ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 74
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 14, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 7, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
NOFORN-NOCONTRACT
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
ER EIW 77-027
7 July 1977
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Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
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NOCONTRACT- blot Releasable to Contractors or
Contractor/Consultants
PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Pnvo ved
NFIBONLY- ~JFIB Departments Only
ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
REL . ? . - This Information has been Authorized ?~or
Release to .. .
Classified by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedtrls
of Ic.O. 11652, exemption carapory:
?SB(1), (2), and ;3.
,automatically declassified on:
date impossible fo delarmin?
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Noforn-Nocontract
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
7 July 1977
Argentina: Improved Foreign Financial Situation
The junta, which came to power in March 1976, has brought Argentina
back from the verge of international bankruptcy to a comparatively
favorable trade and payments position.
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ARGENTINA: IMPROVED FOREIGN FINANCIAL SITUATION;'
`The military junta that took over last year has brouglrl Argentina back from
the verge of international bankruptcy to a state ~.~~I` comfortable solvency.
Internaticmai obligations are being met, and reserves havr.. reached an alltime high.
The government must now induce industry to exploit th4 favorable foreign balance
by imparting more of the materials needed for raising domestic production.
Economic prospects l~or the remainder of 1977 are good even thougly the
government still faces seriou.; domestic problems-inflation, a large budget deficit,
z,nd lagging industrial produc~ion. Its handling of these problems over the next year
~~r so will. help determine whether it remains in power long enough to consolidate its
rains.
Inherited Problems
When the military ousted the Yeronist government in March 1'97E~, the
c?conorny was approaching disaster. The trade balance rad registered a half billion
dollar deficit in 19'75-compared with a $1.3 billion surplus two years earlier, when
a good grain harvest boosted exports, and an $800 million surplus in 1974. The
975 drop resulted from a poor grain harvest, the loss of EC markets for meat, and
tln unrealistic exchange rate that made Argentine manufach~res uncompetitive while
encouraging importers to buy heavily abroaa in anticipation of a major devaluation.
Althouglh the higher cost of oil imports also contributed, oil costs are less significant
for Argentina than for most oil-importing countries bec?~,~ase domestic oil production
covers 85-90 percent of regt.irements. In addition, poor debt planning had allowed a
concentration of foreign debt payments to build up in i y7fa. Reserves were near the
vanishing point.
"This article is the fourth in a series on the foreign financial gap faced by individual LllCs. In r:hese articles,
financial gap is deferred as the current account deficit plus amortization of rued um- and long-term debt; shifts in
short-term capital are nor. included. Previous articles have covered Mexico, ttre Philippines, and South Korea.
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Domestic production, furthermore, was stagnant. Government policies had
discouraged agricultural output, while manufacturers found themselves in a profit
squeeze between rising costs and regulated prices. Inflation was spiraling upward so
rapidly that, if left unchecked, the 1976 rate would have approached 1,000 percent.
With a bloated bureaucracy and an inadequate :revenue structure, the government
deficit was rising rapidly, and the regime was increasingly covering expenditures by
issuing more currency. For their part, workers were demanding and getting sizable
wage increases in an effort to offset rising prices. Argentina's foreign credit rating
was poor, and the Peronist government had not yet lined up funds to cover its
foreign financial gap. This gap had widened from a half billion dollars in 1974 to $2
billion in 1975.
Argentina: Foreign Financial Gap
1973
1974
Mill
1975
ion US $
19761
19772
Exports, f.o.b.
3,266
3,931
2,961
3,895
4,500
Imports, f.o.b.
1,983
3,160
3,431
2,652
3,500
Net services and transfers
-563
-644
-815
-632
-790
Current account balance
720
127
-1,285
611
210
Debt amortization
-573
-600
-800
-1,000
-1,000
Financial gap
147
-473
-2,085
-389
-790
Medium- and long-term
capital inflows
594
723
NA
1,300
NA
Net short-term capital
inflows
180
-301
NA
290
NA
Change in reserves
921
-51
-791
1,201
-300
External debt, yearend
4,672
4,873
4,695
Percent
5,189
4,679
Debt service ratio
20
17
30
29
25
1 Preliminary.
ZProjected.
The new junta immediately focused on the need to stimulate exports, with
emphasis on agricultural products. It reversed the previous policy of keeping
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agricultural prices low to benefit urban workers. Sharply ur;reased prices for farm
products, improved availability of credits, anc~ abolition of the marketing monopoly
of the state grain board led to a 10-percent in; tease in grain areas planted. Favorable
weather during the growing and harvesting s~;asons then ccntributcd to a bumper
crop. A11:hough world wheat prices dropped, aggressive marketing by private
Argentine grain sales agencies-pushed by a sFortage of facil ties to store the record
crop-accounted for a large share of the $900 rr.illion increase in total exports in 1976.
