PUBLICATION SOURCE SURVEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2002
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: October 1, 1978
• Content Type: FORM

25X1 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 rgvee '4j elease 2002/06/13: CIA-RDP80T00702A0005000 - get
Assessment
Center
China: 1978 Midyear
Crop Outlook
An Intelligence Assessment
ER 78-10666
October 1978
Approved For Release 2002/06/13: CIA-RDP80T00702A0005000500t"
25X1
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
China: 1978 Midyear Crop Outlook
Central Intelligence Agency
National Foreign Assessment Center
Key Judgments
China's grain harvest in 1978 will increase substantially for the first time
since 1975. The combined output of summer grain (up 7 million tons) and
early rice (up 3 million tons) has put the Chinese well ahead of last year's
early harvest. It is still too soon to predict the size of the fall harvest, but an
increase of only 2 million tons would yield a 4.3-percent growth for the year
as a whole-which is the average annual rate necessary to reach the 1985
target of 400 million tons.
China: Grain Harvest
Million Metric tons
1976
1977
1978
Total ..............................
285
286
...
Early Harvest ............
100
96
106
Late Harvest ............
185
190
...
Despite the favorable outlook, Peking continues to order grain imports at
record levels. The 8.7 million tons to be imported this year is to bolster
consumption (especially in large northern urban centers), to rebuild stocks
(which were probably drawn down considerably in the last two years), and
possibly to reduce the burden of state procurement on rural areas near large
cities.
Summer Grain. Winter wheat and barley account for 5 million tons of
the increase in this year's summer grain crop. Miscellaneous winter grains,
lentils, pulses, and potatoes may have added an additional 2 million tons.
Early Rice. Output increased about 3 million tons over the 1977 level,
despite drought and high temperatures. Better water management and
increased use of new seed varieties probably accounted for most of the
increase.
Fall Harvest. The outlook for the fall harvest, which ordinarily accounts
for two-thirds of grain production, is mixed. Thus far, conditions for coarse
grains are better than last year, but yields of late rice may be down.
Trade Prospects. Agricultural imports will exceed those of 1977, with
most of the increase due to a 26-percent increase in grain imports. Cotton
imports are already triple the 1977 level and will exceed 500,000 tons. Sugar
imports may be as high as last year's 1.6 million tons, and soybean oil imports
will continue in the range of 150,000 to 200,000 tons.
25X1
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
China: Selected Agricultural Areas
Ch'ing-,W Hu,; 'ter.
( kd'M /,
TSINGHA1 j-J
wirtio J110
Ht:It 41N`GKIANG
KANSU
KWA,Ui G
Floii,g l:aen
.U.F.i
0 200 400 Kilometers
0 200 400 Miles
ii
SECRET
tNNEP,
MONGOLIA.
le/low
Sea
test L',
:HE,KII Ab`G Sea
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
25X1
China: 1978 Midyear Crop Outlook
Introduction
This study reviews agricultural output for the
first half of 1978, discusses China's grain import
position, and evaluates prospects for the impor-
tant 1978 fall harvest. An assessment of China's
current agricultural performance is complicated
by the lack of official Chinese statistics. Official
press statements on crop output are incomplete
and not necessarily consistent with previously
released information. Nevertheless, we believe'
they are generally accurate, and by tempering
them with judgments based on weather data and
intelligence reports, we can present a broadly
accurate estimate of Chinese agricultural output.
General Crop Outlook for 1978
China's grain harvest this year will show the
first major increase since 1975, and the increase
in grain output may be double the rate of
population increase for the year. Because of the
increase in summer grain and early rice output
this year, China is presently 10 million metric
tons ahead of last year. It is still too early to
predict the size of the fall harvest, but an
increase of only 2 million tons would yield a 4.3-
percent growth for the year as a whole-which is
the average annual rate necessary to reach the
1985 target of 400 million tons.
Despite the substantial increase, scattered
press reports and public statements indicate that
Chinese planners may be disappointed, possibly
because per capita grain consumption will not
exceed the 1974-75 level despite record imports
and the increase in output. Moreover, some of
the increased grain output and record purchases
may serve to rebuild reserves or reduce state
procurement burdens on rural areas adjacent to
large cities.
