WEEKLY SUMMARY

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CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9
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S
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December 21, 2016
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April 30, 2008
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1
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Publication Date: 
August 21, 1970
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SUMMARY
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Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY State Dept. review completed Secret n, 3 DIA review(s) completed. 21 August 1970 No. 0384/70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 SECRET (Information as of noon EDT, 20 August 1970) Page Laos: Still Some Obstacles on the Road to Khang Khay . . . . . . . 1 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Cambodia: A Sense of Disquiet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 South Korea: Calling Pyongyang's Hand on Unification . . . . . . . . 6 USSR - North Korea: Liberation Anniversary . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Communist China - USSR: Token Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 EUROPE Moscow Cancels Relief Airlift to Peru . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Italy: New Center-Left Attempt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA Ghana: Election of a Civilian President . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Middle East Peace Efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 SECRET Page i WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 A%Opw SECRET NOW Uruguay: Government Keeps Pressure on the Tupamaros . . . . . . 13 Latin America: Reactions to Diplonapings . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Chile: Communists Hopeful But Nervous . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15. Guyana's Prime Minister Displays His "Independence" . . . . . . . 16 Panama Asks US to Leave Rio Hato . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Argentina: A Look at the New Government NOTES:~Czechoslovakia; Pakistan; Saudi Arabia; Bolivia; Paraguay; Chile - Communist China. SECRET Page ii WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 SECRET g AR EAST f..- aos: Still Some Obstacles on the Road to Khang Khay r he momentum for a continuing d!aloque be- tween the government and the Pathet Lao seems well established, but each side has a number of problems that could delay the next stage in the discussions. Suck Vongsak, the envoy from Com- rnctn'ist leader 5ouphanouvonq, and Soth Pethrasy, the senior Path(.:t Lao rer)resaantative in Vientiane, reet with Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma on 15 August, presumably to discuss matters relating to Ii projected talks A. Khanq Khay to which both sides have tentatively agreed. i he Communist repre- sentatives also delivered a message from Sou- I;hanouvong which, according to a subsequent f'trthet Lao broadcast of the text, protested alleged youth Vietnamese military actions along the Ho Chi Minh trail in Laos. This message did not indicate that the conversations with Vientiane would be broken off on this account, but it did state that such acts "rendered the situation more corrmpli- a ed" and "worsened the prospect'' for continued u.gotiations. The Communists may also object to a proposal by the prime minister that the meetings at Khang Khay should dispense with further preliminary dis- ccussions and move directly to matters of substance. Although an authoritative response to this sugges- tion must come from Souphanouvong, a press ac- count from Vientiane en 17 August, attributed to Souk, claims that Souvanna's proposal will bring about an impasse in the dialogue between the two parties. On the governrnerrl side, serious di sserrsion may still arise over the composition of the nine-man delegation that Souvan,ra proposes to send to Khanq Khay. The prime minister has made an effort to avoid a light over representation among "all the interested Lac) Parties'' until the negotiations reach a more conclusive stage. Fie has gone out of his way in private and public: statements to stress that the delegation is neither "right" nor "center," but only the -government side." HHe also is attempting, ap- parently, to accommodate- the Communist call for two- rather than three-sicced talks at Khanq Khav. The relative inactivity of North Vietnamese and Pathet Lao units in recent weeks n most sec- tions of the country may be directly related to the diplomatic exchanges ere ng on in Vientiane. But the difficulties in mounting attacks and moving supplies during the rainy season arc undoubtedly contributing factors also. Government forces, which usually take the offensive in the summer months, have for the most part stayed in their garrisons this year. Page 1 SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug "0 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET Vietnam Saigon Government Under Fire Much of this criti- cism is directed at the government's performance in the economic field and its failure thus far to secure legislative authorization of special decree powers to deal with the country's pressing eco- nomic problems. The legislation has been stalled in the Upper House, and there are indications that a majority of the senators are prepared to vote against the measure. the country's politi- cal atmosphere appears relatively calm as sena- Page 2 torial candidates campaign for votes in the 30 August election. The government still faces a po- tentially serious problem in veterans' demonstra- tions, which continue to spread to cities outside of Saigon. These disturbances, as well as agitation by students, however, have remained rather minor since last spring, at which time the government's handling of large protest demonstrations gener- ated considerably more intense and widespread criticism than has occurred so far this time. Efforts of a high-level North Vietnamese delegation to sell Hanoi's new Cambodian policies to the Communist world have not been crowned with glory. The delegation, led by politburo mem- ber Hoang Van Hoan, a hard liner, was received by high-ranking party officials in some Eastern European capitals but Hoan got short shrift in Moscow. In Peking, not surprisingly, he was warmly received. The variations in the reception accorded Hoan can be traced directly to his mission. There is little enthusiasm in Moscow or in many other East European capitals for the widening conflict in Indochina, and even the most skillful public relations effort would be likely to win few con- verts. In Peking and Tirana, Hanoi's new mili- tancy already has broad support. There is little evidence that the delegation had any purpose other than generating increased political support for Hanoi's Cambodian policy. For the most part, Hoan contacted none of the officials he would be expected to see if he were seeking new economic or military commitments. Most of his hosts were parliamentary leaders with government positions comparable to his own: he is vice chairman of the National Assembly Stand- ing Committee. SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET Imw Communist shellings and ground probes con- tinue in South Vietnam's northernmost provinces, but combat activity throughout most of the rest of the country remains light. This penetration of first-line North Vietnam- ese combat units into the populated strip along the northern coast, the first in a long time, under- scores the enemy's renewed effort to contest al- lied pacification gains in the region. It appears that South Vietnamese forces defeated 304th Di- vision elements in initial engagements last week, but sizable North Vietnamese forces remain in the lowlands and renewed fighting can be expected soon. In early July, South Vietnam's Chief of Staff General Vien reinforced the northern Military Re- gion with an additional South Vietnamese Marine brigade. The brigade has been sweeping the area west of Da Nang-apparently to help fill the gap left by elements of the 1st US Marine Division that are being withdrawn-but it could be sent farther north to the Quang TO - Thua Thien sector if North Vietnamese attacks there increase. nam there are signs of enemy preparations for new activity. These appear every year as impor- tant Communist holidays in late August and early September approach. So far, this year's prepara- tions do not reflect any great urgency, but fairly widespread harassing attacks may be planned. Page 3 SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET VW AR MEANCHEY ~ONG THOM `,. fit' x j k famPeng .