MEETING WITH MEMBERS OF STATE-DEFENSE-CIA STUDY GROUP ON THE MIDDLE EAST, 20 APRIL 1967

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70S00385R000100260020-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2002
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: April 21, 1967
• Content Type: MFR

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11F140RANIXJ14 FOR THE RECORD
OUBTECT:
PRESENT:
21 April 1)67
Meeting with Members of State-Defense-CIA Study
Group on the Niddle East, 20 April 1367
study Group
and Members of the 25X1A
1. Thie meeting was held, at the request of the DDI,
to attempt to get a better sense of what the Study Group was
trying to do and what they would expect from CIA. After a
one hour luncheon conversation and a one hour discussion
following, and I both were impressed that the Group had 25X1A
no clearer Ldea of their objectives now than they revealed in
their Plann.ng Memorandum No. 2, dated 3 April. Most of the
members did not appear to be familiar enough with the economies
of the MiddLe East countries to have precise ideas about what
an economic annex to their study should contain. At the request
of several nembers, I offered to see if a packet of helpful
materials could be collected for their use. (If so, I will
give it to for transmittal.)
2. and I both stressed that the disparate nature
of the area encompassed in their study presented problems in
trying to goneralize on trends and prospects. The group
hastened to agree, but expressed the hope that contributions
would rise above individual country or sub-group observations
whenever poesible.
3. Sone oomments by members of the group suggested that
considerable detail might be expected on such things as agrarian
patterns, soil and water, and prospects for technological progress
in the area during the next ten years. I pointed out that we
have only half a dozen or so economic analysts assigned to
follow the entire area of their study and that these persons are
heavily committed to NI E and NIS work as well as policy support
and that cousequently their expertise was not very deep on
some aspecte of these economies. The group stated that they
probably would be satisfied with less detail than some of their
working notes might imply. Nevertheless, they observed that
ambassador Holmes was much impressed with the Importance of
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technology to the area and that they would want an annex on
technology :!rom the DIVS&T. I lie writing a memo to the
DDI on our meting and will inform him of this.
4. Tho group indicated that AMbassador Holmes hoped
that by 28 April firm requests could be sent to contributors
and that tho study could be completed by 15 or 30 July, but
they thought September or October would be more realistic.
I stated that the economic annexes quite likely could take
2 months to complete.
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MENDRAMMIKR: De Director for Intelligence
FROM
SUBJECT : Julius Holmes Study Croup
April 1967
1. On 20 April assistant 25X1A
and I visited the Julius Holmes Study Group and discussed its 25X1A
proposed requirements levied on CIA.
2. The group is comfortably enmconsed in &suite of
rooms in the JCS area complete with conference rooms and batboy
to keep the coffee urns filled and a supply of clean coffee cups
on hand.
3. July 15 is the presumed target date of the study,
but the group's members admit that Septetber or October are
more realistic. Around 28 April Holmes plans to present
target dates for inputs to the Senior Group.
4. I gave the group's members
a rundown on ORR's methods and manner or
operations, otressing that lengthy studies simply could not
be produced uithin the group's time span and that it would
have to be satisfied with fairly brief essays.
emphasized this point and attempted to get them to focus on
specific questions and reasonable requests. HO stated that
it would take ORR about 2 months to produce the requested
data in essay form.
5. Discussion was carried out with regard to the questions
on technolog.cal changes. It seems to me that queries of this
sort will halre to be banded by D.D.S. and T.
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6. Our aeneral invession of the group is that it is
still floundering around not knowing exactly yet what it wants.
Its heavy legacy in thought and pereammel from the Chinese
'Study is a dinadvantage. We pointed out the absolute leek of
boolgeneity in the Area studied.
T. The Away mow is projected 10 years ahead in many
cases, not 5 :rears as originally envisioned.
3. Ream etendations:
A. A control over the CIA lava oa the Communi
Chinese aspect be instituted. At present
is producing a paper for the group, but no
procese has been instituted to wry knowledge.