Summer-Harvested Grains
The summer grain harvest-which accounts
for one-half of the early harvest-showed
marked improvement over the drought-ravaged
crop of 1977, but was essentially a recovery to
1976 levels. Good moisture conditions in the fall
of 1977 benefited this year's winter wheat and
barley crops. Reports in late July claimed a
10-percent increase over 1977-amounting to
5 million tons-all of which was wheat and
barley. A later report on 18 September stated
that "this summer's wheat harvest and early rice
output were 10 million tons more than last year,
in spite of severe spring drought." Since the
increase in the early rice harvest was originally
characterized as "not very large," we believe that
an additional 2 million tons of summer grain
were contributed by potatoes and grains other
than wheat and barley.
New China News Agency reported on 2 Au-
gust that output was up in 20 of the 24 summer
grain-producing provinces and down only in
Shansi and Shensi-which agrees generally with
provincial reporting received thus far. (See table
1 in the appendix.)
Although this year's summer grain crop was
also plagued by drought and high temperatures,
the drought broke on 8 June and overall growing
conditions were better than last year in the
important North China Plain region. Kiangsu
Province, the northern portion of which lies
within the Plain, accounted for fully one-half of
the national increase in winter wheat and barley
output. This performance in a province that
suffered worse drought than in 1977 indicates
better water management and that the claim of
40 percent "stable high yield" fields is
reasonable.
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
Winter wheat, which includes barley in Chi-
nese grain statistics, was the bright spot in this
year's summer grain harvest. Among major pro-
ducers, excellent crops in Anhwei, Honan,
Kiangsu, and Shantung paced the national in-
crease. Good harvests in a number of lesser
provinces helped to offset the lackluster harvests
of Hopeh - and Shensi, both major producers.
Shensi reported a 30-percent decline from 1977
output. (See table 2 in the appendix.)
The output of spring wheat-about 2 percent
of China's annual grain output-may be slightly
better than last year. Kirin Province, a relatively
minor producer, has reported a "fairly good
harvest" in 1978. Heilungkiang, which accounts
for nearly one-half of the spring wheat area,
reached its acreage target, but has made no
output claim. In Heilungkiang, there was much
press reporting on drought in late May and early
June, but weather data do not show a severe
problem. It is too early to tell if the absence of
reporting indicates a decline in output or a later
than normal harvest due to cooler weather and
better rainfall than the last two years.
Early Rice
On 1 August, Vice Premier Chi Teng-kuei
stated that this year's increase in early rice was
not very large and cited drought and high tem-
peratures as the causes. Since the increase was
not large enough to report individually, this
could be the second year of maintaining the 1976
record production level for early rice. However,
we have apportioned 3 million of the combined
10-million-ton increase in summer grain and
early rice to early rice by process of elimination;
we do not believe summer grain accounted for
more than 7 million of the 10 million tons.
Hence, we estimate the 1978 early rice output at
about 53 million tons-a slight increase over the
1976 record.
China's early rice crop almost always encoun-
ters some form of adverse weather because of the
early planting date necessitated by multiple crop-
ping. Judging from the last two years, inputs and
land management are adequate to maintain the
status quo. However, it may be that new varie-
ties, less sensitive to day length and of shorter
maturity, helped to increase the output of this
crop that accounts for nearly one-fifth the annual
harvest.
Most provinces completed their early rice har-
vest ahead of schedule because of high tempera-
tures that forced the grain to maturity. This was
particularly true in the Middle Yangtze Plain,
where Hunan and Hupeh had good harvests. The
coastal Provinces of Chekiang and Fukien also
had good harvests, with respective increases of 15
and 16 percent over 1977. Kiangsi reported a
10-percent increase over last year.
In south China, Kwangtung Province reported
that it "failed to fulfill the planned increase" in
early rice. Neighboring Kwangsi, another prov-
ince with large acreage, made no claim. A cool
wet spring caused seedlings to rot and delayed
planting. In Szechwan, a relatively minor pro-
ducer, production stayed the same despite an
acreage cut to accommodate crop rotation shifts,
indicating good yields. (See table 3 in the
appendix).
Fall Harvest Prospects
We believe this year's fall harvest will be at
least as good as last year's. Coarse grains in the
North China Plain and northeast are doing well
despite delayed planting. Growing conditions for
intermediate and late rice are generally good.
