1000 THURSDAY 9 AUGUST MEETING WITH NIOS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002400080034-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 5, 2004
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: August 8, 1979
• Content Type: NOTES

ApproyM~ 1~
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o ie .sed2Upon emova f Tof A
8 August 1979
SUBJECT: 1000 Thursg1ayi 79;,'August Meeting with NIOs
1. Subject meeting will be the first of two to review their production
forecast.
2. Those attending will include:
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3. Provided in the folder are:
a. A summary chart of this group's production forecast.
b. A more detailed listing of forecast.
c. Senior Review Panel comments on Production Forecast.
25X1 A plus : Acting D/OPA
Rae Huffstutler, D/OSR
Ev Hineman, D/OWI
Senior Review Panel
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NI0/USSR
p/SS
NIO/CH
P/ CF
NIO/SP
WE
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Part One
NIE/IIM Production Forecast
--by NIO--
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 SECRET
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NIO for Strategic Programs
NIE/IIPM1.Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
.4.
.1. NIE 11-1-79: Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities in SFce
r
Estimated completion date: September 1979
2. NIE 11-3/8-79: Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict
Through the 1980s
Estimated completion date: November 1979
3. NIE 11-12-79: Prospects for Soviet Military Technology and R&D
Estimated Completion date: November 1979
4. IIM: Memorandum to Holders: Soviet Civil Defense: Objectives,
Pace and Effectiveness
Estimated completion date: First Ouarter 1980
August 1979
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NI0 for Conventional Forces
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
25X6 1. I IM:
Estimated completion date: July 1979
25X6 2. IIM
L-F
Estimated completion date: August 1979
3. IIM:
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Estimated completion date: October 1979
25X6 4. IIM:
Estimated completion date: October 1979
5. IIM: Soviet Naval Readiness
Estimated completion date: November 1.979/
6. IIM: Soviet Naval Ca ability for Interdiction of Sealines of
Communication (SLOC)
Estimated completion date: First Quarter 1980
7. NIE: China's Defense Policy and Armed Forces
Estimated completion date: First Quarter 1980
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August 1979
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1110 for USSR-EE
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
1. NIE 15-79: Prospects for Post-Tito Yugoslavia
Estimated completion date:
p
Relationshi
IIM: The Soviet-Cuban Military Relationshi
Estimated completion date: August 1979
NIE 11/13-1-79: The Outlook for Sino-Soviet Relations
Estimated completion date: December 1979
IIM: Implications of the Soviet Economic Bind
Estimated completion date: Second Quarter 1980
General concept:
Examines the accumulating evidence of growing
economic difficulties in the USSR and the signs
of Soviet efforts to grapple politically with
with the difficult choices they face. Gives
particular emphasis to trade-offs between:
domestic priorities--political, economic, and
military--and foreign policy aims..
August 1979
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August 1979
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NIO for China
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
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1. NIE 11/12-1-79: The Outlook for*Sino-Soviet'Relations
Estimated completion date: December'1979
2.1
August 1979
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 SECRIET
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NIO for Special Studies
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
1. SNIE 6-79: Potential Use by Terrorists of Chemical or
Biological Weapons
Estimated completion date: October 1979
General concept: Assesses the likelihood of terrorist acquisition/
exploitation of biological or chemical weapons.
Explores factors which would encourage or inhibit
terrorist groups bent on obtaining and using such
weapons.
August 1979
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THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
SUBJECT: NIE/IIM Production Forecast
1. I forward the final statement of the
NIE/IIM Production Forecast for July 1979-
June 1980 for your information in connection
with the NIO meeting tomorrow.
2. This final statement reflects
comments made by INR, DIA and the Senior
Review Panel.
3. Most of the suggestions of INR and
DIA have been taken into account in this
final statement, and I am not bothering to
send you the memoranda received from Bowdler
and Tighe. The comments of the Senior Review
Panel were also discussed and, where appro-
priate, incorporated into the final statement.
I thought, however, you might like to see the
Senior Review Panel memorandum and a copy is
attached.
4. By the way, I should point out that
both Tighe and Bowdler were very supportive
of the production plans mentioned in the fore-
cast and indicated that they would support
those plans "to the greatest extent possible."
STAT
Robert R. Bowie
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Memorandum for Dr. Bowie
NFAC 4056-79
1 August 1979
Subject: Senior Review Panel Comments on NIE/IIM Production
Forecast, July 1979-June 1980 (draft, dated 6 July
1979, NFAC 3548-79)
1. The Panel understands that you wish the Production
Board in its 2 August meeting to examine the proposed NFAC
production forecast as a whole, and to consider whether it
is sufficiently comprehensive, adequately targeted on matters
of probable major concern to policymakers over the next 12.
months, and reasonably well balanced as between priority
requirements and available resources.
