CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00927A000300110001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 9, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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CONFIDENTIAL OCI NO-8125
9 July 1954
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
WEEKLY
AUTV 7
DAT
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
~ET
s'0 r
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CONFIDENTIAL-
State Dept. review completed
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THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT-
ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES
WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS,
TITLE 18, USC, SECTIONS 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMIS-
SION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO
AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.
The Current Intelligence Weekly has been prepared prima-
rily for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency.
It does not represent a complete coverage of all current
situations. Comments and conclusions represent the im-
mediate appraisal of the Office of Current Intelligence.
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THE SOVIET WORLD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4
FRENCH-VIETNAMESE RELATIONS NEAR BREAKING POINT OVER
TONKIN WITHDRAWAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 6
The circumstances of the, French withdrawal from the
southern Tonkin delta have imposed such a strain on
French-Vietnamese relations that a total collapse of the
French Union system in Vietnam in the near future is not
impossible.
LATIN AMERICAN REACTIONS TO THE GUATEMALAN CRISIS . . . Page 8
The Castillo Armas revolution in Guatemala has been
almost unanimously attributed by the rest of Latin America
to"the intervention of Washington acting through the govern-
ments of Honduras and Nicaragua. Some governments have
voiced approval, but "anti-intervention" demonstrations
and editorials have been widespread and in some cases
violent.
SATELLITE PRODUCTION FAILURES LEAD TO "STRETCH-OUT"
OF NEW -COURSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Page 10
Following a year of general failure in the Eastern
European Satellites to meet the initial production goals
of the economic "new course," the duration of the program
has been extended and prospects for success are improved.
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE TOP SOVIET LEADERSHIP . . . . . Page 13
The rapid growth of Khrushchev's prestige and in-
.fluence during the past year, and especially since April,
suggests-that, unless some strong opposing trend develops,
he will soon become the dominant figure in the USSR. Some
signs of such a trend may be appearing, however, and the
leadership situation is still in flux.
9 July 54
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THE NEW STATURE OF MAO TSE-TUNG Page 15
Mao Tse-tung has apparently succeeded in obtaining
from Stalin's heirs a role in the determination of de-
velopments in the Far East commensurate with his position
as the most eminent living Communist leader and Asian
revolutionary theorist.
SPECIAL ARTICLE. CURRENT WESTERN EUROPEAN ATTITUDES
TOWARD AM= POLICIES AND THE COLD WAR . . . . . Page 17
Since the Berlin conference, the governments of
Western Europe have taken positions increasingly in dis-
agreement with those of the United States. Popular
criticism of American inflexibility and impetuosity has
also increased and is now widespread. This trend is
partly a reflection of lessened dependence on American
aid. Primarily, however, it stems from a reassessment
of the Soviet threat and the belief that Washington has
failed to adjust its policies accordingly.
9 July 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
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THE SOVIET WORLD
The Soviet-Iranian financial and border negotiations
which began a year ago now appear to be approaching a settle-
ment. It seems likely that the USSR will release some
$21,000,000 in gold and credits held in Moscow and will make
minor territorial concessions to Iran along the Azerbaijan
frontier in return for a salient north of Firezeh east of
the Caspian.
A conciliatory attitude on the part of the Kremlin has
been evident in its recent relations with Tehran. The two
countries signed the 1954 barter agreement on 17 June, pro-
viding for the first time for substantial Soviet exports of
trucks and spare parts and for larger exports of machinery
and automobiles. Talks are also being held in preparation
for Iranian purchase of the long-inactive Iranian-Soviet Oil
Company installations. Last week end the Soviet Union was
scheduled to return 300 Iranian political prisoners, freed
under the Soviet amnesty decree.
It is still possible that the Soviet Union will attach
unacceptable political conditions to its agreement--such
for example as ousting American military and technical per-
sonnel from Iran. The release of the gold and credits without
such conditions would probably reflect a major upward revision
by the Kremlin of its appraisal of Western influence in the
area. It might also foreshadow offers of economic and techni-
cal assistance similar to those Moscow recently offered to
Afghanistan.
