ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 51
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 29, 2008
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: August 3, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Economic Intelligence
Weekly Review
DOE review
completed.
State Dept.
review
completed
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW
3 August 1978
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Slow Economic Growth
Economic progress has fallen victim to internal political strife, sluggish
world demand for the region's exports, recurring drought, and widespread
mismanagement.
Belgium: Waiting for Its Neighbors
The government of Prime Minister Leo Tindemans, which has applied stop-
go economic policies for four years, has decided once again to put on the
fiscal brakes and wait for recovery in neighboring countries to give Belgium
a lift.
Brazil: Forging a Manufacturing Economy
Under the military government, the manufacturing sector has developed
Into an efficient producer of increasingly sophisticated capital goods and
consumer items.
Saudi Arabia: Facing Cash Flow Problems
While its basic financial strength remains enormous, Saudi Arabia needs to
Improve the coordination of its revenues and its outlays on the far-ranging
national development programs.
13
17
20
27
Notes 29
Soviet industrial Output Remains Sluggish
Coffee Producers Call for Export Quotas
Copper Negotiations Center on Relationship to UNCTAD
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH *
Most of the nations of sub-Saharan Africa have been unable to generate rapid
economic growth in the 1970s. Economic progress has fallen victim to civil wars and
coups, which in turn partly reflect the low level of economic development. Africa has
fallen steadily behind in the competition for export markets. Along with internal
political strife, sluggish world demand has hampered sales of non-oil minerals;
persistent drought in some areas and widespread mismanagement have cut shipments
of cash crops. Achievement of higher growth rates will require substantial increases in
foreign aid, greater foreign investment (especially in transport facilities), and a
backing off from -indigenization- policies. For most countries, little improvement in
these growth elements is in prospect for the next several years at least.
?
* This article summarizes a forthcoming OER Intelligence Report, Economic Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa. In it, the
terms "Africa" and "sub-Saharan" are defined to include all continental African countries except South Africa,
Namibia, and Arab North Africa?Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt Also included are the islands of
Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, Comoros, Reunion, Sao Tome and Principe, and the Cape Verde Islands.
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Faltering Economic Growth
Since 1970, the aggregate GNP of the sub-Saharan countries has risen only 4
percent a year on average, down from 4.5 percent in the 1960s, and only about 1
percent in per capita terms. Performance would have been much worse-2.8 percent
a year?without the strong oil-fueled growth of the Nigerian economy, which now
accounts for 30 percent of sub-Saharan output. Africa's growth pattern looks
particularly weak in contrast to the 6.9-percent annual average of all LDCs in the
1970s.
Growth has lagged across all economic sectors. Although food production (outside
the Sahel) has risen in most years since 1970, declines in the output of coffee, cocoa,
and peanuts have kept agricultural growth at 1.4 percent a year, compared with 3.8
percent in all LDCs. Starting from a very low base, real growth in manufacturing has
come closer to the LDC average-6.7 percent a year versus 7.1 percent. Only a few
non-oil minerals have done well, notably bauxite, which has been boosted by a large
expansion in Guinea.
Both political and economic factors have tended to undercut African economic
development in the 1970s:
? The sub-Sahara has suffered from 10 local wars and insurrections in the
past eight and one-half years; coups have taken place in 17 countries. The
civil war in Angola and the transition to independence in Mozambique have
proved particularly damaging economically, leading to sharp drops in output
of coffee, cashewnuts, and diamonds. More recently, the Shaba invasion
disrupted Zaire's copper and cobalt production and exports.
? The 1973/74 oil price hikes and global recession have sharply reduced
sales of major African commodities such as copper and sisal.
? Inflation of import costs, particularly for oil, has forced a number of
African countries to introduce austerity measures to cut foreign payments
deficits.
Overall data mask substantial variations in growth among individual sub-Saharan
countries. Nine have boosted national output 5 percent or more annually since 1970.
Of these, Botswana, Swaziland, Malawi, and Ivory Coast also have made noticeable
strides in spreading income gains among average citizens. In other leading growth
states, such as Nigeria and Gabon, prosperity has come as the result of the
development of one or two major commodities for export, and the benefits have been
confined largely to urban areas.
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1961-1970
1971-1977
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:
Real GNP Growth Trends
(Average annual rates)
Less than 3%
Benin
Central. African
- - -- Empire
Chad
Ghana
Mali
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3% to 4.9% 5% to 6.9% More than 7%
Mauritius
Burundi Madagascar
Angola
Botswana
Senegal
Cameroon Malawi
Congo, P.R.
Gabon
Somalia
Ethiopia Niger
Kenya
Ivory Cuss
Sudan
Gambia Nigeria
Mozambique
Mauritania
Upper Volta
Guinea Rhodesia
Sierra Leone
Swaziland
Zaire
Lesotho Zambia
Tanzania
Togo
Liberia
Uganda
Angola
Ghana
Senegal
Burundi
Mali
Guinea
Botswana
Benin
Lesotho
Sierra Leone
Cameroon
Rhodesia
Ivory Coast
Gabon
Central African
Madagascar
Somalia
Gambia
Sudan
Mauritius
Malawi
Empire
Mauritania
Togo
Kenya
Tanzania
Nigeria
Swaziland
Chad
Mozambique
Uganda
Liberia
Upper Volta
Rwanda
Congo, P.R.
Niger
Zaire
Ethiopia
Zambia
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Countries experiencing average growth of less than 3 percent a year generally
have suffered from political turmoil, a dearth of natural resources, or, in the case of
the Sahel, repeated drought.
Falling Behind in World Markets
Many of the same economic and political factors that have suppressed growth
have cost Africa world market shares in the 1970s, Growth in export volume averaged
only 2 percent in 1971-77. It may be even lower this year; copper exports in particular
are suffering, reflecting not only production problems at home but also stiff
competition of low-cost producers. Variable production costs for copper, for example,
average more than 60 cents a pound in Zambia compared with 50 cents in Chile.
Among agricultural exports, peanuts registered the steepest drop in market
share?frorn 72 percent in 1969-71 to 49 percent in 1975-77. The falloff mainly
reflects the impact of drought and disease on major producers, particularly Nigeria.
Formerly the world's leading exporter of peanuts, Nigeria has been forced to import
peanut oil the past two years.
The only dynamic element in the region's trade has been the sharp rise in
petroleum exports?of benefit principally to Nigeria?which at $11 billion in 1976
accounted for nearly one-half of total African exports.
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Terms of Trade, Trade Balances, and Foreign Debt: A Mixed Bag
The number of African countries that have gained from shifts in the terms of
trade in the 1970s about matches the number that have lost. At the extremes are those
benefiting from oil price increases (Nigeria, Gabon, and Angola) versus those hit by
declining copper prices (Zambia and Zaire). Copper-producing Zambia and Zaire have
been in arrears on import payments for several years, severely damaging their
international credit ratings. Sudan's growing deficit is requiring bailout aid from the
IMF.
Despite the plight of the big terms-of-trade losers, sub-Saharan Africa's foreign
debt amounts to only $15 billion, less than 10 percent of the non-OPEC LDC total.
Zaire, Zambia, Sudan, and Gabon account for nearly one-half. Except for these
countries, the debt service ratios of African countries remain well below the 15-
percent average for all LDCs.
Foreign Economic Role Still Strong
Low debt service ratios partially reflect the high proportion of grants and
concessional aid in international assistance?more than four-fifths of the $5 billion
received by Africa in 1976.
Africa now receives twice as much foreign economic aid per capita as the average
for all less developed regions?$14 versus $7. Although most is used to develop and
maintain infrastructure and social services, in recent years a growing proportion has
been required to cover foreign exchange deficits. DAC members remain the largest
aid donors; resource flows from OPEC countries have recently been growing. The
Francophone countries absorb the biggest share of the aid, accounting for 40 percent
of the total.
The stock of foreign private investment has increased in the 1970s, while the role
of foreign manpower has decreased:
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? The biggest investment jump has occurred in Nigeria, where the stock of
foreign capital has more than doubled since the mid-1960s due to the oil
boom; in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, the value of investment has risen by
60 percent.
? Foreign manpower has decreased steadily in almost all major countries
except Nigeria, Gabon, and Ivory Coast; in Angola and Mozambique, where
fear of political turmoil drove out the great majority of the Portuguese, the
foreign presence has been drastically reduced.