2. The suggestions which follow reflect the Panel's
consideration of these questions. We appreciate the work,
careful attention, and coordination which have gone into the
compilation of the present list. At the same time, we have
in mind that the 2 August meeting is the first opportunity
the entire Board will have had to examine the forecast as a
whole. We believe there are some important subjects which
may qualify as supplements/replacements for inclusion in
production planning, now or in the earliest next round.
3. Integrative Estimates
We are struck by the virtual absence of i-_`--~, D-__wp-rk
in international economs. We consider this a programmatic
wea Hess `Z.c sold be remedied. Within the next 12 months,
we recommend:
a. A forward-looking estimate of likely trends
in the international economic (and financial) positions
international is ri u ion ot econom c assets and
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Subject: Senior Review Panel Comments on NIE/IIM Production
Forecast, July 1979-June 1980 (draft, dated 6 July
1979, NFAC 3548-79)
liabilities--which has been changing dramatically
and is likely to change further--will seriously
affect the relative capacity of countries, and groups
of countries, to wield foreign political (and even
military) influence and to resist pressures exerted
by others. It would seem that such a paper could be
very helpful to policymakers, that the Intelligence
Community has a variety of assets on which such-an
estimate could draw, and that there would be much
value in having a coordinated Community view on this
important subject.
b. An NIE on rld enemy problems structured
to estimate the likely political and- economic ef~ects
of the changing energy situations of the major state
actors. (We appreciate the preeminence of OER in the
field, and particularly in the oil problem. But there
are some grounds to believe that NFAC's assessments
may'not be wholly agreed by State, and possibly
Treasury and Energy. To the extent the latter are
in error, it might be useful to try for a Community
consensus.)
c. An NIE on Pacific Interdependence ) as proposed
by NI0/EAP on 9 July C 3 7 ,
d. Nuclear Proliferation. We regret the decision
not.to proceed now with an est mate on nuclear prolifera-
tion issues on a basis broader than separate examinations
of local situations. We think this project should be
kept under review and activated, as soon as circumstances
permi,tL, and certainly when the individual country studies
are completed.)
4. National Interests
We suggest that, if NFAC production planning be examined
in the light of probable engagements of US national. interest
over the next twelve months--or of situations which may create
special foreign affairs problems for the US, a number of other
subjects might deserve consideration. As examples:
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Subject: Senior Review Panel Comments on NIE/IIM Production
Forecast, July 1979-June 1980 (draft, dated .6 July
1979, NFAC 3548-79)
a. Arab East. A SNIE, or IIM, on the overall
Political-economic-security situation in and prospects
for the Sudan-Ethiopia-Somalia-Djibouti.;Southern Arabian
Peninsula-Persian Gulf area strikes us as a priority
ion period.
is very
related to the overall Mi e East- estern Indian Ocean
problem. As a resource tradeoff, the IIM on Mozambique
(which State questions) could be slipped into the next
production year. (Since this area involves two NIOs,
responsibility should be assigned specifically to one--
Africa or NESA.)
b. Implementation-of Panama Canal Treaty. Before
mid-1980, a SNIE, or IIM, on this su ject might be very
timely. Unfavorable events and trends in the Caribbean
Basin, to include Central America, could make the Panama
Canal matter become even more sensitive an issue.
c. Political and Economic Trends in the Communist
Countries of Eastern Europe. (Other than Yugoslavia)
An examination o their potential for affecting the
stability of current governments and the interests of V
the Soviet Union would seem particularly timely.
d. Soviet 0 tions in Afghanistan. (Our memo to
you-of 25 Ju y 97 , NFAC 3893-79.)
e. China. By the end of the production period,
June 1980, a year and a half will have elapsed since
the normalization of US-China relations. Intial impulses
will have run their course, and prospects for the 1onge
term will have importance. We should think that an NIE,
or at least an IIM, on Prospects for China, would have
much interest for policymakers w t in t s time frame.
f. Soviet Intervention Capabilities. We shall
likely wit in the next 1 months have further exposure
to this subject. The capacity and intentions of the
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Subject: Senior Review Panel Comments on NIE/IIM Production
Forecast, July 1979-June 1980 (draft, dated 6 July
1979, NFAC 3548-79)
Soviet Union and its allies to intervene in local
civil strife as a result of their recent experiences
with such action would provide a useful framework for
assessing future applications.
