REQUEST FOR SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE (Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000500060023-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 13, 2002
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: November 12, 1965
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2003/02/27 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R000500060023-8
DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON. D. C. 20301
DIA review(s) completed.
TS-00273/AP-2
NOV 1965
MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHAIRMAN, UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
SUBJECT: Request for Special National Intelligence Estimate (U)
1. (TS) The Secretary of Defense has requested that a study be initiated
which focuses on the problem of the size of the Strategic Reserve after
Phase II buildup in South Vietnam. Preliminary consideration of this pro-
blem indicates an urgent requirement for a Special National Intelligence
Estimate (SNIE). Considering the importance of determining the size and
composition of the Armed Forces during the critical years ahead, and the
necessity of making known these requirements to assure that meaningful
conventional options are available to the President, it is requested that
a SNIE be prepared addressing reactions to a Phase II buildup or to
US/Allied success in South Vietnam.
2. (TS) As terms of reference it is requested that this SNIE address two
questions:
a. What would be the probable reactions to a Phase II buildup con-
sisting of:
(1) The deployment of an additional Field Force Headquarters to
the Third Corps area.
(2) Introduction of 2 more Army Divisions, one additional Marine
Division and an Armored Cavalry Regiment (aimed at extending control and
releasing ARVN forces for additional operations in South Vietnam).
(3) The deployment of 4 additional Tactical Fighter Squadrons.
(4) Overall force buildup from 219,000 of Phase I to 347,000 of
Phase II.
(5) Intensified air strikes against North Vietnam to include the
de facto sanctuaries previously observed, airfields, land and water LOC's,
POL and SAM sites, and aerial mining of major ports of entry.
b. What would be the probable reactions to US/Allied success in
South Vietnam resulting in:
(1) The DRV being forced to cease its direction and
Approved For Release 2003/02/27 : CIA-RDP80B01.676R000500Q60023-
 Approved For Release 2003/02/27 : CIA-RDP80B01676R000500060023-8
(2) The defeat of the Viet Cong in South Vietnam.
(3) The GVN assuming control over all of South Vietnam.
3. (S) In relation to the above two questions it is requested that
judgments be made regarding:
a. Communist China. Considering her prestige involved and her
commitment to support revolutionary causes and "movements of national
liberation" what CHICOM reactions should be anticipated:
(1) Overt intervention with conventional force? If the
CHICOM's decided to attack overtly, how much and what kind of strategic
warning would we expect?
(2) Covert intervention or infiltration, for example, in Laos,
Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Burma?
(3) Action to divert our attention elsewhere, for example,
Korea, Taiwan, Burma. or India?
(4) Logistical or other type support to North Vietnam?
b. USSR. What reactions should be anticipated?
c. DRV/NFLSV. What reactions should be anticipated?
d. Free World, particularly France. What reactions should be
anticipated?
oral. USA
Approved For Release 2003/02/27: CIA-RDP80B01676R00050000023-8
2
 TOP SECRET
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CIA CONTROL NO.
188750
DOC. NO.
DATE DOCUMENT RECEIVED
DOC. DATE 12 Nov
11/15/65
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9.60 26 USE PREVIOUS EDITIONS. TOP SECRET (40)