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Outlook
The chronic problems of political turmoil, inexperience in economic manage-
ment, inadequate real capital, and rapid population growth will continue to hamper
African development. Where political factors remain stable, the small markets and
generally unskilled and poorly educated populations will continue to stand in the way
of the large-scale investment needed to stimulate development on a broad front.
Meanwhile, the continued sluggishness of the developed economies will limit demand
for African products and could dim prospects for expansion of economic aid. Given
the slow growth in available industrial jobs and the continued population explosion,
the proportion of subsistence farmers is not likely to fall much below 80 to 90 percent
in the next decade.
In particular, the stable political conditions needed to foster steady economic
progress are likely to be lacking. The outlook for southern Africa is especially dim
because of the black-white confrontation. Tensions in the Horn are unlikely to abate
much in the near future, and hostilities between Chad and Libya and among
Mauritania, Morocco, and Algeria could escalate. Given the sub -Sahara's record to
date, coups can be expected in any number of countries.
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BELGIUM: WAITING FOR ITS NEIGHBORS *
Brussels has applied stop-go economic policies for four years with only one major
gain?a reduction in the inflation rate. Growth is slow, unemployment is high, key
industries are in trouble, the trade balance is deteriorating, and the near-term outlook
is for more of the same. The government of Prime Minister Leo Tindemans has
decided to put on the fiscal brakes yet again and wait for recovery in neighboring
countries to give Belgium a lift.
Success Only On The Inflation Front
Real GNP growth has averaged only 1.7 percent over the past four years, and
unemployment has risen to 8 percent, the second highest level in the European
Community after Ireland. Brussels' chief concern has been inflation; the government
* This article is another in a series dealing with the economic problems of the smaller OECD countries. Previous
articles have covered Austria, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Turkey.
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Belgium: Unemployment Rates
10 Percent
0 1 1 I 1 1 .1 I I I 1 I 1 I 1 I i 1 , I i
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II iii IV I
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
lExcluding school-leavers and other groups for which data by sex are not available
576804 7-78 CIA
has succeeded in reducing the rate from 15.7 percent in 1974 to 4.4 percent in the 12
months ending last May.
Economic stagnation stems from the dismal performance of private investment,
consumer demand, and exports. Real private investment actually declined in 1976-77,
while real private consumption grew only an average 2.4 percent. With exports
normally equal to 40 percent of GNP, Belgium has suffered from the weak recovery
of major trading partners as well as from the slump in world demand for steel and
textiles (20 percent of Belgium exports). The traditional trade surplus of the Belgium-
Luxembourg customs union was wiped out in 1975; only record surpluses on services
the last two years have held the annual current account deficit to a moderate $300
million.
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The government has shifted fiscal gears back and forth since 1974 in its efforts to
stimulate demand without stirring up inflation. Public spending increased sharply in
1975-76, but concern about a growing budget deficit led to tax increases in 1977. This
year the central government has again pumped up demand; the budget deficit is
slated to approach $2.5 billion, with total expenditures about $30 billion. Spending by
all levels of government is expected to top 50 percent of GNP, up from 41 percent in
1974.
Brussels nonetheless has not succeeded in arresting the rise in unemployment and,
in fact, may have contributed to it. Joblessness has been rising almost continuously
since mid-1974 and is expected to average 8.0 to 8.5 percent of the work force this
year. The government's unemployment compensation program, which allows idle
workers to collect 60 percent of their salaries tax-free for one year, removes much of
the incentive to work. School-leavers without work experience qualify for benefits
after only a 75-day wait. Many housewives who do not seriously intend to work
register as unemployed at a handsome payoff. The unemployment rate has been rising
much more rapidly for women than for men. A program to create 40,000 to 50,000
jobs this year in the public and private sectors has so far generated only 9,500 new
positions.
Apathy Reigns
Partly because of the generous unemployment benefits, the government has felt
little public pressure to change the basic anti-inflation orientation of its policies.
Policymakers attribute the slowdown in inflation mainly to the strength of the Belgian
franc, which has remained in the joint European currency float, the so-called snake.
More than one-half of Belgium's imports come from other countries in the snake,
primarily West Germany and the Netherlands. While prices for these imports have
been fairly stable, prices for imports from other countries have been depressed by
appreciation of the franc. Since 1974 the franc has risen 9 percent against all
currencies on a trade-weighted basis. The government has refused businessmen's pleas
for a devaluation to revive exports, fearing that it would push up domestic prices
excessively. The tying of wages, rents, and social insurance benefits to the consumer
price index prolongs any price surge.
Prime Minister Tindemans and his moderate Christian Socialists recently won a
battle with their major coalition partners, the Socialists, over the direction of fiscal
policy.
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Aside from the budget-cutting proposal, Tindemans' economic plan remains
vague. The Belgian press has dubbed it the -dinosaur plan- because of its great length
and lack of new ideas. Tindemans and his economic advisers believe that Belgium can
do little on its own to revive economic growth and that an expansionary policy would
only increase imports, put downward pressure on the franc, and rekindle inflation.
Given this dour scenario, the government sees high unemployment as the least of
possible evils.
Gray Outlook for Jobs and Investment
The spending curb and other government policies almost guarantee that unem-
ployment will rise further. With a strong resurgence in the rest of the European
Community unlikely, Brussels is projecting real GNP growth of only about 2 percent
this year and next. In May, the government announced a plan to resuscitate the ailing
steel industry by buying equity in firms that seek help and by financing their
modernization. While officials have attached no price tag to the program, they have
said they would soon begin updating facilities, presumably by installing labor-saving
equipment to lower unit costs, which are the highest in Western Europe. The program
is expected to entail a cut of 4,000 to 5,000 steel workers in the next three years; the
number already has dropped to 45,000 from a peak of 63,000 in 1974.
A recent survey by the Belgian central bank confirmed the lack of business
confidence; respondents predicted only 2-percent annual, real growth in investment
into the 1980s. The trade deficit is expected to worsen again this year; at the same
time, the current account deficit should remain at about $300 million, as the services
account strengthens, with earnings from banking and shipping leading the way.
Despite recent progress, inflation still is more rapid than in West Germany and
continues to undercut the competitive position of Belgian exports.
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BRAZIL: FORGING A MANUFACTURING ECONOMY
Under the military government, Brazil's manufacturing sector has developed into
an efficient producer of a wide range of sophisticated consumer goods and capital
equipment. This has been largely the result of a deliberate government policy,
implemented through a wide array of financial incentives and direct controls. Since
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1974, policymakers have focused both on acceleration of import substitution and
expansion of industrial exports to cope with oil-induced foreign payments strains. We
expect the government to successfully pursue these policies into the early 1980s,
thereby limiting manufactured imports while gradually increasing the share of
Brazilian products sold on world markets. Brasilia's strategy is likely to further erode
US access to the lucrative Brazilian market while increasing competition for US
producers, both in the United States and in third countries.
Current Engine of Growth
Brazil's manufacturing sector, after an austerity-induced setback last year, is
again driving the nation's economic growth. Real economic expansion is being
powered by a 5.7-percent increase in industrial production (through May), more than
offsetting a 2-percent decline in agricultural output caused by drought. The current
manufacturing advance reflects:
? Strong expansion of steel, capital-goods, and petrochemical production as
policymakers accelerate import-substitution projects.
? Sharp recovery in consumer industries?automobiles, textiles, pharmaceu-
ticals--reflecting the easing of austerity measures taken in 1976/77.
? A 31-percent increase in exports of manufactured goods, led by footwear,
electrical machinery, and motor vehicles.
Brazilian manufacturing has achieved major importance both in the domestic
economy and abroad. The sector now employs 4 million persons, about 12 percent of
the economically active population. It accounts for 25 percent of GDP, compared with
17 percent for commerce and 15 percent for agriculture. In 1975, Brazilian industry
Brazil: The Changing Structure of the Economy
Percent of GDP
1950
1960
1970
1977
Total
100
100
100
100
Agriculture
24
19
17
15
Industry '
22
27
29
32
Manufacturing
20
22
24
25
Services
54
54
54
53
'Estimated
2 Including manufacturing, mining, construction, and public utilities other than transportation and
communications.
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stood fifth in world production of cotton fabrics, sixth in commercial vehicles and
television receivers, and tenth in passenger cars, cement, and paper. About 5 percent
of manufacturing output is exported, ranging from 31 percent for shoes to less than 1
percent for plastics.