5. NIT/PIWG Convergence
We think worth flagging to your attention that present
NFAC production planning for the next 12 months:
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period, but those which are deferred should perhap
s be scheduled
now for the next cycle, and preliminary work be gotten under way
well in advance.
Proba y not all of these can be undertaken in an 12- th
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NIO/Africa
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NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
1. IIM: New Realities in the Middle East
Estimated completion date: August 1979
General concept: Assesses the impact of the peace process, Iran,
and new political alignments on the Arab world.
There has been a period of profound change in
the Middle East. This paper will attempt to
identify regional developments and trends.
Estimated completion date: September 1979
August 1979
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NIU for Near East and South Asia
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NIO/NESA; Production Forecast Through June 1980, continued
5. IIM: Iran: Democracy, Theocracy, or Chaos
Estimated completion date: First Quarter 1980
General concept: How Khomeini handles the promulgation of the new
constitution (referendum or fiat) will likely
determine how the disparate political ground in
Iran line up. If Khomeini tries to shove the
constitution through, this will strengthen the
left and lead closer to the day of a right-left
showdown. A referendum that brings in the talented
middle class on his side could cause the left to
change tactics and go underground. The IIM will
assess the parties' roles and options.
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NIO for Africa
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
14 IIM-South Africa: Strategic Defenses Against a Hostile World
Estimated completion date: October 1979
2.. IIM: Sudan
Estimated completion date: First Quarter 1980
General concept: Assesses the staying power of the current regime
and would examine alternatives to Numayri should
he be overthrown. Examines particular political,
economic, and security problems*(e.g., the Sudan
Communist Party, southern dissidents),.and possibly
regional phenomena which impact on Sudan.
3.
IIM: Nigeria
Estimated completion date: First Quarter 1980
General concept: Examines the new civilian regime's progress in
governing the country and assesses the direction
of its economic (especially oil) and foreign
policies (including relations with the United
States). The details of its domestic priorities,
the state of the civilian opposition, and situation
in the military establishment are also discussed.
August 1979
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NIO/Af, P'roduction Forecast Through June 1980, continued
IIM: Mozambique
Estimated completion date: Second Quarter 1980
General concept: An in-depth look at how Mozambique has evolved
since independence and what could be expected in
the future. In particular, the evolution and
adaptation of. the country's political, military,
and economic institutions are considered. The
impact of these on its regional and foreign
policies are also examined, and any trends
identified.
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da. IIM: Zimbabwe-Rhodesia
Estimated completion date: Second Quarter 1980
General concept: Examines the Rhodesian situation through 1981
in the light of present expectations.
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NIO for East Asia and the Pacific
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
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August 1979
3. NIE: Indications and Warning on North Korea
Estimated completion date: December 1979
General concept: Reviews specific steps North Korea could take
in launching an attack against South Korea and
assesses US ability to detect such steps, including
current and future warning systems and the con-
tribution to warning capability provided by US
forces in Korea.
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NI0/EAP, Production Forecast Through June 1980, continued
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4.1 NIE: Prospects for Internal Stability in Indonesia
Estimated completion date: First Quarter 1980
5. j
6.
IIM: Prospects for Internal Stability in the Philippines
Estimated completion date: Second Quarter, 1980
General concept: The US has military bases in the Philippines as
well as a substantial economic stake. The response
of most people in the Philippines to the imposition
of martial law by President Marcos has changed
perceptibly in the last two years. Corruption
in high places, the arrogance and influence
of the military, the seemingly endless rebellion
in the Muslim south, and potentially severe economic
problems raise questions about the prospects for
political change.
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NIO for Latin America
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
1. IIM: Political Trends in the Caribbean
Estimated completion date: October 1979
General concept: Analyzes political trends in 26 countries and island
groupings of the Caribbean, focusing on developments
that are encouraging the growth of Cuban and Soviet
influence. Assesses the impact of declining economies,
increasing middle-class emigration, growing youth
majorities, and eroding democratic traditions.
Discusses the divergence of foreign policy
orientations in the Caribbean and examines Cuban
and Soviet strategies in the region.
2.1 NIE 91-79: Argentine Political Evolution Over the Next Two to
Five Years
Estimated completion date: First Quarter 1980
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NIO for Nuclear Proliferation
NIE/IIM Production Forecast--July 1979-June 1980
IIM: Iraq's Nuclear Interests, Programs and Options
Estimated completion date: August 1979
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August 1979
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