B. CIA repiesentation on the group should be
maintained in its present form until the study begins
to take shape, then we should step in ancLactively
participete. Drafts of certain aspects of the studY
are now 'keine worked up by the group. Frankly, I WY*:
that another presence would be 4 waste of time; the
Group siepay is not proceeding rapidly enough to warrant
another ierson. I do feel, however, that more forceful
and authcritative CIA representation will be necessary
later on.
C. I suggest that the CIS Alternate touch base with
the &Ivey on a regular basis to keep up with its thinking,
progress, and personnel. The some should be the case for
a representative of ORR.
9. I came away 'with a feeling of dismay.
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MEMORANDUM FOR:
00100260020A
25X1A
SSDSG -006
17 April 1967
25X1A
SUBJECT : Group's .Thinking? on Technological
Developments in the Area.
1. Memoranda relating to Amb. Holmes' visits with AEC
and the Scientific Advisor to the President were submitted
principally to alert the Agency as to the trend of thinking
which has pervaded the Group. There is perhaps a somewhat
disproportionate reliance upon the miracle of technological
development within the next decade which might so completely
change the complexion of the area that conclusions reached
today may not hold ten years hence. The meetings described
have had a cooling effect but the underlying premise continues.
2. Not less than the technological progress of startling
proportions in the development of the area, technology plays
an important role in the effort to foresee the future of the
great U.S. communications installations. Will Wheelus have
to be vacated? What about Asmara? Landing rights?
Overflights? Ability to deploy Military Task Forces wherever
needed? Clearly, the thinking is not entirely technological,
but is influenced by political considerations. In short,
how U.S. interests will be affected when:
a) Technology permits U.S. withdrawals;
b) U.S. withdrawals become inevitable
because of political pressures.
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4110
14 April 1967
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
25X1A
SUBJECT:
Meeting with the DD/I on Special State-Defense
Study
on the Middle
East, 13 April 1967
PRESENT:
E.J. Smith,
1. The DD/I announced that the State Defense Study Group
was now the State-Defense-CIA Group, since the Director was par-
ticipating at the top level and the DD/I was a member of the
Senior Policy Group. In this connection, the DD/I alluded to
the China study on which CIA had made a heavy input without
having any control, except as coordinator, over the final product.
2. The DD/I is thinking about appointing as
the DD/I monitor for the project. J Jfears being caught up
in a morass of bureaucracy and paper-pushing, and doesn't quite
know whether to be enthusiastic about this possible designation
or to resist.
25X1A
25X1A
3. has visited the headquarters of the project at 25X1A
the Pentagon and is not much impressed so far. ORR will be asked
to write annexes on "Economic Trends and Prospects" and "Petroleum".
He said that in his view, the project managers did not really know
what they wanted. I remarked that there was some evidence of this
from the terms of reference passed out at the meeting (Planning
Memorandum No. 2, Subject, "Initial Task Assignments," dated 3 April
1967). I 3ommented particularly on the difficulty of writing on
economic trends and prospects for a Middle Eastern area which was
defined to include the Maghreb, the eastern Arab states, the south
Arabian states, the Persian Gulf states, and the Horn of Africa
(Ethiopia, French Somaliland, Somalia, but not Kenya or Tanzania). 25X1A
4. is apparently taking
he wants to manipulate the mix of n"? his usual attitude --
participation and responsi- 25X1A
bility from time-to-time to suit himself. also disapproves
of the use of this group to make the study; he believes that studies 25X1A
of this kind should be accomplished through the IRG machinery, which
he believes, according to to be the wave of the future. 25X1A
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5. The DD/I asked to visit the project managers 25X1A
once again and attempt to get a better sense of what they were after.
Among other things, he is to arrange for a meeting with ORB, so that
the ORB contribution can be discussed.
6. I have the following impression of the DD/I's position: he
wants CIA to participate and is pleased that this participation now
includes membership in the control groups. At the same time, the
study is nct one which the DD/I himself would have recommended
undertaking, or which he feels will be terribly useful. In short,
the DD/I aIpears to be accepting the project as a fait accompli;
CIA participation is necessary to assure a good job and some CIA
voice in determining the shape of the final product.
-2-
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