Multinational subsidiaries and state companies dominate the sector. Brasilia has
relied on foreign firms to develop many industries requiring large-scale investment,
imported equipment, and modern technology. By yearend 1977, multinationals had
invested $8.6 billion in manufacturing, mostly in machine building, chemicals,
vehicles, and appliances. Foreign investors reportedly control 59 of Brazil's 100 largest
manufacturing firms and about one-half of total sales of manufactured goods.
Brazil: Manufacturing Exports by Industry, 1976
Exports as a Percent of Sales
Total
5.2
Shoes
31.0
Lumber
25.6
Food products
15.6
Textiles
15.5
Transportation equipment
7.9
Machinery
4.7
Paper
3.9
Chemicals
2.8
Metals
2.4
Electric equipment
2.3
Rubber
2.2
Tobacco
1.8
Nonmetallic minerals
1.3
Plastics
0.6
Beverages
0.2
Soaps and detergents
0.1
State corporations,. many of which are much larger than the multinational
subsidiaries, control the basic processing and national defense industries. The state
runs Brazil's largest steel corporation (Siderbras), the largest metals company (Vale do
Rio Doce), the sole aircraft manufacturer (Embraer), and the major petrochemical
firm (Petroquisa). Private domestic firms dominate low-technology, consumer-
oriented industries such as food products, textiles, and apparel.
Growth Strategies
Throughout the postwar period, Brazil has pursued rapid industrialization to
achieve self-sustaining economic growth, export diversification, and major power
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Brazil: Production Indexes
Index 1969=100
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Commerce
o I
1947 50
1 1 I 1
55 60 65 70
75 77
576814 8?78
status. With this impetus, manufacturing output has been expanding at a rapid clip,
doubling every eight years on the average since 1947. Between 1947 and 1964, Brazil
fostered manufacturing through import substitution policies including high tariffs and
import restrictions, which insulated industry from foreign competition. Backed by this
protection, production increased by 9 percent per year during the 1950s and early
1960s with the fastest gains coming in the consumer goods sector.
After the military regime came to power in 1964, Brazil relaxed its import-
substitution policies and put new emphasis on export expansion. Tariff reforms
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reduced the protection accorded domestic manufacturers while financial incentives
and floating exchange rates promoted export growth and diversification. By 1967,
manufacturing was responding smartly to the policy moves, expanding by 13 percent
annually through 1974. During these years, motor vehicle production increased from
near zero to almost 1 million vehicles per year, output of household durables went
from 330,000 to 720,000 units, and the value of manufactured exports soared from
$160 million to $2.1 billion.
International Competitiveness
At present, Brazil is becoming internationally competitive in an increasingly wide
range of manufactured products. Technical studies by Brazilian economists indicate
that the country is most competitive in products produced from domestic raw
materials: natural fibers, wood products, vegetable oils, and foodstuffs. This largely
reflects Brazil's generous natural resource endowment as well as the efficiency of the
large-scale processing facilities in its modern industrial sector.
Brazil is also becoming increasingly successful in fabricating consumer goods and
a growing range of basic machinery and components. Brazilian shoes, typewriters, and
motor vehicle replacement parts are penetrating OECD and LDC markets, in many
instances displacing the products of developed countries. The growing competitiveness
of Brazilian goods is explained by a combination of export subsidies, relatively low
wages, the rising technical proficiency of the work force, and modern production
techniques largely introduced by multinational firms.
Current Government Policies
In the wake of the 1973/74 oil price hikes and the subsequent slowdown of the
world economy, Brasilia was forced to devise a new industrial strategy combining both
import substitution and export promotion. Exports of manufactured goods are being
heavily promoted through export credits and subsidies, while basic industry is being
expanded to reduce imports. With regard to expansion of basic industry, the
government strategy stresses two points:
24
? Selective tariff hikes and direct import restrictions?outright prohibitions,
prior deposits, domestic content laws?are encouraging domestic producers
of capital and sophisticated intermediate goods, such as electronic compo-
nents, to expand capacity and initiate new product lines.
? Government investments, tax incentives, and subsidized credits are ex-
panding indigenous capacity and production of steel, nonferrous metals,
paper, and petrochemicals to replace imports and to intensify use of
domestic capital equipment.
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Import Substitution Succeeding
Since 1974, Brazil has succeeded in restraining imports of capital goods and
intermediate products while greatly expanding local production. Although import
spending has hovered at the $12 billion level for the past three years, Brazil has
achieved a 37-percent expansion of the economy in this period. As a result, the ratio of
non-oil imports to GDP has fallen from 10 percent in 1974 to 5 percent in 1977.
Annual spending on foreign machinery and equipment has dropped by nearly $900
million in three years, while steel imports have declined by $700 million. The share of
domestic equipment used in major investment projects has risen from 53 percent to 73
percent.
Brasilia has intensified import restrictions this year to offset a projected shortfall
in agricultural exports. Policymakers have tightened the screws on capital goods
imports by eliminating $400 million in planned public sector purchases of equipment
and by holding machinery imports below the levels of 1977. US exporters, mainly
equipment manufacturers, have been hurt by the restrictions. The US share of Brazil's
import market declined from 25.3 percent in 1975 to 19.6 percent last year.
Multinational firms, prodded by import restrictions and domestic content laws,
have geared up to expand local production. Texas Instruments, for example, which
began assembling calculators in Brazil in 1972 from imported components, increased
local content to 90 percent by mid-1977. Local firms are becoming increasingly
important suppliers of components for the heavy equipment, telecommunications, and
electronics sectors.
Import substitution programs are gradually eliminating the materials bottlenecks
that have bedeviled manufacturing since 1974. During the past three years, petro-
chemical production has risen by 11.4 percent annually, basic metals by 9.0 percent,
and capital goods by 8.6 percent. As a result, Brazil's manufacturing base has become
more balanced and flexible.
Export Promotion
Export incentives, coupled with minidevaluations, have helped stimulate export
growth and diversification. Exports of manufactured goods soared from $2.7 billion in
1974 to nearly $4.4 billion last year, led by shipments of processed foodstuffs,
consumer goods, and general machinery. Manufactures comprised 36 percent of
exports in 1977, and policymakers are aiming at further expanding this share. In 1975-
77, Brazilian manufactured exports grew by 17 percent annually compared with 15
percent for Third World countries as a whole.
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Brazil: Manufacturing by Sector
Percent of Value Added
1950
1960
1970
1977 '
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100
Traditional consumer goods
57.4
41.3
31.1
25
Textiles
20.2
12.0
9.0
9
Clothing and footwear
4.5
3.6
2.5
3
Food
20.5
16.5
11.7
9
Other
12.2
9.2
7.9
4
Intermediate goods
35.0
41.9
45.2
49
Nonmetallic mineral
7.3
6.6
6.1
8
Metallurgical
9.7
11.8
10.4
13
Chemical
9.3
13.3
20.5
22
Other
8.7
10.2
8.2
6
Capital goods and consumer durables
5.7
15.1
22.0
25
Mechanical
2.1
3.5
5.5
7
Electrical
1.7
4.0
6.3
8
Transport
1.9
7.6
10.2
10
Other
1.9
1.7
1.7
1
Estimated.
Brazil has achieved some success in diversifying its export markets. With the
increase in trade frictions with its industrialized trading partners, Brazilian exports to
the United States, the European Community, and Japan declined from 60 percent of
the total in 1974 to 55 percent last year. Brazil has increased its share of exports
destined to the Latin American countries, Communist countries, and Asian LDCs.
Brazil also is aggressively promoting its exports, especially of industrial products, to the
lucrative OPEC markets and various African countries.
High Cost of Current Policies
Brazil is spending heavily to accelerate import substitution in basic industry. The
government has turned to world money markets for external financing, borrowing at
least $4 billion abroad since 1974 to finance expansion projects. This year, Brazil has
tapped flush world money markets for a minimum of $700 million in long-term
credits for expansion of steel, petrochemical, and nonferrous metal projects. Since
1974, an additional $17 billion in domestic credit has been invested in public and
private industrial projects.
The current program has added to inflationary pressure and has lessened
industrial efficiency. Production costs are rising because of the increased use of higher
priced domestic components and capital equipment. Higher costs are mostly passed on
to consumers although profit margins for many multinationals are eroding. Acceler-
26
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ated import substitution has led to the proliferation of competitors. The steel industry,
for example, now is served by a dozen producers of major steel mill equipment.
