ASIAN STUDIES AND OUR NATIONAL SECURITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP75-00001R000300250011-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 29, 1999
• Sequence Number: 11
• Content Type: SPEECH

Approved For Release 2000/05/05: CIA-RDP75-00001 R0003002A1 SPEECH
Otto E. Guth*
Asian Studies Conference
Indiana Univerity
ASIAN STUDIES AND OUR NATIONAL SECURITY '
1. Introduction
It is a privilege to be here this evening and to participate with you
in this Conference.
I have been impressed by the truly remarkable expansion over the
last decade in the attention given to Asian studies by American scholars.
academic institutions, and the foundations, and this has come -- I am
sure not by chance -- at a time when our position of leadership in the
Free World and our involvement in Asia have called for a fuller
understanding of this important part of the world.
A tremendous challenge to all men of freedom is found in Asia.
To place this challenge in a meaningful context. I am going to
emphasize a few of the things that are happening there.
Later, I want to make some remarks on how your colleges and
universities, through Asian studies, can provide further insight on
Asian problems affecting our security interests.
II. The Nature of the Challewge
A. Communist China
We cannot escape the influence of Communist China in Asia.
Here. we have a nation hostile to our interests. rapidly growing
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power and influence. We can foresee the possibility ?? indeed the
probability -- of a formidable, unfriendly China. a nation of a billion
souls by 1975, a nation with dedicated and ruthless leaders. unrelenting
in their antagonism to us. Even the Soviets show some stirrings of
worry about this rising power.
The Communist leaders in China are arrogant and aggressive
in their actions. and seem beat on maintaining international tensions
and pressure on neutralist governments.
The growing, naked power of the Chinese Communists
already has to be reckoned with -- and may, within the lifetime of
many of you, present the Free World with a challenge equally
dangerous to that now posed by the Soviet Union. And indeed, there
is no reason to expect their ambitious to be limited to Asia. They
are already showing signs of increased interest in Africa. South
America, and the Caribbean.
Militarily, they have built up a formidable force. made
possible by Soviet backing and by an economic development program
that has been pushed with a fervor and ruthlessness not attempted
by any other nation in modern history.
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Communist China is standing increasingly on its own two
feet. It has assumed a posture of near-equality in its business
relationships with the Soviet Union. Aside from military loans, all
that Peiping has received in long-term credit from Moscow over the
past ten years has been two economic loans totaling $430 million.
All of China's imports from the USSR have been an a pay-as-you-go
basis since 1956, and China at the same time has been paying off the
Soviet loans of previous years.
Under forced draft methods, there have been impressive
increases in Communist China's industrial output -- ae,de#gss
The Chinese clearly are building
up their heavy industry. They are plowing back into investment a
large and increasing proportion of their total output. They intend
to assure continued and rapid economic growth -- and their chances,
based on the record, are good.
Chinese Invest=**
ve by a comparison with
I. more than twice India's investment. Total
alone 80 percent greater hen that of India co
d to 40 percent
only 6 years earlier. Al reay China has far outstr
steel production -- and hopes to tch up with Japan this `y~ear in
..3.
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put this in some pars
on a "r ca -vita basis.
hinese output is'
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the production of commercially usable steel. But these advances
cannot mask the needs of a hungry people.
These people have been mercilessly exploited by their
leaders -? witness the marshalling of labor resources for the Great
Leap Forward sad the practices which accompanied the introduction
of the communes, which the peasants appear to have bitterly
resented. Living standards are low and diets are poor. However.
recognition of the need for reducing popular discontent and providing
for worker incentives may force the leaders to bring about some
bette r ment.
Peipin,,haws always be - sharply aware t t'the country! -
prosperity,.aa growth prospects are tied to agricultural output.
Today we find a program beginning to emerge on the Mainland whic
willprobaably result in food production increasing somewhat
rapidly than the population --.At least in the-imm ediate f ate(ire.
In spite of these difficulties. Communist China is making
Awn substantial progress toward transforming an overcrowded and
underdeveloped agricultural country into an industrial nation. t