A full-dress treatment by Pravda on 3 July of the Churchill-
Eisenhower talks repeated the s awn and Soviet positions on major
world problems. The tone of the Pravda editorial was one of
disappointment and irritation wit reat Britain for making con-
cessions under American pressure, but the editorial claimed that
many American-British differences were left unresolved. Pravda
warned Great Britain and "other capitalist countries" of possible
catastrophic consequences of embarging on a course of concession
to "aggressive American forces," and implied that France is an
innocent victim of Anglo-American exlusivism. Ambassador Bohlen
notes that the reprinting of the editorial in Izvestia and other
Moscow newspapers the following day is unusual and, emphasizes its
importance in Soviet eyes.
9 July 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
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Moscow's initial propaganda on the new Guatemalan govern-
ment claimed that Ambassador Peurifoy had maneuvered a "well-
prepared suppression of a national liberation movement." In
view of current emphasis on nationalism, international Com-
munist propagandists probably consider it most profitable to
depict the revolution as the first suppression of a "national
liberation movement" in Latin America.
While the official Soviet announcement of the opening
of an atomic electric power station on 27 June was brief and
factual, subsequent Orbit propaganda has emphasized that this
is the first atomic-operated power plant in the world. The
timing of the announcement may reflect the Kremlin's reaction
to what the USSR considers an American intention to move ahead
with the "Atomic Pool" without Soviet co-operation.
At the same time, it gives momentum to the Communist propa-
g.nda campaign, apparent since mid-March, which has sought to
impress the world with Soviet atomic capabilities but simultane-
ously to contrast the USSR's alleged peaceful intentions with
the irresponsibility of thosewho would base foreign policy on
the use of atomic weapons.
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FRENCH-VIETNAMESE RELATIONS NEAR BREAKING
POINT OVER TONKIN WITHDRAWAL
The circumstances under which the French military
authorities have carried out the withdrawal of their forces
from the southern sector of the Tonkin delta have imposed
such a strain on French-Vietnamese relations that the total
collapse of the French Union system in Vietnam in the near
future is not impossible. The American embassy in Saigon
reports increasingly overt hatred among Vietnamese toward
occidentals in general and the French in particular.
Vietnamese leaders contend that the withdrawal is unjusti-
fied, that it was carried out in a unilateral fashion which
precluded the taking of appropriate emergency measures on the
part of the Vietnamese civil authorities, and that it was in
violation of specific pledges given to the Vietnamese. The
most damaging charge against the French is that the withdrawal
was made pursuant to a secret French understanding with the
Viet Minh. Although certain circumstantial evidence tends to
support this contention, the French authorities emphatically
deny the existence of such an agreement.
Vietnamese officials also note that weapons-which the
French have repeatedly promised for the arming of a militia
in Tonkin have been withheld for so long that the French can
now argue that it would no longer be safe to arm the militia.
Vietnamese anger at this French "betrayal" is particularly
evident among leaders of the predominantly Catholic population
of southern Tonkin, where some 7,000,000 persons are now sub-
ject to a virtually unopposed occupation by the Viet Minh.
Ngo Dinh Diem, the premier-designate and the most prominent
Catholic layman in Vietnam, vigorously sought, and at one time
believed he had obtained, a French pledge to defend this area.
The highest. French officials in Indochina have engaged in
several long and stormy sessions with Diem, attempting to per-
suade him of the military necessity for the withdrawal. The
request by the chief French civil official that the American
embassy exert a "steadying influence" on Diem indicates these
efforts have not been entirely successful.
Diem has threatened to declare
Vietnam's independence outside the French Union if further
withdrawals from delta areas are not stopped.
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Despite the wrangling and rivalry so prevalent among
Vietnamese politicians, there is virtually unanimous agreement
that partition of the country is no solution. Leaders who are
close to Ngo Dinh Diem are said to be arguing that since the
French are apparently bent on selling Vietnam out to the
Communists, the best move for the Vietnamese authorities is to
seek direct contact with the Viet Minh. There is little ques-
tion that Vietnamese in general believe the prospects of under-
cutting Viet Minh strength through political struggle within a
unified Vietnam--however slight--are nevertheless better than
the prospects of achieving the same result through a military
showdown with the Viet Minh, once the latter have occupied all
of Tonkin.
