ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 87
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 14, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
ER EIW 77-028
14 July 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4COPY N2 581
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
NOCONTRACT- Not Releasable to Contractors or
Contractor/ Consultants
PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Involved
NFIBONLY- NFIB Departments Only
ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
REL .. - This Information has been Authorized for
Release to ...
Classified by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
? 5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
date impossible to determine
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
SECRET
Noforn
14 July 1977
Communist Countries: Demand for Grain in Marketing Year 1978 .. .... .. 1
An uncertain crop outlook in China will push aggregate Communist
imports of grain moderately above last year's level, with an estimated 27
to 30 million tons needed from the West.
EC Enlargement: The Agricultural Connection .. . . .. . . . . .. .. ... .
The possible entry of Greece, Portugal, and Spain into the European
Community threatens the economic interests of French and Italian
producers of Mediterranean-type agricultural products.
Brazil: Outlook for the Balance of Payments,
Inflation, and Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Austere economic policies give promise of reduced inflation, revived
business activity, and a more comfortable foreign payments situation.
World Tea Market: A Windfall for Producers . .. . . . . ... . .. .. .. .. 18
The jump in export earnings of tea producing countries-from the $900
million realized in 1976 to the $1.4 billion or more expected in 1977-has
cooled exporter support for an international tea agreement.
i
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RQ&7CQ90457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
SECRET
Noforn
COMMUNIST COUNTRIES: DEMAND FOR GRAIN
IN MARKETING YEAR 1978*
An uncertain crop outlook in China will push aggregate Communist imports of
grain in marketing year (MY) 1978 moderately above last year's level.
Total imports by the USSR, Eastern Europe, and the PRC peaked in MY 1976
at 40.2 million tons but fell to 29.5 million tons in MY 1977. If prospects for record
crops in the USSR and Eastern Europe continue for the balance of the growing and
harvesting season, total import demand for the 1978 marketing year will range
between 31 and 34 million tons. A drop from the MY 1977 level in requirements by
the USSR and Eastern Europe would be more than matched 'by a twofold increase
for China. Of the total, about 4 million tons would represent shipments among the
Communist countries themselves-approximately the same as in MY 1977. Of the 27
to 30 million tons needed from the West, we estimate that more than half has
already been contracted for.
The USSR appears headed toward another record grain harvest. Both CIA and
the US Department of Agriculture currently estimate production in calendar year
1977 at 225 million tons, slightly above last year's record harvest. Winter grain
production is expected to hit a record 72 million tons, nearly 20 percent more than
in 1976. Spring grain output is likely to reach 153 million tons-the USSR's third
largest spring harvest. We estimate the 1977 wheat crop at 107 million tons, 10
percent greater than last year.
Crop conditions in the major winter grain area of the European USSR have
been favorable throughout the growing season. Farmers nonetheless face problems in
*This article covers the USSR, Eastern Europe (except Albania and Yugoslavia), and China. The marketing year
for these countries varies by crop, normally running from July through June but sometimes as late as from
October through September.
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Weekly are
welcome. For the text, they may be directed to of the Office of
Economic Research, Code 143, Extension 5208; for the Economic Indicators, to
of OER, Extension 5943.
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-F 1 ' 00457A001100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
SECRET
Grain Imports
Million Tons
29 19 18 28 21
Percent of World Grain Trade
harvesting the winter crop in some areas because of heavy June rainfall. Following
last month's on-the-spot check, the USDA winter grain team reported extensive
lodging-the flattening of grain stalks by rain and wind-in the eastern Ukraine.
Without a period of dryer weather, the quality of the winter grain crop could be
reduced. Storing grain with a high moisture content usually results in molding, and
flour from such grain is generally unsuitable for breadmaking.
Early July conditions in the spring grain areas are moderately better than they
were for last year's record crop, but a 3- to 4-percent reduction in the area sown to
spring grains makes the likelihood of another record harvest remote. During June
and early July, unusually heavy rains fell throughout the European USSR from the
Baltics to the North Caucasus. Apart from some localized flooding in the Ukraine,
we expect the overall impact on this year's crop to be highly favorable. In the major
spring grain areas east of the Ural mountains, spring soil moisture was above normal
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA 2DP79B00457A001100070001-4
SECRET 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CC fflf79B00457AO01100070001-4
and significantly better than prevailing conditions last year. Parts of northern
Kazakhstan experienced a reduction in surface soil moisture in early May; conditions
improved markedly as a result of numerous local showers during June. West Siberia
has enjoyed favorable crop conditions since early spring. A short-range weather
forecast indicates a stationary weather system will provide adequate rainfall in most
of the spring grain areas through the third week of July, mostly from late afternoon
showers.
To achieve the record grain crop now forecast, adequate soil moisture must be
maintained in the drought-prone spring grain area. With 95 percent of the total grain
yet unharvested and with two-thirds of the spring grain yet to ripen, the final
outcome is far from certain. Weather and crop conditions from now to late
harvesting in September will have substantial impact on the size and quality of the
crop.
The USSR is likely to purchase 10 to 12 million tons of grain for delivery in MY
1978, compared with about 12 million tons the previous year. Trade sources report
that in late June Moscow contracted for 6 million tons of optional origin wheat and
corn for delivery beginning this fall. Some of this amount no doubt will be US grain.
Under the long-term US-USSR grain agreement, the Soviets must buy at least 6
million tons from the United States, evenly divided between wheat and corn. In
addition, the Soviets reportedly are interested in buying about 2 million tons of
soybeans in MY 1978, compared with the 1.5 to 2 million tons that will be delivered
in MY 1977.
Eastern Europe
We currently project grain production in calendar year 1977 at 92 to 93 million
tons for Eastern Europe, a new record slightly above our estimate of 90 to 91
million tons for last year. The 1977 projection is roughly the same as the most
recent USDA estimate. This year's wheat harvest is estimated at 33 to 34 million
tons, about 1 million tons less than last year.
As in the USSR, conditions for winter grains have been good. Although low
temperatures and heavy rains interrupted spring sowing in Poland, East Germany,
Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, conditions for most spring crops are also favorable. A
severe freeze in the northern countries in April evidently did little damage to grain
crops; potatoes-an important fodder crop that often affects demand for grain-were
3
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIARDMB00457AO01100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
SECRET
reported damaged in Poland. Prior to the start of the harvest in mid-June, wheat and
barley were reported in good condition; corn was also doing well in most countries.
Because corn is sensitive to late summer drought, a common occurrence in Eastern
Europe, continued good weather is critical for record output.
If these crop conditions continue, grain imports in MY 1978 should fall short
of the previous year's record 14.5 million tons. Increased output of grain and fodder
crops and a reduction in livestock numbers in the major grain importing
countries--Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland-have substantially reduced
import requirements. Yet the level of Polish purchases poses a major uncertainty. If
Warsaw takes advantage of present low world prices, we foresee purchases by
Eastern Europe of 12 to 13 million tons. Traditionally, about 8 to 9 million tons of
this amount would be bought in the West. If Polish officials consider hard currency
shortages to be too severe to allow stock rebuilding, East European purchases would
total perhaps 10 million tons, the average for marketing years 1972-76. Soybean
meal imports are not likely to exceed MY 1977's 3.4 million tons because of
reduced herds.
The outlook for Chinese grain production is less clear. Although rain since
April has brought some improvement in growing conditions in most areas, drought
continues to threaten selected crops. We estimate that the winter wheat harvest will
be down about 10 percent, or 5 million tons, from last year's record crop. Western
observers have reported good wheat stands in irrigated areas but reduced yields in
nonirrigated areas. In those areas hardest hit, wheat fields have been plowed under
and planted to corn.
Prospects for the summer harvest, mostly early rice, are considered good by the
Chinese. Much of the reporting has a tone of guarded optimism; the impression given
is that early rice--20 percent of total grain output-will do about as well as last year.
It is still too early to make predictions about the late harvest. As usual, local
flooding has occurred in south-central China and on the east coast. Continued dry
weather in the northeast may have some adverse effect on spring wheat,
miscellaneous grains, and soybeans.
Since November 1976 the PRC has bought 11.5 million tons of wheat-5.5
from Australia, 5.3 from Canada, and 0.7 from Argentina. The bulk of these
purchases, almost 9 million tons, will be shipped in MY 1978. Chinese buying
4
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : Cl B 79B00457AO01100070001-414 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIIP-r79B00457A001100070001-4
reflects the lower winter wheat harvest as well as a mediocre late grain harvest in
1976. In addition, the Chinese are probably taking advantage of low world prices to
replenish grain stocks drawn down in 1975-76 to conserve foreign exchange. So far
the Chinese have bought 390,000 tons of soybeans-of optional origin, probably
from Brazil-for delivery during 1977. We do not expect the Chinese to make ad-
ditional large grain purchases for delivery in MY 1978. Grain-handling capacity at
Chinese ports-estimated at 8 to 10 million tons annually-appears to be booked
solid through June 1978. (Secret Noforn)
EC ENLARGEMENT: THE AGRICULTURAL CONNECTION
The possible admission of Greece, Portugal, and Spain to full membership in
the European Community threatens French and Italian producers of
Mediterranean-type agricultural products with increased competition. While all three
potential members already enjoy preferential access to the EC market, full
membership would mean phasing out some important barriers. Thus, Paris and
Rome are demanding major adjustments in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
to protect their endangered farmers. US sales of citrus fruits to Europe, already
damaged by EC trade agreements with Mediterranean countries, would suffer further
reverses.
Although full integration into the Community is unlikely for a number of
years, Greece, Portugal, and Spain might receive greater preferential access to EC
agricultural markets during a transition period. Greece and Portugal already have
applied for full membership. Now that Spain, like those two countries, is moving
toward a European-styled parliamentary government, Madrid is weighing the pros
and cons of membership. For the European Community, enlargement is a matter of
stabilizing the emerging democratic societies in southern Europe. Several of the Nine
are now clearly disturbed about the economic cost of this political commitment.
The Mediterranean Regions
Among present EC members, the growing of Mediterranean products accounts
for 19 percent of farm output and is concentrated in southern France and in central
and southern Italy. The EC defines these regions as Mediterranean because fruit,
5
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RII9300457A001100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIASRf r7?B00457A001100070001-4
European Community: Mediterranean Regions
Spain
Lux.
`' Germany-
European Community (EC) Member
MEDITERRANEAN PRODUCTS
AS PERCENT
OF TOTAL OUTPUT
=OVER 80% - 60-80%:: M40-6001o
6
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CFAOWW79B00457AO01100070001-44 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RD,J?Z~@90457A001100070001-4
vegetables, olive oil, and wine make up at least 40 percent of agricultural output. In
four regions-Languedoc in France and Liguria, Puglia, and Sicilia in
Italy-Mediterranean products are practically the only agricultural items produced.
In Languedoc, wine alone accounts for 70 percent of total agricultural output.
The EC Mediterranean regions tend to be economically backward. In many
cases, per capita income is one-third below the national average. These areas
generally have a limited industrial base, small and inefficient farms, and poorly
developed marketing institutions. With few local job alternatives, farmers in the
Mediterranean regions are leaving agriculture at only half the rate of farmers in
northern areas.
European Community and Potential Members: Production
of Selected Mediterranean Products, 1975
European
Community
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Oranges
1,554
520
132
1,946
Tangerines and
mandarin
oranges
380
36
0
628
Lemons and
limes
840
193
25
295
Tomatoes
4,866
1,826
839
2,309
Wine
14,906
470
913
3,150
Olive oil
602
200
50
470
Historically, CAP support for Mediterranean products has been minimal or
nonexistent. Fruits and vegetables receive only 2 percent of EC funds for market
support, although they account for 12 percent of EC farm output.
