINT requirements which should
surface some fundamental choices in this field;
SECRET
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- Representation at the formal Defense Department reviews
of the Consolidated Cryptologic Program and the Consolidated
Intelligence Program;
- The sponsoring of a series of surveys of representative
intelligence activities (e. g. the Nolting and Shute Reports);
The initiation, with the Defense Intelligence Agency, of an
effort to establish compatible categories of intelligence
facilities and assets so as to make possible a community-
wide index, based on common denominators.
These measures, useful as they have been, represent essentially only
first steps toward putting the DCI in a position to discharge his full
responsibility for coordination and direction of the community. Successful
development of the proposed Fifteen Year Plan will be a major step
toward this goal.
Lyman B. Kirkpatrick
Executive Director-Comptroller
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Copy No. of copies
BPAM 65-_
28 May 1965
PROPOSED OUTLINE FOR A FIFTEEN YEAR INTELLIGENCE PLAN
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OUTLINE FOR A FIFTEEN-YEAR PLAN
1. The course of recent history, the actions of four Presidents,
and prospective international developments all point inescapably to
a continuing key role for intelligence in our Government. It is the
purpose of this Plan to outline and project over the next fifteen years
the intelligence goals and programs of the Intelligence Community in
order to ready ourselves for the tasks ahead. By so doing in the light
of new or modified functions, new methods, techniques and associated
equipment, and the requirements for personnel and funding, we shall
be prepared to discharge the important responsibilities upon which
our national well-being and even our survival may depend.
2. When completed the Plan will provide a means of expressing
U. S. intelligence goals and programs for the period 1966- 1980 and
will furnish the Director of Central Intelligence and USIB a basis for
reviewing and evaluating:
a. The general direction of the total U. S. intelligence effort
for the next fifteen years, within the context of U. S. national
security interests during this period; and
b. The specific actions which are proposed by USIB agencies
over the next five years to meet expressed goals and the human and
material resources required to implement these actions for each
of the first five years.
The authority for developing this plan rests upon the National
Security Act of 1947 as amended, appropriate National Security Council
Intelligence Directives, and the President's letter to the Director of
Central Intelligence of 1965.
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The Fifteen-Year Plan would be divided into three five-year
periods with the near term (first five years) spelled out by years;
the entire Plan would be updated annually. National and international
developments and trends in the form of assumptions will be projected
over two time periods, 1966-1970 and 1971- 1980.
ORGANIZATION OF PLAN:
1. Assumptions
As a first step we look ahead for 15 years to derive a set of
gross assumptions regarding likely developments in the world situation
which will most significantly affect U. S. security interests and by
extension point up the most important intelligence tasks. The initial
step;,would be coordinated by the Board of National Estimates and,
expressed as assumptions (Attachment A), will furnish basic guidance
to planners in the establishment of goals and programs. The assumption
exercise should be completed no later than 15 July 1965.
2. Intelligence Objectives
Given an agreed set of gross assumptions, the Plan calls
for setting forth a wide and comprehensive range of substantive
intelligence objectives which are translatable within categories
of the Plan to specific projects and tasks for intelligence organizations.
These substantive intelligence objectives should extend from,the
assumptions and reflect the kind and variety of situations which require
coverage in U. S. intelligence programs for the period. Examples of
selected intelligence objectives are set forth by way of illustration at
Attachment B. It would be expected that all intelligence organizations
would contribute to the listing of intelligence objectives and that a
careful coordination of all contributions would be made and reported
to the DCI and USIB (due 1 September 1965).
3. Planning Guides
In addition to the substantive intelligence objectives described
in paragraph 2. above which lead directly to specific projects and tasks,
there are also a range of intelligence-related needs and issues which
require identification for action consideration by the DCI and USIB.
2
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In most instances these intelligence needs and issues will require
careful consideration and coordination within and among the
intelligence organizations, and will include such things as R&D,
intelligence training, tradecraft, methods, systems, and institu-
tional (organizational and functional) matters likely to have a direct
bearing on long-range intelligence requirements. The Planning
Guides at Attachment C provide a sample listing of these needs and
issues. In order that the DCI and USIB have the full benefit of the
thinking of all intelligence organizations on this aspect of the exercise,
submission of additional planning guides should coincide, timewise,
with the completion of intelligence objectives as outlined in
paragraph 2. above.