Although Vietnamese anger toward the French has found no
expression thus far except in utterances of helpless and bitter
frustration and desperate pleas that the United States supplant
France, the possibility of more direct action is growing. I
The bishop o Bui u told the American consul in
Hanoi that Vietnamese troops in southern Tonkin had branded as
traitors Vietnamese officers who transmitted French withdrawal
orders, and there was talk of a "coup d'etat" in the area.
Many Vietnamese troops have refused to leave southern
Tonkin. Vietnamese officials justify this refusal on the
grounds that the French have deserted the Vietnamese, rather
than the reverse. The problem of discipline among native
troops will become still more acute in the event of a French
withdrawal from all of Tonkin. More than a quarter of the
French regular army troops in Indochina are Vietnamese, a
fact which might, with worsening French-Vietnamese relations,
gravely imperil the security of French troops.
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The Castillo Armas revolution in Guatemala has been
almost unanimously attributed by the rest of Latin America
to the intervention of Washington acting through the govern-
ments of Honduras and Nicaragua. Some governments have
voiced approval, but "anti-intervention" demonstrations and
editorials have been widespread and in some cases violent.
Many government officials have hinted that Washington either
suffers from excessive anti-Communist zeal or is unduly in-
fluenced by the interests of the United Fruit Company.
During the early days of the crisis, many governments
appeared stunned by Guatemala's by-passing of the Organization
of American States in favor of working with the Soviet Union
in the United Nations. Most of them expressed fear that the
future of inter-American regional machinery was in grave
danger, and 14 of them agreed to back a call for an OAS
meeting based on Washington's draft resolution setting up
measures to combat the Guatemalan threat. Only eight had
previously agreed to accept the resolution.
After the initial shock of the UN appeal wore off,
however, a number of governments took the attitude that it
would be impossible to discuss charges against Guatemala with-
out discussing Guatemala's own complaints. A 28 June Uru-
guayan proposal to alter the conference agenda to this effect
was voted down in the OAS Council but received the support of
Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico. The last three of these
countries have also rejected Washington's request that they
refuse political asylum to Arbenz followers.
Most of the attacks on the United States have stemmed from
the belief that Washington intervened in the affairs of another
country. Many of the anti-interventionist demonstrations--
which took on major proportions in Argentina, Mexico, Chile,
Uruguay, Honduras and Panama--were touched off by pro-Communist
student and labor groups but were joined by large numbers of
non-Communists. In Argentina, the Senate passed a resolution
reaffirming the principles of self-determination and political
and economic independence as standards for the hemisphere. The
major Argentine labor federation issued a declaration that
"every nation has the right to solve its own problems without
outside interference." The Chilean lower house refused per-
mission for the foreign minister to attend the OAS meeting
scheduled to discuss only Washington's case against the Arbenz
regime.
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In Mexico, students laid a black-draped wreath at the
door of the American embassy "in memory of the good neighbor
policy." In Uruguay,. and elsewhere, normally pro-American papers
accused the United States of acting "hastily" and "without
regard for juridical order."
In only six countries--Cuba, the Dominican Republic,
Costa Rica, Bolivia, Paraguay and Peru--has the press been
relatively free from criticism of American "intervention."
Except in these countries and possibly Colombia, that portion
of the press which tended to ignore the issue of Washington's
"intervention" and to explain the nature of international
Communism has been all but drowned out. In Brazil, for ex-
ample, where the government has been attempting to reconcile
diplomatic differences between the United States and Latin
America, almost the entire noncontrolled. press and radio'has
expressed suspicion of American motives,
The Guatemalan crisis has also given rise to fears
wider than those of American "intervention" and "dollar
diplomacy." Ecuadoran president Velasco reportedly fears
the Guatemalan. crisis sets a precedent for Peruvian invasion
of Ecuador and in a 2 July speech called for reaffirmation
of the "juridical" principles which protect weak nations.
Meanwhile, another sort of criticism of the United States
has been voiced by officials in the Dominican Republic,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. These officials have accused Wash-
ington of "poor timing" and of giving the insurgents too little
aid to ensure success. The Panamanian foreign minister, on the
other hand, said on 23 June he believed the United States' po-
sition was fully defensible but that it had been presented
badly.
A number of governments have been disturbed by the in-
tensity of popular reaction, and it is believed that the Ar-
gentine government has warned the press against further attacks.