~ +T s MQNDOiy.:" r R " Ko ong 'Chh ang c-a f. f KOMPON1 CHHNAN( CAMBODIA SECRET Page 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET Cambodia: A Sense of Disquiet The military situation, meanwhile, remained relatively quiet during the week with the excep- tion of a battle near Kompong Chhnang town, which began on 17 August. Communist troops attacked government positions south of the town along Route 5 and seized control of several im- portant points on the highway. A 14-truck supply convoy moving down Route 5 from Battambang to Phnom Penh strayed into the Communist posi- tions and its cargo of rice and fish was captured. Three parachute battalions from Phnom Penh have been dispatched to the area in an effort to dislodge a Communist force estimated to number some 1,000 troops. There are rising fears in Phnom Penh that a major Communist assault on the capital may soon be forthcoming. According to the US defense attache there, current Cambodian Army estimates judge that there are approximately 8,000 enemy troops within a 20-mile radius of the city. Elsewhere, there are signs that the Commu- nists may be preparing fresh attacks against the city of Kompong Thom, which remains under intermittent mortar and rocket fire. In an effort to buoy the garrison's spirits and to improve the government's image, Prime Minister Lon Nol spent an entire day this week visiting with the city's defenders. The visit was his first to a battle- front area in Cambodia. 25X1 SECRET Page 5 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET South Korea: Calling Pyongyang's Hand on Unification President Pak Chong-hui in his traditional titularly among those nations that heretofore independence day speech on 15 August called on have been scared off by Seoul's militant the North Koreans to renounce their policy of Communism. 25X1 communizing all of Korea by force so that the peninsula can move toward reunification. In a sharp departure from former South Korean policy, Pak said that his government would no longer oppose North Korean participation in the UN debate on the Korean question providing Pyongyang accepted the competence of the UN to deal with the unification issue. Pak's strong condemnation of the North Korean leadership for causing the continued ten- sion in Korea and his demand that it recognize the competence of the UN-something Pyongyang has never been willing to do-indicate that Pak's primary intention is to wrest the propaganda initi- ative from Pyongyang rather than to advance materially the cause of unification. Pak has been aware for some time that Seoul's intransigent position regarding contact with the North has had less propaganda appeal than has Pyongyang's ostensibly more flexible approach. By stealing the North Koreans' thunder, Pak hopes to strengthen international support for his government, par- USSR - North Korea: Liberation Anniversary Moscow marked the 25th anniversary of Korean liberation from Japan by dispatching a joint party-government delegation on a five-day visit to Pyongyang that ended on 19 August. The delegation was headed by First Deputy Premier Mazurov-the first politburo member to travel to North Korea since May 1969. The primary pur- pose of the visit was to counter the recent warm- ing in Sino - North Korean ties. Although Mazurov reiterated standard Soviet support for Pyongyang's position on reunifica- Pyongyang's renewed propaganda emphasis this year on peaceful reunification is undoubtedly a prime consideration in Pak's departure from past policy. The North Koreans have proposed a step-by-step program leading to eventual North- South elections and the creation of a single gov- ernment, a formula similar to propaganda over- tures they have made in the past. Pyongyang's program is in line with its switch last year to less violent tactics toward the South after infiltrated guerrilla teams failed to foment insurgency in South Korea. The North Korean overture, how- ever, like Pak's proposal, was couched in terms calculated to be unacceptable to the other tion, his visit also highlighted some of the dif- ferences between the two countries. In an obvious barb at Peking, Mazurov called for Soviet-style "unity and cohesion" in the socialist camp. There was no sign, however, that North Korea intends to abandon its reluctance to become directly in- volved in Sino-Soviet squabbling. For its part, Pyongyang used the occasion to chide the Soviets indirectly for underestimating the danger from growing Japanese "militarism." Korean Vice Premier Pak Song-chol, for example, warned in the presence of Mazurov that "one cannot take an ambiguous attitude" toward this problem. SECRET Page 6 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 SECRET ~-' The presence of First Deputy Minister of tary cooperation suggests that, although the pro- Defense Sokolov on the Soviet delegation hints gram will continue, Moscow has no immediate that the Soviet military aid program may have plans to resume major military deliveries, which been discussed. Mazurov's vague remarks on mili- ended early in 1969. 25X1 Communist China - USSR: Token Diplomacy Recent diplomatic moves by both sides are unlikely to lead to any significant breakthrough in Sino-Soviet relations. On 15 August, Moscow announced that it had replaced its chief delegate to the Peking border talks, First Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov, with Deputy Foreign Minis- ter Leonid Ilichev. Although Ilichev is of slightly lesser rank than his predecessor, his appointment has reaffirmed Soviet interest in continuing the negotiations and has ostensibly satisfied China's strong desire that the talks be continued at the deputy foreign minister level. Nevertheless, the Chinese almost certainly view Moscow's choice with some ill feeling, particularly because Ilichev was closely associated with virulent anti-Chinese propaganda during the Khrushchev era and has been in partial disgrace since Khrushchev's ouster. They probably judge that the onus now is on Peking to reciprocate. Thus far, however, there has been no firm indication as to when nese will send an ambassador to Moscow. China's precise motivation for ending its de- lay on accepting a Soviet ambassador remains unclear. Chinese officials in the past had voiced strong concern that Moscow would use the appointment to downgrade the crucial Peking border talks to the ambassadorial level. Moscow's designation of Ilichev as the new head of the Soviet delegation no doubt reassured the Chinese somewhat over Soviet intentions. In any case, Peking almost