This trend continued into 1977, when the remainder of the harvest was marketed.
Meat exports nearly doubled in 1976 compared with the depressed 1975 level,
aided by more realistic exch~:nge rates. With continual "microdevaluations" of the
peso to offset inflation and the gradual elimination of the c!ual exchange rate.. the
government also succeeded in stimulating e~:ports of nontraditional products by
yearend. Imports dropped 23 percent in 197 as inventories were drawn down and
as demand was damped by recession.
in addition to initiating the export promotion program, Economics Minister
Martinez de Hoz launched a worldwide effort to obtain foreign loans. In personal
approaches to banks and international financial institutions in the United States,
Canada, Western Europe, and Japan he succeeded in lining ,cp nearly $1 billion in
four- to five-year loans. Together with $300 million from the IMF, these loans
enabled Argentina to meet upcoming debt obligations anc. to improve the debt
maturity profile.
By yearend 19'76, debt payment coverage was assured. Moreover the trade
balance had swung from 1975's $500 million deficit to a $1.2 billion surplus. The
current account balance totaled $600 million. compared wit}i a $1.3 billion deficit
the year ibefore. International reserves had trebled. Gains on the domestic front
promised further improvement in the general economic clim~_te and the restoration
of foreign confidence in Argentina's financial soundness:
? GDP, although down 2.9 percent for 1976 as a whole, was rising in the
last quarter.
? The inflation rate was down from more than 400 percent (annual basis)
in first half 1976 to about: l 00 percent in the second half
? Thc: national budget deficit, which equaled 13.5 percent of GDP in first
half 1976, was down to about half that Eevel in the second half; for the
year as a whole, 41 percent of expenditures were covered by revenues,
compared with only 23 percent in 1975.
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1977-Maintaining the Pace
The foreign financial situation has remained highly favorable so far.
Exceptionally large grain shipments boosted exports to $1.8 billion in the first four
months, double the level of imports. More than 85 percent of imports consisted of
industrial inputs and capital goods, signaling ari upturn in industrial output. To
encourage this trend, the government has removed practically all restrictions on
imports. If production picks up, imports should be considerably larger in the
remainder of the year; exports will decline until. the next harvest begins in
November. The government's economic team projects the year's exports at $4.3
billion to $4.5 billion, the trade surplus at close to $1 billion, and the current
account surplus at $200 million.
The junta is continuing its program of incentives for agriculture and expects
another large grain harvest in 1977/78. It is also counting on realistic exchange
policies to boost exports of manufactured goods.
Debt payments due in 1977 are close to the 1.976 level of $1 billion and will
require additional borrowing to cover. Although ~m improved credit rating will make
loans easier to obtain, new borrowing is expected to total less than one-third the
1976 level because of record foreign reserves. I3uenos Aires almost certainly will
choose to reduce its external debt rather than accumulate additional reserves.
Farther Down the Road
Longer range prospects for the Argentine economy are clouded by political
uncertainties. If the present economic team remains in power and adheres to current
policies, the economic recovery is likely to accelerate, and the foreign financial
situation should continue improving. In light of past Argentine experience, however,
it cannot be assumed that this will happen.
The well-organized and traditionally influential labor sector has been a major
factor forcing previous military governments to abandon promising economic reform
programs. Much of the burden of the present economic readjustment has fallen on
the working class, whose purchasing power-as the regime concedes-may have
dropped by one-third in the past year. Labor organizations have lost most of their
political influence and lack a central rallying point since Juan Peron's death. If
public opinion turns against the junta, however, labor elements could probably exert
enough pressure to force the government to ease restrictions on wages and union
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activities. Continuation of tl~ e present economic program w~~uld then be impossible.
If changes were made that 'avored urban labor at the expense of agriculture, the
problems that characterized much of the last three decades v~ould reappear.
Another possible development would he the ascer~darrcy of a more hard-line
group within the military that would replace the preser7t gradualist, free-enterprise
approach with stricter controls. Although this policy might bring down inflation
more rapidly, it could stifle the reviving manufacturing sector and cause extensive
alnemployment. Any change from the present governl>~rcnt would probably have a
generally destabilizvlg effect.
Foreign investors are wary because of past experience with Buenos .Aires'
vacillating economic policies and are waitin_ for more solid evidence of political
stability before -investing heavily. They are favorably impressed, however, with the
junta's liberalization of foreign investment laws and with its efforts to Settle
outstanding disputes with several foreign firms. Increasirr~ n,tmbers of businessmen
are visiting Argentina to study investment opp~~rtunities. Some foreign
firms-especially oil companies-are increasing their exposure.