Bolivia is thought to have censored all press comment from the
beginning.
The major points of irritation may be somewhat smoothed
by the indefinite postponement of the OAS meeting on 2 July and
by the filing of antitrust proceedings against the United Fruit
Company on the same day; no specific reaction to these moves
has yet been noted, however.
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SATELLITE PRODUCTION FAILURES LEAD
TO "STRETCH-OUT".OF NEW COURSE*
Following a year of general failure in the Eastern European
Satellites to meet the initial production goals of the economic
"new course," the duration of the program has been extended
beyond the initial two-year period and prospects for ultimate
success are thereby improved. Plans for the next several years
call for increased allocations of labor and materials to the
critical sectors of the Satellite economies and for further
integration of the bloc countries in order to promote more
efficient use of resources (see chart, p. 12).
Originally the regimes changed from a policy of coercion
to one of the increased use of incentives to bring about satis-
factory progress while the shift in investments from heavy
industry to consumer goods industries was being effected. This
shift in emphasis has, however, resulted chiefly in expectations
of further concessions, especially among the peasants, rather
than in the increased supply of foodstuffs and consumer goods
which the Satellite leaders apparently hoped for when they out-
lined the aims of the new course in 195,3.
The downward revision of 1953 industrial goals permitted
some reallocation of resources, and hence some increases in pro-
duction of manufactured consumer goods, although less than
planned.
On the other side of the ledger, unfavorable weather
damaged winter crops and delayed spring plowing and sowing, making
it unlikely that 1954 crops will be better than the inadequate
level of 1953.
Satellite plans for meeting new course goals in 1954 in-
clude the sacrifice of immediate military expansion. Satellite
budgets reveal that direct military expenditures are to level
off in 1954 in contrast to the steady, substantial increases of
earlier years. Such allocations this year range from a small
increase in Czechoslovakia to a 37-percent decrease in Rumania,
with most of the countries allocating about the same amounts
to the military as in 1953, or slightly less. While some appro-
priations for defense are normally budgeted under the heading
of "financing the national economy," increases in this cate-
gory are. generally smaller than in previous years, and they
contain larger outlays for investments in agriculture, consumer
goods industries and the fuel and power sectors. Thus, it is
*Co-ordinated with the Office of Research and Reports.
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unlikely that increased defense appropriations are hidden in
this part of the budgets.
Even with the apparent decline in military allocations
and in the rate of increase of heavy industrial production,
most of the Satellites have had difficulties in fulfilling
their industrial plans so far in 1954. Poland was the only
country announcing fulfillment of its first quarter plan.
East Germany and Hungary met their first quarter plans by 97
percent and 98.4 percent respectively. The remaining Satellites
did not announce their first quarter plan results, an unusual
omission which in itself carries an implication of unsatisfactory
progress.
Rumania appears to be experiencing the most serious dif-
ficulties, for industrial production in the last quarter of
1953 was below the level of the previous year and apparently
no significant improvement has occurred. In addition, there
has been no price cut on consumer goods in Rumania, which,
taken with the wage and salary cuts imposed early this year,
indicates a definite lack of progress in meeting new plan targets.
Soviet and Satellite economic plans are to be integrated
more closely during the 1956-60 five-year plan period in order
to derive greater benefits from regional division of labor. The
Council of Mutual Economic Assistance is taking a more open and
apparently more active role in planning bloc economic affairs,
and the Yugoslav ambassador to the USSR told the American embassy
he had heard from several sources that at the March meeting of
the council the possibility of establishing bloc steel and oil
pools along the lines of the Schuman plan was discussed.
While the Satellites have fallen short of their goals so
far,. the increased investments now taking place in the critical
agricultural, consumer goods, and fuel and power sectors should
permit greater opportunity for success in the future, provided
the investments continue for a sufficient period of time.
Speakers at the recent East German and Hungarian party congresses
stated that the raising of agricultural and consumer goods pro-
duction and the elimination of fuel and power shortages would
be the primary tasks during the period 1956-60, and Czechoslovakia
has announced an agricultural program extending through 1957
which requires large-scale allocations of resources.
If such long-range programs as those outlined in the
three countries listed above are followed generally in the
Satellites, as appears likely, the imbalance of their economies
caused by a too rapid industrialization program should be sub-
stantially corrected by the end of their second five-year plans
in 1960.