Outlook
Despite the high costs involved, Brasilia is almost certain to continue current
policies over the near term. Given the persistence of large current account deficits, the
government must continue its financial incentives and administrative measures to
sustain import substitution in basic industry, limit import dependence of new
ventures, and promote exports. Under these measures, manufacturing should continue
to grow rapidly, dependence on imported intermediate products and capital goods
shrink, and the share of production sold in world markets rise moderately.
We expect Brasilia will begin to move aggressively to boost private domestic
participation in the modern manufacturing sector. Local businessmen have become
increasingly critical of the dominant role of state firms and multinational companies.
The growing political muscle of domestic business firms has prompted policymakers to
(a) encourage joint ventures or local equity participation before approving new foreign
investment proposals and (b) ensure that Brazilian capital predominates in high-
technology industries, such as minicomputers. Multinational firms, especially US
subsidiaries, will be increasingly forced to buy components in local markets and turn
over to the Brazilians a wide range of modern technology.
Brasilia will also emphasize the dispersion of manufacturing. The Southeast?
Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Sao Paulo?is the location of 80 percent of Brazil's
industry. Last year, it received nearly 90 percent of new investment. Policymakers
hope to shift new industry to other areas, thereby reducing inequalities in regional
income and development. The government is constructing new petrochemical capac-
ity, for example, in the states of Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul. The National
Development Bank is to give preference to financing manufacturing projects outside
the Southeast, and the? Industrial Development Council is to cut back the fiscal
incentives previously granted to firms investing in Sao Paulo.
SAUDI ARABIA: FACING CASH FLOW PROBLEMS
Saudi Arabia is encountering temporary cash flow problems triggered by poor
planning and reduced oil output. The US Liaison Office in Riyadh estimates that a
budget deficit as high as $5 billion could develop this fiscal year (beginning 1 June
1978). If, as we expect, oil production increases this winter and OPEC decides on a
3 August 1978
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price hike effective in January, revenues will be considerably higher than envisioned
in this calculation.
The Saudi Government already is delaying reinvestment of matured foreign
securities. Over the longer run, closer attention will have to be paid to budget planning
and formation of development goals. Meanwhile, with its $60 billion in foreign assets,
Saudi Arabia remains exceedingly strong financially.
The cash flow problem is largely a phenomenon of the loose, uncoordinated
nature of Saudi budget planning. The Finance Ministry based revenues estimates for
the current fiscal year on an Aramco output of 8.5 million b/d and approved spending
requests from ministries that far exceeded possible revenues from this level of
production. Moreover, Aramco produCtion is now down to 7.2 million b/d, in part
because of a limitation on exports of light crude imposed by the Oil Ministry.
For the last several years, large and increasing oil revenues easily covered
government expenditures, and the Saudis had little need to pay close attention to
budget accounts. Indeed, Saudi officials grossly exaggerated expenditures to ease
pressure on Riyadh for foreign assistance.
With the prospect of constant or declining revenues in 1978-79, the picture
changed. In mid-June 1978, the Council of Ministers had to order a one-third cutback
in government expenditures. Even if this goal is attained, a deficit is still likely because
of reduced oil output.
The precise impact of the June cutback on the economic development program is
hard to assess. Many ministers are dragging their feet. Nonetheless, some fat will be
trimmed from the program.
In the meantime as ministries reassess priorities, projects hang in limbo, funds are
frozen, and a mood of uncertainty prevails among advisers and contractors.
The cash flow problems and the possibility that national development could be
constrained by income are being forcefully brought to the attention of the Saudi
leadership. The Council of Ministers will need to pay closer attention to budget
planning and provide a mechanism for the orderly financing of any deficits that may
occur in the implementation of the ambitious development goals.
28
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Notes
Soviet Industrial Output Remains Sluggish
Halfway through 1978, Soviet industrial production shows no sign of perking up.
Output in first half 1978 was 4.3 percent higher than in first half 1977, compared with
the 4.5 percent annual growth plan for this year. Growth in energy production
continued to decline, implying no relief for the tightness in fuel supplies evident over
the past two years. As a result, fuel shortages may intensify later this year, especially if
the harvesting of an above-average crop places increased demands on available fuel.
Oil production increased by only 4.1 percent in the first half of 1978, below the pace
needed to reach this year's goal of 11.5 million b/d. Steel output rose 3.4 percent as a
result of new capacity commissioned at the end of 1977. Growth in construction
materials, chemicals, and forest products continued to slow. Machinery growth, too, is
falling?a situation that bodes ill for future capital formation and technical progress.
USSR: Energy Production
Percentl
6.2
12.1
0.
1.7
0
Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun
1976 1977 1978 1976 1977 1978 1976 1977 1978 1976 1977 1978
Oil Natural Gas Coal Electric Power
7.8
1. Change from first half of previous year.
576824 7.78
3 August 1978
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Coffee Producers Call for Export Quotas
Coffee producers, alarmed by the sudden drop in coffee prices, have asked the
International Coffee Organization for an immediate introduction of export quotas
under the 1976 International Coffee Agreement. The request is aimed at paving the
way for the activation of the agreement's economic clauses and at stemming the price
decline. In addition, Mexico and Honduras have suspended coffee sales in an effort to
boost prices, which have plummeted 25 percent in July to $1.22 per pound.
Export quotas under current provisions of the agreement cannot be implemented
until prices fall to 77 cents per pound. Negotiations on price levels and the size of
quotas are scheduled to take place next month. Producers are hopeful that the current
request will spur action on the quota issue and aid negotiations. Any further price
decline without introduction of quotas under the agreement would likely result in joint
producer efforts outside the ICO to support coffee prices.
Copper Negotiations Center on Relationship to UNCTAD
Recent progress toward formation of an intergovernmental copper organization
independent of UNCTAD was dealt a serious blow by Peru at the Fourth Preparatory
Meeting on Copper. The meeting, which was convened in late July to approve the
organization's charter, was brought to a halt by Peru's obstructionist tactics. The
concept of an independent organization, as pushed by the United States and other
developed countries, had been accepted by the more moderate LDC copper
producers. Peru, along with Venezuela and Mexico, has been strenuously opposing
autonomy on the grounds that independence from UNCTAD would jeopardize the
entire UNCTAD-sponsored commodity agreement program.
Peru now stands a good chance of ultimately forcing a compromise on the issue
since it has gained the backing of such middle roaders as Indonesia, Zambia, Zaire, the
Philippines, and Brazil. A solution offered by Zaire was accepted by the developed
countries as basis for discussion at the next Preparatory Meeting. It would place the
copper organization under UNCTAD but permit it to act autonomously; the chairman
would be appointed by the Secretary General of UNCTAD.
30
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25X1
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National
Foreign
Assessment
Center
Economic Indicators
Weekly Review
3 August 1978
ER El 78-031
3 August 1978
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document
directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar
CIA publications on a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to:
Document Expediting ( DOCEX ) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
Project subscription service may purchase reproductions of specific
publications on an individual basis from:
Photoduplication Service
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
FOREWORD
1. The Economic Indicators Weekly Review provides up-to-date information
on changes in the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-
Communist developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators
Weekly Review is updated from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the
results are made available to the reader weeks?or sometimes months?before receipt
of official statistical publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are revised every
few months. The most recent date of publication of source notes is 16 February 1978.
Comments and queries regarding the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are
welcomed.
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BIG SIX FOREIGN COUNTRIES' COMPOSITE INDICATORS
Industrial Production
140
130
120
INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
Semilogarithmic Scale
110
Unemployment Rate
9
7
6
Big Six
(Weighted average)
126
4
3
Note: Excluding data for Italy.
4.4
Percent
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
1974
1975
LIncluding Japan, West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada.
A-2
1976
1977
1978
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4.-
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Consumer Price Inflation
20
15
Percent, seasonally adjusted, annual rate
Note: Three-month average compared with previous three months.
Trade Balance
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Big Six
6.9
7.1
A5.7
Billion US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Note: Five-month weighted moving average.
JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
JAN
APR JUL OCT
1974
Percent Change
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
1975
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier2
Industrial
Production
Big Six
APR 78
0.7
3.0
3.1
4.4
United States
APR 78
1.5
3.7
5.1
5.2
Consumer Prices
Big Six
MAY 78
0.8
9.2
6.3
7.1
United States
MAY 78
0.8
6.7
7.0
9.9
United States
\ 4.3
-1.9
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JA APR JUL OCT
1976
Unemployment Rate
Big Five
United States
Trade Balance
Big Six
United States
2Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months, seasonally adjusted at annual rate.
A-3
1977 1978
LATEST MONTH
3 Months
1,Year Earlier Earlier
MAY 78
4.4
4.2
4.3
MAY 78
6.1
7.1
6.1
LATEST MILLION CUMULATIVE (MILLION US $)
MONTH US $ 1978 1917 Change
MAY 78 3,495 22,505 11,298 11,207
MAY 78 -2,238 -14,771 -8,280 -6,491
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5767387-78
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
United States
140
130
?120
110
Semilogarithmic Scale
134
1973 Average 120
Japan
140
----sr'17 126
110
West Germany
130
120
??#"\/-"7?''
110 113
France
140
130
?120
110
121
...e.g.""*.?136
127
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
1974
1975
A-4
1976
1977
1978
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United Kingdom
100
Italy
140
130
120
111
Semilogarithmic Scale
106
115
100
Canada
130
1 34
120
110
123
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
Percent AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
from
LATEST Previous 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month 1970 Earlier Earlierl
1977 1978
Percent AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
from
LATEST Previous 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month 1970 Earlier Earlier1
JUN 78 0.3 3.7 4.7 12.2 I United Kingdom APR 78 1.0 0.7
JUN 78 -0.6 3.9 4.7 6.5 I Italy MAY 78 5.5 3.2
MAY 78 -1.7 1.9 0.9 -6.6 I 1 Canada APR 78 -0.2 3.8
MAY 78 -3.1 3.1 3.3 13.4
'Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
A-5
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1.9 6.1
-1.4 -1.6
2,1 3.7
576736 7-78
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PERCENT
United States
9
8
7
6
Japan
5.7
1965-74 Average 4.6
2.3
West Germany
5
4
3
2
France
5
4
3
'...."'"""""""*.???4.3
5.1
12
12
19
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
A-6
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United Kingdom
4
Italy (quarterly)
5.7
2.5-
A labor force survey based on new definitions of economic activity sharply raised the official estimate of Italian unemployment In first quarter 1977. Data for earlier periods thus are not comparable.
2 Italian data are not seasonally adjusted.
Canada
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973 1974 1975
THOUSANDS OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL
1976 1977
OCT
8.6
5.0
JAN APR JUL OCT
1978
LATEST MONTH
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
LATEST MONTH
1 Year
Earlier
United States
JUN 78
5,754
6,904
6,148
United Kingdom
JUL 78
1,371
1,402
Japan
MAY 78
1,270
1,140
1,160
Italy
II 78
1,455
1,432
West Germany
JUN 78
984
1,044
1,014
Canada
JUN 78
944
848
France
MAY 78
1,113
1,066
1,042
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-78, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates. Beginning in
1977, Italian rates should be decreased by 50 percent to be roughly comparable to US rates.
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3 Months
Earlier
1,387
1,520
938
576735 7-78
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CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
United States
15
10
5 2.9 Average Annual Rate of Inflation 1961-1972
Japan
45
40
35
30
25
20
1
Percent, seasonally adjusted,
annual rate'
West Germany
France
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
1973
1974
'Three-month average compared with previous three months.
APR JUL OCT JAN
1975
A-8
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1976
1977
1978
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United Kingdom
Italy
35
30
g 25
20
-15
i':????4
12.4
Canada
15
10
JAN
4.2
APR JUL OCT JAN
1973
3 United States
Japan
West Germany
France
APR JUL OCT JAN
1974
Percent
Change
from
LATEST Previous
MONTH Month
MAY 78
MAY 78
JUN 78
MAY 78
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1975 1976 1977 1978
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
1970 1 Year 3 Months 1
Earlier Earlier2
0.8
6.7
7.0
9.9
1.0
9.8
3.5
6.0
0.1
5.2
2.4
2.2
1.0
9.0
9.1
10.2
Percent
Change
from
LATEST Previous
MONTH Month
United Kingdom JUN 78 0.8
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
1970 1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier2
13.1
Italy JUN 78 1.2 13.1
Canada JUN 78 0.8 7.7
7.4
12.2
9.2
5.2
12.4
9.8
576737 7-78
2Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months, seasonally adjusted at annual rate.
A-9
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GNP '
Constant Market Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Seasonally adjusted.
Percent Change
latest from Previous
Quarter Quarter
78 ll 1.9
781 2.4
781 0.1
78 I 1.8
77 IV -0.5
781 2.0
781 0.7
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
1 Year Previous
1970 Earlier Quarter
3.2 4.1 7.7
5.5 5.7
2.4 1.1
4.1
1.6
1.9
4.7
1.4
-1.1
-6.2
2.8
10.0
0.4
7.4
-1.9
8.2
2.7
RETAIL SALES '
Constant Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Latest
Month
May 78
Jan 78
Apr 78
Jan 78
Jun 78
Mar 78
May 78
Percent Change
from Previous
Month
-0.9
2.9
-0.8
9.9
0.6
3.6
1.0
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
1970
3.1
9.2
2.5
0
1.2
3.2
4.1
1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier
1.9 5.5
1.0 -2.8
7.0 -7.3
1.0 10.5
6.5 7.0
5.5 21.1
3.5 2.2
'Seasonally adjusted.
Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months
FIXED INVESTMENT '
Nonresidential; constant prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
'Seasonally adjusted.
Latest
Quarter
78 I
78 I
78 I
77 IV
77 IV
78 I
78 I
Percent Change
from Previous
Quarter
1.0
0.9
-0.5
0.8
-1.5
5.3
-3.7
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
1 Year Previous
1970 Earlier
2.2
1.1
0.7
4.0
1.3
1.7
4.8
4.7
-0.4
1.6
4.7
4.1
- 11.4
-12.7
Quarter
4.1
3.6
-2.1
3.3
-5.9
22.7
-14.1
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING '
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Latest
Period
Jun 78
Mar 78
78 I
77 IV
Mar 78
Apr 78
Apr 78
Percent Change
from Previous
Period
0.5
-0.2
0.9
3.1
16.2
0
-0.1
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
1970
7.6
16.2
8.9
14.1
16.8
20.1
10.9
1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier
7.6 7.2
7.7 8.3
4.3 3.9
12.0 12.9
21.7 31.4
17.4 13.4
7.7 6.8
'Handy earnings (seasonally adjusted) for the United States, Japan, and Canada; hourly wage
rates for others. West German and French data refer to the beginning of the quarter.