certainly decided that further stalling would have been counterproductive and would have opened China to charges that it is the intransigent party in the dispute. Ending a four-month period of parrying strong Soviet efforts to accredit an ambassador to Peking, the Chinese charge in Moscow told for- eign diplomats last week that agrement has been granted Vasily Tolstikov. As in the case of Ilichev, Moscow's ambassadorial choice has little appeal for the Chinese. Tolstikov, the former chief of the important Leningrad party apparatus, has no dip- lomatic experience and is known for his orthodox views on ideological matters. The Soviets prob- ably intend to cite his appointment, as well as the dispatch of their new chief negotiator to Peking, as evidence of their desire to normalize relations. Peking's acceptance of Tolstikov, like Mos- cow's appointment of Ilichev, is largely an empty gesture and reflects little prospect for movement in the deadlocked border talks or improvement in the strained relations between the two states. This point was most vividly brought home by propa- ganda exchanges earlier this month in which the Chinese voiced unusually strong concern over Moscow's "greedy ambitions" against China, while the Soviets accused Peking of attempting to "sabotage" the border discussions. SECRET Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET EU ROPE Moscow Cancels Relief Airlift to Peru The USSR has canceled its trouble-ridden airlift to Peru after completing only about one third of the 65 planned flights- The cancellation probably will be the final blow to whatever quick political gains Moscow had hoped to achieve from the aid effort. The Soviets will deliver the remain- ing relief goods by sea. No reason has been given for the cancella- tion, but the airlift was plagued from the very beginning by bureaucratic inefficiency. It ap- peared to be a hastily formulated effort to com- pensate for Moscow's initial failure to respond to the earthquake emergency on 31 May. Several delays and last-minute changes preceded the de- parture of the lead aircraft on 9 July. A number of flights were delayed by equipment failures and arrived in Lima behind schedule. The most serious setback was the loss of one of the large AN-22s over the Labrador Sea on 18 July, which was followed by a week-long pause in flights. Only six subsequent flights were made before the cancella- tion was announced on 15 August. Soviet difficulties in carrying out the airlift have been well covered in the Lima press. Political cartoons have depicted the airlift as a comedy of errors and even the leftist press has found little to play up in the airlift. The cancellation probably will make the aid effort the butt of more deroga- tory comment. The seventeen AN-12s and four AN-22s that made relief flights delivered about 175 tons of materials, including a 200-bed field hospital and three MI-8 helicopters, which will be donated to Peru. The remaining goods, which will include 100 prefabricated houses, could easily be delivered by one ship. The Soviets have hinted, however, that more than one ship may be used, possibly indicating that the amount of aid will be increased. The total Soviet contribution, as orig- inally announced, is worth an estimated $1 million. This is modest compared with the US commitment of some $10 million. SECRET Page 8 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET Italy: New Center-LeftAttempt The new center-left government of Premier Emilio Colombo faces serious problems in both the political and the economic sphere. Conflicts over the limits of acceptable cooperation with the Communists and over economic policy, particu- larly acute prior to Premier Rumor's resignation last month, have probably not been resolved per- manently. The country's recurring crises appear to be causing concern in some military circles. Colombo's political platform provides that Socialist participation with Communists in re- gional or local coalitions does not imply a break with the center-left commitment. The platform requires, however, that center-left coalitions be formed wherever possible, to include the anti- Communist Unitary Socialists (PSU) as well as the Christian Democrats, orthodox Socialists (PSI), and the Republicans. This formula, nevertheless, has not impeded a sharp rise in the number of PSI-Communist coalitions below the national level. Such coopera- tion is the basis of the new governments in the central regions of Tuscany and Umbria, while the Socialists are providing a degree of support to the Communist-dominated government in the Emilia Romagna region. In the municipalities, the first 3,000 governments formed since elections last June showed a 50-percent increase in the number of PSI-Communist coalition governments. Even as the Italian Senate voted confirmation of the Colombo government on 13 August, the PSU-PSI polemic over cooperation with Communists again appeared in the press. The issue also continues to be divisive within the Christian Democratic Party, the largest single party in the coalition. The conflict over economic policy has cen- tered on whether priority should be given to controlling inflation or to enacting expensive social reforms. Last spring, labor demands for reform were marked by work stoppages that de- creased production enough to contribute to the widely feared inflation. Colombo's economic pro- gram calls for worker cooperation to restore strong economic growth and for subsequent grad- ual progress on social reform. The new premier's long experience as minister of the treasury and his reputation as a competent economist improve his chances for success, but his government will prob- ably be engaged in serious trials of strength with the powerful labor federations this fall. In addition to the substantive problems in- herited from his predecessors, Colombo must bear in mind the newly aroused concern of some sen- ior military leaders over the course of political events. If there were a repetition this fall of the seriously disruptive strikes and demonstrations of last year's "hot autumn," Italy's military might consider intervening in the political process. F CZECHOSLOVAKIA:: Both the government and the public seemed intent this week on keeping the peace during the second anniversary of the War- saw Pact invasion on 21 August. Security forces, to prevent antiregime and anti-Soviet demonstra- tions, took a number of precautionary steps, in- cluding the mobilization of extra police units and the limiting of access to potential rallying points in major cities. Organized efforts to mark the occasion were confined to a clandestine leaflet campaign in Prague calling for a quiet evening boycott of public establishments and a self- imposed curfew and blackout. Significantly, the leaflets did not call for active measures such as strikes, which last year triggered widespread clashes with police. The attitude of the public this year may have been a welcome compromise to the regime, which holds onto a fragile truce with party conservatives who favor more repressive government policies. SECRET Page 9 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET MIDDLE EAST-AFRICA Ghana: Election of a Civilian President Ghana has entered a politically unsettled period precipitated by the recent dissolution of the interim presidential commission and the scheduling for 31 August of the indirect election of the young republic's first civilian president. i'rime Minister Busia's authority within the ruling Progress Party (PP) and his leadership potential should become clearer in the process. I he commission had been composed of three key members