Government-operated intervention agencies, which buy up surplus northern
commodities, do not exist for most Mediterranean products. Community price
support for Mediterranean products generally is limited to reimbursing farm
cooperatives for withdrawing surpluses from the market. This system does not
function effectively because producer cooperatives handle only a fraction of the
Mediterranean produce. Even when the system does place an effective floor under
~7R F
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP 96voT 457A001100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-R P k 00457AO01100070001-4
prices, Mediterranean farmers are less well off than their northern counterparts
because support prices exceed world prices by smaller margins for their products
than those for cereals, dairy products, and meat.
A number of Mediterranean commodities do not even receive the full benefit of
CAP's preference system. For northern farm products, the variable import levy
system guarantees that goods from outside the Community will not be priced below
those grown domestically. For Mediterranean products, a reference price system is
supposed to set minimum import prices. Loopholes in the system, however, enable
some third-country farm commodities to sell in the Community at prices below
those of domestic output. This leaves border protection primarily to the Common
External Tariff, which does not vary with market conditions. Some products,
notably quality wines, are further protected by import quotas.
Impact of Enlargement on EC Agriculture
France and Italy in particular fear increased competition from Greece,
Portugal, and Spain once trade barriers come down. Largely reflecting lower farm
labor costs, domestic agricultural prices in the three potential members are
considerably below those in EC countries-in some cases by as much as 40 percent.
Spain looms as the greatest threat to EC farmers. Unlike its Community
competitors, Spain is able to make use of inexpensive sea transport, which adds
to its labor cost advantage. In some cases, Spanish produce also benefits from the
taste preferences of northern consumers. For example, EC customers prefer
thin-skinned orange-colored Spanish oranges to Italian blood oranges.
Rome has the most reason to worry because Mediterranean products account
for almost half of Italian farm output. Even with some trade barriers, Italian farmers
experience difficulty competing in the European Community against citrus products
from Spain and other nonmembers. Enlargement would increase their problems,
even in the home market. Producers of wine, particularly in the lower range of
quality, also are apprehensive.
For France, the impact of enlargement would be most severe on wine, which
accounts for 43 percent of French Mediterranean production. A flood of
inexpensive Spanish and Portuguese wine would imperil the livelihood of many
French grape growers who already must compete with Italian wine made cheap by
successive lira devaluations. The 1974-75 Franco-Italian wire war, which severely
8
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDPT457A001100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
SECRE
strained EC cohesion, was only resolved through costly subsidies for upgrading
Italian wine production and for distilling large amounts of wine into industrial
alcohol. While EC wine stocks have declined from the 1974 peak, the Community
still has a "wine lake" of more than 2 billion gallons.
CAP Reform and Enlargement
Only recently have France and Italy begun to . )cus on the damage that
enlargement could inflict on their agricultural sectors. Although still politically
committed to enlargement, both want the CAP to guarantee that their farmers will
European Community Imports of Selected
Mediterranean Products, 1975
Unit of
Measure
Citrus
Olive
Oil
Tomatoes
Wine
Imports from
Total
Thousand dollars
983,108
690,147
687,216
1,231,745
France
Thousand dollars
2,203
24,598
2,091
420,986
Percent'
3
0
1
5
Italy
Thousand dollars
58,919
14,160
41,684
261,602
Percent'
7
1
0
14
Greece
Thousand dollars
10,880
24,242
1,065
4,078
Percent'
2
9
0
7
Portugal
Thousand dollars
39
1,000
0
75,839
Percent'
0
0
0
6
Spain
Thousand dollars
386,978
55,181
63,157
120,777
Percent'
50
15
8
6
United States
Thousand dollars
48,932
1,263
0
17
Percent'
1
483
0
0
Other4
Thousand dollars
475,157
569,703
579,219
348,446
' Share of domestic output by volume.
2 Most exports are reexports of non-EC olive oil. Exports to the EC exceed production by a factor of 4.
3The United States produces little olive oil. US imports vastly exceed exports.
4Primarily Mediterranean Basin countries.
be protected when the Community is enlarged. Greek accession negotiations-the
only ones yet in progress-have already bogged down because the French in
particular want agreement among the Nine on restructuring CAP for Mediterranean
products. Paris and Rome have indicated they will not permit the Community to
9
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDPf? b 57A001100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
SECRET
make agricultural concessions to Greece that might create costly precedents for
dealing with Portugal and Spain.
Anticipating the difficulties enlargement will pose for French and Italian
agriculture, the EC Commission is contemplating a number of minor CAP
adjustments aimed at changing the output mix of its Mediterranean regions and
improving the marketing of Mediterranean goods within the Community. Programs
include aids to olive growers to convert olive groves from oil-producing olives to
eating olives and incentives to convert vineyards on flat ground in the Languedoc
region to corn production. Proposals under consideration include providing funds to
help build irrigation systems and to set up producer cooperatives.
Since the Commission proposals do not adequately deal with demands for
reform voiced by France and Italy, these countries are likely to push for specific
reform measures, probably including:
? A support price system for Mediterranean products that relies on
government purchases of excess output.
? Higher trade barriers against Mediterranean products imported from
third countries.
? Increased spending to improve the production and marketing structure
of the EC's Mediterranean regions.
These proposals would likely generate tensions among the Nine and slow down
the accession process. If Mediterranean products are treated the same as northern
ones, CAP expenses will grow rapidly. Guaranteed prices well above world levels
would stimulate output in France and Italy as well as in new member states--the
"butter mountain" could be joined by a mountain of citrus fruit, and the "wine
lake" may evolve into the world's fifth ocean.
Additional money will be needed to fund any new programs for structural
improvement of Mediterranean agriculture. West Germany, which contributes 84
percent of the CAP budget on a net basis, already considers CAP expenses
burdensome. Moreover, a recent West German study concluded that inclusion of the
three potential members in 1976 would have raised CAP costs by almost 20 percent,
even without new programs. Nevertheless, Bonn remains politically desirous of
enlarging the EC. Though hoping to avoid CAP excesses, the FRG will have to bear
the brunt of the financial burden of enlargement.
10
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RU'00457A001100070001t4 7uly 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : ClA-AR ff9B00457A001100070001-4
CAP changes being urged by Italy and France in conjunction with the accession
of new members would hurt EC consumers by pushing up retail prices for wine,
tomatoes, oranges, and other items. Raising barriers against imports from
nonmember Mediterranean countries* also would increase consumer prices and
would raise troublesome renegotiation problems. During the past year, the signed
trade agreements with these suppliers reduced tariffs on their agricultural exports to
the Community by 40 to 80 percent.
CAP Reform and Third Countries
If CAP changes are pushed through, the remaining nonmember Mediterranean
countries would see their preferential access to EC markets reduced. In any case, the
acceding countries will more than likely boost EC self-sufficiency in a number of
Mediterranean products above 100 percent. For those Mediterranean products in
which the Community still would not be self-sufficient, the application of
Community preferences to Mediterranean products would stimulate domestic
production and cut into markets now held by third countries.
EC enlargement almost certainly would reduce US exports of fruits and
vegetables to the Community. US citrus growers' attempts to expand their small
share of the Community market would be threatened if EC market support measures
were strengthened. US citrus exports to the Community almost doubled in 1975 but
growth fell off sharply in 1976 after the EC's preferential trade agreements with a
number of Mediterranean countries went into effect. For all of 1976, US citrus
exports to the EC amounted to $54 million, or 29 percent of total US citrus
exports. (Unclassified)
BRAZIL: OUTLOOK FOR THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS,
INFLATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Brazil's military government has been enforcing austere economic policies to
cope with a huge foreign financial gap* and severe inflation. Prospects are good for a
*Algeria, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey.
*This article is the fifth in a series on the foreign financial gap faced by individual LDCs. In these articles,
financial gap is defined as the current account deficit plus amortization of medium- and long-term debt; shifts in
short-term capital are not included. Previous articles have covered Mexico, the Philippines, South Korea, and
Argentina.
11
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RD09966457A001100070001-414 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11: CIA-RDPC~C 90457A001100070001-4
return to a more comfortable payments position and strong economic growth in the
next year or so.
Although the government reacted slowly to signs of growing economic
imbalance in 1973-75, rapidly rising foreign debt and accelerating inflation finally
forced it to adopt. stringent monetary, fiscal, and wage policies in early 1976.
Continuation of tight policies and strong export growth should preserve Brazil's
foreign creditworthiness and allow a faster economic pace in 1978-80. Progress
against inflation is likely-with some hope that the current annual rate of nearly 50
percent may be halved over the next 12 months-but careful management of
domestic expenditure will be required to keep it under control.
Dimensions of Economic Imbalance
In 1968-73., Brazil achieved one of the world's highest economic growth rates
while containing inflation and holding the current account deficit to readily
financable levels. This era faded in 1973, when growth of domestic demand became
excessive, boosting both the price level and demand for imports. Soaring oil and
other import prices added to inflationary pressures the following year and
accelerated the rise in the import bill; at the same time the world recession began to
slow export growth. A quadrupling in the current account deficit pushed the foreign
financial gap to $9 billion in 1974, while inflation jumped from 16 percent to 35
percent. Since then, import controls and a marked pickup in export earnings held
the financial gap roughly constant through 1976 despite the climb in debt service
payments. Inflation worsened, however, reaching 46 percent last year.
Because Brazil has had to cover its tremendous financial gap mainly by
borrowing abroad, total foreign debt rose from $14 billion at yearend 1973 to $34
billion at yearend 1976. Debt service payments climbed even faster than export
earnings; the debt service ratio rose in 1975 and 1976 after declining in the previous
two years.
The rapid accumulation of foreign debt, higher debt service ratios, lower
foreign reserves relative to imports, and resurgent domestic inflation combined to
dampen Brazil's credit rating. Both the government and private Brazilian borrowers
are paying a greater premium over London interbank rates than a few years ago.
Brazil nonetheless retains adequate access to foreign financing, largely because of its
outstanding economic growth record and long-term growth prospects. During first
half 1977, Brazil remained the largest LDC borrower on the Eurodollar market.
12
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RD d0457A001100070001-44 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDPZ9B00457A001100070001-4
SECR
Brazil: Foreign Financial Gap
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977'
Exports, f.o.b.
6,199
7,951
8,670
10,130
13,500
Imports, f.o.b.
6,192
12,641
12,169
12,277
12,300
Net services
-1,695
-2,432
-3,213
-3,915
-4,500
Current account deficit
-1,688
-7,122
-6,712
-6,062
-3,300
Debt amortization
-2,063
-1,920
-2,120
-2,888
-3,800
Financial gap
.3,751
-9,042
-8,832
-8,950
-7,100
Medium- and long-term
capital inflows
5,435
7,778
7,564
8,931
7,400
Direct private
investment
940
887
895
1,010
1,100
Official lending agencies
528
979
907
768
700
Private foreign credit
3,967
5,912
5,762
7,153
5,600
Net short-term capital
and errors and omissions
549
117
39
2,526
-300
Change in reserves
2,233
-1,147
-1,229
2,507
0
Other financial items:
External debt at yearend
(including short-term)
14,023
19,998
25,521
34,090
37,390
The Effort To Restore Equilibrium
Brazilian policymakers, reluctant to admit that growth rates of the "economic
miracle" years could not be sustained, were slow to react to the signs of growing
economic dislocation. Not until late 1974 were direct controls imposed to check rap-
idly rising imports. In 1975 these controls were broadened and strengthened; the
government also launched an extensive program to accelerate domestic output of the
fuels, raw materials, intermediate goods, and capital equipment that make up 90
percent of imports. For more than 30 months imports have remained stable at
annual rates just over $12 billion, despite the rise in import prices over the period
and annual GDP growth averaging 6 percent.
