ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS
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Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI 83-024
2 December /983
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
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Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart)
8
9
9
10
11
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Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
United States
-3.6
2.6
-8.1
9.9
18.4
21.5
19.8
9.8
Japan
4.7
1.0
0.4
3.6
6.5
12.3
5.8
West Germany
-0.8
-2.7
-3.1
5.1
8.1
1.4
0.0
France
-0.7
-2.6
-1.5
2.1
4.2
United Kingdom
-6.4
-5.1
1.5
4.8
0.7
6.2
1.2
Italy
5.5
-2.4
-2.2
-1.9
-10.4
-4.9
Canada
-1.5
0.9
-10.7
22.3
27.3
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Constant Market Prices; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
United States
-0.3
2.6
-1.9
2.6
9.7
7.9
Japan
4.8
3.9
2.9
0.9
3.6
West Germany
1.8
-0.2
-1.1
2.5
4.3
France
1.1
0.2
1.7
United Kingdom
-2.1
-2.2
1.4
8.6
-7.1
Italy
3.9
0.1
-0.3
1.7
-6.5
Canada
1.0
3.4
-4.4
7.6
7.5
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
United States
13.5
10.3
6.2
-0.4
4.2
4.8
Japan
8.0
4.9
2.6
0.6
1.1
0.3
9.8
West Germany
5.5
6.0
5.3
0.5
1.4
5.1
2.2
France
13.5
13.3
12.0
11.0
10.6
9.1
United Kingdom
18.0
11.9
8.6
3.5
1.9
7.8
6.1
Italy
21.2
19.3
16.4
13.4
14.2
12.6
19.8
Canada
10.2
12.5
10.8
3.0
4.2
6.5
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Money Supply, M-1
Percent Change From Previous Period
(Based on Amounts in National Currency Units; Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
United States e
6.2
7.1
6.5
Japan
0.8
3.7
7.1
West Germany
2.3
1.2
3.6
France
8.5
12.6
13.9
United Kingdom
4.5
NA
NA
Italy
15.8
11.2
11.6
Canada
6.4
4.0
1.0
a Including M1-A and M1-B.
Unemployment Rate e
Percent
(Seasonally adjusted)
lst Qtr
2d Qtr
Aug
Sep
Oct
14.8
12.8
2.8
0.9
1.4
-0.2
0.2
-32.1
21.5
21.5
11.2
4.4
-6.2
6.3
12.1
9.8
16.6
10.4
-2.9
11.8
6.1
27.3
11.6
10.8
0.6
-3.1
United States
7.1
7.5
9.6
Japan
2.0
2.2
2.4
West Germany
3.9
5.6
7.7
France
6.3
7.6
8.4
United Kingdom
6.4
10.0
11.7
Italy
7.6
8.4
9.1
Canada
7.5
7.6
11.1
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
10.2
10.0
9.3
8.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
8.8
9.6
9.6
9.4
8.4
8.6
8.5
8.7
12.5
12.6
12.4
12.3
9.8
9.9
9.8
12.5
12.4
11.7
11.1
a Unemployment rates for France are estimated. For comparison
with the US rate, the rates for France and the United Kingdom
should be increased by 5 percent and 15 percentrespectively.Italian
rates should be decreased by 50 percent; the rates for Japan,
Canada, and West Germany are comparable to US rates.
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Billion US $, f.o.b.
(Seasonally Adjusted)
United States a
Exports 220.7
Imports 245.0
Balance -24.3
233.5
261.0
-27.5
212.3
244.0
-31.6
50.5
58.6
-8.1
48.6
62.3
-13.7
50.6
66.9
-16.3
17.4
22.2
~.8
Japan
Exports 126.3
Imports 124.7
Balance 1.6
149.5
129.5
20.1
138.3
119.8
18.4
35.5
28.6
6.9
35.5
27.6
7.9
36.2
27.9
8.3
12.1
9.8
2.3
West Germany
Exports 193.0
Imports n 188.0
Balance 4.9
175.3
163.4
11.9
176.4
155.3
21.1
43.6
38.1
5.5
43.1
38.9
4.2
41.5
37.7
3.8
14.0
12.9
1.1
France
Exports 116.0
Imports 130.1
Balance -14.1
106.3
115.6
-9.3
96.4
110.5
-14.0
23.9
27.3
-3.5
23.4
25.1
-1.7
23.3
23.7
-0.4
7.7
7.7
0
United Kingdom
Exports 110.2
Imports 107.2
Balance 3.0
102.5
96.1
6.4
97.0
93.5
3.6
22.6
22.9
-0.3
22.8
23.8
-1.0
22.4
23.0
-0.6
7.8
7.6
0.2
Italy
Exports 78.0
Imports 100.3
Balance -22.3
75.4
91.4
-15.9
74.2
87.0
-12.8
18.9
21.8
-2.9
18.2
19.6
-1.4
17.8
20.3
-2.5
6.1
6.9
-0.9
Canada
Exports 65.9
Imports 58.4
Balance 7.5
70.5
64.3
6.2
68.6
53.7
14.8
16.9
13.6
3.3
18.4
14.2
4.2
18.6
15.3
3.3
6.3
5.4
0.9
a Imports are customs values.