The financial gap should decline moderately over the next few years, a.s annual
debt payments diminish with better debt scheduling. The i urrent account surplus
may not increase substantially, since rising imports will probably limit trade
surpluses. Agricultural e~:ports-i'n which. Argentina has a corrrparative
advantage-should remain large; exports of manufacturers. esr~ecially .autos aad other
transport equipment, probably will increase. Covering even a sizable financial gap
should present no problem. (Confidential Nofc~rn)
Major Oil and Gas Fields of thh~ Free World
(ER 77-1(1313, Jtune 1977, Unclassified)
This publication details oil and gas reserves for major fields in the Fret. World.
Specific characteristics of individual fields are presented.
Copies of these publications may t e ordered by calling Cede 143, Extension 5203. 25X1 A
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Secret
Secret
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ECONOMIC INDIC~ITORS
Prepared by
ER EI 77-027
7 July 1977
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This publication is prepared for the use of U5. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those tsers. U.S.
Government officiate may obtain additional copies of this document
directly or through liaison channels from the Centr;~l Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar
CIA publications or_ a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to:
Docurnent Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
Project subscription service may purchase reproducti~;ns of specific
publications on an individual basis from:
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Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
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FOREWORD
1. The Economic Indicators provide up-to-date information on changes in
the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-Communist
developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators are updated
from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the results are made available
to the reader weeks-or sometimes months--before receipt of official statistical
publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators will be published quarterly. The
most recent data of publication is 20 April 1977. Comments and queries regarding the
Economic Indicators are welcomed.
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally aajus1tea
West Germany
130
120
(~~7 y, ~ UL T "PR UL OCT IAPi APR JUL OCT JA"J APR JUL OCT
JAN APR JUAnMIV~I.I P2~~ R~ea~~ 2~1/~~/1'~ C~`A-R~~79B0~,~~7A0011000C1Q~~.'~5 1977
1972M 1973 1974 1
+i-1
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United Kingdom
- iio =- _ ~ ~ _...
-~ 111 ~ /~~ ~~
_~ i~
Canada
130
120
~--
-
~
123
~~~~--~-?--?~_-
3`~~~
Y"? 1~0
IAN APR JUL OCT
1972
JAN AP
R JUL O
1973
CT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
1974
APR JUL OCT
1975
JAN APR
1
JUL OCT
976
JAN APR JUL OCT
1977
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change
from
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
Previous
1 Year 3 Months
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year 3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970 Earlier Earlierl
MONTH
Month
1970 Earlier Earlierl
United States
MAY ]7
1.1
3.6 6.3 ] 1.4
United Kingdom
!~.p^ 77
0.8
Q.7 1.5 2.]
Japan
h1AY ?7
20
3.9 4.3 6.1
Italy
;:~ I'. 77
ri.3
3.2 5.4 6.4
West Germany
.^.~R 7-~
0.8
2.3 4. , 23
Canada
APR 77
0.3
3.9 2.2 3.7
France
!'+E'R 7!
1.. ti
3.Fi 41. 39
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lAverage for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
~' 115
~~~~~~
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UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT ~F LABOR FORCE
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A-4
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United Kingdom
5.7
? Italy (quarterly)
4 ..r.~~~
3
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan, Italy and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-77, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively,and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates.
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DOMESTIC PRICES1 INDEX: 1970=100
United States
175
150
~JNest Germany
150
125
I~=rance
225
2.00
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN A?R JUL OCT JAN AF!R JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAM APR JUL OCT
1974 1975 1976 1977
1.`Nholesale price dexes cover i d t?ial o
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~a
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United Kingdom
275
250
2so
1972
Percent AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change GROWTH RATE SINCE
from
LATEST Previous 1970 1 Year 3 Months
MONTH Month Earlier Earlier
United States MAY 77 0.5 8.6 7.6 9.4
Japan APR 77 -0.1 8.1 3.6 1.4
West Germany APR 77 0.3 5.5 3.5 4.3
France MAR 77 0.9 8.4 8.2 7.6
Af~R JUL OCT lAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1975 1976 1977
Percent
Change
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
MAY 77
1.6
14.9
20.9
19.7
APR 77
0.7
16.1
19.8
13.5
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 GNP Hpprovea ror Kelease zuuvU4i~ ~ : cIH-KU
Constant Market Prices
r~~r~~~~ ~UUUSUUU~-5
Constant Prices
Ave: age
A'r?f?De
Annual Grow~h Rate Since
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Changc,
Latest from Previous 1 Year Previous
Quarter Quar ler 1970 Earlier Quarter
Lmast
M,xith
from Previous
Month
1 Year 3 Months
1970 Earlier Earlier s
United
States
77
I
1.3
2.9
4.1
5 2
United States
May 77
0.4
3.6
8.5
8.7
Japan
77
I
2.5
5.5
.1.9
10.2
Japan
Feb 77
1.0
10.6
4.2
10.1
West
Germany
76
IV
1.8
2.5
4,5
7,3
West Germany
AF~r 77
-4.2
1.9
0.9
-l.l
France
76
IV
0
3.9
~:.9
0
France
Fee 77
-5.1
-0.9
0
- 1.4
United
Kingdom
76
IV
2.1
2.0
:'.6
B 8
United Kingdom
Huy 77
0.1
O.ti
- 3.1
- 12.7
Italy
76
IV
4..8
3.4
S'.4
20.6
Italy
Mar 77
0.2
2.9
-0.3
16.3
Canada
76
IV
-0.6
d.8
^. d
_~ 5
Canada
Feb 77
- 1.3
4.8
4.7
12.2
'Seasonally adjusted
Average (or lahst 3 morths compared with average for previous 3 months.