13
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDPA657A001100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
SECRET
Brasilia's success in restraining imports has heightened in lation. The step-up in
inflation in 1973 occurred primarily because of accelerating investment spending.
While direct controls restrained price increases for a time, they were relaxed early in
BRAZIL: Inflation Rates
PERCENT (seasonally adjusted at an annual rate)
100
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
Source: Composite official index, including the nation-wide wholesale price index,
the Rio de Janeiro cost-of-living index, and the Rio de Janeiro construction cost index.
1974 and prices rose abruptly. By midyear, prices came under better control as
soaring foreign payments cut effective demand for domestic goods. The current
account deficit rose from 2.5 percent of GDP in 1973 to more than 8 percent in
1974. Inflation then remained at lower rates through the early months of 1975,
after which it again gained momentum as the investment rate combined to rise while
the current account deficit abated.
It was not until the beginning of 1976 that Brasilia made a concerted effort to
contain inflation. Since then, monetary policy has been tightened, and consumer
14
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-F'OP?9800457A0011000700011-47uly 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-Ob*9b00457A001100070001-4
credit has been restricted. About midyear, wage guidelines were firmed up, and real
wages now appear to be declining. Late in 1976, public sector investment targets
were cut sharply.
The Painful Adjustment in 1977
As a result of these measures, the domestic economy is experiencing its most
difficult year in more than a decade. Retail sales are down from a year ago,
unemployment is rising, and business failures are on the increase. Even so,
substitution of domestic products for imports, strong export demand, good crops,
and moderately higher investment will permit a 4 to 5 percent growth in real GDP,
compared with 8.7 percent in 1976. If GDP simply held at the estimated fourth
quarter 1976 level, year-over-year growth would measure roughly 4 percent.
Despite the economic slowdown, inflation has continued unabated and is
becoming the focus of growing public discontent. The price rise probably will
average 40 percent this year, down but little from last year. Last year's price
increases, reinforced by Brazil's indexing system, continue to push up costs. Price
pressures also stem from the continuing introduction of high-cost domestic
substitutes for imported goods. Finally some foodstuffs are in short supply
following the second poor year for several basic crops.
While direct controls and weak demand continue to limit imports, export
receipts are soaring. Brazil proably will achieve a trade surplus of at least $1 billion
this year, the highest recorded in the past 30 years. Propelled chiefly by high coffee
prices, exports may increase by as much as 40 percent in 1977. Soybean and cocoa
prices also are up considerably from last year, and manufactured exports are doing
well as Brazilian firms turn to foreign markets to compensate for sluggish domestic
sales.
The trade surplus will cut Brazil's current account deficit nearly in half in
1977, and the financial gap should narrow by almost $2 billion. Net borrowing
requirements (somewhat more than $2 billion) will be the lowest since 1973. Rising
interest and amortization payments nevertheless will hold the debt service ratio near
the 44-percent level of 1976.
The Longer Outlook
Brazilian policymakers can be expected to shift toward expansionary measures
as quickly as inflation and the financial gap are reduced to acceptable levels. The
15
SECRET 14 July 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : Cl - 79B00457AO01100070001-4
current inflation target appears to be a 25-percent annual rate, a goal that could be
reached by early 1978. Brasilia will then step up public sector investment and tone
down austerity measures, particularly if strong export growth continues. A
BRAZIL: Current Account Balances at Various GDP Growth Rates
CASE A CASE B
15% Annual Export Growth 20% Annual Export Growth
BILLION US $
Annual GDP Growth Rates
Annu?ll GDP Growth Rates
-10, , 1 , I __j
1977 1978 1979 1980 1977 1978 1979 1980
softening world coffee market may delay Brasilia's ability to boost imports,
however, requiring the retention of anti-inflation measures. The Geisel government's
weakening political base and its desire to return to more rapid economic growth will
remain strong arguments for easing restrictive policies.
Despite an uncertain outlook for exports next year, a reasonable annual growth
rate for the whole period through 1980 would fall in the 15- to 20-percent range.
The current retreat of coffee prices from recent peak levels will be moderated by
continued tightness in world coffee supplies; another Brazilian frost would send the
market into a new period of strong price advance. While Brazil's reserve coffee
SECRET 1 Jiily 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIAEF2MT'9B00457A001100070001-4
stocks are now badly depleted,
existing stocks probably could
cover one more bad harvest with
only a moderate reduction in ex-
port volume.
BRAZIL:
Imports as a Share of GDP
PERCENT
17 r
Once controls are relaxed,
imports probably will pick up 15
markedly over the next few years 1968-74 Trend
because of a renewal of rapid 14
economic growth and the need to
rebuild working inventories, badly 13
depleted since 1974. Even with
continued import substitution, im- 12
ports are again likely to rise some-
what faster than GDP for a few 11
years at least. In the 1968-73
10
boom years, imports grew nearly
twice as fast as the economy,
rising from about 7 percent of g
GDP in 1967 to 11 percent in
e
1973. The import to GDP ratio
increased sharply in 1974, to 13.4
percent, as surplus stocks accumu-
lated; the subsequent drop to 11
percent by 1976 was partly due to
the working off of these excess
inventories. The import ratio now
Actual Imports
as a Share of GDP
6 "LI I I I I I I I I I I
1968 70 72 74 76 78 80
appears to be excessively depressed both in terms of its trend over the past decade
and by the standards of almost all other countries. We estimate that the import to
GDP ratio will edge back up to 12 percent by 1980.
Debt service payments should increase more slowly than exports over the next
few years. The growth of interest payments will be fairly moderate because an
improved trade balance should slow the growth of total debt. While amortization
payments are accelerating because of the shorter average term of recent loans and
the expiration of grace periods, the amortization schedule indicates that debt
repayments will rise somewhat more slowly than exports. The debt service burden
would worsen considerably, however, if interest rates increase.
17
SECRET 14 July 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIAERW79B00457A001100070001-4
Three-fourths of Brazil's debt has been borrowed at variable interest rates;
Brazilian bankers have estimated that, at current debt levels, an increase of 2
percentage points in money market rates would add about $500 million to annual
interest payments abroad.
Given the above projections, we estimate that the current account deficit will
return to the $6 billion to $7 billion level by 1980, while the financial gap will reach
$10 billion to $12 billion. Nevertheless, Brazil's creditworthiness should improve
over the next three years. Debt service payments will be moderately lower and net
borrowing requirements much lower relative to exports than in 1976. Partly
offsetting this improvement, however, is an implied drop in foreign reserves as a
share of annual imports, from one-half at the close of 1976 to one-fourth in 1980.
The expected export growth and net borrowing abroad in 1978-80 should
provide enough imports to support annual real economic growth in the 7- to
10-percent range. Given the rising trend of Brazil's investment rate during the 1970s
and the heavy investments needed to carry out large, capital-intensive import
substitution programs, economic growth at the lower end of this range would
require an investment rate at least equal to the present 26 percent of GDP. If' Brasilia
tries to push growth toward the 10-percent level, the required investment rate would
mount. Meanwhile, the expected current account deficits through 1980 imply a
declining inflow of foreign funds relative to GDP. To finance an adequate
investment rate without increased inflationary pressures, Brasilia will need to
increase domestic savings through firm wage, consumer credit, and fiscal policies
over the next few years.
Brazil's military regime is capable of meeting this challenge, even though its
power to sustain unpopular economic policies has lessened. The regime is aging.
Recent economic problems--inflation in particular-have eroded its prestige.
Moreover, the regime must choose a successor to President Geisel within the next 18
months, a process that could further weaken its ability to cope with economic
problems. (Unclassified)
With average tea prices on the London auction currently more than double the
1976 average of 70 cents per pound, world tea producers will realize record export
earnings of more than $1.4 billion in 1977-up from an estimated $900 million in
S~C188
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP39B00457A001100070001-414 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CjA6R79B00457A001100070001-4
1976. This sudden windfall has cooled exporter support for an international tea
agreement and probably has slowed prospects for discussions later this year.
Price Movements and Export Volume
Spurred by the phenomenal rise in coffee prices, tea prices rose in second
quarter 1976 before leveling off as export volume increased. Prices then spurted to a
record average of $1.85 per pound in April 1977 in response to a further upsurge in
World Tea and Coffee Prices
o per pound, monthly average
350 r
demand. Even though tea prices have dropped about 17 percent since reaching the
April peak, they have averaged $1.35 per pound in 1977-nearly 2.5 times the
1965-75 average.
Demand for tea picked up considerably during the past year as consumers
switched from higher priced coffee. Import volume in 1976 in the United Kingdom
and the United States-the world's two largest importers-was up 3 percent and 6
percent, respectively. Consumption in the United Kingdom reversed a long
downward trend, while the consumption increase in the United States was greater
than the long-term growth rate. Import figures for the first four months of 1977
indicate an even greater increase in tea consumption in both countries. Part of the
upswing in import demand has reflected stockpiling by blenders and consumers in
anticipation of even higher prices.
19
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : 6~791300457A001100070001-44 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIAS EPB00457AO01100070001-4
World tea production in 1977 is estimated by the USDA at a record 1.35
million tons. Thisfigure-up 3.1 percent over last year-does not include production
in China, where the 1973-75 annual average output was 320,000 tons. Although
global production is up, exports may not increase much since most major producing
countries are themselves large consumers. India, the largest producer and consumer
of tea, has imposed export taxes to gain revenue and hold. down domestic prices.
India also recently announced that it will limit 1977 exports to 225,000 tons-6
percent below 1976 levels-in a further effort to control domestic prices. As a result,
internal tea prices in India have risen only
35 percent since December.
Prospects for a sudden upsurge in
world production are not good. New tea
trees require about three years to reach
production. We expect demand for tea to
remain strong; tea is still a relative bargain
compared with coffee. In addition to its
lower price per pound-$1.55 compared
with $2.65 for coffee-a pound of black
tea yields 200 cups while a pound of
roasted, ground coffee makes 50 cups.
Further, some consumers who have
,
p
,
realize a substantial gain in tea earnings as
a result of an expected increase in pro-
duction. Other African and South Ameri-
can producers will benefit mainly from
the price increase rather than increased
export volume.
Effect on Tea Negotiations
Tea: Relative Share
of World Production
and Exports
1970-75
Percent of Total
Production
Exports
Total
76
63
India
31
27
PRC
21
8
Sri Lanka
13
26
Japan
6
Negl
USSR
5
2
switched from coffee to tea during the coffee-price runup are likely to continue to
drink tea even after the price of coffee becomes more favorable.
The major tea exporters, India and Sri Lanka, are the main beneficiaries of the
price spurt. These two countries, which account for more than 50 percent of world
tea exports, are expected to earn almost
$900 million from tea exports in 1977. Tea: Comparison of Country
will Export Earnings
Kenya
the largest African
roducer
Expanded earnings from tea exports
and current high prices have taken the
Million $
1975
1976
19771
""'a
.oJ.v
L/V.V
)UV
Sri Lanka
275.0
247.2
360
Kenya
61.7
75.6
120
Malawi
24.0
29.0
43
Tanzania
18.0
16.0
24
Uganda
16.3
10.6
12
'Estimate.
20
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CI1e 9P79B00457A001100070001-414 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : %1 791300457A001100070001-4
edge off producers' desires for an international tea agreement. At an FAO meeting
on tea held in London last February, the major impetus for a tea agreement came
from the United Kingdom. Tea producing countries did not take an active interest in
an agreement. A confrontation over quotas between the traditional producers (Sri
Lanka and India) and the newer producers in Africa (such as Kenya) had been
expected, but the absence of conflict gave the impression that producers were
satisfied by their generally improved market position.
