NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 18 MAY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010059-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 23, 2008
• Sequence Number: 59
• Publication Date: May 18, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
18 May 1982
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Top Secret
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Contents
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USSR-Poland: New Signs of Soviet Concern
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Dominican Republic: Election Results
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South Africa - Angola: Air Attaeks
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Yugoslavia: New Government
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USSR-Vietnam: Use of Vietnamese Labor
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To Secret
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USSR-POLAND: New Signs of Soviet Concern
Party secretary Rusakov, who is responsible for rela-
tions with the East European countries, yesterday began
a "friendly working visit" to Poland. His trip coincided
with the appearance in Pravda. of a lengthy article accusing
the US of using Radio Free Europe broadcasts to aggravate
the situation in Poland. The Polish news agency has re-
ported a "full convergence of views" between Rusakov and
the Foreign Minister, but not with Premier Jaruzelski,
on bilateral relations.
Comment: Rusakov's purpose probably is to obtain
a firsthand assessment of the situation and to encourage
a continued tough response. The Polish agency report
suggests that he is more satisfied with Poland's han-
dling of its foreign affairs than with the handling of
the recent disturbances. The Pravda article appears
aimed at diverting attention from the internal causes
of the recent Polish disturbances and perhaps at direct-
ing West German sentiment against Radio Free Europe as
a threat to peaceful East-West relations.
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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Election Results
With 25 percent of the vote tallied, ruling party
Senator Jorge Blanco is the projected winner of the gen-
erally violence-free presidential race. He is leading
by 14 percentage points over former President Balaguer.
Jorge Blanco claimed victory early yesterday, and, to
reassure the conservative military, announced that his
administration would not establish relations with Cuba.
He also said that he would travel to Central and South
America, Western Europe, and the US before his inaugura-
tion to strengthen bilateral ties and seek aid for his
country's current economic problems.
Comment: Jorge Blanco is aware that the military
and other conservative elements remain uneasy about his
political ideology, and he will concentrate on calming
their fears. The armed forces will carefully monitor
the activities of his more radical advisers, especially
the rulin art 's controversial Secretar eneral Pen
Gomez.
SOUTH AFRICA - ANGOLA: Air Attacks
//South Africa is continuing its air attacks into
southern Angola. The Angolans claim that South African
aircraft attacked Army installations and civilian eco-
nomic targets at Cahama, Jamba, Cassinga, and other
airstri es could be in retaliation for recent South-West
Africa People's Organization attacks into Namibia. At
least two of the targets Angola claims were hit have
been sites of SWAPO bases, althou h their current status
is not known.
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YUGOSLAVIA: New Government
The makeup of the new federal government installed
on Saturday suggests that Belgrade seriously intends to
pursue new solutions to the country's economic difficul-
ties. Many ministers who held their jobs on the basis
of cronyism rather than talent have been replaced.
Although Premier Planinc lacks experience in economic
matters, most of her advisers--including the influential
and capable Vice Premier Dragan--have extensive expertise.
Similarly, the previously announced changes in the
Ministries of Defense, Interior, and Foreign Affairs
also put in place officials with established reputations
at home and abroad.
Comment: The Yugoslavs clearly made their choices
with an eye to creating a good impression in international
business and banking communities, which have become in-
creasingly skeptical of the prospects for all the East
European economies.
USSR-VIETNAM: Use of Vietnamese Labor
A largely voluntary program by Hanoi to send polit- 25X1
ically reliable laborers to the USSRLand_Eastern Europe
ll"~ "~??`".. --- Most will
work in Siberia, but the volunteers are said to welcome
such jobs as a way to make more money and evade military 25X1
service. Workers spend three to five years in manual
labor or in administrative positions, with 60 percent
of their wages deducted to help pay Vietnam's sizable
financial debt to the USSR. Between 100,000 and 500,000
laborers reportedly are expected to participate in the
program by 1985 under the terms of labor export agreements
concluded between tnam and the USSR and Eastern 25X1
Europe last year.
Comment: Vietnam's high unemployment probably
makes forced participation unnecessary in most cases,
despite some recent reports that many Vietnamese are
coerced into the program. Although the program will
not result in a substantial increase in the labor force
in the USSR and Eastern Europe, it evidently reflects
the Soviets' will' ess to tr any scheme to shore up
the labor force.
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