of the military-police junta That overthrew Nkrumah in 1966 and governed "Ghana until the return of civilian rule last year. Created then as a transitional arrangement with a Maximum life span of three years, the commis- sion's demise at this time was hastened by a clash w.uith the Busia government over appointments to Ghana's new Supreme Court. The dissolution be- -_ame effective on 7 August apparently with only ass flamboyant and politically ambitious young chairman, Lt. Gen. Afrifa, unhappy over the decision. i he civilian who will wield the largely ceremonial powers of the presidency will be chosen by an electoral college consisting of the 240 members of parliament-105 of whom belong to Busia's party-and 24 tribal chiefs. Busia's choice for the office is Chief Justice Akufo-Addo, a 64-year-old lawyer and jurist who played a primary role in drafting the present constitution. The chief justice has long been identified with Busia's political camp, but is not popular among younger elements of the party. Busia will prob- ably be able to bring his party to support Akufo- Addo as its sole officially endorsed candidate. The prime minister would be unlikely to com- promise on anyone who might later prove to be either a potential rival or too independent. Suc- cess in imposing his own man would enhance Busia's control over the party and the gov- ernment. Other government changes can be expected soon, as Busia tries to solidify his position further and to shake up a government whose performance has been only mediocre so far. The prime minister reportedly wants Foreign Minister Victor Owusu, one of the major party leaders, appointed chief ustice to succeed Akufo-Addo. By shifting the ambitious Owusu. Busia would hope to neutralize a potential competitor and also to ensure greater party control over the judiciary. F__J 25X1 Middle East Peace Efforts Tel Aviv has continued to insist on the validity of its claims of Soviet-Egyptian violations Of the cease-fire within the 50 kilometer "stand- still" zone west of the Suez Canal and was clearly irritated with what it took to be a rather casual dismissal by the US of Israeli "proof." The Israelis have charged new violations and have pub- lished some of their evidence of earlier ones. Israeli leaders are still saying, however, that Israel intends to proceed with the Jarring talks. Israeli Ambassador Rabin has returned to Israel "on leave," suggesting that new tactics may be under discussion in Jerusalem. Prime Minister Golda Meir pinpointed the Israeli worries by stating Tel Aviv would never have agreed to a cease-fire had it thought that in the event of renewed hostilities Israel would be weaker than before. She said Israel views the violations with the "utmost gravity" and claimed that Israel has "indisputable proof" that the Egyptians have redeployed missiles in the Suez SECRET Page 10 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 5t,l~KL, 1 ~' Canal region. Mrs. Meir told her Labor Party that this was not an "encouraging beginning." The US Embassy in Tel Aviv reports that the redeploy- ment issue has put the government on the defen- sive and has tended to portray the now-renegade Gahal party as a righteous prophet of an impend- ing Israeli political and military disaster. This fac- tor-in addition to Israel's already high degree of sensitivity on security matters-goes a long way toward explaining Israel's hardheadedness on the alleged cease-fire violations. Israeli leaders do not expect the Arabs to follow through on the peace effort, and the reputed moves have added to Israeli suspicions. Israeli officials have seemed to indicate that, although such a missile shift is to the disadvantage of Israel, they take some satis- faction in US assurances that the military "bal- ance" will be maintained. Although continued and substantiated Soviet-Egyptian violations of this kind would al- most certainly block Israel's participation in talks under Jarring, Israeli leaders say they intend to proceed. Mrs. Meir told her Labor Party on 16 August that the government would concentrate in the talks on trying to determine the nature of the peace the Arabs want, and that if it were "not illusory," Israeli concessions were possible. She emphasized that what Israel wanted was not ter- ritory but security. Foreign Minister Eban also talked in terms of proceeding but threw up a verbal barrage; he declared flatly that there could be no peace with Egypt unless Israel controlled Sharm ash-Shaykh, nor could an accord be reached with Syria unless the Israelis remained in the Golan Heights. The Egyptian public media have been prominently reporting Israeli charges that Egypt has installed new antiaircraft missiles along the Suez Canal in violation of the cease-fire. The media have characterized the Israeli charges as an organized campaign designed to wreck the US peace initiative and upset the cease-fire. Egypt's official spokesman was quoted by the press on 16 Page 11 August as having declared that Cairo did not intend to reply to Israel's allegations. Egypt's chief representative in the US told newsmen on 13 August, however, that Cairo denies the Israeli allegations. The Soviet news media first publicized the Israeli charges on 18 August in a Pravda article that cited the Egyptian denial and quoted the Egyptian press as stating that Israel needs this "myth" to try to block the Jarring mission while pressing for new US arms deliveries. An article in Red Star on the same day also discussed the alleged Egyptian violation of the cease-fire and quoted ABC news as saying there is no proof of the charge. Inter-Arab squabbling, agitated by Egypt's acceptance of the US peace initiative and the cease-fire, has continued. Cairo and Baghdad radios pursued their war of words, with Cairo accusing the Iraqi regime of "imprisoning the vitality" of the Iraqi people and Baghdad radio accusing Egypt of arresting Iraqi and Palestinian students for unknown reasons. Egypt's leading newspaper on 18 August also charged that a series of "unjustified and arbitrary" measures have been taken against Egyptian nationals residing in Iraq. The depth of the rift between Egypt and Algeria was also made public as both Cairo and Algiers announced the withdrawal of the contingent of Algerian soldiers from the Suez Canal front. At the UN, mediator Jarring is still trying to get Israel, Jordan, and Egypt to agree on the time, place, and particularly the diplomatic level of peace talks. The parties have all reportedly ac- cepted New York as the location, but Egypt and Jordan think the talks should be held at the ambassadorial level, while Israel wants them at the foreign ministers' level. Pranjiyah Elected Lebanese President During a stormy session of the Chamber of Deputies on 17 August, Sulayman Franjiyah was SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 SECRET elected president by a one-vote marqin. In the final days of a campaign thrown into confusion by the abrupt withdrawal of the frontrunner, ,ex-President Shihab, Franjiyah was increasingly mentioned as a compromise candidate. Support largely from the center and from the Maronite Christian right, Franjiyah's own quarter, provided the votes necessary for his election. Despite the closeness of the balloting, -ranjiyah, an experienced politician, has a fairly oroad base of support among the leaders of all the ;political groups. Although he may make a number of cabinet changes after he is inaugurated on 23 September, Franjiyah will probably attempt to 'AKISTAN: President Yahya's announcement ?n 15 August postponing elections to the con- ;'+_itutional convention has met with little criticism. Yahya believed that the major effort required to recover from this summer's severe looding in East Pakistan would interfere unduly with elections scheduled for 5 October. Because itamadan-the Moslem month of fasting-occurs in November this year, the polling was rescheduled for 1 December. 'SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Arabia now has finally made the quarterly payments of $24 million to I=:gypt and $9.6 million to Jordan that were due on 15 July-these subsidies were agreed upon at the Arab summit in Khartoum after the June 1967 war. The payments had been withheld in the hope that Egypt and Jordan would put pres- sure on Syria to allow repairs to the damaged maintain a national unity cabinet such as is presently in office under President Hilu. In the field of foreign policy, Franjiyah probably will maintain Lebanon's traditional pro- Western policy and close relations with the US. At home he will be faced with the same diffi- culties as was his predecessor: the danger of a deeper involvement in the Arab-Israeli problem and in the struggle with the fedayeen. In the past Franjiyah has taken a strong line against the fedayeen, but his actions may be tempered by the knowledge that previous attempts to move against them have brought Lebanon close to civil Yahya cleared his decision with at least some politicians, most of whom, hoping that a delay would give them time to improve their positions, welcomed the announcement. Leaders of the front-running parties-who wanted elections held as originally scheduled-have remained quiet Tapline through which Saudi oil is piped to the Mediterranean. The pipeline has been out of com- mission since 3 May. Neither state was able to convince the Syrians, however, and the Saudis have now told both recipients that tight finances might force them to make future payments partly in crude oil. SECRET Page 12 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET iwv WESTERN HEMISPHERE Uruguay: Government Keeps Pressure on the Tupamaros An estimated 14,000 army troops and police continue to comb Montevideo in search of the US agronomist, the Brazilian diplomat, and their ter- rorist captors. police have turned up arms, propaganda, and suspected terrorists, but they still have no sub- stantial clues as to where the hostages are bei held. A total of over 180 Tupamaros now are in jail, but officials believe that it will take several years to crush the sub- versives completely. The Tupamaros demon- strated on Wednesday that they are far from beaten by holding a young American prisoner while using his car to attempt two bank robberies. A policeman was killed trying to stop them. Government authorities have generally dis- counted the authenticity of the numerous com- muniques found in Uruguay, Argentina, and Brazil warning that the Brazilian would be killed unless 183 Uruguayan prisoners were freed; most did not mention the US hostage, Fly. Confusion also surrounds the purported efforts of the Pacheco administration to negotiate with the terrorists. Publicly, the government con- tinues its refusal to consider releasing any pris- oners for the hostages. The press, however, views Raul Sendic the recent "secret" meeting between arrested Tupamaro leader Raul Sendic and some of his jailed comrades, which was authorized by the government, as a sign that behind-the-scenes nego- tiations are in progress. The government has re- fused to comment on the meeting. The arrest of a Catholic priest and a Methodist minister who re- portedly were attempting to negotiate with the Tupamaros through a politician only added to the confusion. The clergymen have since been re- leased, but the politician will stand trial. F_ SECRET Page 13 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET Latin America: Reactions to Diplonapings The audacious action of the Tupamaros in kidnaping three foreigners and murdering one has sent shock waves through governments and terror- ist organizations alike in Latin America. Govern- ments have responded to the events in the light of their own experiences, while extremists are assess- ing their own situations and some may attempt to imitate the Tupamaros. 1-he strongest reaction has come from Brazil, whose consul in Uruguay is still held by the terrorists. Some Brazilian officials, who remember their own dealings with terrorists holding foreign diplomats, have been critical of Uruguay for re- fusing to negotiate with the Tupamaros. Others, however, realize the constitutional problem raised because the prisoners are under the control of the judiciary and not necessarily subject to executive pardon. Some Brazilians, particularly military officers, believe that a hard line by Uruguay will permit Brazil also to refuse to release prisoners if another foreigner is kidnaped in Brazil. French officials have become extremely con- cerned about the security threat, and at least one of its ambassadors has left Latin America. I n Chile, officials of the French Embassy visited Congress and the police to ask for additional protection. A French security official visited Chile on 13 August to assess the threat] Some Latin American governments have supported Pacheco's stand. In Guatemala, where the West German ambassador was murdered by his abductors, Congress has passed a resolution backing Uruguay. The Chilean Government has commented that it, too, is constitutionally re- strained from extending wholesale pardons to imprisoned criminals. President Levingston of Argentina stated on 14 August that "there should be no negotiations with extremist groups that exercise blackmail as a form of pressure against governments." In Paraguay, a legislative proposal has been introduced that would mete out ex- tremely harsh sentences to abductors of foreign diplomats. Some extremist groups probably have been inspired by the action of the Tupamaros to under- take similar operations. Officials in Costa Rica, where a Nicaraguan guerrilla leader is imprisoned, have received abduction threats. Not all leftist groups approve of the Tupa- maros' action, however, and several have been particularly critical of the slaying of the US offi- cial. Although Havana has lauded the "prudent and firm policy" followed by the Tupamaros in the Mitrione case, it has avoided specifically praising the killing. The Organization of American States has been ignored for the most part with respect to the kidnaping developments. A resolution calling on all governments not to provide asylum to people released in exchange for diplomats is presently under consideration by the OAS juridical commit- tee. This committee was ordered by the first General Assembly in July to draft proposals to deal with terrorism, especially the kidnaping of diplomats, and to report its findings to the OAS Permanent Council by the end of November. Uru- guay has presented its position on dealing with the Tupamaros to the OAS Permanent Council, but no action is anticipated because Uruguay said it was not asking for OAS action at this SECRET 11age 14 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 SECRET Iwo, Chile: Communists Hopeful but Nervous The Communists are optimistic that Marxist Salvador Allende will win the presidency in the election on 4 September but they are concerned that he might be denied the victory and are there- fore making contingency plans to avert such an eventuality. Most observers, however, still believe that conservative former president Jorge Ales- sandri will get more votes than the other two candidates. Leaders of the Communist Party (PCCh), the predominant element in the Popular Unity (UP) coalition backing Allende, believe that