A preparatory meeting on a tea agreement is scheduled for the fall of this year
under UNCTAD sponsorship. Prior to this meeting, tea producers will hold a
separate meeting to determine a common position. A similar February meeting met
with little success. If price and earning prospects continue to be as favorable as we
expect, producers will probably remain unenthusiastic about a tea agreement.
(Unclassified)
Publications of Interest*
Prospects for Soviet Oil Production: A Supplemental Analysis
(ER 77-10425, July 1977, Unclassified)
This publication discusses many of the factors underlying Soviet oil production
prospects for the next 10 years.
Soviet Economic Problems and Prospects
(ER 77-10436, July 1977, Secret)
This report examines recent trends in the Soviet economy and prospects up to
the mid-1980s. It concludes that the outlook for the Soviet economy over the next
five to 10 years is more bleak and the prospects for policy choices more uncertain
than at any time since Stalin's death.
*Copies of these publications may be ordered by calling Code 143, Extension 5203.
21
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-*[5f9B00457A001100070001-4 14 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
SECRET
Jamaica: Current Economic Situation and Implications
for US Interests
(ER 77-10433, July 1977, Confidential)
This publication reviews the performance of the Jamaican economy over the
past few years. It assesses the impact of severe foreign payments problems in 1977
and beyond. The implications of economic issues for domestic politics and for US
interests also are examined.
22
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIAERDP791300457A001100070001-414 July 1977
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Prepared by
The Office of Economic Research
ER El 77-028
14 July 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document
directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar
CIA publications on a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
Project subscription service may purchase reproductions of specific
publications on an individual basis from:
Photoduplication Service
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
1. The Economic Indicators provide up-to-date information on changes in
the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-Communist
developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators are updated
from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the results are made available
to the reader weeks-or sometimes months-before receipt of official statistical
publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators will be published quarterly. The
most recent data of publication is 20 April 1977. Comments and queries regarding the
Economic Indicators are welcomed.
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
United States
-120
1973 AVERAGE 120
West Germany
130
120
JAN APR JUL P CT JA P1OC J R UL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1972A proved 1973 fease 019714 bI Dgh 1 %457A00110J0JgV1-4 1977
A-2
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
United Kingdom
11O
%190 -
I k/
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1972 1973 1974
Percent AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
from
LATEST Previous 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month 1970 Earlier Earlierl
United States MAY 77 1.1 3.6
Japan MAY 77 -2.0 3.9
West Germany AAY 77 -1.7 1.9
Percent AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
from
LATEST Previous 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month 1970 Earlier Earlierl
6.3 11.4 i United Kingdom APR 77 -0.8 0.7 1.5 2.1
4.3 6.1 Italy MAY 77 4.7 3.9 6.3 -10.5
21 -2.3 ,. 3 Canada APR 77 0.3 3.9 1.9 3.8
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1975 1976 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
lAverage for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
A-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE
United States
Japan
West Germany
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
A-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
United Kingdom
6
Italy (quarterly)
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT' JAN APR JUL OCT
1972 1973
1974 1975 1976 1977
THOUSANDS OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
i Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
United States
JUN 77
6,962
7,171
7,064
United Kingdom
JUN 77
1,353
1,261
1,321
Japan
APR 77
1,020
1,090
1,000
Italy
76 IV
777
699
776
West Germany
JUN 77
1,034
1,051
993
Canada
MAY 77
841
731
829
France
MAY 77
1,097
953
972
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown. for Japan, Italy and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-77, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates.
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-Rp?79B00457A001100070001-4
 ~y F ase 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
DOM N 1 1 ES' INDEX: 1970=100
Japan
inn
France
225
200
1972 1973
1Wholesale price indexes cover industrial goods.
1975 1976 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
A-6
West Germany
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
United Kingdom
275
250
225
Italy
300
275
250
225
200
175
260
275
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974 1975 1976 1977
Percent
Change
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Percent
Change
from
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
United States
MAY 77
0.5
8.6
7.6
9.4
United Kingdom
MAY 77
1.6
14.9
20.9
19.7
Japan
APR 77
-0.1
8.1
3.6
1.4
Italy
APR 77
0.7
16.1
19.8
13.5
k r F
i-
1J.t
1:3.J
i-
West Germany
APR 77
0.3
Canada
MAR 77
1.8
10.3
11.2
13.8
41iir ii
v.a
l.4
..6
lu.I
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
A-7
 -s-s-? %J - -.. I _.
GNP'
11:CIA
. ------- -- Jttbet't
A014OO0
RETAIL SALES
'
70001 4
Constant Market Prices
Constant Prices
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
-
Latest
from Previous 1 Year Previous
Late;t
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier'
United States 77 I
1.3 2.9 4.1 5.2
United States
May 77
0.4
3.6
8.5
8.7
Japan 77 I
2.5 5.5 4.9 10.2
Japan
Mar 77
-0.4
10.4
3.3
15.2
West Germany 76 IV
1.8 2.5 4.5 7,3
West Germany
Apr 77
-7.5
1.5
-1.8
-3.4
France 76 IV
0 3.9 4.9 0
France
Apr 77
-7.1
--1.2
-2.1
-20.7
United Kingdom 76 IV
2.1 2.0 2.6 8.8
United Kingdom
Ma) 77
1.0
0.8
-2.2
- 11.7
Italy 76 IV
4.8 3.4 9.4 20.6
Italy
Mar 77
0.2
2.9
-0.3
16.3
Canada 76 IV
-0.6 4.8 3.4 -2.5
Canada
Mar 77
-2.2
4.4
2.1
-1.2
Seasonally adjusted.
' Seasonally adjusted.
'Average for latest 3
months compared with average for previous 3 months.
FIXED INVESTMENT'
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING'
Non-residential; constant prices
Average
Annual
Growth Rat
e Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual Growth Rate Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Change
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Earlier'
Latest
from Previous 1 Year Previous
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
United States
May 77
0.8
7.5
7.8
7.3
United States 77 I
3.4 1.6 8.3 14.3
Japan
Apr 77
-0.2
17.3
9.4
12.6
Japan 77 I
0.2 0.9 3.9 0.8
West Germany
77 I
4.0
9.6
7.7
17.1
West Germany 76 IV
3.3 1.1 5.0 13.8
France
77 I
2.3
14.1
13.9
9.5
France 75 IV
8.8 4.2 2.9 40.1
United Kingdom
Nov 76
0.3
16.0
9.0
1.8
United Kingdom 76 IV
-6.7 0.2 0.5 -24.3
Italy
Apr 77
0.3
20.5
34.9
38.2
Italy 76 IV
10.6 3.1 15.7 49.6
Canada
Mar 77
0.2
11.4
11.5
14.9
Canada 76 IV
8.5 6.8 5.1 38.7
' Hourly earnings (seasonally adjusted) for the United States, Japan, and Canada,
hourly wage
rates far others. West German and Fr
ench data refer
to the beg
inning of t
he quarter.
Seasonally adjusted.
Average for latest S
months compared with that for previous
3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATES
Percent Rate of Interest
1 Year
3 Months
1 Month
Representative rates
Latest Date
Earlier
Earlier
Earlier
United States
Commerical paper
Jun 22 5.40
5.85
4.75
5.48
Japan
Call money
Jun 24 5.63
7.00
6.50
5.25
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
Jun 22 4.23
4.10
4.69
4.31
France
Call money
Jun 24 8.75
7.50
9.38
9.00
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loans (3 months)
Jun 22 7.75
10.99
9.60
7.51
Canada
Finance paper
Jun 22 7.14
9.57
7.48
7.44
Eurodollars
Three-month deposits
Jun 22 5.80
6.14
5.24
5.98
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO011000
70001-4
 EXPO ' p nd For Release 2001/04/11: CIA-R
us $
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Month Month
Mar 77
Apr 77
Apr 77
Feb 77
May 77
Feb 77
Mar 77
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
0.8
1.7
0.8
0.4
1.9
2.9
1.2
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES
As of 8 Jul 77
Av
Annual Gro
erage
wth Rate Si
nce
P
t
Chan
e
er
Latest fr
Month
cen
om Pr
Mon
g
evious
th 1
1
970 E
Year 3
arlier E
Months
arlier
End of
B
illio
n US $ Jun 1970
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
United
States
Mar 77
2
.7
1
4.0
9.5
22.3
United
States
Apr 77
1
8.9
14.5
17.4
18.7
an
Ja
Apr 77
-7
.0
10.6
-
4.1
-
23.8
Japan
May 77
1
7.3
4.1
15.2
16.8
p
t
W
German
r 77
A
1.3
4.6
3.7
2.7
West
Germany
Apr 77
3
4.6
8.8
34.4
34.4
es
France
y
p
Feb 77
2.1
10.8
19.3
16.8
France
Mar 77
77
J
9.8
11
6
4.4
2.8
11.1
5.3
9.7
9.7
it
U
d
dom
Kin
May 77
0.1
19.9
18.7
11.0
United
Kingdom
un
.
n
e
g
l
76
Se
5.1
4.7
5.8
5.2
It
l
Feb 77
4.6
21.9
39.3
33.4
y
Ita
p
a
y
77
A
2
5
4.3
5.8
5.7
Canada
Mar
77
2.6
9.3
11.0
30.8
Canad
a
pr
.
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE'
Latest
Period
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
77 I
May 77
Apr 77
76 IV
77 I
76 IV
77 I
Converted to US dollars at the
Seasonally adjusted.
EXCHANGE RATES
Spot Rate
As of 8 Jul 77
- 4,317
120
356
-1,238
-502
-882
- 1,624
-4,317
2,237
1,185
N.A.
-502
N.A.
- 1,624
1 Year 3 Months
1970 Earlier Earlier
10.1
11.0
11.5
11.6
10.8
11.3
9.8
6.5
18.4
9.5
2.7
14.6
17.6
10.0
540
428
1,278
N.A.
-466
N.A.
-1,911
4,857
1,809
- 93
N.A.
- 36
N.A.
287
National Currency
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kinddom
Italy
Canada
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Mar 77
Apr 77
Apr 77
Feb 77
May 77
Feb 77
Mar 77
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.3
1.8
3.1
- 1.0
10.1
6.7
4.6
9.8
16.3
17.3
8.2
6.5
9.2
2.6
14.4
20.7
35.1
6.1
3.5
-7.3
-1.5
14.0
13.0
39.2
6.9
BASIC BALANCE'
Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions
Cumulative (Million US $)
Latest
Period Million US $ 1976 1975 Change
United States No longer published'
Japan May 77 -120 2,703 -888 3,591
West Germany Apr 77 -640 3,460 -2,838 6,298
France 76 IV -721 -6,843 -81 -6,761
United Kingdom 76 IV -205 -2,092 -4,171 2,079
Italy 76 III 779 -2,232 1,096 -3,329
Canada 77 1 -583 3,128 -1,052 4,180
' Converted to US dollars at the cment market rates of exchange.
I As recommended by the Advisory Committee on the Presentation of Balance of Payments
Statistics, the Department of Commerce on longer publishes a basic balance.