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THE SATELLITES
OFFICIAL RATES OF INDUSTRIAL GROWTH
0
figures for East Germany and Albania not announced
INDEX OF DIRECT BUDGETED MILITARY APPROPRIATIONS
(1951 EQUALS 100)
I
I
POLAND
CZECHOSLOVAKIA HUNGARY
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1953
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DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE TOP SOVIET LEADERSHIP.
Developments during the past year, and especially since
April, suggest that the principle of collective leadership at
the summit of the Soviet hierarchy is being challenged by Party
Secretary Khrushchev or a group associated with him. The rapid
growth of Khrushchev's prestige and influence suggests that,
unless some strong opposing trend develops (the first signs of
.which may already be appearing), he will soon become the dominant
figure in the USSR. While there has been no suggestion that
Khrushchev disagrees with present Soviet policies, his public
speeches have been somewhat harsher in tone than those of Malenkov,
especially on foreign policy,
The group leadership which has characterized Soviet politics
since Stalin's death apparently arose from the lack of any over-
whelmingly strong individual heir to the dictator's mantle and
from fear among the leaders of the consequences of a one-man rule
of the Stalinist type. Realizing that supremacy for any one of
their number would soon lead to the liquidation of the rest as
potential rivals, the members of the ruling group presumably deter-
mined to prevent the assumption of Stalin's power by any individ-
ual.. The public prestige which Party Secretary Khrushchev has
attained in recent months appears to threaten the collective leader-
ship and Malenkov's position as first among equals within it.
From April through mid-June Khrushchev was receiving more per-
sonal publicity than any other Soviet leader since Stalin. He
has spoken authoritatively on an increasing number of aspects of
domestic and international policy, and he has been active in all
fields of Soviet life. Several of his former associates have been
elevated to high posts in the USSR, and the Ukraine, where he was
party boss from 1938 to 1949, has been accorded prestige second
only to that of the Great Russian republic.
Khrushchev has shown signs of competing with rather than sup-
porting the premier. He has failed to give Malenkov any credit
for the development of the new agricultural program first out-
lined in Malenkov's August speech; he attended the Leningrad
party plenum which, for reasons as yet unclear, fired V. M.
Andrianov, believed to be a close associate of Malenkov; and some
of his personal prominence has been achieved at the premier's ex-
pense,-
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While Khrushchevts original rise after Beria's purge may
well have been inspired by the collective's desire to create a
counterweight to Malenkov's growing prestige, it has now ex-
ceeded the limits which such a purpose would impose, and Khrushchev,
not Malenkov, now appears to represent the greatest threat to the
principle of collective rule. It does not seem possible to ex-
plain Khrushchev's build-up as an effort to enhance the prestige
of the party by raising that of its first secretary. For one
thing, this could be done equally well by stressing the role of
a group of party leaders, and other strictly party figures have
not received similar treatment. For another thing.,,many of. the.
tributes to Khrushchev have been of a personal character. Thus
Khrushchev's growing prominence appears to be part of a personal
quest for power by him or his supporters.
A clue to the present relation of forces within the top leader-
ship may be contained in the adoption in June of an alphabetical
listing of the party presidium, which deprived Malenkov of one of
his few remaining attributes of pre-eminence within that group.
The shift may merely reflect an inability to.agree.on any precedence
of listing, but it would suggest that Malenkov no longer holds a
clear position as first among equals within the Soviet hierarchy.
It has been argued that the alphabetical listing is designed to re-
assert the strictest,principles of collectivity, thus dealing a
blow at Khrushchev, the prime violator of this principle. However,
the move has not been accompanied by the propaganda fanfare about
collectivity one would expect if this were its motivation.
There have been suggestions in the past several weeks that
Malenkov or the top leaders as a group may be moving against
Khrushchev. Despite his public leadership of the new agricultural
program and contrary to previous practice, Khrushchev apparently
did not give the keynote address at the late June central committee
plenum on agriculture and he was not publicly identified with its
decree on the subject.. The publicity accorded Malenkov has slightly
increased, and Voroshilov strongly affirmed the principles of
collectivity in his speech to the Hungarian party congress.