4. Goals and Programs
a. The Fifteen-Year plan will be the instrument for describing:
(1) major goals and emphasis in intelligence programming
over the long term (1966- 1980), and
(2) specific programs required to meet intelligence
objectives for the next five years ( 1966- 1970) using FY 1966
as the base.
b. The following categories of intelligence functions will be used:
(1) Intelligence Collection
(2) Photo Inte:rpretation =LInformati.Qn Processing (including ADP)
(3) Intelligence Production
(4) Covert Action
(5) Program Planning and Support
Each of these categories will be sub-divided to accommodate the
many categories of sub-functions of intelligence (see Appendix A).
With respect to the first five-year term, contributors will be
required to describe programs (in format to be designed) and
specific human and material resource requirements related to
these programs.
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1. A call for Fifteen-Year goals will be issued to each USIB
agency. This call will require the submission of statements by
category of intelligence function for each of the three five-year
periods (year by year projections are not required in this phase).
See Appendix B for examples.
2. Specific programs will be projected for the.first five-
year period. A call for a five-year projection of programs and of
resource requirements for the period 1966- 1970 will be issued to each
USIB agency. This call will require the submission of statements
briefly describing each major program foreseen and the resources
required (e. g. people/money, R&D, capital investment, etc. ).
See Appendix B for examples.
1. During the preparation of the Fifteen-Year Plan and the
specifying of programs and resource requirements, the myriad
of interrelationships involved will obviously require extensive
discussion among a large number of intelligence components
throughout the Community. If a particular program is planned to
meet specified intelligence needs, it may reduce the need for other
programs and/or increase support requirements to satisfy that
specific program. Moreover, the annuality of the proposed review
will permit assessment of the success of intelligence programs which
may make possible certain offsetting activity in other lines. Likewise
successes in meeting certain programs and goals may generate
additional intelligence programs in any one or all of the categories.
Because of this complex situation, it is obvious that goals identified
by individual components of the Intelligence Community are always
subject to adjustment.
2. The Deputy to the Director for National Intelligence Programs
Evaluation will be assigned by the Director of Central Intelligence the
responsibility for acting in his behalf in coordinating the Fifteen-Year
Plan and in preparing such specific reviews and analyses as are
appropriate for reporting to USIB and the DCI.
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Attachment A -
Attachment B -
Attachment C -
Appendix A -
Appendix B -
Appendix C -
Assumptions
Intelligence Objectives
Planning Guides
Organization of Functional Categories
Formats for Long-Range Goals and Program Forecasts
Project Schedule for Fifteen-Year Plan
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INTELLIGENCE OBJECTIVES
The statement of Assumptions in Attachment A points the way to certain
substantive intelligence objectives which must receive priority intelligence
effort. Such objectives, while derived generally from the Assumptions, must
also take into account the entire gamut of national security requirements
which intelligence must meet. For example, although it is assumed that
there will be no all-out nuclear conflict within the next fifteen years,
intelligence must continue high priority efforts to detect any indications
that such a conflict might occur.
Intelligence Objectives will provide the basis for projecting intelli-
gence goals and programs. Objectives will be responded to directly by many
intelligence programs involving collection, analysis and action, and
indirectly by programs involving communications and training. The inter-
relationship of objectives and responsive programs is extremely complicated
in terms of even a single objective. It is therefore important that
Intelligence Objectives deal strictly with substantive considerations and
avoid reference to the particular obligations of one or more intelligence
technique, method, or source. The various specialized programs considered
responsive to the Intelligence Objectives should be described in the portions
of the Fifteen Year Plan dealing with Long-Range Goals and Program Forecasts.
The Intelligence Objectives which follow are only examples, to be
considered as illustrative of the general scope and subject matter involved.
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SAkIPLE Attachment C
PLAI411ING GUIDES
The following is an attempt to describe briefly the most important
existing and probable future problems facing the U.S. intelligence effort.