US $ 1 Year 3 Months
Per Unit 19 Mar 73 Earlier Earlier 24 Jun 77
Japan (yen) 0.0038
West Germany 0.4335
(Deutsche mark)
France (franc) 0.2053
United Kingdom 1.7195
(pound sterling)
Italy (lira) 0.0011
Can a dollar) 0.9438
-0.74
22.42
-6.85
-30.13
11.98
11.76
-2.31
-3.40
3.71
2.66
2.01
0.10
3.5
14.7
1.6
14.9
15.2
29.1
22.1
0.80 United States 5.04 0.10 -0. 15 - 0.41
1.40 Japan 4.70 13.71 3.34 0.57
West Germany 25.96 8.69 1.75 0.86
0.99 France -7.60 -7.17 0.75 0.31
-0.02 United Kingdom -31.09 -6.20 -0.69 -0.56
Italy -39.05 -8.81 -1.05 -0.63
-4.95 0.44 0.18 Canada -3.41 -9.40 -1.23 -0.16
- 8.73 - 0.89 - 0.03 Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries to
-- -- t't' im t of exchange rate variations among the major currencies.
i ne
431 ompe
b67 JUI-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79BOO457AO01100070001-4
UNITED STATES
1974 .............
1975 .............
1976 .............
1st Qtr ........
2d Qtr ........
3d Qtr ........
4th Qtr ........
1977
Big Other Com- -Big Other Com-
World Seven OECD OPEC' munist Other World Seven OECD OPEC' munist Other
97,908 45,884 16,870 6,690 2,258 26,206
107,191 46,941 16,180 10,768 3,421 29,881
114,997 51,298 17,607 12,552 3,935 29,605
27,360 12,184 4,159 2,751 1,144 7,122
29,695 13,383 4,527 3,113 1,036 7,636
27,437 11,944 4,114 3,103 850 7,426
30,505 13,787 4,807 3,585 905 7,421
107,997 53,332 10,912 17,256 1,078 25,419
103,414 49,807 8,818 18,371 1,253 25,165
129,565 .50,387 9,738 24,995 1,572 32,873
29,339 13,717 2,479 5,570 356 7,217
31,650 15,247 2,491 5;582 333 7,997
33,734 16,693 2,401 7,156 423 7,061
34,842 14,730 2,367 6,687 460 10,598
37,361 6,070 2,745 8,324 397 9,825
13,249 5,714 873 3,060 152 3,450
62,046 18,780 7,303 19,965 3,119 12,879
57,856 16,929 6,084 19,427 3,383 12,033
64,895 17,534 7,778 21,877 2,926 14,780
14,832 4,083 1,696 5,213 671 3,169
15,903 4,347 1,943 5,400 677 3,536
16,818 4,497 2,137 5,406 747 4,031
17,342 4,607 2,002 5,858 831 4,044
1st Qtr ........ 29,458 13,681 4,602 3,602 951 7,162
Apr ........... 10,548 4,686 1,613 1,080 352 2,817
JAPAN
1974 ............. 54,480 19,101 7,477 5,446 3,915 18,541
1975 ............. 54,822 16,567 6,091 8,406 5,283 18,475
1976 ............. 67,364 22,406 8,588 9,277 5,049 22,044
1st Qtr ........ 14,429 4,848 1,827 1,872 1,289 4,593
2d Qtr ........ 16,431 5,402 2,092 2,271 1,348 5,318
3d Qtr ........ 17,542 5,897 2,272 2,476 1,135 5,762
4th Qtr ........ 18,962 6,259 2,397 2,659 1,277 6,370
1977
1st Qtr ........ 17,911 5,848 2,449 2,459 1,409 5,746 17,452 4,717 1,845 6,246 801 3,843
Apr ........... 6,870 2,241 846 967 464 2,352 5,766 1,537 664 1,776 298 1,491
WEST GERMANY
1974 ............. 89,188 30,998 37,605 4,268 6,884 9,433 68,962 23,762 26,079 8,406 3,209 7,506
1975 ............. 90,063 28,331 36,407 6,777 9,029 9,519 74,986 27,085 27,755 8,2:28 4,167 7,751
1976 ............. 101,989 33,372 41,720 8,231 8,575 10,091 88,230 31,008 31,351 9,718 5,050 11,103
1st Qtr ........ 22,467 7,855 9,437 1,705 2,064 1,406 20,147 6,790 7,114 2,1139 1,046 3,008
2d Qtr ........ 24,570 8,147 10,019 1,832 1,771 2,801 21,571 7,478 7,778 2,222 1,127 2,966
3d Qtr ........ 26,147 8,134 10,445 2,235 2,385 2,948 21,792 ?,136 7,900 2,575 1,550 1,631
4th Qtr ........ 28,805 9,236 11,819 2,459 2,355 2,936 24,720 E,604 8,559 2,731 1,327 3,499
1977
1st Qtr ........ 27,804 9,281 11,609 2,307 2,156 2,451 24,084 8,465 8,828 2,578 1,270 2,943
FRANCE
1974 ............. 46,388 19,345 15,245 3,164 1,874 6,760 52,820 22,040 13,874 8,848 1,547 6,511
1975 ............. 53,005 19,959 15,183 4,952 3,094 9,817 54,238 23,040 14,350 9,448 1,591 5,809
1976 ............. 55,680 22,438 16,081 5,080 3,558 8,523 64,255 27,750 16,894 11,359 2,384 5,868
1st Qtr ........ 13,639 5,524 3,921 1,240 917 2,037 15,529 6.567 4,157 2,817 595 1,393
2d Qtr ........ 14,769 5,911 4,395 1,222 1,059 2,182 16,187 7,149 4,324 2,610 593 1,511
3d Qtr ........ 12,409 4,922 3,446 1,292 729 2,020 14,840 6,431 3,733 2,746 577 1,352
4th Qtr ........ 14,863 6,081 4,319 1,326 853 2,284 17,699 7,603 4,680 3,185 619 1,612
1977
Jan-Feb ........ 9,644 3,938 2,852 873 499 1,482 11,278 4,659 3,044 2,02:3 367 1,185
UNITED KINGDOM
1974 ............. 37,160 11,765 17,006 2,567 1,197 4,625 54,510 18,272 18,253 8,020 1,849 8,116
1975 ............. 41,731 12,339 16,515 4,553 1,480 6,844 53,147 18,301 18,274 6,962 1,771 7,839
1976 ............. 46,352 14,026 17,803 5,132 1,625 7,768 56,224 19,332 19,271 7,291 2,240 8,090
1st Qtr ........ 11,615 3,409 4,414 1,238 433 2,121 13,639 4,357 4,975 1,825 510 1,972
2d Qtr ........ 11,560 3,531 4,379 1,254 422 1,974 14,133 5,058 4,626 1,738 590 2,121
3d Qtr ........ 11,089 3,437 4,186 1,265 389 1,812 13,861 4,746 4,573 1,891 597 2,054
4th Qtr ........ 12,088 3,649 4,821 1,376 381 1,861 14,591 5,`':71 5,097 1,836 543 1,944
1977
1st Qtr ........ 13,150 4,008 5,145 1,516 413 2,068 15,575 5,786 5,068 1,784 514 2,423
Apr . . . . . ...... 4,427 1,264 1,754 531 152 726 5,064 1,?75 1,666 501 185 837
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CA,%
-2DP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79BOO457AO01100070001-4
Developed Countries: Direction of Trade'
(Continued)
Exports to (f.o.b.) Imports from (c.i.f.)
Big Other Com- Big Other Com-
World Seven OECD OPEC2 munist Other World Seven OECD OPEC 2 munist Other
ITALY
1974 ............. 30,261 13,796 7,681 2,427 1,721 4,636 40,977 18,003 7,216 9,313 1,944 4,501
1975 ............. 34,230 15,345 7,468 3,710 2,895 4,812 37,793 17,072 6,367 6,993 2,304 5,057
1976 ... . ......... 35,364 16,698 8,276 4,165 2,591 3,634 41,789 18,585 7,759 8,124 3,000 4,321
1st Qtr ........ 7,398 3,513 1,713 811 597 764 9,092 4,063 1,708 1,816 608 897
2d Qtr 8,705 4,157 2,040 958 623 927 10,716 4,786 1,918 2,106 744 1,162
3d Qtr 9,398 4,505 2,191 1,056 656 990 10,335 4,497 1,860 2,029 792 1,157
4th Qtr ........ 9,863 4,523 2,332 1,340 715 953 11,646 5,239 2,273 2,173 856 1,105
CANADA
1974 .............. 32,904 27,092 2,004 548 659 2,601 33,309 26,727 1,777 2,698 257 1,850
1975 ............. 32,201 26,582 1,689 700 1,153 2,077 35,435 27,887 1,621 3,174 310 2,443
1976 ............. 36,840 30,783 2,077 928 1,259 1,793 38,705 31,118 2,034 3,154 369 2,030
1st Qtr ........ 8,422 7,103 381 167 328 443 9,404 7,572 473 868 87 404
2d Qtr ........ 9,964 8,408 480 184 346 546 10,244 8,174 683 930 96 361
3d Qtr ........ 9,112 7,465 576 270 349 452 9,378 7,417 473 715 96 677
4th Qtr ........ 9,342 7,807 640 307 236 352 9,679 7,955 405 642 90 587
1977
1st Qtr ........ 9,670 8,201 524 247 231 467 10,025 8,164 406 742 90 623
1 Data ore unadjusted. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
2 Including Gabon.
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP7PPOO457AOO11OOO7OOO1-4
 A roved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
FOREIGN TRADE BILLION US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
United States
14.0
12.0
10.0
Japan
7.0
West Germany
10.0
8.0
-
-__ __. ,.... ~.... ..,.- v..i JNrv HYK JUL
1972 1973 1974
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
A-12
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
United Kingdom
4.9
4.5
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
10
395
49
843
967
45
8.4?0
4.495
21,722
18,021
20.5?0
United States
MAY 77
,
11,616
,
59,611
,
46,328
28.7%
United Kingdom
MAY 77
4,915
24,021
20,237
18.7%
Balance
-1,221
-9,768
-361
-9,407
Balance
-419
-2,299
-2,216
-83
6
231
32
360
26
243
23.30o
3,591
17,701
14,157
25.0?ro
Japan
MAY 77
,
5,135
,
25,290
,
21,680
16.7%
Italy
MAY 77
3,875
18,709
15,975
17.1%
Balance
1,096
7,069
4,563
2,507
Balance
-284
1,008
-1,817
809
West Germany
APR 77
9,460
7,647
37,390
31,097
31,597
26,069
18.3?0
19.3%
Canada
MAY 77
3,577
3,628
18,731
17,998
15,358
15,597
22.000
15.4%
Balance
1,813
6,292
5,528
764
Balance
-51
732
-240
972
5
170
25
812
23,189
11.3?0
France
MAY 77
,
5,271
,
27,022
23,867
13.2%
Balance
-101
-1,211
-677
-533
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-R& 9B00457A001100070001-4
 Ppf~i l~ ~1bj@41Sttfe 1 ff~Pj O Ag,1100070001-4
United States INDEX: JAN 1975 =100
West Germany
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974 1975n 1976 1977
Approv94.FprRQIaaset,MQU041;,1Aed Cg- ee9B00457A001100070001-4
A-14
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974 1975 1976 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
'.-,471 7-77
A-15
 Approved For a,s~ A~,(0 1 ~00 5~ MPS01-4
MONEY SUPPLY'
Average
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION'
Annual
Growth Rate
Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual
Growth Rote Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Chow
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier'
Latest
from Previous
1 Yea
3 Months
Period
Period 1970
Earlier
Earner'
Brazil
Jan 77
-3.1
35.5
28.2
49.6
Egypt
Feb 77
5.1
18.3
22.7
22.3
Brazil
76 II
0.1 11.0
10.7
0.4
India
Jan 77
1.2
12.2
18.3
19.9
India
Oct 76
0.2 4.2
6.7
-12.6
Iran
Feb 77
0.9
28.2
35.2
11.0
South Korea
Apr 77
3.5 21.8
11.8
1.0
South Korea
Mar 77
3.0
30.7
32.4
41.5
Mexico
Feb 77
3.2 5.2
-1.5
-7.4
Mexico
Jun 76
-0.3
17.0
16.6
19.6
Nigeria
76 11
2,4 18.7
60.3
9.8
Nigeria
Dec 76
5.2
35.0
49.5
43.3
Taiwan
Apr 77
-0.3 14.6
10.3
-11.0
Taiwan
Jan 77
-6.2
22.6
5.7
13.0
Seasarally adjusted.