the So- cialist senator will win enough votes to be one of two contenders in the congressional runoff that is required if no candidate wins a popular majority. The Communists, who are adept politicians, re- portedly will try to influence Congress to choose Allende if he comes within 100,000 votes of Alessandri. They plan to stage strikes and demon- strations immediately after the election to con- vince Christian Democratic legislators that an Alessandri administration would create such deep divisions in the country that it would not be able to govern or ensure public order. This scheme, of course, is predicated on their assumption that Christian Democrat Radomiro Tomic will run third in the race and that support of only about 20 of his more leftist party colleagues in Congress might be needed for an Allende victory in the runoff. The Communists also hope that the mass public demonstrations will discourage rightists or the military from mounting a coup to prevent an Allende presidency. The Communists' fear of a coup is almost pathological, particularly inasmuch as they were surprised by the army uprising last October. The PCCh political commission has gone so far as to make plans for the preservation of the party structure on a clandestine basis in the event of political persecution--a situation the well- established party has not faced in nearly 20 years. The Communists' contingency plans even include the measure of putting armed forces and police officials who might lead or aid a coup under house arrest. Suspicion that the election will be mania has also been expressed by spokes- men for extreme leftist revolutionaries, who recommend the use of terrorist tactics following the elections. The PCCh, however, fears that vio- lence by extremists would backfire, and its con- tingency plans include control of all public demonstrations by organizations under PCCh discipline. SECRET Page 15 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET Guyana's Prime Minister Displays His "Independence" Prime Minister Burnham has decided to ac- cede to a Soviet initiative proposing that the two countries establish diplomatic relations, and has made another move to exhibit his "inde- pendence" of foreign influence by reaffirming his plans to seek greater government control of for- eign-owned businesses. Burnham will probably announce the agree- ment on relations with the USSR in the near future, perhaps before he leaves on 2 September for the nonaligned summit conference in Lusaka, Zambia. The Soviets approached Guyanese diplomats in Washington, New York, and London last spring with a suggestion that Guyana demon- strate its nonaligned posture by opening relations. The delay in announcing the agreement is prob- ably due to Guyana's preference for relations with nonresident status over the Soviets' desire for a resident mission. Government leaders are fearful that a resident mission would pose serious security problems, and Burnham believes that re- lations between the two countries could be served by their respective missions to the United Na- tions-an arrangement Guyana now has with Yugoslavia and other countries. The Guyanese ambassador to the US expects the Soviets to accept the nonresident offer, but Burnham may give in if the Soviets insist on their terms. The agreement will probably have some po- litical repercussions. Many will interpret it as Soviet abandonment of Communist leader Cheddi Jagan; the moderates within Burnham's party and the conservative United Force Party may also be quite disturbed. Nevertheless, Burnham will prob- ably follow through because of his interest in demonstrating an "independent" foreign policy- particularly with regard to the US-and because he believes the move would enhance his standing at the nonaligned conference. Burnham, with a 14-man entourage, will be the only Western Hemisphere chief of state at the Lusaka meeting. Jamaican Prime Minister Shearer has reversed his earlier decision to attend the conference, concluding that it would be of no importance. He also said that a tour of African nations that he had planned in conjunction with the conference would be a waste of time. Burn- ham, however, will be happy to be the only representative from the Caribbean. He will prob- ably pursue his long-standing attack on "colonial influence" and "imperialist control" throughout the world. After the meeting, he will tour some African nations. Bu rnham recently announced his gov- ernment's intention to begin negotiations with the large Canadian- and US-owned bauxite companies aimed at acquiring at least 51-percent control of that industry. Bauxite is the largest export industry in Guyana, accounting for nearly half of last year's export earnings. He also an- nounced that the recently established External Trade Board, which was originally organized to control imports only from Communist countries, will actually control all imports. This will give the government an effective instrument for setting prices on all imports, and would be in line with Burnham's "cooperative" campaign aimed at gain- ing more "meaningful participation" in the coun- try's natural resources. He asserted that "in the past the foreign investors have enjoyed the lion's share of the cake and we, the jackal's pick- ings." SECRET Page 16 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Auq 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 SECRET %W BOLIVIA: Terrorist bombings in La Paz, student battles in Santa Cruz, army clashes with guerrillas in the jungles, and continued tension between the military and President Ovando characterized the unsettled political situation in Bolivia this week. Such warring between the political left and right will probably continue until the uncertainty sur- rounding the government-who will lead it and what direction it will take-is ended. Until the situation is clarified, both the right and the left will continue to make demands of the govern- ment, with at least some expectation they will be heeded. The armed forces' decision to keep Ovando on as president when he capitulated to their most immediate demands earlier this month amounts to no more than an uneasy truce. Minister of Interior Colonel Ayoroa is playing an increasingly important role in the military's opposition to President Ovando and, being more rash and daring than army commander General Miranda, he may force a final confrontation between the military and Ovando. At present, both sides are maneu- vering for a stronger position. PARAGUAY: Government security forces have arrested more than 60 persons in connection with an abortive plot to assassinate President Stroess- ner. The attempt on the President's life appar- ently was scheduled to take place during public ceremonies in Asuncion on 15 August. On the previous day, the Paraguayan Navy intercepted four terrorists trying to enter the country clan- destinely from Argentina. Small arms, ammuni- tion, and a submachine gun were found aboard the small river craft. CHILE - COMMUNIST CHINA: Chile is in- creasing its contacts with Peking. An agricultural official will visit China next month in search of products that Chile can buy in order to maintain its sales of high-cost natural nitrate. China is the only remaining significant market for what was once Chile's major export. Chile is also interested in selling its increasing copper production. Sales of nitrate and copper make up most of the trade between the two countries, which has amounted Interrogation of the four-two Uruguayans, an Argentine, and an Iraqi-resulted in the arrest of approximately 60 people, mostly Uruguayans and Argentines, believed