The entries onthe list are necessarily general; other considerations and
problems eseential to an effective long-term intelligence system may have
been overlooked. Each contributor to the Fifteen Year Plan should therefore
consider this listing as only general guidance to his development of goals
and programs.
In the consideration of long-range intelligence goals and in the
preparation of programs over the next five year period U.S. intelligence
agencies should give consideration to the following needs:
I. Management, Program Control and Coordination
1. Definition and allocation of responsibilities among
agencies and the coordination of Community assets to
achieve U.S. aims.
2. Evaluation of the performance and potential of collection and
analysis activities in terms of their costs.
3. A 24-hour manning situation of all primary intelligence
collection, processing and analytic elements.
4. Allocation of resources to analytical and collection tasks,
both intra and inter-agency.
5. Organization structures to meet revised responsibilities and
requirements.
6. A comprehensive "reserve" capability to meet emergencies and
new developments.
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APPENDIX A
PROPOSED ORGANIZATION OF FUNCTIONAL CATEGORIES
FOR FIFTEEN-YEAR PLAN
A-1 Intelligence Collection
A-2 Photo Interpretation - Information Processing and ADP
A-3 Intelligence Production
A-l Covert Action
A-5 Program Planning and Support
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SAMPLE A-3
I21TELLIGE1CE PRODUCTION
I. COAT-NNIST.WORLD (USSR, Communist China, European Satellites,
Asia Satellites, Cuba)
A. Political
B. Economic
C. Military
D. Scientific and Technical
II. WESTERN EUROPE
A. Political
B. Economic
C. Military
D. Scientific and Technical
III. AFRICA
A. Political
B. Economic
C. Military
D. Scientific and Technical
IV. NEAR EAST
A. Political
B. Economic
C. Military
D. Scientific and Technical
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A-3
V. FAR EAST
A. Political
B. Economic
C. Military
D. Scientific and Technical
A. Political
B. Economic
C. Military
D. Scientific and Technical
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IV.. LOGISTICS
A. Materiel and Transportation
B. Facilities
C. Procurement
D. Printing
E. General Services
F. Industrial Security
G. Manage rent and Staff
V. CON MiLU ICATIONS
A. Research and Develo ment
B. Special Programs Activity
C. Comunications Support
VII. FII'TANCE
A. Executive Direction and Control
B. Accounts
C. Audit
D. Disbursement
VIII.SECURITY
A. Executive Direction
B. Automatic Data Processin
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C. Counterintelligence (See Collection III A-1 and III c)
D. Personnel Security
E. Polygraph
P. Physical Security
G. Technical Security
H. Investigations and Operational Support
I. Industrial Security
J. Special Security
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SAI1PLE
APPENDIX B
PROPOSED FORMATS FOR LONG-RANGE GOALS
AND
PROGRAI?I FORECASTS
B-i and B-la: Examples of Long-Range Goals and Program Forecasts
under Functional Category V, Photo Interpretation/
Information Processing/ADP:
B-1 : Long-Range Goals 1966-1970
B-la : Program Forecast for FY 1966
B-2 and B-2a: Examples of Long Range Goals and Programs Forecasts
under Functional Category IV, Covert Action:
B-2 : Long-Range Goals 1966-1970
B-2a : Program Forecast for FY 1966
B-3, 13-3a Examples of Long-Range Goals and Program Forecasts
and B-3b: under Functional Category I, Intelligence Collection:
B-3 : Long-Range Goals 1966-1970
B-3a : Program Forecast for FY 1966
B -3b : Program Forecast for FY 1967
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Appendix C
PROJECT SCHEDULE FOR THE FIFTEEN-YEAR PLAN
Subject
Completion Date
1.
Assumptions
1 September 1965
Agency submission
(NIPE coordinator)
2.
Intelligence Objectives
1 September 1965
Agency submission
(NIPS coordinator)
3.
Planning Needs
1 November 1965
Agency submission
(NIPE coordinator)
4.
Forecast of Long-Range Goals
1 January 1966
Agency submission
(NIPE coordinator)
5.
Forecast of Programs
1 July 1966
Agency submission
Resources (For Fiscal
(NIPE coordinator)
Year 1966-1970)
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