Thailand
Jan 77
-0.4
13.1
11.0
9.4
' Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
Seasonally adjusted
.
' Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
CONSUMER PRICES
WHOLESALE
PRICES
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
AnnualGrowth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Latest
from Previous
1 year
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Brazil
Apr 77
3.3
26.6
44.4
Brazil
Apr 77
4.3
27.3
45.9
India
Jan 77
0.3
8.1
3.0
India
Jan 77
0.5
9.2
7.2
Iran
Feb 77
2.6
11.3
26.2
Iran
Feb 77
3.3
10.8
24.1
South Korea
Apr 77
0.1
14.6
9.6
South Korea
Apr 77
0.3
16.8
9.9
Mexico
May 77
0.9
14.7
31.4
Mexico
May 77
2.2
16.6
50.8
Nigera
Jan 77
4.5
15.0
13.5
Taiwan
Ap? 77
0.13
9.3
4.7
Taiwan
Apr 77
0.8
10.4
2.0
Thailand
Jar{ 77
0.7
9.9
-0.2
Thailand
Jan 77
0.6
8.3
3.6
EXPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
US $
Minion US $
Latest Month
Average
1 Year
3 Months
Annual Growth Rote Since
End of
Minion US $ Jun 1970
Earlier
Earlier
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Brazil
Feb 77
5,873
1,013
3,667
5,139
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Egypt
Feb 77
377
155
285
347
Brazil
Oct 76
-0.4
14.5
26.5
India
Feb 77
3,481
1,006
1,837
3,003
India
Jun 76
4.8
9.9
-5.9
Iran
Apr 77
10,548
208
7,951
8,965
Iran
Mar 77
0
37.6
18.7
South Korea
Mar 77
3,212
602
1,702
2,961
South Korea
76 IV
2.4
8.9
15.0
Mexico
Mar 76
1,501
695
1,479
1,533
Nigeria
May 76
-0.1
33.2
8.2
Nigeria
Apr 77
4,784
148
6,165
4,738
Taiwan
Jan 77
0.9
12.2
6.5
Taiwan
Feb 77
1,414
531
1,097
1,676
Thailand
Oct 76
12.0
13.1
6.3
Thailand
Apr 77
2,005
978
1,924
1,885
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-Rbl6T9B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
FOREIGN TRADE, f.o.b.
Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
Apr 77
Exports
-1.2
38.6
10,136
8,655
17.1%
Apr 77
Imports
-11.5
-1.1
12,291
12,169
1.0%
Apr 77
Balance
-2,155
-3,514
1,359
76 IV
Exports
-97.9
-47.8
1,354
1,546
-12.4%
76 IV
Imports
-93.5
-54.7
2,501
3,731
33.0%
76 IV
Balance
-1,147
-2,186
1,039
Dec
76
Exports
-6,3
17.3
5,036
4,299
17.1%
Dec
76
Imports
15.9
-13.4
4,498
5,477
17.9%
Dec
76
Balance
538
-1,178
1,716
Iran
Mar
77
Exports
-12.6
22.8
23,460
19,906
17.9%
Nov
76
Imports
-37.0
9.8
11,292
8,369
34.9%
Nov
76
Balance
9,978
9,974
4
South
Korea
Jan
77
Exports
16.1
40.5
7,715
4,945
56.0%
Jan
77
Imports
22.2
17.6
7,940
6,583
20.6%
Jan
77
Balance
-224
-1,638
1,414
Mexico
Apr
77
Exports
71.9
45.1
3,298
2,859
15.4%
Apr
77
Imports
-33.8
-17.6
5,770
6,327
-8.80/0
Apr
77
Balance
-2,472
3,469
997
Nigeria
Mar
77
Exports
44.9
23,0
10,527
8,885
18.5%
Aug
76
Imports
-16.3
15,1
4,283
3,095
38.4%
Aug
76
Balance
2,419
1,907
513
Taiwan
Apr
77
Exports
-43.8
3.0
8,061
5,309
51.89/0
Apr
77
Imports
-27.0
5.3
7,032
5,506
27.7%
Apr
77
Balance
1,029
- 197
1,226
Thailand
Dec
76
Exports
70.1
50.0
2,985
2,208
35.2%
Jan
77
Imports
41.9
24.2
3,923
3,276
19.80/0
Dec
76
Balance
-277
-773
496
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDPA-EY00457AO01100070001-4
 v d For Release 2001/04/11: CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
AG ftI. LTURAL PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
WHEAT
7.5 $ PER BUSHEL
CORN
5 S PER BUSHEL
SOYBEANS
15 S PER BUSHEL
'\w 7.48
1-6 JUL
1-6 JUL
0 II n n
COFFEE
400 c PER POUND
Memphis Middling 1 1/16" 2,000 Milds Washed
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 0 0 1973 1974 1975 :1976 1977 0
500 World Raw New YorE No. 11 1,500
1-6 JUL
6 JUL 7.34
28 JUN 7.55
JUN 77 7.90
JUL 76 13.21
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-R)PP.79B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
37.5 $ PER HUNDRED WEIGHT
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens,
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Tex.
SOYBEAN MEAL
$ PER TON
6 JUL 172.50
28 JUN 200.00
JUN 77 216,57
JUL 76 190.07
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 0 80
SOYBEAN OIL
$ PER METRIC TON C PER POUND
7,000 0.5
400
240
15.25
1-6 JUL 100
II
FOOD INDEX
500
11 0
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
NOTE: The food Index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIPA- P79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
COPPER WIRE BAR
C PER POUND
$ PER METRIC TON 45 C PER POUND
LME
3,000
LME
6 JUL
24.5
6 JUL
56.0
28 JUN
24
9
28 JUN
57.9
.
JUN 77
59.4
JUN 77
25.4
JUL 76
74.7
2,500
35
JUL 76
23.2
MP
6 JUL 167.0
80
60
1,000
350
5 JUL
28 JUN
JUN 77
JUL 76
$ PER METRIC TON150 250 S PER TROY OUNCE
125 225
100 200
75 175
50 150
yllV` 0 100
0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1973 1974 1975 1.976 1977
TIN
$ PEP METRIC TON 650 ~ PER POUND
S PER METRIC TON 1,000
1-6 JUL
I 200
1977
28 JUN 167.1)
JUN 77 167.0
JUL 76 172.9
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
A-20
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
E per pound
51.00
48.00
44.00
39.00
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
357.08
339.27
323.79
289.23
IRON ORE
Non-Bessemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
20.88
19.50
18.43
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ per metric ton
150.00
150.00
150.00
135.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
58.50
42.00
39.95
35.05
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
t per pound
43.00
43.00
45.00
53.50
NICKEL
Major US Producer Cathode
$ per pound
2.41
2.41
2.20
2.01
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
72.00
72.00
72.00
67.20
TUNGSTEN ORE
65 Percent W03
$ per short ton
10,525.78
9,215.11
6,613.06
5,019.88
MERCURY
NY
$ per 76 pound flask
112.00
141.19
110.00
142.73
SILVER
LME Cash
t per troy ounce
451.59
440.61
476.64
471.31
GOLD
London Afternoon Fixing Price $ per troy ounce
142.68
132.28
117.75
164.59
100 1973 1974
LUMBER INDEX6
160
Y
'Approximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the US.
3As of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite."
4Quoted on New York market.
*IS-type styrene, US export price.
('This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as "bell wethers" of US lumber construction costs.
7Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
573442 7-77
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 c +FMRT d d -
e J Eor MW ~2 1904
7
UNCLAIFIh9 CONFIDENTIAL SECRET
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS DATE
INITIALS
I
U/SR
2
C/RE 7 >
1
w,)"
3
I/WE -
4
D/ LA - -712.0
5
I / AM -
6
SA/ER
ti
ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPARE
REPLY
APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT FIILE RETURN
CONCURRENCE INFORMATION SIGNATURE
Remarks :
7. PPG/R&D -
Please annotate each paragraph as
follows:
1. Classification (including unclass.).
2. If possible, underline classified
material and indicate in the margin the
reason for classification (i.e., source,
analysis, etc.).
PLEASE TURN IN SOURCE SURVEY FORMS TO
Elaine, St/P, 4F38 IMMEDIATELY.
FOLD,HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
PPG/R&D - x-5203, 7G07
14 Jul
" "
4
rMTSM's
.
CONFIDENTIAL
SECRET
FORM NO.
237 Use previous editions
1-67
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO0110007000.1-4
EIW
.titR E:CW COPY NO
4,.5
[7,3
14
15
16-29
30 Z08
-7 -7
600 copies
S/NOFORN
Mr. Zbi iew Brzezinski Asst to the President
for National Security Affairs
Mr. A. Denis Clift, Ass't to the Vice President
for National Security Affairs
Col.Williarn Odom,c/o White House Situation
Room
O/D/DCI (1-DCI)
/D/DCI
DDI
D/OE R
DD/OER
EXO/ER
SA/ER
DA/ER(for review
Ethel, O/SA/ER
D/SA/ER
NIO Registry 7E-47
External
Ch/D/I
D/Ch/D/I
Ch/D/D
Ch/D/S.
Ch/D/C
Ch/D/U
DD.)/Ch/D/U
X27
consultant to OER/D/U 25X1A
ST/A
pprovec For F Iqa se
01/04/11: CIA-RDP719B00457A001100070001-4
cn er or o icy uppor
wry s )
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070 04
T-rra copies
ER EIW
25X1A
(2 cys)
25X1A
(2 cys)
(2 cys)
(3 cys)
(2 cys)
(2 cys)
(' cys)
(2 cys)
(2cys)
(2cys)
(7 cys)
(2 cys)
(9 cys)
(3 cys)
(2 cys)
COPY NO
IR3
3q
RECIPIENT "/ """ ----
CPS 7F?-30
CIA Operations Center Rm7F-33
313~5) 3c~ O/C/CRG
3x77
3a$,3a5
33o)33/
33 -33q
33r; 33f
337,338
339-31f/
3Na,3g3
3i/i/ 3'/S
_31/c, 3/7
3q5
3q9 3SS
3S-~) 3S17
3 _8- 3 44'
3(73o!
-37o
73
37q)373
ORPA/USSR 5G-32
ORPA/East Europe 6G-29
ORPA/West Europe 6G-32 I
ORPA/Middle East/South Asia/North America
6G-05
ORPA/Far East 5G-29
OR.PA/Latin America 6G-28
ORPA/Africa 5G-00
ORPA/International Issues 3E-58
ORPA/Methodology & Futurology 3E-58
DDI Plans & Program Staff 2F-20
OGCR 1232 Ames Bldg.
OGCR/CD/V GH-08 Hqs.
OSR 3F-50
I/WE
z/IE
I/AM
I/AM/A
U/EE
O/D/ORPA
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA2RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
(2cys)
(2cys)
(2cys)
(2 cys)
Copy No.