In spite of these presumed maneuverings within the top
Soviet hierarchy, no conclusive signs of fundamental policy con-
flicts within the Kremlin have appeared. Ambassador Bohlen has
noted that Khrushchev seems to take a less realistic attitude to-
ward domestic problems and ,a less calm and sober view of the inter-
national situation than does Malenkov. This may prove to be a
cause of concern for the West if he succeeds in gaining the lead-
ing position within the USSR.
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THE NEW STATURE OF MAO TSE-TUNG*
Mao Tse-tung has apparently succeeded in obtaining from
Stalin's heirs a role in the determination of developments in
the Far East commensurate with his position as the most eminent
living Communist leader and Asian revolutionary theorist.
The Chinese Communists have been referring to "the Mao
Tse-tung ideology" for at least the past ten years, and since
1950 have worked particularly hard to present him as a major
Marxist theorist. By 1953 the Chinese were waging a real if
subtle-battle with the Russians to gain recognition of the worth
of Mao's doctrines and Peiping's freedom to proclaim them.
The Chinese have claimed that Mao has made important con-
tributions to Marxist-Leninist materialist dialectics and to the
Lenin-Stalin theory on colonial revolutions, that he developed
a "complete theory of new democracy" from Stalin's instructions,
and that he built up a "complete theoretical system about the
peasants' revolutionary war" from Stalin's viewpoint on armed
struggle.
These claims are in part true. At any rate, since Stalin's
death Soviet reviews of Mao's written works have described them
as an "enrichment" of, or as a major "contribution" to, Marxist
theory. Until that time, such terms had been reserved exclu-
sively for Lenin's and Stalin's achievements, and their use in
references to Mao has in effect elevated him to a position of
an author of world Communist doctrine.
A related question has been that of the applicability of
"Mao's road" to other colonial and semicolonial revolutions in
Asia. The Chinese claim to be a model for Asian revolutions
dates from 1949, at which time Mao's tactics were recommended
to all Asian "liberation" movements.
The Russians failed to espouse this Chinese line, and in
November 1951 a conference of Russian theorists in Moscow con-
cluded it would be "risky" to regard the Chinese revolution as
"some kind of stereotype" for the Far East. Chinese abandonment
of this line in late 1951 was probably in part the result of
agreement with Moscow on a shift in tactics among Far Eastern
Communist movements in that year, deriving from frustration of
the Communist military program in Korea and elsewhere. It also
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seemed to represent an open acquiescence by Peiping in Moscow's
claim to be the policymaking as well as spiritual center for the
Asian revolutions.
The Chinese did not, however, abandon their belief in the
eventual applicability of their program to much of Asia. In both
1952 and 1953 Chinese official works asserted that "all, or at
least some, of the colonial peoples in the Far East can maintain
for an extended period large or small base areas and revolution-
ary regimes, carry on a revolutionary war to encircle the cities
from the countryside, and proceed gradually to take over the
cities and win nationwide victory...."
By allowing their propagandists to acknowledge Mao's revo-
lutionary concepts as a contribution to the theory of national-
colonial revolutions, the post-Stalin Russian leaders have taken
a major step toward reviving Peiping's claims of being a model.
The Cominform journal took another step in January 1954 by
observing that Mao had "creatively, and in a new way,"
characterized the Chinese revolution as one of "a special type,
now typical for the revolution in colonial and semicolonial
countries."
Moscow's deferential treatment of Mao's works appears to
represent an indirect admission that Peiping has obtained a
greater voice, if not a voice equal to Moscow's, in formulating
strategy and tactics for Communist movements in Southeast Asia.
It also seems to acknowledge Peiping as a second, if lesser,
spiritual center for such movements.
An apparent illustration of this development was the
Viet Minh's Sino-Soviet-Vietnam Friendship Month in January 1954,
during which the Viet Minh gave extraordinary credit to Mao for
Ho Chi.Minh's successes. Whereas the Cominform journal four
months earlier had deleted all references to Chinese guidance
from a Viet Minh official's article, the journal in January 1954
publicized the Viet Minh's debt to China.
Moscow may have been reluctant to relinquish any of its
authority over Communist movements in the Far East. The shar-
ing of authority necessarily involves the possibility that the
USSR and China will disagree on the means for achieving their
common aims in the region, or the timetable for their program,
or its effects on the national interests of each.