This harvest normally accounts for about two-
thirds of annual grain output, including soybeans
and tubers (see figure 1).
It is still too early to estimate the outcome of
this year's intermediate rice crop, now being
harvested. The crop was growing well in most
major areas in late August, but it is possible that
a decline in acreage due to shifts in crop rotation
will hold output down.
Late rice output may turn out to be about the
same as last year's. In south China, transplanting
of late rice was delayed by the late harvest of
early rice. This has become an almost perennial
problem associated with increased cropping in-
tensity in south China. Problems arise when
harvesting of late rice is delayed until mid-
November, as cool weather retards growth and
rainstorms can cause large losses. Thus far,
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
China: Composition of Grain Output
Fall Harvest
Intermediate Rice
Late Rice
Coarse Grains:
Corn
Millet
Sorghum
Sweet Potatoes
Irish Potatoes
Soybeans
Spring
Wheat
conditions in the Middle Yangtze Plain and
lower Yangtze Plain appear better than last year.
Much of China's important coarse grain crop
(corn, millet, and sorghum) was planted under
drought conditions this year. Most damaged
crops were replanted, and reasonably good stands
were achieved before heavy rains ensued in late
June and early July. In north China, where
waterlogging is common, conditions thus far are
better than last year. Nevertheless, it is still too
early to assess the impact of weather on this
area. In northeast China, where heavy rains and
subsequent waterlogging affected only low-lying
areas, crops may be better than last year.
Industrial Crops
The drought conditions that affected the sum-
mer grain harvest probably affected cotton as
well. There has been virtually no reporting on
this year's crop, but acreage has apparently been
rather constant since 1973. In provincial report-
ing, only Kiangsu has , mentioned cotton since
June, and cotton there was withering in some
areas at the end of August. A limited amount of
available land, marginal growing conditions in
some provinces, and increasing output of syn-
thetic fibers have combined to limit the growth
of cotton output. We expect this year's crop will
be about 2.0 million tons, the same as in 1977
but far below the 1973 level of 2.6 million tons.
China was able to improve its output of rape-
seed to a record level this year largely because of
expanded acreage. The 1978 acreage was about
667,000 hectares greater than 1977, partly due
to expanded early winter plantings on idle cotton
and rice fields. This has helped to alleviate
China's chronic shortage of edible oils, but the
balance for this year will depend on upcoming
harvests of peanuts, sesame, and cottonseed.
China's 1977/78 sugar crops (cane and beet)
increased 15 percent over 1976/77's drought-
stricken crop. Cane production was up in south
China due to increased area and better weather.
Yields increased in Heilungkiang and Kirin
Provinces, China's main beet producers. Despite
increases of 22 percent in Kwangtung, 30 percent
in Fukien, and 100 percent in Szechwan, this
year's national output was not claimed as a
record. The outlook for the 1978/79 crop is
mixed. Conditions appear at least as good as last
year in south China, and better rainfall in the
northeast may increase this year's beet crop.
Impact on Trade
Agricultural imports in 1978 will exceed those
of 1977. A record 8.7 million tons of grain have
been purchased for 1978 delivery. Of this
amount, Canada will supply 3.2 million tons,
Australia 2.4 million, the US 2.7 million, Argen-
tina 0.2 million, and other sources 0.2 million
(see figure 2). These large purchases were due
primarily to pressures on grain supply caused by
China's inability to increase grain production
since 1975, while population was increasing by
about 60 million. Until late 1976, China drew
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
China: Imports of Grain, by Source
M
1966-70
Annual
Average
down grain reserves to avoid spending hard
currency, which merely delayed the increased
purchases. Lower prices for wheat and the avail-
ability of foreign exchange have also encouraged
purchasing.
We estimate that China will need approxi-
mately 850,000 tons of imported grain monthly
this year and next to maintain a steady supply to
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
United
States
the cities of north China. Several developments
bolster the analysis:
? Purchases of 4.0 million tons of US grain for
delivery between September 1978 and Sep-
tember 1979.
? Canada has a contract to supply China
3 million tons of wheat from September
1978 through August 1979.
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
? Argentina has signed a long-term agreement
with China calling for 800,000 to 1 million
tons of grain per year for the 1979-81 period.
