OER SUPPORT FOR HOLMES PROJECT ON THE MIDDLE EAST

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70S00385R000100260011-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2002
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: July 24, 1967
• Content Type: MFR

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MEMORANDUM FOE THE RECORD
24 July 1967
SURTECT: OER Support for Holmes Project on the Middle East
1. Attached is all the correspondence I could find concerning
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the Holmes Project from its inception to date.
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2. The terms of reference for the Holmes Study and the initial
task assignments are shown in Attachment ~'. Initially, the Holmes
Group wanted,t o draft ?-Annexes:
Economic Trends and Prospects (Annex E); ~troleum (Annex F)
; Cwo-~ lv-s,(%
I have also had oral exchanges with
CIA man on the Holmes Group.
U a < e C. o r s f t ,C. I-0
Technological Development (Annex G). Information was also requested
from CIA on Annex D, the Soviet Role, although this annex was to be
drafted by Siscoe, one of the State members of the Group.
3. In the latter part of April,
Economic Trends and Prospects, Technology, and Communist Economic
Relations with the Middle East The economic questions were examined
with a view to informing the Group as to what support they could
expect from CIS.. No action was taken on the questions concerning
the Communist role. Most of these questions are answered in the E.I.C.
semi-annual, n#cme general guidelines were also provided on the
Technological Annex.
some further elaborations of the Group requirements on
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4. Attachment 3 shows how CIA support for the Holmes Project
was organized.
CIA's interest.
the Holmes Group on 21 April.
as assigned by the DDI to look after
Iaccompanied
to a meeting with
did not feel that the study was particularly useful,
but believed that CIA participation was necessary to assure a good
job and might gave time in the long run.
5. CIA's original commitments for support of the Holmes Project
are shown in Attachment 4. I prepared a memorandum for
0
(and the DDI) on 28 April, outlining what I thought we could do.
On 2 May,
and I met with the Holmes Group (without Holmes),
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and I obtained taciiragreement on the sort of piece I had in mind.
This agreement was formalized in a 17 May memo from me to
which indicated that we had already sent the Group 25X1A
all pertinent existing reports, and that we would in addition
prepare an essay on general economic trends and prospects in the
area which wou:_d at least touch on most of the questions the Group
is asking.
6. Various progress reports are shown in Attachment 5. These
show that the Group was having difficulty preparing its technological
memo to the DDI lists the papers CIA had
sent the Group:, stresses the limitations of any economic study,
indicates that the then expected ONE memo on world oil would satisfy
/s
the Group requirements on this question, and recommends that CIA's
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contribution to the technological annex be limited to a review of
the findings on this subject. Apparently, the Group continued to
expect a petrcleum annex prepared by CIA. The deadline for the
economic annex was informally agreed to be 30 June; in my
I set a probable date of 15 June.
7. Work on the Holmes Project ceased in OER during the Arab-
Israel War and its immediate aftermath. It was generally assumed
that the Holmes Project would be postponed or even cancelled.
I received 2 or 3 calls from
to inquire about the
status of the study and told him it was in suspense. He indicated
no particular lrgency. About 3 July the Agency was informed that
Holmes intended to stick to his original schedule of completing a
full draft of the study by mid-July.
from the DDI t]Zrough
OER then prepa:ed an
on, July.
acknowledged receipt of the outline and the
Group offered no comments or criticism.
informally on he problem of the oil annex and was very vague indeed
as to whether there would be such an annex. He indicated that
ONE, had given him a preliminary draft of the paper
on world oil, but that it might not be useable in its present form.
asked if we could prepare the petroleum annex, and I
answered that we had made no commitment along these lines.
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obtained permission
to postpone the OER due date to 14 July.
outline of its paper and sent it to
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8. OER sent
its draft of the economic annex on 25X1A
14 July through This annex conforms closely to the 25X1A
'L, ' c ar
S
outline sent,~.e earlier. It does not discuss in any detail
In particular it does not give detailed data on foreign aid, on trade
with Communist countries and on military expenditures. However, the
paper is consistent with the general description and tone of the
commitment.
9. On about 12 April, I received preliminary drafts of the
technological annex, which had been prepared by a Department of
Interior employee detailed to the Group. This paper is highly
unrealistic since it ignores political boundaries and attitudes
and takes financing for granted. Apparently, Holmes finally had
found someone who "thought big" in this area. We prepared commitments
and sent a copy to Andronovitch.
all of the topics which I had listed in my 17 May memo to
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also handed me a paper on Middle East oil,
wanting to know whether we thought it could serve as a basis for
an oil annex. I passed the paper iW to
had a lot of problems with it, as shown
does not want it published on the
grounds that it uses almost exclusively his piece out of context
and-is not very judicioudZ' Blocked in this area, the Holmes Group
apparently would like the petroleum part of the economic annex to
be beefed up.
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11. The main text and other annexes of the Holmes study
were also received. OER comments are being prepared in writing.( 1k7 C(AIC -
ct i uv{tiorC - u.c pt,44 4 J
OCI also will comment.
12. In this entire exercise, we were under instructions to do
the minimum that would satisfy the Group. The Group never had a
very clear idea of what it wanted and
was neither an 25X1 A
effective protector of CIA interests nor an effective channel for
communicating the Group's desires to CIA. More could be done to
support the Group, although I doubt that the additional work would
turn up anything really useful.
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