On the other hand, Peiping must surely seem to Moscow a
trustworthy partner, and Moscow may well feel that the sharing
of authority in Southeast Asia is a cheap price to pay for the
Chinese contribution to the achievement of Soviet aims there.
There seems little reason to expect that Moscow and Peiping will
help out the West by quarreling seriously with each other.
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SPECIAL ARTICLE
CURRENT WESTERN EUROPEAN ATTITUDES TOWARD AMERICAN
POLICIES AND THE COLD WAR
Since the Berlin conference, the governments of Western
Europe have taken positions increasingly in disagreement with
those of the United States. Popular criticism of American
inflexibility and impetuosity, which was formerly restricted
largely to Communists and other political minorities, has also
increased and is now widespread in all segments of public
opinion.
This trend, apparent among members of the Western alliance
as well as in formally neutral nations, is particularly strong
in those countries which are the most important allies of the
United States. With most countries it is partly a simple re-
flection of greater economic strength and lessened dependence
on American aid. Primarily, however, it stems from a reassess-
ment of the Soviet threat and the belief that Washington has
failed to adjust its policies to meet the diplomatic needs of
a period of reduced tension which may continue indefinitely.
Indochina
The British and French approach to the Geneva conference
has been widely praised in Europe as compatible with a general
desire to test Communist intentions through negotiations.
Although the USSR's unwillingness to make concessions at the
Berlin meeting dampened optimism for a solution to European
problems, the prospects for further meetings with Communist
leaders on other international problems sustained the hope for
some kind of negotiated peace. Regardless of the final results
of the Geneva meeting, proposals for further conferences will
almost certainly not be rejected out of hand.
British and other European leaders regarded American
appeals for "united action" and "intervention" on the eve of
the Geneva conference as not conducive to an atmosphere of
genuine negotiation. The mid-April "misunderstanding" over
the timing of a Southeast Asian defense system has been generally
blamed on Washington, and Secretary Dulles was widely criticized
for the brevity of his sojourn at Geneva.
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By contrast, Foreign Secretary Eden was widely praised
for his exhaustive efforts to promote a peaceful settlement
of the Indochina war. His continuing attempts to enlist
Southeast Asian nations in a defensive alliance have won him
especial acclaim in Britain. The American embassy in London
comments on Eden's 23 June statement about Geneva in the House
of Commons that for the first time since the war, a British
foreign secretary has won the commendation of all wings of
all political parties.
The French feel firmly that they must end the Indochinese
drain on their resources, and are strongly in favor of Premier
Mendes-France's policy of seeking an immediate end to the Indo-
china fighting. Like the British and the vast majority of
other Europeans who attach priority to the defense of Western
Europe, they want to avoid a recurrence of hostilities which
might involve them in Southeast Asia again. The French tend
to blame Washington for failure to support their desire for a
negotiated peace, particularly in view of the United States'
willingness to end the Korean fighting in a stalemate.
In their present weakened condition at home and abroad,
the French are reluctant to undertake further commitments on
the continent. They are increasingly disposed to think that
France must have time to rebuild its strength in Europe before
West Germany is allowed to rearm. Mendes-France, unlike Laniel,
has committed himself only to give the National Assembly the
chance to decide on the EDC issue, and not to win approval of
the present EDC treaty.
European Defense
Most members of the North Atlantic alliance are increasingly
disposed to regard the present rearmament plateau as a maximum
military effort within the long-haul concept of NATO strategy.
British chancellor of the exchequer Butler's budget speech in
April, in which he stated that relief from defense burdens
"must" be found this.year, is an accurate reflection of the
attitude of almost all NATO members.-
Although present commitments are being generally met, there
is little sense of urgency. Popular enthusiasm for NATO ties
has waned considerably in such countries as Denmark and Iceland.
There have already been some readjustments which tend to slacken
the general military effort, such as the Belgian reduction in
stages of the period of military service from 24 to 18 months.
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Guatemala
The sharpest reaction against the United States since
the widespread disapproval of the hydrogen bomb tests in March
has been aroused by Washington's handling of the Guatemalan
situation. Seldom has any action been so universally condemned
as the American request to search European ships on the high
seas to prevent arms from reaching the Arbenz regime, which
many Europeans regarded as non-Communist. The United States
has, moreover, been adjudged maladroit generally on the Guate-
malan issue and guilty of poor tactics in the United Nations.