? Australia, a traditional supplier of Chinese
wheat imports, will be negotiating in Peking
this month. Australia will be able to supply
the estimated 2.0 million tons needed to keep
wheat imports flowing at 850,000 tons per
month in 1979.
China continues to purchase US grain for
delivery during 1979 before attempting to fulfill
its needs from traditional suppliers. The most
recent purchase covers over 1 million tons of corn
for October 1978 - February 1979 delivery,
raising total purchases of US grain to 5 million
tons since April. These sales show that China no
longer considers the United States a residual
supplier and has broadened its base of suppliers
to lessen the possibility of a recurrence of the
shipping delays caused by Canadian transporta-
tion problems and Australian overselling last
year.
Imports of other agricultural commodities are
also continuing at high levels. Sugar imports will
exceed 1 million tons and may reach last year's
level of 1.6 million tons. The Chinese have
continued unusually large imports in spite of
claims of a good cane harvest and major in-
creases in sugar production. They have probably
opted to take advantage of depressed world sugar
prices to increase consumption or stockpiles at
bargain prices. The Chinese have not resold
unusually large amounts of refined sugar on the
world market, and fears that China might dump
refined sugar on the market appear unjustified.
Cotton imports, following a poor harvest in
1977, are already triple the 1977 level and will
exceed 500,000 tons. United States cotton grow-
ers have benefited from the record Chinese de-
mand by already selling 145,000 tons of cotton.
Imports of soybeans are down considerably
from last year. Soybean oil imports will continue
to be in the range of 150,000 to 200,000 tons.
The domestic oilseed situation remains tight
following last year's poor oilseed harvest, al-
though the record rapeseed harvest is expected to
help alleviate the shortages.
On the export side, the Chinese have commit-
ted at least 800,000 tons of rice for export in
1978, and exports are likely to reach 1 million
tons. Higher world prices are the most likely
cause of the increase over last year's exports of
700,000 tons. Thus far, soybean exports have
continued at or below the low level of last year,
but it appears that Chinese attempts to increase
soybean production for export are beginning to
succeed. China is now selling soybeans from its
1978 crop to Japan for November-March deliv-
ery, and initial offerings indicate that sales will
be at least 250,000 tons.
25X1
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
China: Summer Grain Output, 1978
Anhwei
Chekiang
Total output 20 per-
cent over 1977
Total output 100 per-
SWB, FE/W988, 2 Jul
cent over 1977
78, AS.
Fukien
Record output
PD, 3 Aug 78, p. 1.
Honan
No claim
FBIS, 24 Jul 78, Hl.
Hopeh
Total output 20 per-
FBIS, 17 Jul 78, E21.
Hunan
cent over 1977 record
output
Below record
PD, 3 Aug 78, p. I.
FBIS, 25 Aug 78, Hl.
Hupeh
Total output 20 per-
SWB, FE 987, 5 Jul 78,
cent over 1977
A5.
Kansu
Kiangsi
Kiangsu
No claim
No claim
Total output 20 per-
FBIS, 1 Aug 78, E20.
cent over 1976, the
previous record;
2,500,000 tons over
1977
Kwangsi
Kwangtung
No claim
Record output
PD, 3 Aug 78, p. 1.
Kweichow
Record output
PD, 3 Aug 78, p. 1.
Liaoning
Peking
No claim
Record
PD, 3 Aug 78, p. 1.
Shanghai
Bumper harvest
FBIS, 11 Aug 78, G7.
Shansi
Shantung
No claim
Better output than
FBIS, 18 Aug 78, G3.
1977
Shensi
Sinkiang
No claim
Total output 15 per-
FBIS, 7 Aug 78, Ml.
Tientsin
cent over 1977 all-
time high
Total output 50 per-
FBIS, 20 Jul 78, K2.
Szechwan
cent over 1977 rec-
ord output
Total output 10 per-
PD, 3 Aug 78, p. 1.
FBIS, 8 Aug 78, J5.
Yunnan
cent over 1977 rec-
ord output
Record output
PD, 3 Aug 78, p. 1.
' The following abbreviations were used for source references:
FBIS (Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report,
People's Republic of China); SWB (British Broadcasting Corpora-
tion, Summary of World Broadcasts, Part 3, "The Far East, Weekly
Economic Report"); and PD, People's Daily, Peking.