Average for latest 3 months compared with that for previous 3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATES
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Eurodollars
Percent Rate of Interest
Representative rotas Latest Date
Commercial paper
Call money
Interbank loans (3 months)
Call money
Sterling interbank loans (3 months)
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
Jul 19
Jul 21
Jul 19
Jul 21
Jul 19
Jul 19
Jul 19
1 Year 3 Months 1 Month
Earlier Earlier Earlier
7.88 5.38 6.86 7.66
4.38 5.63 4.12 4.13
3.76 4.19 3.55 3.62
7.63 8.63 8.50 7.38
10.04 7.89 7.80 10.16
8.24 7.25 8.45 8.14
8.58 5.75 7.43 8.48
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tAppl
EXPORT PRICES
US $
lJVCU Flil ENCICCIJC LLAJOAJIILV . \-tit1-1ALirOlJ
I UV I ULF-Xt./LW I %JUL) I lJULP-1.-.7
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Mar 78
-0.1
9.3
3.8
7.6
United States
Mar 78
-0.1
9.3
3.8
7.6
Japan
May 78
1.1
12.2
23.6
45.4
Japan
May 78
3.1
5.8
0.7
14.3
West Germany
May 78
- 1.8
11.4
10.6
-6.7
West Germany
May 78
1.2
3.8
-1.2
-0.6
France
Apr 78
3.4
12.1
17.9
36.2
France
Apr 78
0.9
9.4
8.9
21.0
United Kingdom
Jun 78
1.2
11.4
16.7
-3.8
United Kingdom
Jun 78
0.1
15.2
9.2
13.1
Italy
Dec 77
0.9
10.7
8.6
-1.3
Italy
Dec 77
0.6
15.8
9.6
-4.7
Canada
Apr 78
-0.2
8.3
-1.2
-13.6
Canada
Apr 78
1.2
9.5
7.3
-0.2
IMPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
National Currency
Average
Billion US $
Annual Growth Rate Since
Latest Month
Percent Change
1 Year 3 Months
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
End of Billion US $ Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Mar 78
2.0
13.1
7.8
27.5
United States
Apr 78
18.8
14.5
18.9
19.5
Japan
May 78
5.3
7.1
- 17.0
- 12.3
Japan
Jun 78
27.3
4.1
17.4
29.2
West Germany
May 78
1.5
3.3
-4.4
0.9
West Germany
May 78
40.0
8.8
34.8
41.9
France
Apr 78
-2.2
9.3
0.2
-1.6
France
Apr 78
10.6
4.4
10.0
0.1
United Kingdom
Jun 78
1.1
17.6
3.0
16.3
United Kingdom
May 78
17.3
2.8
10.0
21.4
Italy
Dec 77
-0.7
19.5
9.7
-13.1
Italy
May 78
12.2
4.7
7.9
11.4
Canada
Apr 78
1.5
8.9
10.6
-2.1
Canada
Jun 78
4.7
9.1
5.1
4.0
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE '
BASIC BALANCE '
Current Account and Long-Term Capital Transactions
Cumulative (Million
US $)
Cumulative
(Million US $)
Latest
Latest
Period Million US $ 1978 1977 Change
Period Million US $ 1978 1977 Change
United States 2
78 I
-6,954
-6,954
-4,158
-2,796
United States
No longer published 2
Japan
Jun 78
2,330
8,814
3,076
5,738
Japan
Jun 78
1,280
5,560
2,145
3,415
West Germany
May 78
323
2,470
1,946
524
West Germany
May 78
-722
2,336
-543
-2,879
France
78 I
0
0
-2
2
France
78 I
- 1
- 1
-2
1
United Kingdom
77 IV
682
N.A.
-14
N.A.
United Kingdom
77 IV
1,389
N.A.
5,353
N.A.
Italy
77 III
2,390
NA.
1,629
N.A.
Italy
77 III
2,520
N.A.
2,128
N.A.
Canada
78 I
-1,273
-1,273
-1,484
212
Canada
78 I
-668
-668
-584
-84
' Converted to US dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
' Converted to US dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
'As recommended by the Advisory Committee on the Presentation of Balance of Payments
Statistics, the Department of Commerce no longer publishes a basic balance.
. Seasonally adjusted.
EXCHANGE RATES
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES '
Spot Rate
As of 28 Jul 78
Percent Change from
As of 28 Jul 78
Percent Change from
US $ 1 Year 3 Months
1 Year 3 Months
Per Unit 19 Mar 73 Earlier Earlier 21 Jul 78
19 Mar 73 Earlier Earlier 21 Jul 78
Japan (yen)
0.0052
36.89
37.76
16.70
5.02
United States
-2.90
-7.49
-4.16
-1.00
West Germany
0.4903
38.47
10.69
1.75
0.61
Japan
41.32
35.04
15.56
4.83
(Deutsche mark)
West Germany
30.34
1.97
-0.98
0.02
France (franc)
0.2282
3.54
10.08
5.12
1.12
France
-6.56
0.84
2.75
0.63
United Kingdom
1.9270
-21.70
12.06
5.43
0.81
United Kingdom
-27.99
5.17
2.96
0.26
(pound sterling)
Italy
-42.11
-4.42
-0.07
-0.42
Italy (lira)
0.0120
-32.99
4.49
2.77
0.25
Canada
-12.48
-9.25
-1.81
-1.00
Canada (dollar)
0.8836
-11.44
-6.31
-0.41
-0.63
' Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries to
reflect the competitive impact of exchange rate variations among the major currencies.
A-il
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
Developed Countries: Direction of Trade '
Billion US $
UNITED STATES
World
Exports to (f .o.b.)
Big Other
Seven OECD OPEC
Corn-
munist
Other
Imports from (c.i.f .)
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
OPEC
COM-
munist
Other
1975
107.65
46.94
16.25
10.77
3.37
29.82
103.42
49.81
8.83
18.70
0.98
25.08
1976
115.01
51.30
17.68
12.57
3.64
29.44
129.57
60.39
9.75
27.17
1.16
31.09
1977
120.17
53.92
18.53
14.02
2.72
30.98
156.70
70.48
11.08
35.45
1.22
38.47
1978
1st Qtr
30.94
13.65
4.60
3.76
1.00
7.93
43.14
20.39
3.51
8.15
0.47
10.62
JAPAN
1975
55.73
16.56
6.07
8,42
5.16
15.87
57.85
16.93
6.08
19.40
3.36
12.05
1976
67.32
22.61
8.59
9.27
4.93
17.84
64.89
17.58
7.78
21.88
2.91
14.72
1977
81.11
28.02
9.73
12.03
5.32
26.01
71.33
18.87
7.93
24.33
3.41
16.79
1978
1st Qtr
22.11
7.83
2.39
3.35
1.32
7.22
18.32
5.04
2.06
6.46
0.87
3.89
WEST GERMANY
1975
91.70
28.33
36.44
6.78
8.81
11.05
76.28
27.09
27.78
8.24
4.87
8.21
1976
103.63
33.44
41.86
8.25
8.72
11.04
89.68
31.28
32.64
9.73
5.93
10.01
1977
119.28
39.01
48.00
10.78
8.59
12.90
102.63
36.38
37.37
10.12
6.14
12.62
1978
Jan & Feb
20.35
7.03
8.12
1.75
1.29
2.16
18.20
6.58
6.92
1.49
0.89
2.32
FRANCE
1975
52.87
20.00
15.50
4.90
3.13
8.61
53.99
23.04
14.33
9.43
1.94
5.21
1976
57.05
22.49
16.15
5.08
3.23
8.75
64.38
27.81
16.93
11.36
2.24
6.01
1977
65.00
25.90
18.19
5.97
3.00
11.94
70.50
30.28
18.24
11.82
2.46
7.70
1978
1st Qtr
18.49
7.66
5.07
1.57
0.66
3.53
19.76
8.58
5.40
3.05
0.64
2.09
UNITED KINGDOM
1975
44.03
12.55
16.59
4.55
1.56
8.64
53.35
18.47
18.52
6.91
1.68
7.67
1976
46.12
14.03
17.53
5.13
1.39
7.92
55.56
19.66
18.81
7.29
2.08
7.65
1977
57.44
16.99
22.56
6.78
1.63
9.48
63.29
24.02
21.34
6.31
2.40
9.22
1978
1st Qtr
16.86
5.09
6.27
2.03
0.55
2.92
18.87
7.44
6.68
1.80
0.55
2.40
ITALY
1975
34.82
15.61
7.86
3.72
2.46
4.67
38.36
17.32
6.75
7.85
2.09
4.34
1976
36.96
17.41
8.69
4.23
2.18
3.96
43.42
19.35
8.04
8.12
2.65
5.24
1977
45.04
20.92
10.20
5.85
2.45
5.62
47.56
20.80
8.67
9.03
2.80
6.26
4th Qtr
12.84
6.02
2.78
1.67
0.69
1.68
13.15
5.90
2.49
2.25
0.83
1.68
CANADA
1975
33.84
26.30
1.73
0.71
1.20
2.00
38.59
29.78
1.70
3.43
0.32
2.02
1976
40.18
32.01
2.03
0.81
1.25
2.09
43.05
33.55
1.82
3.48
0.38
2.56
1977
42.98
34.77
2.13
0.94
1.06
4.08
44.67
35.67
1.77
3.05
0.33
3.85
4th Qtr
11.04
9.05
0.52
0.24
0.26
0.97
11.09
8.94
0.44
0.67
0.07
0.97
' Source: International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade.
A-12
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
Developed Countries: Direction of Trade '
(Continued)
Billion US $
Exports to (f.o.b.)
Imports from (c.i.f .)