691
Z93
'-f o3
Approved For Release
EIW 600 copies
RECIPIENT S/NOFORN
I/JP
I/TM
D/LA
D/NE
D/SA
D/TA
D/IT
C/CH
C/IN
C/RE
u/:i./R/MC
U/I/R/RE
U/RE
u/SI
U/TD
U/SR
Ch/St/P
PPG/TB
ST/P/A (2 cys Indicators)
D/OCR 2E-60
OCR/VC/SAID 1H19
OCR/CLD/DSB 1H1129
RES/HRG 3E-58 -
OTR/II 929 C of C
 -4-
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
5-3Q,
2D-48 25X1A
(51 cys)
(4 cys)
EIW
RECIPIENT
OSI/PSED Rm 5G-19
GB-38 25X1A
4B-4402
25X1A
(55 cys),
(40 Indi
(2 cys)
25X1A
(4 cys)
4(0a
LG3- 5,7
ators)
Ch/DCD 811 Key Bldg.
DCD 915 Key Bld
DCD Message Center, 812 Key Bldg.
25X1A
STATSPEC
STATSPEC
(2 cys)
via PPG/R&D
600 copies
S/NOFORN
- Mr. James Ammerman, Treasury Rep; l-E/G;1-E/AG)
CUES/SC 3E-58
RD/CDAM Rm 636 Ames Bldg.
z.D/DPR Room 612 Ames Bldg
Approved For Release 200
 (2 cys)
25X1A
(3 cys)
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : Y~WRDP79B00457A001100070001-4
600 copies
COPY NO RECIPIENT S/NOFORN
5-33
53q
S3s
5-3 CC,
5-37
5-39
S 3( ) sw
Sit 1
Sy.z
2B1415
Roorn 4F19
D/IAS Rm. 3N119, 25X1A
Rm. 313 Key STATSPECi
O/COMPT Rm 4E-06
Finished Intelligence Project, Rm 154 PSD
6C-43 25X1A
DS&T Watch Office 6F-19
D/U 4F-40
/Economic & Scientific Division, IAS
N1191
via PPG/R&D
412 Key Bldg.
via PPG/R&D
- 5D-46
DCI/IG 2E-49 ~ 1c(I /S
25X1A
The Honorable Thomas 0. Enders,UAmb, Canada
via PPG/Registry
Archives 5 , x ~J 7 7
Annotated Copy
.ADP/COM.IREX GE-0442
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 . Approved For Release 2001/04/11 CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
5 7/
573
57/
{ 5--7s--
f7-oa? i Jv~,r
1'3 cl 7 -7
RECIPIENT
Copy No.
-S-77
5 )l' qO
Approved For Release
600 copies
S NOFORN .
O/C/CRG 7G-15
CRG/Editorial Group 7G-15
CRG/President's Dail Brief 7G-15
CRG/Western Europe Group 7G-15
CRG/T1 SSR/EE 7G-15
CRG/.Middle East/Africa Group 7G-15
CRG/Western Hemisphere Group 7G-15
CRG/.Asian Group 7G-15
CRG/OER Group 7G-?15
IC Staff, ICS BW-09
Community Hqs. Bldg.
O/C/PPG 7G-00
IC Staff 416 Ames Bld.
OSO/PAS 7B-35
C/PPG/PDB 1E4832
OCR/WH 1H-39
CIA Rep/SAC,'Offutt Air Fob A
f37se, ma a, e raska n
z,2 &/c,- Is
77
 7-7
Approved Fo jR@I'ase 2001/04/11 :,RA-RD q . 001100070001-4
Alegi
'Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approve fooMelease 2001/04/11: CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
EXTERNAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
E2 # r (,U - 7- as ~s,
/4 t9-17
(4 cys) White House Situation Room
1- The Honorable James R. Schlesinger
1- Mr. David L. Aaron
O-,33 Deputy Assistant for
National Security Affairs
1-? White House Situation Room
34 Mr. Robert Hormats
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council.
35 Mr. William G. Hyland
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
3(0
37
Mr. Robert O. Pastor
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
Mr. Malcolm Butler
Staff Member
National Security Council
Dr. Jessica Tuchman
Director
Office of Global Issues
National Security Council
Mr. Roger Molander
Staff Member
National Security Council
qD
Mr. William Quandt
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
Mr. Samuel M. Iloskinson
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
~a Ambassador Henry Owen
Room 380,EOB
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
The Honorable Charles L. Schultze
Chairman
Council of Economic Advisers
ilq Mr. Peter G. Gould
Assistant to the Chairman
Council of Economic Advisers
gcMr. Jeffrey R. Shafer
Senior Staff Economist ( International)
~~// Council of Economic Advisers
'/~ Mr. Philip Verleger
Senior Staff Economist
Council of Economic Advisers
All The Honorable William Nordhaus
Member
Council of Economic Advisers
The Honorable Lyle E. Gramley
Member
Council of Economic Advisers
OFFICE OF SPECIAL REPRESE '`TATIVE FOR
TRADE NEGOTIATIONS
Ambassador Robert S. Strauss
Special Representative
for Trade Negotiations
JO
Deputy Special Representative for Trade Negotiations
(2 cys) 7S 2 Mr. Ernest Preeg
Executive Director
Economic Policy Group
Room 425
BOB
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :2CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
1 3 The Honorable Thomas Bertram Lance
Director
Office of Management & Budget
International Situation Room
The White House
(10 cys) ,rLI-6 3 Mrs. Nanette B:Landin--for distribution within OMB
Office of Management & Budget
Room 8215
New EOB
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
DEPARTMENT OF STATE
The Honorable Warren Christopher
Deputy Secretary of State
~v S The Honorable Richard Cooper
Under Secretary for
Economic Affairs
(0(0 The Honorable Lucy Benson
Under Secretary for. Security Assistance
67 The Honorable Anthony Lake
Director
Policy Planning Staff
(o~ Dr. Luigi Einaudi
Member
Policy Planning Staff
(9
90 Mr. Thomas W.M. Smith
Director
-. Office of West African Affairs
Bureau of African Affairs
Miss Jeonne Walker
Member
Policy Planning Staff
7/ The Honorable Richard Holbrooke
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs
2c'kMr. Anthony Geber
Director
Office of Economic Policy
Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs
The Honorable Arthur A. Hartman
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of European Affairs
(2 cys)
Mr. Paul Taylor
EB/O~'/OFP
Department of State
Mr. Jack Aubert
V RC Economic Officer
PRC Desk
Room 4318, N.S.
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
-4-
 DEPARTMENT OF STATE (CONT'D)
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
77 Mr. Nicholas G. Andrews
Director
Office of Eastern European Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
7 ' Mr. Carl W. Schmidt
Deputy Director
Office of Eastern European Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
_7~ Mr. Edward M. Rowell
Acting Director
Office of Western European Affairs
Bureau of European. Affairs
50 Mr. Anthony C. Albrecht
Director
Office of OECD, European Community and
Atlantic Political-Economic Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
'3t Mr. William H. Edgar
Deputy Director
Office of Soviet Union Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
51-Mr. John J. Crowley
Office of Northern European Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
'3 The Honorable Alfred L. Atherton, Jr.
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs
Mr. Harry M. Montgomery
Economic-Commercial Officer for the Bureau
Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs
KcThe Honorable Julius Katz
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
The Honorable Paul H. Boeker
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of economic and Business Affairs
'?7 Mr. Robert J. Ryan
Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Finance and Development
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
98 Mr. Willi rn W. G:reimer
Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Trade Policy
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved F 'rCfe 6se (Y4&Pf 1A-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
Economic Analyst
Office of East-West Trade
International Trade Policy
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
( 3 cys)
9O Mr. Stephen W. Bosworth
Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Resources and Food Policy
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
qf Mr. E. Allan Wendt
Director
International Commodities
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
9a ? q q The Honorable Harold 11. Saunders
Director
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
9 Mr. Roger Kirk
( 3cys)
Deputy Director/INR
Mr. Michael E. Ely
Director
Office of Economic Research and Analysis
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
99 Mr. C. ThOmmas Thorne, Jr.
Director
Office of Research and Analysis for Africa
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
ID O ?irs. Mary Mazoli
Office of Research and Analysis for Africa
the American Republics
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
/0/ miss Eleanor Pelton
Office of Research and Analysis for
Near East and South Asia
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
10a` 1*is. Irene Jaffe
INR/RES/ER
Room 7307
/03 Mr. Robert McSwain
Office of Research & Analysis for
East Asia & Pacific,INR
/OL 'Ms. Marie Welling
Office of Research and Analysis for
East Asia and Pacific, IN R
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B6ff457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
1O~4r. Art Morrissey
Office of Strategic Affairs
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
/UfMSr. George Harris
Director
Office of Research and Analysis
for Western Europe
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
/D7 The Honorable Terence Todman
Assistant Secretary and US Coordinator
Alliance for Progress
Bureau of Inter-American Affairs
,06 i-':{.r. Richard Arellano
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Inter-American Affairs
/0? Mrs. Lauralee Peters
Chief, Finance Development and Analysis
Office of Regional Economic Policy
Bureau of Inter-American Affairs
(2 cys) Mr. Parker Wyman
/r?lu Coordinator for Mulitlateral Development Programs
I Bureau of International Organization Affairs
//2- Mr . Harry F. Young
Historical Officer
Bureau of Public Affairs
(59 cys) Hr.. Bernard Steele-----for distribution overseas
!/ 3 7/ INR/EX/CC
Department of State
(6 cys) AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
/ 7 . Mr. William G. Rhoads
Assistant Administrator
Office of Interagency Development
Agency for International Development
/7S , r. Clarence Gulick
Associate Assistant Administrator
Office of International Assistant Coordination
Bureau for Program and Policy Coordination
Agency for International Development
/ 7q ?sir. John Mellor
PPC/PDA
Agency for International Development
-7-
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
,,..---
175 Mr. Keith Jay
Policy and Program Coordination
Agency for International Development
/ 7(oMr. Thomas Miller
N/ME
Agency for International Development
77
(3 cys)
Mr. Glenn Lehmann
Director
Development Coordination Staff
Bureau for Asia
Agency for International Development
U.S. ARMS CONTROL & DISARMAMENT AGENCY
l 7 / Chief, Intelligence Staff Plans
and Analysis Bureau
U.S. Arms Control & Disarmament Agency
Room 6510A, Department of State
cr o
Mr. Byron Doenges
Senior Eccoxicmic Adviser
ACDA
Room 804
State Annex 6
Department of State
(2 cys) UNITED STATES INFORMATION AGENCY
IOP/Economic Adviser
United States Information Agency
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
~~ 3 The Honorable W. Michael Blumenthal
Secretary of the Treasury
/'cf The Honorable Robert Carswell
Deputy Secretary of the Treasury
/ ? The Honorable Anthony M. Solomon
Under Secretary Designate for Monetary Affairs
Department of Treasury
/ The Honorable C. Fred Bergsten
Assistant Secretary Designate
for International Affairs
Department of the Treasury
/ 7The Honorable Daniel H. Brill
Assistant Secretary
for Economic Policy
Department of Treasury
Mr. Gary Hufbauer
Deputy Assistant:. Secretary for Trade & Raw Materials
Policy
Department of Treasury
fly Ms. Marjory E. Searing
DIr'ector
office of East-West Economic Policy
Department of Treasury
/70 Mr. F. Lisle Widman
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
International Monetary and Investment Affairs
Department of the Treasury
j9i_lgq Mr. J. Foster Collins
(4 cys) Special- Assistant to the Secretary for National Security
Department of the Treasury
175-Mr. Robert G. Pelikan
Director
Office. of Developing Nations Finance
Department of the Treasury
f ?16 Mr. Arnold Nachma.noff
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Developing Nations
Department of the Treasury
Approved For Release 2001/04/118:-CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
11Mrs. Fran Lawson
Office of Intelligence Support
Department of the Treasury
/73 Mr. Roger E. Shields
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Research & Planning
Office of the Assistant Secretary for
International Affairs
Department of the Treasury
o~oo
Mr. Thomas D. Willett
Director
Office of Monetary Research
Department of the Treasury
Mr. Donald E. Syvrud
Director
Office of International Monetary Affairs
Department of the Treasury
?~vl Mr. Lewis Bowden
Deputy 't:o the Assistant Secretary for
Saudi. Arabian Affairs
Department of the Treasury
Rod Mrs Oscar Mackour
Deputy to the Assistant Secretary for
International Affairs
Department of the Treasury
40 3 Mr. Jon K. Hartzell
Office of Trade Policy Negotiations
Department of the Treasury
Mr. William Witherell
Director
Office of Financial Resources
Department of the Treasury
~u> Mr. John E. Ray
Director
Office of Trade Policy', & Negotiations
Department of the Treasury
Ou L Mr. Charles Schotta
office of Energy Policy Analysis
Department of the Treasury
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP979B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
Mrs. Helen Junz
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Policy
Department of the Treasury
,~Ds
Mr. Frederick L. Springborn
Director
Office of International Gold &. Foreign Exchange Operations
Department of the Treasury
c)0] Mr. Donald Curtis
Director
Office of Balance of Payments
Office of the Assistant Secretary for
International Affairs
Department of the Treasury
l(7 Mr. Peter Bridges
Executive Secretariat
Department of the Treasury
ill
Mr. Kevin Broderick
Office of the Executive Secretariat
Department of the Treasury
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A00110007000.1-4
9 cys) Mr. David N. Laux
Department of Commerce
Room 3520
1- The Honorable Juanita M. Kreps
Secretary of Commerce;
1- The Honorable Jerry J. Jasinowski
Assistant Secretary for Policy;
1- Mr. Haslam
General Counsel Designate
1-
Assistant Secretary for Administration
1- Mr. Edward Miller
Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary
Energy and Strategic Resources Policy
1- Mr. S. Stanley Katz
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of International Economic Policy & Research
1- Mr. Fred Siesseger
Director
International Commodity Staff
Office of Energy Strategic Resources Policy
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Resources and Trade Assistance
Department of Commerce
l Mr. Robert G. Shaw
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of International Commerce
Department of Commerce
a a 3 Mr. J. Michell George
Director
Office of East-West Country Affairs
Bureau of East-West Trade
DIBA-Department of Commerce
Room 4814a
a D. qMr:s . Lucy Falcone
Director
Office of Policy Development
Office of the Secretary
Department of Commerce
Ro om 4 3 2 3
-10-
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 ? cot cir. Richard Hardin
ApproveqrEqrffgtPjq }~g~a,~jt=-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