b Imports are c.i.f.
Current Account Balance e
Billion US $
1980
1981
1982
1983
1st Qtr
2d Qtr Jul
Aug
Sep
United States 0.4
4.6
-11.2
-3.6
-9.7
Japan -10.7
4.8
6.9
1.4
6.3 2.9
1.4
2.7
West Germany -16.5
-6.8
3.4
1.7
0.8 -1.2
-1.3
-0.2
France -7.8
-5.5
-12.1
-3.6
United Kingdom 7.0
NA
9.3
1.2
-0.5 -0.3
0
0.4
Italy -9.7
-8.5
-5.8
-2.0
Canada -0.9
-4.8
2.4
0.2
0.9
a Converted to US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
b Seasonally adjusted.
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Export Prices in US $
Percent Change From Previous Peri
od at an Annua
l Rate
1980
1981
1982
United States
10.6
9.2
1.5
Japan
6.6
5.5
-6.4
West Germany
7.2
-15.2
-3.0
France
11.7
-12.0
-5.5
United Kingdom
22.5
NA
-7.3
Italy
17.4
-7.8
-3.3
Canada
17.4
3.9
-2.3
Import Prices in US $
Percent Change From Previous Per
iod at an Annu
al Rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Aug
Sep
3.1
1.5
10.6
-7.2
-12.5
49.6
14.0
-10.8
-84.8
5.7
13.0
-16.6
-23.5
-14.0
15.7
-3.4
-14.1
3.3
-11.1
1.1
-31.9
1983
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Aug
Sep
United States
27.3
5.3
-2.0
-12.3
-4.3
Japan
35.5
3.6
-7.3
-4.1
-18.4
-23.5
20.3
West Germany
15.7
-8.3
-5.4
-3.1
-13.4
France
19.4
-7.8
-7.2
3.7
-19.4
-25.1
United Kingdom
24.2
NA
-6.1
-11.0
7.2
Italy
26.1
1.1
-7.3
1.4
-31.1
Canada
16.8
8.7
-1.1
-2.1
-12.2
66.0
-32.4
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Exchange Rate Trends
Percent Change From Previous Period at
an Annual Ra
te
1980
1981
1982
1983
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Trade-Weighted
United States
-0.4
10.5
10.6
-6.0
9.2
Japan
-4.2
9.3
-5.7
46.5
5.2
West Germany
0.2
-2.1
7.0
10.4
4.2
France
0.5
-5.1
-6.1
6.7
-16.9
United Kingdom
9.8
2.5
-2.1
-31.1
24.3
Italy
~.1
-9.2
-5.1
4.5
-~.9
Canada
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
1.4
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
-3.5
2.7
-12.8
31.5
~.1
6.6
39.2
West Germany
0.8
-24.6
-7.2
14.1
-13.4
-16.0
26.6
France
0.7
-28.7
-20.8
10.1
-38.2
-20.2
16.0
United Kingdom
9.6
-13.2
-13.4
-25.3
5.5
33.8
-0.2
Italy
-3.1
-32.8
-18.8
9.4
-23.8
-15.1
14.4
Canada
0.2
-2.5
-2.9
1.7
-1.2
2.7
0.5
Money Market Rates
United States
90.day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
t;nance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3?month deposits
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Agricultural Prices
1980
1981
1982
Beef (? per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b., US Ports)
125.9
113.5
108.7
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
104.3
100.0
101.4
Cocoa
(? per pound)
113.5
89.8
74.3
Coffee
(S per pound)
1.54
1.28
1.40
Corn
(Central Illinois No. 2 yellow,
S per bushel)
3.01
3.14
2.42
Cotton
(Memphis middling
1 1 / 16 inch, S per pound)
0.8219
0.7243
0.6073
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
S per metric ton)
c.i.f.