The American embassy in London reports that the American ver-
sion of the whole affair is not accepted at its face value.
East-West Trade
Within the economic area of cold war tactics, the British
have not diminished their efforts to secure a drastic reduction
in the number and scope of Western export controls. The presi-
dent of the British Board of Trade wrote FOA director Stassen
on 25 June that parliament and public opinion in his country
would understand no policy on trade with the Orbit except one
governed by commercial and peacetime criteria. The Danes con-
tinue to block any COCOM agreement on controlling the sales of
nonembargoed merchant shipping to the Soviet Orbit.
All the Scandinavian countries have concluded agreements
calling for large increases in trade with the Soviet Union and
its Satellites during 1954. Recognition of the fact that the
Orbit has little to export has not deterred European business-
men--particularly the British--from seeking actively to expand
trade with Communist countries.
Communist China
As a part of their general approach designed to reduce
East-West tensions, the British have sought closer diplomatic
and commercial relations with Peiping. Their decisions to
receive a Communist Chinese charge d'affaires and an official
trade mission in London and to expand trade With China in
nonstrategic goods were undertaken with the prior acknowledg-
ment that there would be unfavorable American repercussions,
as was also the acceptance by top Labor Party leaders of an
invitation to visit Peiping this summer.
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These actions have, however, won approbation in most
European countries, which tend to follow the British rather
than the American lead on this question. The American embassy
in Paris has the impression that France may soon recognize
Peiping, and the British embassy in Oslo reports that the
Chinese Communists have put out feelers about establishing
diplomatic relations with Norway.
East-West tensions
Ever since the death of Stalin, Europeans have believed
that there has been a genuine detente in East-West tensions.
The hope that this detente may evolve into an indefinitely
prolonged period of reduced tension has largely replaced the
fear of Soviet aggression.
The desire to promote stability in the East-West con-
flict by trying to negotiate diplomatically and to increase
commercial and cultural contacts with the Communist nations
is contrasted by Europeans with what they regard as the
American compulsion to oppose Communism actively, to threaten
both allies and adversaries, and to pursue the cold war by
all means short of outright military action.
One of the major diplomatic efforts to test the possi-
bility of replacing the cold war with an armed peace lies in
the advocacy of Locarno-type pacts, a "master thought" first
advanced by Winston Churchill on 11 May 1953. This concept
has since reportedly been received favorably by India's
Prime Minister Nehru, and on 23 June Anthony Eden suggested
that it might be appropriate for Southeast Asia as well as
for Europe.
Reactions to American-British differences
The divisive effects of an Anglo-American split on the
Western alliance--for which the United States as the acknowl-
edged leader bears the brunt of criticism--have not gone
unnoticed. The general press reaction to the Churchill-
Eisenhower talks has been one of hope that the alliance is
strong and fear that the fundamental differences may be un-
resolved. French general Ely told Ambassador Dillon on
29 June that he felt that the Western powers had lost tremen-
dously in prestige in the last few months as compared to inter-
national Communism, and that the obvious lack of Western unity
has had a terribly damaging effect on negotiations with the
Viet Minh.
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COUNDENTIAL
Conclusion
There is unlikely to be any lessening of European efforts
under British leadership to encourage patience and moderation
in Washington as well as in Moscow and Peiping. There is,
however, no force strong enough inside or outside Western
governments to modify the present East-West line-up. Neutralism,
in countries other than those which have traditionally pursued
an alliance-free policy, remains only a dream. It enjoys wide
popular support, but is usually linked to some immediate
national objective rather than to active promotion of any
"third force" bloc. In West Germany, for example, neutrality
appears to be the price which some elements would pay in return
for Soviet concessions leading toward reunification of Germany.
Far from reconsidering their adherence to the alliance,
NATO members are apprehensive that the end of American
economic aid will be followed by a political and military
withdrawal from the continent in favor of a peripheral
strategy with heavy reliance on nuclear weapons. At the same
time, many Europeans regard American pronouncements about
"massive retaliation" and "rolling back" Communism as danger-
ously inconsistent with American military cutbacks.
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