BIG BOOST PLANNED FOR SOVIET PRODUCTION OF REFRIGERATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A002200060001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 1, 1965
• Content Type: BRIEF

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INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
CIA/RR CB 65-6
January 1965
Copy No.
BIG BOOST PLANNED
FOR SOVIET PRODUCTION OF REFRIGERATORS
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Office of Research and Reports
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
BIG BOOST PLANNED
FOR SOVIET PRODUCTION OF REFRIGERATORS
any production
An extraordinarily large boost in double Soviet
yearly increase.
is expected in 1965 -- more than riger In order to meet the plannemo oe than 60 percent 8 million
that oafto
1964. goal f in 1965, output must increase
Although such a large increase normally feals seemSunattufficaeikantblapace,
are several signs that the plan may prove u
e for meeting the goal for 196d of thedreconstrubt on andrexpansi.ons com-
missioning of new plants an
ones. Furthermore, the industry apparently is being given a higher
priority by the present regime. In his speech to the Supreme Soviet on
9 December, Premier Kosygin singled out refrigerators as an impor-
tant consumer need that must be met in the "netr o future, " l/ and
dination
Moscow recently has taken administrative steps improve
in production of refrigerators and to bring about a more strict enforce-
ment of plan goals .
Production of 1. 8 million refrigerators obviosly will cannot rtisfy ed;
pent-up demand for this product. Waiting periods be equir
and the gdalit' ,of some = so c1s;P00 Nor will such a volume of produc-g tion represent an effort likely value ofrreother machine buildin frigerators produc d repre-
grams significantly. The total v
sents a minor part of the output of the machine building industries,
an percent.
comprising in 1965 considerably
mpo tant st p toweards,
this planned increase in refrigerators
soothing the dissatisfaction of a populace long accustomed to waiting
lists. 2/
1. Introduction rmed
The revised goal for 1965 of l08 million 62 percent higher
by Premier Kosygin in his speech 9
butsprrepresents a near
than the estimated level of production
obably not achieved,
doubling of the rate of growth in 1964. Except for 1963, when
20 and 30 percenpea h yearrsincer1959,
of growth have ranged between as shown in the following tabulation:
~T E I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
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19624
1-959 1960 1.961 1962 1963 Plan Estimate
Production
(thousand
units) 426
530 686 838 911 1,205* 1,100
Percent of
increase 18 22 "~n 0-,
1.965
Plan
1, 777**
2. Greater Official Interest in Consumer Durables
Since about 1950, when the USSR began to produce household appli-
ances such as refrigerators and washing machines, production of these
and a few small appliances has grown fairly steadily. Now the Soviet
leadership is taking an even more active interest in the industry. Be-
sides the emphasis given this subject in Kosygin's speech to the Supren;
Soviet, there has been much discussion of it in the Soviet press,
Ekonomicheskaya gazeta, the Soviet economic weekly, contains an item
on some type of refrigerator in nearly every issue. In a major admin-
istrative change in September the Council of Ministers of the USSR
organized the All-Union Association for Electrical Household Machines
and Appliances. Its mission is to coordinate all work in developing
specialized plants; to approve technical specifications and plans for
materials, supplies, and component parts used by the industry; and to
carry on an extensive publishing effort. 5/ Because there had been
previously no single organization governing production of consumer
durables, output of various nonspecialized plants was potentially volatile,
depending on the priority of the mainline item, and enforcement of
planned goals was virtualli, impossible.
3. New Production Capacity
Preparations for an upsurge in production of refrigerators have been
underway for several years and should soon begin to reach fruition. New
production capacity comprising well over 50 percent of the increment
needed in 1965 has been accounted for,
production in the last 2 years have plans fSeen or increases in 1965 ofebetween
An upward revision of the original goal of 1, 450, 000 that was set in
1959. 4/
C-O--N-F-I-D- '_NN
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5, 000 and 100, 000 refrigerators, several times the production rates
planned for 1964. In addition, at least one plant is being mechanized
and automated and expects a sizable increase in production. Presum-'
ably, there are sufficient gaps in intelligence to account for the re-
mainder of the increment.
Soviet industry has been notoriously slow in commissioning new
plants or expanding old ones, and a continuance of this record could
delay achievement of the goal for 1965. Compared with past efforts,
however, an expanded investment program obviously is underway, and
a large upsurge in production of refrigerators will occur as a result --
if not in 1965, then at least in 1966.
The need for greater specialization and standardization -- a goal
of the administrative reform -- has been obvious for some time. Pro-
duction at present is carried on in 26 different plants, mostly as a
sideline in subsidiary shops of automobile, elecitrical machinery, and
other machine building plants. As recently as 1961, no plant was de-
voted exclusively to production of refrigerators, but now there are
several. The Leningrad Pressing Plant No. 2 was the first to special-
ize completely, a change that was expected to lead to a tripling of the
output of refrigerators by the plant. 6/ Were other plants to move
toward specialization, a further boost in production of refrigerators
would occur.
4. Quality and Distribution
The quality of Soviet refrigerators is still far below US standards,
and some are obsolete even by Soviet standards. The 11Baku1? refrig-
erator, for example, has been prohibited by the State Committee on
Trade of the Council of Ministers, USSR, from being sold until its
defects are corrected. 7/ Even so, this model is still sold in
Azerbaydzhar, `ASR, indicating the excess of demand over supply.
Although promises of better quality are made continuously, it seems
likely that the Soviet consumers will be far from satisfied in the fore-
seeable future.
In addition, even assuming that production in 1965 meets Kosygin's
expectations, it will mean only one new refrigerator for every 127
people in the USSR, where existing stocks in 1963 were at most 20
refrigerators for every 1, 000 people. In the US in 1963 the volume of
retail sales was about 1 refrigerator for every 46 people, in a situation
C-O=N-F-I-D-E-N- T-I-A-L
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where all but a very few households (1. 2 percent) already had refrig-
erators, 8/ and where there were about 300 refrigerators for every
1, 000 people. Furthermore, Soviet refrigerators are more expensive
per unit of capacity than US refrigerators and are relatively more
expensive compared with similar US models than are any other major
consumer durables except washing machines. 9/
C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
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1. Pravda, 10 Dec 64. U.
Household Appliances in the USSR
2. CIA. CIA/RR ER 62-Z, 65, Jan 62. C.
During the Seven Year Plan, 1959?
3. Sovetskaya Kirgiziya, 26 Aug 64. U.
4. Pravda, 7 Jun 64. U.
5. CIA. CIA/RR CB 64-64, Moscow Takes New Administrative
64.
31 Ma61. Program) U.
Step to Ieta, Consumer
6. EkonomicheskaYa ga 9 U.
7. JPRS. 27, 690, p
g. Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Statist19~4A P t 7 57 ofUhe
United States, 1964, Washington, C.
CI CIA/RR ER 64-1, A Comparison of Consumption in the
9?
USSR and the US, Jan 64, p? 47. U.
Analyst:
Coord:
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Boast Pbumdt for Soyitt PrOAMIfon rf Rtfrtg.T*tOX` IMMAET
196S tCONFWENTIAL)
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SUBJECT : Transmittal of Material
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Report Series CIA/RR CB 65-6
Title Big Boast Planned for Soviet Production of Refrigerators --- January
1965 tCONFIDENTIAL)
Responsible Analyst and Branch
MS / M
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