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
China: Winter Wheat Output
1978 Output
Claim
5 million metric tons
over 1977
Area
(Million Hectares)
Source of Information
Anhwei
20 percent over 1977
1.80
FBIS, 11 Jul 78, Gl.
Chekiang
2 times 1977
0.53
FBIS, 21 Jun 72, C3.
Fukien
Record
0.26
FBIS, 13 Dec 76, Gl.
Honan
10 percent over 1977
4.14
FBIS, 19 May 78, H9.
Hopeh
No claim
2.67
FBIS, 13 Jul 78, K3.
Hunan
No claim
0.60
FBIS, 17 Mar 72, B5.
26 Jun 72, B3.
1.80
FBIS, 6 Jan 76, H8.
10 Jul 75, E2.
Kansu
No claim
0.80
FBIS, 20 Apr 77, M3.
Kiangsi
10 percent over 1977
0.30
FBIS, 21 Feb 74, C12.
Kiangsu
10 percent over 1976
2.27
FBIS, 1 Jul 75, G2.
Kwangsi
No claim
0.17
FBIS, 9 Jun 77, H3.
Kwangtung
No claim
0.53
FBIS, 21 Apr 78, H5.
Kweichow
No claim
0.52
SWB W865/A/6, 18 Feb 76.
Liaoni.Ig
No claim
0.10
SWB W853/A/7, 19 Nov 75.
Peking
No claim
0.18
SWB W865/ A/8, 18 Feb 76.
Shanghai
No claim
0.20
SWB, 9 Jun 76, A5.
FBIS, 11 Apr 74, G9.
Shansi
No claim
0.98
FBIS, 17 May 78, K2.
Shantung
7 percent over 1977
3.87
FBIS, 25 Jul 78, G8.
Shensi
30 percent below 1977
2.00
JPRS 70773, 14 Mar 78, p. 71.
Sinkiang
No claim
0.69
FBIS, 5 Jun 78, M2.
Szechwan
No claim
2.07
Hsinhua, 11 May 78, V. 20.
Tibet
No claim
0.05
FBIS, 13 Apr 77, J1.
Tientsin
No claim
0.20
FBIS, 21 Mar 75, K4.
Yunnan
No claim
0.04
FBIS, 11 Oct 73, E2.
' The following abbreviations were used for source references: FBIS (Foreign Broadcast Information Service,
Daily Report, People's Republic of China); JPRS (Joint Publication Report Service); SWB (British Broadcasting
Corporation, Summary of World Broadcasts, Part 3, "The Far East, Weekly Economic Report").
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
China: Early Rice Output
1978 Output
Claim
Area
(Million Hectares)
National
Provincial total
"Increase not very large"
Anhwei
No claim
0.80
FBIS, 23 Mar 77, G2.
Chekiang
15 percent over 1977 all-time
1.20
FBIS, 24 Aug 78, G1.
Fukien
high
16 percent over 1977; 100,000
Hunan
metric tons over 1974 peak
10 percent over 1977
2.06
F13IS, 24 Aug 78, Hl.
Hupeh
Bumper
1.13
FBIS, 19 Aug 77, H6.
Kiangsi
10 percent over 1977
1.60
FBIS, 24 Aug 78, G1.
Kiangsu
No claim
0.87
FBIS, 25 Aug 76, E5.
Kwangsi
No claim
1.3
FBIS, 9 May 78, H6.
Kwangtung
Failed to fulfill planned in-
2.00
F13IS, 9 May 78, H6.
Kweichow
crease
No claim
0.06
F13IS, 15 Aug 73, El.
Shanghai
No claim
0.15
F13IS, 10 Jun 76, E5.
Szechwan
No increase
0.26
F13IS, 23 Aug 78, E10.
Yunnan
11.4 percent over 1977
0.07
SWB W844/A/13, 17 Sep 75.
I The following abbreviations were used for source references: FBIS (Foreign Broadcast Information Service,
Daily Report, People's Republic of China); SWB (British Broadcasting Corporation, Summary of World
Broadcasts, Part 3, "The Far East, Weekly Economic Report," "Summary of People's Republic of China Press").
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
 Secret
Approved For Release 2002/06/13 : CIA-RDP80T00702A000500050010-0
Approved For Release 2002/06/13": CIA-RDP8OT0 /'02AOp }O ? 01