MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. PETER JESSUP FROM WALTER ELDER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000400160030-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2003
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: August 1, 1964
• Content Type: MF

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6 August 19o4
,1EMORANDUM 10K
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Mr. Bromley Smith f'
Per your request, this is for
your historical files.
-? alter Elder
Executive Assistant
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"rust 1964
MEMORANDUM FOR THE URECTOR
SUBJECT: Probable North Vietnamese and C"Ohin.ses t; Oiunis
Reactions to Certain US Reprisals Against North Vietnatrt
1. The
proposed US reprisals would evoke sharp i* V Military
e estimate below, but we do not consider that such
enemy actions would represent a deliberate decision to provoke or
accept a major escalation of the Vietnam war. Tree attacks on the
U. S. S. Maddox were almost certainly prompted primarily by
considerations of defense and honor, growing out of what ice. V authorities
evidently believed was a US or U'S-sponsored attack against North
Vietnamese territory. Also present, however, are probably these
Ives: (a) to signal to the US that the DR V is prepared to tr:.atcs US
determination and is not about to accede to earlier US entreaties to
reduce the war effort against South Vietnam: and (b) to show the
that any raising of the ante on its side will involve the U in major
hostilities in the area.
Z. Enemy Reactions.
a. Military Reactions. We believe that probable reactions
s frame include:
(1) Introduction of combat airs
"'JIG i7's snt IL. Ld's
into North Vietnam, with Vietnamese pilots or psss DLy Chinese
pilots as "volunteers. "
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Unconcealed (possibly announced) deployment
and maneuvering of Chinese Communist ground and air
forces in China's
ern border regions.
A further step-up of VC action in South Vietnam
accompanied by a terror campaign against American personnel.
(4) Communist aircraft will possibly attack the
US destroyers and may also bomb Saigon.
We believe it unlikely that the Communists would
? rch across the 17th parallel or introduce major Chinese
ound forces into Indochina at this state.
b. Political
The main thrust of the communist response will
probably be in the fields of propaganda, political action and
diplomatic maneuvering.
. Hanoi -- and Peiping -- will probably endeavor to be as
menacing as possible and make it appear that the whole Indochina area
is rapidly approaching the brink of all out war. The principal object
of such maneuvering, however, will be the political one of raising the
international temperature and heightening world pressure for a conference,.
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cc forwarded to Mr. Bromley Smith
per Elder - 8/6/64
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