NIO MEETING, 6 MAY 1974

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01082A000700210002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 17, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 8, 1974
• Content Type: MFR

Approved For Release 200 i/ ~ CIA-RDP80M01082A000
DCI/IC 74-0693
May 8, 1974
25X1
25X1 4. opened with comments on the status of
MC 161, NIE 11-12, the ASW paper, and NSSM 196. He stated
he was drawing up a paper for the NATO ministerial meeting
in June which would deal primarily with Warsaw Pact member
attitudes towards the NATO threat.
25X1 S. Assistant NIO/Energy reported on the
status of project "Independence". He noted that the FEO had
organized seven groups within this project. He stated that
the international group was preparing a paper on the energy
market--1985-1990.
6. He said that he was coordinating with State and
Treasury on the subject of future supply interruptions.
25
25
25
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: NIO Meeting, 6 May 1974
1. The meeting opened with comments by
NIO/Middle East. He noted a certain amount of con use
understanding in terms of what was going on on the current
negotiations. He indicated that his recently published
memorandum on Syria/Israeli hostilities was likely to be an
important contribution. He referred to several comments on
this memo from the field.
2. With respect to the NIAM on the Arab/Israeli
military situation he noted that it was coming slowly in DIA
who did not have their best analysts assigned to the problem.
Mr. Carver indicated that he would be talking to ADM de Poix
about this situation.
being drafted by OCI.
3. The Saudi/Egy tian/Iranian relations paper is
Approved For Release 2da41 Y1 .: CIA-RDP80M01082A000700210002-4
 .
Approved For Release 2004/03/ CI j DP80M01082A000700210002-4
7. He stated that DOD was becoming much more vocal in
group meetings on the subject of national security implica-
tions on energy problems.
8. He suggested that the project "Independence" draft
should be available. by mid-June.
9. A brief discussion took place on the subject of
alternative forms of energy. Papers being prepared on coal
and atomic energy were mentioned.
25X1 10. NIO/China, discussed the status of in-
formation on China; noted its poverty and the need for long-
term research. Mr. Colby noted that this is one of the
reasons for the formation of OPR and the current contracting
effort.
25X1
25X1 12. , NIO/SEA, reported that meetings on
the Vietnamese estimate begin today. He stated that he had
received a major input to this estimate from the Saigon
station. He pointed out the general view was that there
would be no offensive next year and that this view would
prevail in the estimate. On the subject of Cambodia he
noted that the entire intelligence input was based upon the
25X1 ARVN source. Assistant NIO/SEA, spoke on the
subject of Laos. a suggested that there be an interagency
estimate of the new government and the personalities in-
volved. Mr. Colby noted that the April 9 through June 9
agreement would have all North Vietnamese troops leaving
Laos and would be a good point to hang the Laos paper on.
25X1 CIA/DIA suggested the paper would probably be a joint
memo.
13. Mr. Stoertz, NIO/Strategic Programs, addressed a
recent PFIAB memo to the President which provided a dim view
of intelligence efforts related to the SAL. A brief dis-
cussion of PFIAB ensued and Mr. Colby stated that he would
send a letter to the President on the subject.
14. Mr. Stoertz said that he had been receiving
excellent cooperation from ADM Rectanus on the Soviet laser
paper and the ASW study.
Approved For Release 200
 n
Approved For Release 2004/0iZn,; --RDP80M01082A000700210002-4
15. Mr.'Stoertz mentioned that he had received and
reviewed the JAEIC paper on the possible resumption of
Soviet atmospheric testing It was a d h
gree t at the po-
litical considerations elated to this problem would be
25X1 covered in I "Detente" paper.
16. Mr. Stoertz stated that he had a meeting with DIA
on the subject of longterm projections. The result was that
DIA was undertaking a pilot project in this area.
25X1
25X1
17. , Assistant NIO/USSR, reported on the
possibility o a Soviet plenum meeting in the near future
and its significance. She also reported on the seminar on
Yugoslavia and the preparation of the KIQ baseline report
related to the succession problem.
18? NIO/Western Europe, discussed the
an a coming OCI memo on the subject.
25X1 19. He noted that he was sending a mini-estimate on
Portugal and Africa to the DCI. Mr. Colby inquired as to
whether it identified potential pressure points in the
situation. stating that he thought it rather important that
it do so.
25X1
25X1 21. On the subject of indicated that
the Ambassador had compialned about the views
expressed on two specu ative issues and the recent I
25X1 memo. Mr. Colby inquired as to whet basses or s
position was reflected in the memo. stated that it
was with the normal attribution to Mr. Colby
stated that he would send a letter to the Ambassador whom he
knew quite well.
25
25
25
Approved For Release 201 ~' : CIA-RDP80M01082A000700210002-4
 Approved For Release 2004/03/29'; L,MA-RDP80M01082A000700210002-4
25X1 21. Assistant NIO/Economics, noted that
a five page OER paper on the oil crisis and the LDCs was
coming out today. He also reported that there was general
agreement on the views found in NSSM 200 on the population
explosion.
22. I I, NIO/Latin America, discussed a
recent meeting with the Assistant Secretary of State in
which it was reported that Secretary Kissinger desired a new
US policy paper on specific Latin American issues. A
discussion followed on Mr. Kissinger's views on the need for
such a paper.
23. indicated that he had reviewed the
Peru/Chile draft an that it was being made more analytical
and estimative. He also stated that OER was producing a
paper on the multi-nationals in Latin America and US in-
vestment in Latin America.
ormative period.
24. The final item referred to a coming coup in
Honduras about which some light discussion followed.
25. Mr. Carver, Chief NIO, mentioned that the Proxmire
briefing would be given to other intelligence members. He
also noted that he had reviewed and was discussing with the
IC Staff the FY 1975 objectives draft.
26. He referred to the problem of the quality of DIA
drafts and said he would be discussing this subject with ADM
de Poix. Finally, he noted that NIO/China, was
leaving shortly and this would be t e last meeting which he
would attend. He thanked for his help during the
NIO f
27. The DCI discussed a recent trip to SAC and NORAD.
At one point in the discussion noted that the
NORAD view of the need for an anti-satellite capability was
based on intelligence in the DIPP. A brief discussion
followed on DIPP production.
28. Mr. Colby noted that we have a great responsibility
for integrating political and economic views and factors
into military problems. He discussed the importance of a
sound negotiating strategy as well as a military strategy
noting that there are many options available prior to any
military action. He also discussed the importance of
identifying non-threats and eliminating resources which may
be applied to them. He stated that if intelligence has the
FF,
Approved For Release 2004/03/26: CIA-RDP80MO1082A000700210002-4
25
25
 Approved For Release 2004/03/2 .UA-IIDP80MO1082A000700210002-4
job of helping to prevent the nation from being killed, it
also has the important task of helping to prevent the nation
from going bankrupt.
SIGHED
DCI IC PRD TB
25
Distribution:
25X1 Orig.-I PRD Chrono
/1-IC Registry
25X1
I- Area ranc
1-Topical Branch Rtg./Chrono
1~ Chrono
E C ET
-5-
Approved For Release 2004/03/26 : CIA-RDP80MO1082A000700210002-4