AGENDA FOR POSSIBLE SUBSTANTIVE BRIEFINGS OF PRESIDENT-ELECT AND STAFF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00493R000100100009-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 9
• Content Type: AG

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Agenda for Possible Substantive Brieings of President-Elect and Staff
(Not necessarily in priority order of importance or expectation)
I. Potential Crises before 1 February
Major
1. Soviet intervention in Poland (and possible pressure on Berlin).
2. A major OPEC price increase.
3. Trial of hostages, or, conversely, crisis with Saudis, etc., if
US strikes a deal.
4. Coup in Nicaragua and possible Cuban military intervention.
5. Expansion of Iran-Iraq war, and other permutations including US
split with European Allies, cut-off of Gulf oil flow, Soviet
assistance to or intervention in Iran, fall of Saddam Hussein,
hard winter/economic misery in Iran.
6. Annexation of Golan Heights by Israel.
7. Collapse of East-West dialogue: CSCE, TNF, etc.
8. Potential Chinese pressures on US re Taiwan.
9. Soviet actions ending observance of SALT I and SALT II
provisions.
B. Minor
1. Rightist coup in El Salvador.
2. Soviet pressure on Pakistan.
3. Vietnamese incursion into Thailand.
4. Escalation on Chinese-Vietnamese border.
5. Escalation between Ethiopia and Somalia.
6. Civil war in Uganda involving other African or extracontinental
states.
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0. Can Canada hold together?
P. Will Cuba challenge US interests in Latin America?
Q. Will Afghan insurgency and Soviet military involvement there
continue at high levels?
R. Will US lose bases in Greece if Papandreou is elected in spring
or fall?
S. Will Libya, Iran, Iraq, PLO increasingly resort to international
terrorism?
T. Will grain crop shortfalls disrupt international markets?
U. Will poor debt rescheduling or defaults by key LDCs (Brazil)
destabilize international financial picture?
V. Will there be renewed surges of Indochinese, Caribbean refugees
clamoring for US help?
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7. Civil war in Zimbabwe.
8. Execution of Kim Dae Jung.
9. Tension in South Lebanon.
10. Libya threatens shootdown of US military aircraft.
11. IEA oil sharing triggered.
12. Soviet offer to renew grain LTA.
II. Major Challenges of 1981
A. Can European defense commitment be maintained?
B. What will be Soviet positions on SALT II and other aspects of detente?
Will Soviets accelerate arms buildup?
C. What are the potentials for (and in) a major change in Soviet leader-
ship?
D. How can integrity of Iran (and hostages retrieved) be maintained?
E. Can (and should) Camp David process be maintained? What will Soviets
do to intrude themselves into the ME peace process? What happens if
Begin dies?
F. What is Sadat's lasting power? Assad's? Qadhafi's?
G. Is there a possibility for Chinese-Soviet rapprochement?
H. Can a settlement of Kampuchean impasse be achieved?
I. Will Marcos survive? Suharto?
J. Can Chun Doo-Hwan hack it?
K. What are the prospects for US-Saudi relations
L. What is the future of Poland? Will the "Polish disease" spread in
Eastern Europe?
M. What will be Soviet military and R&D thrust in a non-SALT world?
N. What will be the consequences of a perceived change in US policy
-toward South Africa (e.g., cut-off of Nigerian oil)?
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14 III. Likely Policy Review Topics that Will Require IntVAVI
elligence Input
A. SALT
B. If hostages are still held, policy toward Iran (Military action?)
C. Policy toward China and Taiwan
D. Nuclear Proliferation
E. Human Rights
F. TNF and MBFR negotiations
G. Policy toward conservative Latin American governments
H. Israel, the Palestinians, and the Middle East peace process
I. Japanese defense policy
J. Policy toward South Africa
K. US posture in the Gulf vis-a-vis Soviets (and Saudis)
L. World energy situation
M. US forces in South Korea
N. Economic relations with the OECD
0. Division of labor with NATO
P. Policy toward Third World requests for US economic aid (Jamaica,
sub-Saharan Africa, etc; and at North-South summit in Mexico
City, Apr or May 81)
US military aid to Pakistan, Thailand
Policy re CTB, Threshold Test Ban, Teaceful Nuclear Explosion
Treaties
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