583.08
570.67
445
,
Rice
(New Orlwns
No. 2, milled f.o.b.,
S per metric ton)
496
565
367
Soybeans
(Central Illinois No. 1~ yellow,
S per bushel)
6.95
6.98
5.86
Soybean Oil
(S per pound)
0.2375
0.2129
0.1837
Sugar
9.43
(World raw London,
bulk ? per pound)
28.63
16.88
8.42
Wheat
(Kansas City No. 2 hard
winter, S per bushel)
4.33
4.36
4.00
Ftwd Index a
232
203
167
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 16 food
commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
109.2
112.9
111.8
111.8
111.5
96.7
104.9
95.5
92.6
91.0
80.5
90.3
97.4
93.0
91.3
1.26
1.26
1.30
1.32
1.41
2.59
3.10
3.43
3.46
3.36
0.6311
0.6755
0.7163
0.7097
0.7240
372
415
547
657
677
368
375
386
386
386
5.71
6.06
7.80
8.73
8.25
0.1711
0.1953
0.2873
0.3436
0.3062
6.21
8.75
10.19
9.43
9.76
4.07
4.05
3.82
3.89
3.83
164
178
194
199
199
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Major US producer
71.6
77.3
76.0
76.0
76.0
77.7
81.0
81.0
LME cash
80.8
57.4
44.9
54.2
64.6
71.7
73.5
71.1
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, S per metric ton)
55.0
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
Copper a
(bar, ? per pound)
98.7
79.0
67.1
72.6
77.7
74.0
70.8
65.2
Gold
(S per troy ounce)
612.1
460.0
375.5
465.1
426.9
417.6
413.7
394.1
Lead a
(? per pound)
41.1
32.9
24.7
20.7
19.7
18.2
18.3
19.0
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, S per long ton)
78.5
82.1
79.9
78.2
75.4
69.8
69.8
69.8
Nickel (S per pound)
Composite US producer
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
LME Cash
3.0
2.7
2.2
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
Platinum (S per troy ounce)
Major producer
439.5
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
677.0
446.0
326.7
444.3
419.2
434.9
432.0
396.0
Rubber (? per pound)
Synthetic t,
40.6
47.5
45.7
48.1
40.9
44.3
44.4
NA
Natural a
73.8
56.8
45.4
49.8
56.8
59.2
59.9
59.9
Silver
(S per troy ounce)
20.7
10.5
7.9
12.3
12.1
12.0
12.0
9.9
Steel Scrap a
(S per long ton)
91.2
92.0
63.1
67.0
69.7
74.6
77.1
xA
Tina
(? per pound)
761.3
641.4
581.6
580.9
615.1
587.0
580.9
587.3
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
S per metric ton)
18,219
18,097
13,426
10,356
11,118
9,857
9,946
10,041
US Steel
(composite,
S per long ton)
486.2
543.5
567.3
582.3
587.2
590.6
597.4
NA
Zinc a
(? per pound)
34.4
38.4
33.7
31.0
32.5
36.1
38.2
38.9
Lumber Index e
(1975 =100)
167
159
140
187
202
187
177
NA
Industrial
Materials Index f
184
166
142
142
154
158
156
152
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
c Quoted on New York market.
a Average of No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 11 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
t The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
19 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
59,469
55,818
53,053
Non-Communist countries
45,244
41,593
38,803
Developed countries
12,859
13,579.
13,276
United States
8,597
8,572
8,658
Canada
1,424
1,285
1,270
United Kingdom
1,619
1,811
2,094
Norway
528
501
518
Other
691
717
736
Non-OPEC LDCs
5,444
6,027
6,636
Mexico
1,937
2,312
2,749
Egypt
595
598
665
Other
2,912 ~ ~
3,117
3,222
OPEC
26,941
22,680
18,891
Algeria
1,020
803
701
Ecuador
204
211
211
Gabon
175
151
154
Indonesia
1,576
1,604
1,314
Iran
1,662
1,381
2,282
Iraq
2,514
993
972
Kuwait b
1,389
947
663
Libya
1,830
1,137
1,183
Neutral Zone ~
544
370
317
Nigeria
2,058
1,445
1,298
Qatar
471
405
328
Saudi Arabian
9,631
9,625
6,327
UAE
1,702
1,500
1,248
Venezuela
2,165
2,108
1,893
Communist countries
14,225
14,225
14,250
USSR
11,700
11,790
11,800
China
2,118
2,024
2,040
Other
407
411
410
e Preliminary.
n Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
1983
Jul
Aug
Sep
53,950
54,277
39,270
39,574
13,684
13,862
8,695
8,648
8,683
1,214
1,515
2,280
2,290
2,387
652
561
843
848
6,818
6,976
2,687
2,774
2,712
695
708
3,436
3,494
18,768
18,736
18,955
700
700
700
225
261
239
170
160
150
1,300
1,350
1,350
2,800
2,500
2,700
1,000
1,000
950
850
950
1,150
1,100
1,100
1,150
468
460
453
1,712
1,300
1,218
298
265
309
5,300
5,800
5,700
1,150
1,160
1,160
1,695
1,730
1,726
14,680
14,703
14,405
12,363
12,386
11,900
2,107
2,107
2,085
210
210
420
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
{!
f Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
17,006
16,058
15,296
Japan
4,674
4,444
4,204
West Germany
2,356
2,120
2,024
France
1,965
1,744
1,632
United Kingdom
1,422
1,325
1,345
Italy b
1,602
1,705
1,618
Canada
1,730
1,617
1,454
e Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
14,772
15,484
14,779
14,250
15,281
14,913
15,240
15,240
4,882
4,618
3,852
3,461
4,039
2,053
2,182
1,940
2,010
2,000
1,986
1,68 5
1, 786
1, 500
1,405
1,209
1,209
1,417
1,431
1,313
1,227
1,257
1,161
1, 865
1,606
1,417
1,468
1,472
1, 365
1,458
1,280
1,192
1,309
1,357
United States
5,220
4,406
3,488
Japan
4,373
3,919
3,657
West Germany
1,953
1,591
1,451
France
2,182
1,804
1,596
United Kingdom
893
736
565
Italy
1,860
1,816
1,710
Canada
557
521
334
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
2,232
2,970
3,234
3,502
3,868
3,978
3,672
3,604
2,975
3,337
3,099
1,264
1,279
1,385
1,274
1,312
1,155
1,148
1,331
1,492
1,438
371
303
537
467
1,490
195
143
93
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
OPEC average n
18.67
30.87
34.50
33.63
28.69
28.70
A-geria
42? API 0.10%sulfur
19.65
37.59
39.58
35.79
30.50
30.50
Ecuador
28? API 0.93%sulfur
22.41
34.42
34.50
32.96
26.70
26.70
Gabon
29? API 1.26%sulfur
18.20
31.09
34.83
34.00
29.00
29.00
Indonesia
35? API 0.09%sulfur
18.35
30.55
35.00
34.92
29.53
29.53
Iran
Light
34? API 1.35%sulfur
19.45
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.00
28.00
Heavy
31 ? API 1.60% sulfur
18.49
33.60
35.57
29.15
27.10
27.10
Iraq ?
35? API 1.95%sulfur
18.56
30.30
36.66
34.86
29.43
29.43
Kuwait
31 ? API 2.50% sulfur
18.48
29.84
35.08
32.30
27.30
27.30
Libya
40? API 0.22%sulfur
21.16
36.07
40.08
35.69
30.40
30.40
Nigeria
34? API 0.16%sulfur
20.86
35.50
38.48
35.64
29.85
29.85
Qatar
19.72
31.76
37.12
34.56
29.49
29.49
40? API 1.17%sulfur '
Saudi Arabia
Berri
39? API 1.16%sulfur
19.33
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.50
29.50
Light
34? API 1.70%sulfur
17.26
28.67
32.50
34.00
29.00
29.00
Medium
31 ? API 2.40% sulfur
16.79
28.12
31.84
32.40
27.40
27.40
Heavy
27? API 2.85%sulfur
16.41
27.67
31.13
31.00
26.00
26.00
UAE
39? API0.7S%sulfur
19.81
31.57
36.42
34.74
29.56
29.56
Venezuela
26? API 1.52%sulfur
17.22
28.44
32.88
32.88
27.88
27.88
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
b Weighted by the volume of production.
? Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price
JV.6/
18.67
11.29 11.02 11.77 12.88 12.93
3.39
~~
~~
33.
37 33.
57 33.
53
32.
61
31.
74
30.41
31.08
28.72
28.77 28.75 28.72 28.69 28.70
23.55
20.14
17.08
13.79
Approved For Release 2008/05/16 :CIA-RDP84-008988000400050005-3