VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 65-55: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA THROUGH 1955, PUBLISHED 1 MARCH 1955

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP61-00549R000300010001-1
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
2
Document Creation Date: 
November 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 5, 2000
Sequence Number: 
1
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Publication Date: 
August 9, 1956
Content Type: 
STUDY
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PDF icon CIA-RDP61-00549R000300010001-1.pdf59.21 KB
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Approved For Release 2000/00IICRf-lK-RDP61-00549R000300010001-1 IAC-D-100/20 9 August 1956 INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY C O M M I T T E E Validity Study of NIE 65-55: Probable Developments in Indonesia Through 1955, published 1 March 1955 The attached validity study of NIE 65-55, "Probable Developments in Indonesia Through 1955, " published 1 March 1955, was noted by the IAC on 7 August 1956 (IAC-M-251, item 15 c). 25X1A Secretary Approved For Release 2000/04,C147RDP61-00549R000300010001-1 Approved For Release 2000/041f*t',[ PI-RDP61-00549R000300010001-1 IAC-D-100/20 9 August 1956 Validity Study of NIE 65-55: Probable Developments in Indonesia Through 1955, published 1 March 1955 1. One of the major conclusions of NIE 65-55, "that a government dominated by:the Masjumi will probably emerge following the elections" has been proven invalid by events. This conclusion was based on the estimate that the election would be a three-cornered race between the Masjumi, the PNI, and the PKI, and that the Masjumi would win the most seats in the Parliament. We believed it would be able to form a coalition government either with one or more of the smaller parties or by drawing away the right wing of the PNI. In fact, however, the Masjumi received a somewhat smaller popular vote than the PNI and the same number of seats. Moreover, instead of there being but three major parties, the election resulted in four: PNI, Masjumi, NU, and PKI. In this situa- tion it was the PNI rather than the Masjumi that played the leading role in organizing a cabinet. The major factor in this incorrect estimate of the outcome of the elections was a failure to appreciate the strength of NU, which was able to gain a sufficiently large share of the Moslem votes to reduce Masjumi strength substantially and to become the third largest party. 2. The other major conclusion, that Communist popular strength was increasing and that the Communists would not resort to force during the period of the estimate has proven valid. Approved For Release 2000/04MCICJWRDP61-00549R000300010001-1