CANADA
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
OPEC
Corn-
munist
Other
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
OPEC
Corn-
munist
Other
1975
33.84
26.30
1.73
0.71
1.20
2.00
38.59
29.78
1.70
3.43
0.32
2.02
1976
40.18
32.01
2.03
0.81
1.25
2.09
43.05
33.55
1.82
3.48
0.38
2.56
1977
42.98
34.77
2.13
0.94
1.06
4.08
44.67
35.67
1.77
3.05
0.33
3.85
1st Qtr
10.35
8.37
0.53
0.23
0.22
1.00
10.92
8.64
0.43
0.82
0.09
0.94
2d Qtr
11.34
9.23
0.54
0.24
0.29
1.04
12.28
9.92
0.47
0.74
0.10
1.05
3d Qtr
10.25
8.12
0.54
0.23
0.29
1.07
10.38
8.17
0.43
0.82
0.07
0.89
4th Qtr
11.04
9.05
0.52
0.24
0.26
0.97
11.09
8.94
0.44
0.67
0.07
0.97
' Source: International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade.
A-13
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
FOREIGN TRADE BILLION US $, f.o,b., seasonally adjusted
United States
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
Semilogarithmic Scale
4.0
Japan
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
1.5
West Germany
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.9
3.5
France
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
8.5
2.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
1974
1975
A-14
1976
1977
1978
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
United Kingdom
Semilogarithmic Scale
1.5
15
5.6
5.4
4.4
4.3
3.6
3.4
JAN APR JUL OCT
1973
JAN
LATEST
MONTH
APR JUL
1974
MILLION
US $
OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1975
CUMULATIVE (MILLION US $)
1978 1977 CHANGE
JAN APR JUL OCT
1976
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1977 1978
CUMULATIVE (MILLION US 5)
LATEST MILLION
MONTH US $ 1978 1977 CHANGE
12,126
66,363
60,257
10.1%
5,376
32,428
26,583
22.0%
United States
JUN 78
13,723
82,731
71,782
15.3%
United Kingdom
JUN 78
5,570
33,777
29,467
14.6%
Balance
-1,597
-16,368
-11,524
4,844
Balance
-195
-1,349
-2,884
1,536
7,794
47,131
38,859
21.3% "
4,276
20,329
17,623
15.4%
Japan
JUN 78
4,864
32,365
30,319
6.7%
Italy
MAY 78
4,358
19,314
18,630
3.7%
Balance
2,930
14,767
8,540
6,227
Balance
-82
1,014
-1,008
2,022
10,313
55,032
46,735
17.8%
3,621
18,983
17,435
8.9%
West Germany
MAY 78
8,522
45,808
38,606
18.7%
Canada
MAY 78
3,401
17,447
16,713
4.4%
Balance
1,791
9,224
8,128
1,096
Balance
219
1,536
722
814
France
0,318
37,329
31,159
19.8%
JUN 78
6,217
37,182
32,828
13.3%
Balance
100
147
-1,670
1,817
576740 7-78
A-15
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
FOREIGN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
United States
130
120
110
100
Imports
90
INDEX: JAN 1975 =100
117
80
Japan
130
120
110
100
West Germany
106
113
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974
1975 1976
lExport and import plots are based on five-month weighted moving averages.
A-16
1977
1978
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
United Kingdom
120
110
100
Italy
Canada
32
117
JAN
APR JUL OCT
1974
JAN
APR JUL OCT
1975
JAN
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1976
A-17
1977
1978
576739 7-78
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION'
Percent ChaMile
Latest from Previous
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
MONEY SUPPLY'
Latest
Month
Percent Change
from Previous
Month
Average
Annual Growth
Rate Since
3 Months
Earlier
1970
1 Year
Earlier
1 Year 3 Months
Period Period 1970 Earlier Earlier
Brazil
Mar 78
2.7
36.4
43.3
34.7
India
Mar 78
1.1
4.9
0.8
17.8
India
Dec 77
1.0
13.8
13.6
26.1
South Korea
Mar 78
5.8
22.7
26.8
16.9
Iran
Feb 78
0.8
28.1
27.7
30.3
Mexico
Mar 78
- 5.1
5.1
3.4
-2.0
South Korea
Apr 78
0.4
31.4
33.3
34.4
Nigeria
78 I
6.8
11.0
0.2
29.9
Mexico
Apr 78
1.2
20.4
30.8
28.9
Taiwan
Apr 78
1.5
15.3
17.4
- 2.0
Nigeria
Oct 77
0.6
36.3
46.9
32.6
Taiwan
Mar 78
5.3
25.2
31.0
24.3
' Seasonally adjusted.
Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
Thailand
Nov 77
3.3
13.1
12.3
4.7
' Season* adjusted.
'Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
CONSUMER PRICES
Average
WHOLESALE PRICES
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Annual Growth
Rate Since
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier u
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous 1 Year
Brazil
Jun 78
4.1
28.3
38.0
- 46.0
Month
Month 1970 Earlier
India
Mar 78
0.3
7.5
2.9
- 10.5
Brazil I ,
May 78
3.4
28.4
34.5
Iran
Apr 78
1.8
12.6
15.3
29.7
India
May 78
0.6
8.0
-2.8
South Korea
May 78
1.0
14.4
12.6
9.0
Iran
I
Apr 78
1.0
11.1
12.5
Mexico
May 78
1.0
15.0
17.2
13.0
South Korea
May 78
0.8
15.9
11.2
Nigeria
Dec 77
3.2
16.6
31.0
20.3
Mexico
May 78
2.5
16.5
16.3
Taiwan
Apr 78
1.8
10.1
7.6
11.3
Taiwan
Mar 78
1.1
8.2
1.2
Thailand
Apr 78
1.0
8.6
8.8
11.3
Thailand
Jan 78
-0.2
9.5
6.4
EXPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
US $
Average
Million US $
Annual Growth Rate Since
Latest Month
Percent Change
1 Year 3 Months
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
End of Million US $ Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Brazil
Feb 78
6,733
1,013
5,878 5,994
Brazil
Feb 78
0.4
14.1
1.5
25.6
India
Mar 78
5,823
1,006
3,747
5,184
India
Mar 77
-0.9
9.6
17.9
36.5
Iran
May 78
12,468
208
11,460
13,728
Iran
Mar 78
0
32.0
0
0
South Korea
Apr 78
4,138
602
3,247
4,418
South Korea
77 IV
4.6
8.9
8.8
19.5
Mexico
Mar 78
1,766
695
1,422
1,723
Nigeria
May 76
-0.1
27.3
12.3
8.7
Nigeria
May 78
2,610
148
4,740
4,186
Taiwan
Dec 78
-0.7
11.2
3.8
-2.0
Taiwan
Mar 78
1,433
531
1,349
1,447
Thailand
Mar 76
2.0
13.3
13.1
77.7
Thailand
May 78
2,129
978
2,005
2,087
A- 18
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
FOREIGN TRADE, f.o.b.
Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
Latest Period
3 Months 1 Year
Earlier Earlier
Cumulative (Million LIS $)
1978 1977 Change
Brazil
May 78 Exports
84.8
- 3.7
4,743
4,979
- 4.7%
May 78 Imports
26.6
1.4
5,110
4,939
3.5%
May 78 Balance
-367
40
-407
India
Feb 78 Exports
4.0
12.3
912
917
-0.4%
Feb 78 Imports
-39.6
- 0.2
845
916
-7.7%
Feb 78 Balance
67
1
66
Iran
Apr 78 Exports
-30.9
-7.1
7,682
8,012
-4.1%
Mar 78 Imports
105.8
14.2
3,694
3,235
14.2%
Mar 78 Balance
2,025
2,795
-770
South Korea
Apr 78 Exports
-15.7
30.8
3,638
2,832
28.5%
Apr 78 Imports
12.5
25.8
3,849
3,035
26.8%
Apr 78 Balance
-211
-203
-9
Mexico
Apr 78 Exports
-21.1
-3.1
1,576
1,458
8.1%
Apr 78 Imports
-47.9
16.2
1,809
1,492
21.2%
Apr 78 Balance
-233
-34
-199
Nigeria
Apr 78 Exports
-55.0
-29.8
1,145
1,597
-28.3%
Dec 76 Imports
86.7
8.4
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Dec 76 Balance
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Taiwan
Apr 78 Exports
-27.6
32.3
3,365
2,543
32.3%
Apr 78 Imports
- 14.5
20.4
2,869
2,338
22.7%
Apr 78 Balance
496
205
291
Thailand
Feb 78 Exports
76.0
8.2
635
574
10.6%
Mar 78 Imports
-8.8
13.7
1,069
940
13.7%
Feb 77 Balance
-29
-23
-5
' At annual rates.