to have been involved in the plot. The government's roundup of student leaders this week does not appear to be related. The existence of the assassination plot, however, may deter opposition criticism of the preventive detention of the students, who are believed to have been planning political a itation and demon- strations in the capital. to under $1 million annually in recent years. Communist Chinese delegates have been invited to a conference of Pacific Ocean countries in Chile in September that is being organized by a confidant of Foreign Minister Valdes. Although Chile maintains diplomatic relations with Na- tionalist China, the government in 1965 approved what is now the only Communist Chinese trade mission in Latin America outside Havana. SECRET Page 17 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 SECRET Colon France-Field Free Zone /CriS ob Gatu Got- p Locks ~[`Teblas ir SECRET P'd' \ An" I Locks Fort a1i>vI(o.as CleyLer \ ~/v~ c /lore ? ra Lock: Balbo ---- International boundary OO National capital 'om Urban area -- - Panama Canal RA v or PANAMA Page 18 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Aug 70 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 SECRET Panama Asks US to Leave Rio Hato Unable to extract sufficient political advan- tage from an extension of the Rio Hato Base Agreement that expires on 23 August, the govern- ment last week told the US it would have to vacate the 19,120-acre training area, which in- cludes an airfield. This decision reverses a commitment General Torrijos gave the US last year. At that time, Torrijos had promised General Westmoreland that the agreement would be extended without condi- tions pending conclusion of Canal Treaty negotia- tions. More recently, however, Torrijos had de- manded a quid pro quo, placing particular em- phasis on gaining the return of Old France Field in order to enlarge the Colon Free Zone. The government has agreed to a joint press communique, and says that media treatment will be kept in low key. Nevertheless, Torrijos probably expects to make some political mileage from the return of Rio Hato. The country's con- trolled press will probably stress the advantageous land-use possibilities of the Rio Hato area- including development as a tourist resort-and presumably will also commend Torrijos for his ability to hold his own in dealings with the US. The government has also held out the possi- bility of negotiating a new base agreement some- time in the future and undoubtedly hopes to use Rio Hato as a bargaining counter in any new Canal Treaty negotiations. SECRET Page 19 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Secret *40, Secret Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Special Report Argentina: A Look at the New Government Secret N! 43 21 August 1970 No. 0384/70A Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Brigadier General (Retired) Roberto Levingston is the second military leader to govern Argentina since 1966, when the armed forces overthrew the elected govern- ment and declared that a national "revolution" had begun. In structure his adminis- tration appears to differ little from that of his predecessor, Lieutenant General Juan Carlos Ongania. Whereas Ongania wielded a great deal of personal power, the present system involves a committee composed of Levingston and the commanders in chief of the armed forces. The new administration is expected to continue most of the policies of the Ongania government. Some reordering of priorities in the economic sphere apparently is taking place, however. The new Argentine Government, like its forerunner, is a military dictatorship supported by a cabinet composed largely of civilian tech- nicians. Legislative power has been lodged in the executive branch ever since the dismissal of the National Congress in 1966, .but the judicial branch of government remains independent. President Roberto Levingston shares power with the commanders in chief of the armed forces, who installed him as Chief Executive on 8 June 1970. Although riot a mere figurehead, Levingston has far less authority than did his predecessor, Lieutenant General Juan Carlos Ongania, who was able to establish a virtual one- man rule during most of his three and a half years in office. The strong man of the present regime is the commander in chief of the army, Alejandro Lanusse: the imprint of his political philosophy is evident in most of the government's policy state- ments to date. General Lanusse professes to be a supporter of constitutional government, and is considered a conservative in economic matters. In his most recent statements, however, he has stressed the need for accelerated economic development and implied that. "criteria of efficiency and compati- bility" should be subordinated to that goal. La- nusse's most significant political characteristic is Special Report his intense opposition to former dictator Juan Peron, who imprisoned him, and to Peron's fol- lowers. Lanusse claims not to believe in total repression of the Peronists, but he has always advocated control of their activities. The new cabinet is composed of seven minis- tries and a number of subordinate secretariats, and its members represent a wide range of politi- cal views. The heterogeneous character of the Roberto Levingston (right) being sworn in as Argentine president. 21 August 1970 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 UJ~\J1\JL 1 cabinet apparently resulted from a deliberate at- tempt on the part of the military chiefs to broaden the base of the government by including civilians from most of the major political factions. General Lanusse reportedly hopes that this tactic will allow the government to woo some of these people away from their traditional political loyal- ties and perhaps to buy time to accomplish the goals it has set for itself. Having pledged itself to an early return to constitutional government, the Levingston admin- istration, according to General Lanusse, has as its first priority to prepare the nation for free elec- tions. The regime does not plan to permit existing political parties to reorganize but hopes to create a broad-based party similar to one of the major parties in the United States. In approaching this task, however, the new leadership faces a dilernma that has plagued every Argentine government since 1955. The strongest political force in the nation is composed of fol- lowers of former dictator Juan Peron, who was ousted in that year and now is exiled to Spain. The current military leaders are adamantly op- posed to any return to power b the Peron ists as long as the aging dictator lives. The govern- ment apparently hopes to i utl Peeronist power by submerging the movement in a newly created political organization. Well aware that structuring a new party will take a long time, the regime has begun to hedge on a timetable for elections= no elections are planned tor at least ree years and no prepara- tions will begin before that time. To date there has been little public reaction to the delay. Special Report General Alejandro Lanusse, Commander in Chief of the Armv There has been considerable anxiety within the government over economic policies. Pro- ponents of stabilization fear that the Levingston administration will adopt measures leading to an accelerated inflationary spiral, wiping out gains made under the Ongania government. President Levingston has sought to reassure the supporters of stabilization by stating publicly that Ongania's policies will be continued. Goals that he detailed in a nationwide broadcast on 25 June differed little from the most recent aims of the Ongania administration: rapid and sustained growth, a more equitable distribution of income, and development of basic industries and infra- structure. The over-all tenor of the speech, how- ever, suggested that the new regime was reorder- ing priorities, and that increased real wages and social welfare needs would no longer be second- ary to price stability. 