Office of International Trade Policy
Industralized Nations Division
Depaxtirent of Camierce
Room 3052
2c2 C Mr. Stephen M. Conger
Projects Manager
Major. Exports Division
BIC-Dent of Cc mr erce
Rccxn 3414
o~c -7
~4r. Alan A. Reich
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of East-West Trade
giant of Cat nerce
Rs-an 3836
Mr. Allen Lenz
Director
Office of East-West Trade Analysis
Bureau of East-West Trade
L artinent of Conrrerce
Qaal Mrs. Frances L. Hall
Director
International Trade Analysis Division
Office of International ccmercial Relations
Bureau of International Coirmerce
oZ ~d Mr. Steven V. Dunaway
Balance of Paymentd Division
Bureau of Econcxnic Analysis
Ron 407
1401 K Street, N.W.
ail
mr. Jack Bane
Associate Director
International Economics
Bureau of Econcrnic Analysis
Department of Camierce
Ran 601,1401 K Street, N.W.
3 Honorable I bent J. Blackwell
Assistant Secretary Maritime Affairs
T -par zrent of Cannarce
Mr.. Richard Garnitz
Acting Director
Office of International Marketing
Dzmestice and International Business Administration
Depaxtitf nt of C m;nerce
-10a-
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 A&r3od ft r Refeake j04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01 100070001-4
Director
Office of Economic Research
Domestic and International Business Administration
n 2039
3Mr. Daniel Norman
International Economist
Office of Market Planning
Strategic Planning Division
Bureau of International Camuerce
Department of Carn rce
a3(1
a37
Ms. Hertha Heiss
Chief,USSR Division
Office of East-West Trade Development
Bureau of East-West Trade
Mr. Louis J. Moczar
Balance of Payments Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
R o a m 408
1401 K Street, N.W.
Mr. Daniel Arill
Director
Investment Policy, Division
Office of International Finance Investment
Bureau of International Economic Policy & Research
Department of Corr rce
3 9 Mr. F. Lynn Holec
Trade Negotiations and Agreement Division
Office of International Trade Policy
Bureau of International Economic Policy & Research
Department of Commerce
oC(U Mr. Joseph Spetrini
Office of Trade Policy
Room 3034
Department of Cc=erce
-10b-
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY
STATINTL
STATINTL
STATINTL
(10 cys)
STATINTL
STATINTL
4 cisI
STATINTL
National Security Agency
National Security Agency
aN 3-
sa
a a.o Security gency
453
ass"-dE8
ate/
National Security Agency
National Security Agency
P National 5ounity Agency
National Security Agency
ENERGY RESEAICH & DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION
DIVI.SIa1 OF INTR,RNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
GERMAN.I.OWN, BLAND
2- Col. Fritz Chanetary
Head, Intelligence Section
G 1- Chief, Z Division
Lawrence Libermore Lab
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
Captain R. W. Schmitt
Director of Estimates
Office of Naval Intelligence
Room 5B667, Pnetagon
ab5"(3 cys) a6'7 The Honorable David E. McGiffert
Assistant Secretary
International Security Affairs
Department of Defense
Mr. J. Robinson West
Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Economic Affairs
International Security Affairs
Department of Defense
o~fa~f Mr. Maynard Gutman
Deputy Assistant Secretary
(European and NATO Affairs)
International Security Affairs
Department of Defense
a-70
STATINTL 77 I
Dr. Brenda Forman
Office of Policy Plans
International Security Affairs
Department of Defense
Defense Intelligence MTTT!er,DIO/ME
Room 2C-238, Pentagon
(6 cys)' Defense Intelligence Agency
7,_X77 Attn: RDS- 3C, A Bldg.
Arlington Hall Station
STATINTL 1-
Chaie -, Mi....tt?ary xpen itures Section
I-- (DIR-411-1)
1- IPAC (IC--1)
STATINTL 1.-
DIA
1- DIA/RDS-3I33 (LIB)
STATINTL
A+ 3 Mr. Andrew Marshall
Director, Net Assessment
OSD
Room 3A930, Pentagon
lw
Chief, Latin American br MIT
97$ DIA--D:B-3E, Pentagon
AFIS/INZA
Approved Fd. -aseJOLt/?411 ~ CCP2f)0*990 ~A6 1100070001-4
Room 4A856, Pentagon
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A00110007000.1-4
o 7~ Mr. John Dale Pafenberg
Hqs.USAF
(AF/INA)
Room 4A882, Pentagon
aga
Mr. William Silvey
Office of Space Systems
Office of the Administrative Assistant
to the Secretary of the Air Force
Department of the Air Force
Room 4C1000, Pentagon
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 Appr-i IRe1 X204Q1/I4AkDCIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
a g/ The Arthur F. Burns
Chairman
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
Mr. Stephen Gardner
Deputy Chairman
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
Mr. Henry C. Wallich
Member
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
(2 cys) ags" Mr. John E. Reynolds
Director
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
dir. Jay Charles Partee
Director
Division of Research and Statistics
Federal Reserve System
X87 Mr. Reed J. Irvine, Adviser
Division of international Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
$~ Mr. Samuel Pizer, Adviser
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
MMIr. Sam Y. Cross
U.S. Executive Director
International Monetary Fund
Dr. Raymond J. Albright
Vice President for Europe
Export-Import:Bank of the United States
Mr. Stephen Goodman
Vice President for Policy Analysis
Room 12 0 3
Export-Import Bank of the United. States
o~9ja .sir. Stephen DuBril
Chairman -
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
-13- 1
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
(2 cys) 93 General Services Administration
acjc~ Federal Preparedness Agency
Mr. John Lavery
Security Officer
Room 4203
18th & F Streets, N.W.
c/3 Mr. Raymond W. Bronez
Office of the Assistant Secretary for
Policy and International Affairs
Department of Transportation
The Honorable Dale Hathaway
Assistant Secretary Designate
International Affairs and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
a97 Mr. Elmer ciumpp
Assistant to the Assistant Secretary for
International Affairs and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Howard W. Hjort
Director
Agricultural Economics
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Joseph W. Willett
Director
Foreign Demand and Competition Division
Economic Research Service
Department of Agriculture
cOOMr. David L. Hume
Administrator
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
3?/ Mr. George S. Shanklin
Acting General Sales Manager
Foreign Agricultural Serive
Department of Agriculture
.aD,z Mr. Brice Meeker
Assistant Administrator for Foreign Commodity Analysis
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA _Rp'7~B00457A001100070001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
30,3 Assistant Secretary for Energy and Minerals
Department of the Interior
3 oq
Mr. Alexander Holser
Acting Administrator
Ocean Mining Administration
Department of the Interior.
Room 3526
18th & C Streets, N.W.
30S National Defense University
Ft. Leslie H. McNair
Washington, D.C. 20319
Attn: Classified Library
for: Comandant of National War College
Mr. Marshall Westover
Federal Energy Administration
Room 2124
2000 M Street, N.W.
att: Mr. Melvin Conant
0
Department of Labor
Mrs. Ann Causey
Office of Management Administration Planning
Bureau of International Labor Affairs
Room S -5214
200 Constitution Ave, N.W.
Mrs. Hilda 0. Scudder
OPIC
Room 613
1129 20th Street, N.W.
for Mr. John Gun
Room 744
-15-
Approved For Release 2001/04/11: CIA-RDP79B00457A001100070001-4
 rt
Approve - i--ia-pinpZaELMAs;7Annll-ffri'h-irfiAni -A
YTNCLASSIFIE ' CONFIDENT SEe2I,r
ApprovedrFwnlRe se 2O PaJ /a'HhdnCIA-RDP79B00457A0011000700014 )
1-67
SENDER WILL CHECK CLASSIFIC4TION TOP AND BOTTOM
UNCLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIAL
X SECRET
OFFICIAL ROUTING
SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITI LS
I
SA/ER
r~ }
J ~;!
Z
3
PPG/R&D
4
Roan 7G-07
5
Hqs.
6
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks: c p E[ W k 2 -2 _. 0 '
Please indicate the items releasable
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
FFG/R&DB
-14-77
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
v -7
ke7 '~tIX
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100070001-4
 SFC~ET -
I41 (-I
f^"
Approved For'Rele 2^^l
V ^ AVV I I VVV ^ VVV 4
PUBLICATIONS SOURCE SURVEY
USE OF INFORMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
CA1111 1 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXRX7CIC
CARD
TYPE
(1-2)
SURVEY NO.
(3-8)
XXXXX)XXXXXXXKXXXXKXXXXXXXXXXXX
-1!C!
PUBLICATION NUMBER
(13-23)
DATE PUBLISHED
-01-7)
FOR CRG ONLY
CIB PUBLICATION DATE
(13-18)
24
F
y
y
/~
52
[
53
C
{
/(
d
If
--
XX
XXX
XX
XXX
XXX
XXX
XX
XX X
X XX
XX X
X XX
XX X
XXX
CARD 2 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX/1XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
OFFICE (9-10)
CARD
TYPE
/ U