A-19
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Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
AGRICULTURAL PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
WHEAT
$ PER BUSHEL
7.5
$ PER METRIC TON
CORN
S PER BUSHEL
5
Kansas City No. 2 Hard Winter
250
26 JUL
3.14
19 JUL
3.06
4
JUN 78
3.11
200
5.0
JUL 77
2.35
150
3.13
2
100
2.5
1
50
Chicago No. 2 Yellow
26 JUL 2.24
19 JUL 2.26
JUN 78 2.53
JUL 77 2.07
$ PER METRIC TON
2.32
1-26 JUL II 1-26 JUL II
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
RICE
$ PER HUNDRED WEIGHT
37:5
30.0
22.5
15.0
7.5
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens,
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Texas
17 JUL
10 JUL
JUN 78
JUL 77
1950.
19.50
19.75
15.25
SUGAR
$ PER METRIC TON c PER POUND
75
800
19.50
1-17 JUL I I
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
COTTON
1.0 $ PER POUND
Memphis Middling 1 1/16 inch
$ PER METRIC TON
0.2
26 JUL 0.5916
19 JUL 0.5990
JUN 78 0.5925
JUL 77 0.5938
600
50
400
25
200
World Raw London, bulk
26 JUL
19 JUL
JUN 78
JUL 77
6.07
6.25
7.26
7.78
$ PER METRIC TON
1974
1975
1976
6.48
1-26 JUL I
1977 1978
COFFEE/TEA
C
400 PER POUND
COFFEE
2,000 Other Milds Arabicas, ex-dock New York
350
300
1,500
5889
250
1,000
500
200
150
100
1-26 JUL II
0 0 50
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
A-20
1974
26 JUL
19 JUL
JUN 78
JUL 77
114.00
127.67
169.53
221.52
TEA
London Auction
MAY 94.9
APR 97.9
MAR 78 106.1
JUL 77 133.2
1975
$ PER METRIC TON
1976
138.31
150
100
50
1,500
1,000
500
0
8,000
6,000
4,000
94.9
MAY 2,000
1-26 JUL II
1977 1978
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
SOYBEANS
$ PER BUSHEL
Chicago No. 1 Yellow
26 JUL
19 JUL
JUN 78
JUL 77
6.30
6.35
6.80
6.33
SOYBEAN MEAL
$ PER METRIC TON $ PER TON
0.4
1976
.500
400
400
320
300
6.57 1 240
200
1-26 JUL II
1977 1978
SOYBEAN OIL/PALM OIL
$ PER POUND
100
160
$ PER METRIC TON
44 Percent Bulk, f.o.b. Decatur
26 JUL
166.50
19 JUL
170.00
JUN 78
169.36
JUL 77
163.35
400
350
300
250
200
172.24
150
80
1974
$ PER METRIC TON
500
1970=100
'1,000
SOYBEAN OIL
Crude, Tank Cars, f.o.b. Decatur
26 JUL 0.2507
19 JUL 0.2505
JUN 78 0.2686
JUL 77 0.2377
- 100
1-26 JUL II
1975 1976 1977 1978
FOOD INDEX
4
800 400
0.3141
031
0.2
PALM OIL
Crude, Bulk, c.i.f. US Ports
26 JUL 0.3100
0.1 19 JUL 0.3150
JUN 78 0.3061
JUL 77 0.2500
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
600
0.2586 300
1-26 JUL II
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
BEEF
N PER POUND
AUSTRALIA
Boneless Beef,
f.o.b., New York
21 JUL 86.75
14 JUL 88.00
JUN 78
JUL 77
90.20
64.31
UNITED STATES
Wholesale Steer Beef,
Midwest Markets
22 JUL 84.30
15 JUL 86.50
JUN 78 90.14
JUL 77 63.65
88.49
1-21 JUL
1-26 JUL
1978
1974 1975 1976 1977
84.95
1-22 JUL
400
200
200
382
1-18 JUL II
100
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
576741 7-78 CIA
A-21
NOTE: The food index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
COPPER WIRE BAR
C
140 PER POUND
120
100
80
60
40
LEAD
$ PER METRIC TON C PER POUND
45
LME
26 JUL
62,1
66 6
19 JUL
59.6
64.5
JUN 78
60.2
66 3
JUL 77
56.4
654
London Metal Exchangel
(LME)
2
1974 1975 1976
ZINC
100 PER POUND
80
60
40
LME1
3,000
40
2,500 35
2,000
30
25
6 6.4 1,500 20
60.2
15
LME
US
26 JUL
27.9
31.0
19 JUL
25.8
31.0
JUN 78
25.8
31.0
JUL 77
25.3
31.0
$ PER METRIC TON
1,000
800
400
1-26 JUL II 1,000 1-26 JUL II
10 200
1977 1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
LME
26 JUL 26.9
19 JUL 26.0
JUN 78 26.1
JUL 77 24.5
111S
31 3
31 0
30 C
34 rJ
$ PER METRIC TON
TIN
650 C PER POUND
2,000
550
1,500
450 A
1,000
350
LME1
20
26.4
500
250
1-26 JUL
0 0 150
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
26 JUL
19 JUL
JUN 78
JUL 77
LME
568.4
558.9
558.4
473.2
us
604.8
605.8
600.9
518.0
$ PER METRIC TON
(606.1
561.2 12,000
USJ
14,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
1-26 JUL 4,000II
STEEL SCRAP
150 $ PER LONG TON
125
21 JUL ?8
19 JUL 78 ?
JUN 78 7 3
JUL 77 52 ,11
PLATINUM
$ PER METRIC TON150 250 $ PER TROY OUNCE
25
125 225
100 200
7,, 0 75 175
50 150
25 125
26 JUL
19 JUL
JUN 78
JUL 77
MP
240.0
240.0
227.7
167.0
Major Producer (MP)
2513.0
24112
245 6
148 6
Dealer fLJSD)
f1, 2441
237.1
1-21 JUL II 1-26 JUL II
0 0 100
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
A-22
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
SELECTED MATERIALS
CURRENT
JAN 78
JUL 77
JUL 76
ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
per pound
55.00
53.00
51.00
44.00
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
395.81
359.36
339.27
316.36
IRON ORE
Non-Bessemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
21.43
21.43
19.50
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ p.er metric ton
NA
150.00
150.00
150.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
56.00
58.50
58.50
39.00
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
t per pound
42.00
41.00
43.00
45.00
NICKEL
Composite US Producer
$ per pound
2.07
2.06
2.41
2.20
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
67.20
72.24
72.00
72.00
TUNGSTEN ORE
Contained Metal
$ per metric ton
16,772.00
21,549.C10
22,821.00
13,954.00
MERCURY
New York
$ per 76 pound flask
160.00
124.23
126.23
110.00
SILVER
LME Cash
t per troy ounce
529.57
472.49
446.93
478.82
GOLD
London Afternoon Fixing Price
$ per troy ounce
187.15
160.45
140.78
125.71
RUBBER
Q PER POUND
60
50
40
30
20
10
NR SR
26 JUL 51.0 E NA
19 JUL 49.6 NA
JUN 78 49.3 NA
JUL 77 39.4 43.8
$ PER METRIC TON
Natural4 (NR)
Synthetic5 (SR)
1974 1975
1976
LUMBER INDEX6
160
1,200
140
49.7
1,000
120
38.4 'BOO
MAY ,
1-26 JUL I I
1977 1978
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS INDEX
300 - - - -
1970=100
250
100 1974
187
1-18 JUL II
1975 1976 1977 1978
100
'-600
80
400
60
1973=100
1974
1975
1976
148
1-21 JUL II
1977 1978
lApproximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the US.
3As of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite."
4Quoted on New York market.
5S-type styrene, US export price.
This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction costs.
7Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
A-23
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
576742 7-78
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3
t
r; ; -Lrt, '11,'?;t1' ,
4 14: 4 ?s,
t i ? "I" I '; ri,"; ' ';;t I111 1" I.
I :; 1111 ; ? 11;1'1- i :.111,.1'11:3,1; r. 11" ri'"' I ; '
? .4s = i1411i 11- 14i j 'El
;
- ----
,
- i ' -
- 1,
- -
_?
'
41)
Approved For Release 2008/07/29: CIA-RDP80T00702A000700070004-3