21 August 1970 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 The government devalued the peso shortly after taking office. The minister of economy justi- fied the move by arguing that an undervalued peso would protect exchange reserves and pre- serve the nation's economic autonomy by making it unnecessary to subordinate economic policy to the need to satisfy foreign financial centers. Most Argentine businessmen, bankers, and economists, however, consider this move premature and even unnecessary. In spite of countervailing tariff and tax measures, the devaluation will probably add to inflationary pressures and weaken investor con- fidence. The vague and sometimes contradictory statements of the new minister of economy have done little to allay the fears of the business com- munity. Despite the Levingston administration's antipathy toward the Peronists, it has been ac- tively courting the powerful, Peron ist-dominated General Confederation of Labor (CGT) in an effort to ensure social peace. A Peronist has been appointed secretary of labor', and negotiations for a wage increase and a return to the collective bargaining system outlawed by Ongania are being considered. Long splintered into warring factions, the trade union movement recently achieved a some- what shaky unity at a CGT congress when repre- sentatives of the five major factions won seats on the governing board. The net effect of the con- gress was to gloss over the deep political and economic differences that have long divided the movement, and union leaders apparently were encouraged to renew demands on the government that had been abandoned in 1969 because of dissension within the CGT. The fragility of this recently achieved unity will probably cause the labor movement to oper- ate in a low key fashion in the short run. The immediate goal of the CGT leaders appears to be participation in planning the nation's economic policies. Should the L.evingston government fail Special Report to heed their demands on wage/price issues, how- ever, they are likely to present a more combative posture in the future. The Levingston government is currently faced with the threat of growing guerrilla and terrorist activities in urban areas, carried out for the most part by roving bands of leftist youths. During the first four months of this year, terrorist attacks, mainly on military and police guard posts, were generally executed by groups of four or five individuals who left markings indi- cating membership in revolutionary Peronist or pro-Communist organizations. During this period many bank robberies were also committed by small groups. Since President Levingston came to power, however, several larger scale raids, which appear to have been coordinated, have been carried out. On I July a 15-man commando group of left-wing Peronist orientation cut telephone lines, occupied the police station, and robbed a bank in a small town near Cordoba. The group called themselves the "Montoneros," as did the terrorists who kid- naped and murdered former president Pedro Aramburu. Four weeks later, a similar raid was conducted on a town near Buenos Aires by a group calling itself the Revolutionary Armed Forces that may be connected with the left-wing Peronist Armed Forces. The insurgency situation is exacerbated by the involvement of dissident Roman Catholic priests of the Third World Movement who are dedicated to bringing about a socialist form of government in Argentina. As part of a stepped-up police and military effort to counter the insur- gency, the Levingston government has attempted to launch a campaign to discredit the movement. -3- 21 August 1970 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 vrn' LJi;vl%.? , 1 i- The government is being aided by the church hierarchy, which has denounced the activities of the Third World priests as a deviation from doc- trinal orthodoxy. Foreign Affairs The Levingston government is pro-Western and strongly anti-Communist, but it plans to maintain diplomatic relations with all nations. It dreams of playing an influential role as an inter- mediary between the "great powers" and the less developed nations of the world. With respect to neighboring countries, the administration is actively attempting to cultivate better relations with Chile, which it sees as the country closest to Argentina in terms of eco- nomic development and human resources. It is somewhat concerned that a leftist regime may come to power in Chile following the September presidential election there, but it reportedly has no plans to intervene militarily if that should occur. The government is also concerned that Bolivia may become more leftist. A recent visit there by the Argentine foreign minister was de- scribed as an attempt to strengthen the political center in Bolivia. Argentina has also expressed an interest in helping Bolivia to develop the prov- inces contiguous to its own territory. President Levingston plans to meet with President Pacheco of Uruguay soon in a continu- ation of the personal diplomacy instituted by Ongania. Because both Argentina and Brazil have mili- tary governments, their concert of interest has tended to mitigate somewhat the rivalries and suspicions that have existed historically between the two nations. The L.evingston government does not appear to have made any special overtures to Brazil, however. Special Report Argentina -4- 21 August 1970 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927A008100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 As an interim government, the Levingston administration probably will concentrate on domestic problems. In the face of increased inter- nal instability due to terrorist and guerrilla activi- ties, it probably will try to buy social peace with concessions to other potential troublemakers. Among these, the labor unions are the most likely antagonists. The government may therefore sacri- fice the economic stabilization program in order to buy the support of lower and middle-class workers. The government probably will drag its feet with respect to political normalization. Given the apathy with which the public has greeted the delay in setting up a timetable for elections, the announced three-year moratorium on political ac- tivity may be stretched to five or more. Special Report When elections are held, they will probably be staged by the military with handpicked candi- dates, as there is no training ground for fledgling politicians under the present governmental sys- tem. Participation in the trade union movement could conceivably provide the necessary exposure for emerging leaders, but they would probably be Peronists and consequently unacceptable to the military. The Argentine public, although disillusioned by the ineptitude of the old political groupings, is not likely to respond enthusiastically to a fabri- cated party. Participation in elections will prob- ably therefore be minimal, and the majority of Argentine citizens will remain estranged from the political mainstream in their country. ~ 25X1 -5- 21 August 1970 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 Secret %NV Secret Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9 ~e.~=, Page( s) Next 21 Page(s)> In Do Document Denied Approved For Release 2008/04/30: CIA-RDP79-00927AO08100050001-9