AFGHAN EXILE GROUPS BASED IN PAKISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R000600160008-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2005
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: January 9, 1980
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
National Foreign Assessment Center
9 January 1980
MEMORANDUM
Peshawar, on the Pakistani side of the Khyber Pass, has
for a century been the most important safehaven for Afghans
who oppose whatever regime may be in power in Kabul. Follow-
ing the Marxist coup in April 1978, the number of Peshawar-
based dissidents grew and there was a proliferation of
marginal and essentially ineffective "liberation groups".
Lacking meaningful financial support, the exile groups have
had at best a modest impact on the course of the insurgency.
Fragmentary reporting suggests they have provided insurgent
groups in.eastern Afghanistan with some material assistance,
but the rebels' main source of arms has been stocks captured
from Afghan Army units or turned over by deserting Afghan
troops and bought from arms dealers in Pakistan. 2X1
The numerous fragmented and feuding organizations acknow-
ledge no single leader and have made numerous unsuccessful
efforts to unify the Afghan exile opposition. An exile
leader's claim to the press after a recent meeting to have
united exile organizations to counter the new Soviet threat
is probably as insubstantial as earlier similar claims.
Among its leaders there is no figure with religious or polit-
ical stature comparable to Ayatollah Khomeini who could rally
national support against the Soviet-installed Kabul regime or
it
This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Political
Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may be
addressed to the Chief, Near East South Asia Division, OPA,
PA M 80-10012
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serve as the leader of a new government. The exile groups
probably do not have a sufficient number of technically
qualified members who could form a new government. It is
possible exile organizations could, however, contribute
a few cabinet-level officials to a national front govern-
ment made up of officials from former governments who might
have survived Communist purges since April 1978.
With the exception of one or possibly two groups that
have a small guerrilla capability, the exile organizations
do.not command forces that have been active in the Afghan
insurgency. One organization, the Islamic Party operates
a clandestine radio in the Pak-Afghan border area that has
probably made some impact in whipping up sentiment against
the "godless" Kabul regime. Some exile religious leaders,
moreover, are reported to cross the border into. Afghanistan
occasionally to buoy the morale of insurgent tribes res-
ponsive to their religious leadership.
The exile groups are likely to continue their infighting
and probably will have no more than.a marginal effect on the
course of the insurgency unless Pakistan takes the lead in
trying to unite or at minimum. increase the coordination among
the diverse groups.. Without the assistance of Pakistan, more-
over, the establishment of an exile command and control
structure that could coordinate insurgent military action on
a national scale would be beyond the capability of the Afghan
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The exile groups are the source of numerous misleading
if not false stories that have appeared in the press on
various aspects of the insurgency. Some of these stories
allege the exiles exert command and control over guerrilla
groups operating in Afghanistan. Other accounts have made
exaggerated claims of rebel "victories" and, since Soviet
intervention, of Soviet offensives against rebel strongholds.
There are scores of exile groups based in Pakistan that
have political. and religious roots in Afghanistan of varying
significance. The four most important, in approximate order
of their significance, are the following:
-- The Islamic Party (Hizbi-Islami). Probably the best
organized of the dissident organizations,the Islamic
Party is led by Gul Buddin Hekmatyar, also known
simply as Gul Buddin.
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u u in s group pro a y
has conducted a few raids in Afghanistan since the
Marxists took power in 1978 and it may pass some
arms to insurgent groups operating in Afghanistan.
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The Islamic Party is somewhat more
secular in outlook than other exile groups and
Gul Buddin's rejection of the monarchy as a possible
alternative to the present regime has tended to
isolate him from other exile leaders. The Islamic
Party was represented at the recent meeting at
which the groups in attendance claimed'to have
succeeded in their effort to unite their organi-
zations. Gul.Buddin's group has roots in the area
between Ghazni and Qandahar and is most active
there. t
-- The Afghan Islamic and National Revolutionary
Council (Jabbah-Azadibakhsh Islami) also known as
the National Front for Islamic Revolution of
Afghanistan. The Council is headed by Sayed Ahmad
Gailani (also known as Effendi Jan) who is an
important pir or religious leader who claims to
have a following of 100,000 in the eastern provinces.
Described I las the exile
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Muslim leader with the most modern outlook,
Gailani's political strength is based on his
religious following. He is related to the Iraqi
Ambassador to Pakistan of the same name but it is
not known whether this personal tie equates to a
connection with the Iraqi Government.
The Afghan Islamic League (Jamiat-Islami-Afghani).
They League is headed by Burhanuddin Rabbani, a
former professor of Islamic Studies at Kabul
University. The organization reportedly receives
some financial support from a small, conservative
political party in Pakistan and.is affiliated with
another Afghan dissident organization, the Afghan
National Liberation Front. Rabbani's group re-
portedly has a military arm but its mission and
capability are unknown.
The Afghan National Liberation Front (Jabhe-I-Negat-
I-Melli). The group's leader, Sebqatullah Mojededi,
is a member of an important religious family that
has a following in Kabul and other urban centers
of eastern Afghanistan. An Islamic scholar,.
Mojededi reportedly has good contacts in Saudi
Arabia and Libya. He claims to represent the Front's
"real" leader Prince Abdul Wali, cousin and son-in-
law to King Zahir. (S NF)
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