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING'
Non-residential; constant p
rices
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate since
Percent Change.
Perc
Annual Growth Rate Since
ent Change
~.atast from Previous I Yaar 3 Months
P
d
er n
Period 1970 Earlier Earlier'
latest fro
Quarter
m Previous 1 "ear Previous
Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
Lrsited S
I
tates j May 77
0.8
7.5
7.8
7.3
United States
77 I
3.4
1.6
8.3
14.3
Japan
( Mar 77
- 1.4
17.5
11.2
7.2
Japan
77 I
0.2
0:9
3.9
0.8
West Ge
rmany 177 I
4.0
9.6
7.7
17.1
West Germany
76 IV
3.3
1.1
5.0
13.8
France
1 77 I
2.3
14.1
13.9
9.5
France
75 IV
8:B
4.2
2.9
40.1
United Ki
ngdom
Nor 76
0:3
16.0
9.0
1.8
United Kingdom
76 IV
-6.7
0.2
7.5
-24.3
Italy
Apr 77
0.3
20.5
34.9
38.2
Italy
76 IV
10:6 9
3.1
15.7
49.6
Canada
!
Ma' 77
0.2
11.4
11.5
14.9
COOOdO
76 IV
8..5 I 6.8
5.1
38.7
~ Hourly ea
rnings (seasonally aiiusted) for the United States, Japon, and Canada; hourly wage
roves for others. West German and French data refer to the beginning of the quarter.
Averope for latest 3 mortis compared with that for previaas 3 months.
United States
Commerical paper
Jun 22
Japan
Call money
Jur. 24
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
tun 22
France
Coll money
Jun 24
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loans (3 months)
Jun 22
Canada
Finance paper
Jun 22
Eurodollars
Three-month deposits
Jun 22
Year 3 Months ~- Month
:artier Earlier Earlia~
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9BQ~0~~@9060001-5
US $
National Currency
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rafe Since
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Latest
from Previous
1 Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Month
Month
1970
Earlier Earlier
United States
Mar 77
0.8
10.1
6.5
3.5
United States
Mar 77
0.8
10.1
6.5 3.5
Japan
Apr 77
1.7
11.0
18.4
14.7
.lapan
Apr 77
0.1
6.7
9.2 - 7.3
West Germany
Apr 77
0.8
11.5
9.5
1.6
West Germany
Apr 77
0.1
4.6
2.6 - 1.5
France
Feb 77
0.4
11.6
2.7
14.9
t=rance
Feb 77
0.3
9.8
14.4 14.0
United Kingdom
May 77
1.9
10.8
14.6
15.2
IJnited Kinddom
May 77
1.8
16.3
20.7 13.0
Italy
Feb 77
2.9
11.3
17.6
29.1
Italy
Feb 77
3.1
17.3
35.1 39.2
Canada
Jan 77
1.2
9.4
0.3
0.9
Canada
Jan 77
1.6
8,5
- 1.6 7.3
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
OFFICIAL RESERVES
Average
Annual
Growth Rafe Since
Billion US S
Percent Change
Latest
Month
Lafesf
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
1 Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
End of
Billion US
S Jun 1970
Earlier Earlier
United States
Mar 77
2.7
14.0
9.5
22.3
United States
Apr 77
18.9
14.5
17.4 18.7
Japan
Apr 77
-7.0
10.6
-4.1
-23.8
Japan
May 77
17.3
4.1
15.2 16.8
West Germany
Apr 77
1.3
4.6
3.7
2.7
West Germany
Apr 77
34.6
8.8
34.4 34.4
France
Feb 77
2.1
10.8
19.3
16.8
France
Mar 77
9.8
4.4
11.1 9.7
United Kingdom
May 77
0.1
19.9
18.7
11.0
United Kingdom
Nov 76
5.2
2.8
5.6 5.0
Italy
Feb 77
4.6
21.9
39.3
33.4
Italy
Sap 76
5.1
4.7
5.8 5.2
Canada
Jan 77
4.8
9.2
0.7
32.2
Canada
Apr 77
5.2
4.3
5.8 5.7
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
'
BASIC BALANCE '
cumulati
ve (Million us sj
Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions
Latest
Cumulative (Million US S)
Period Million US S
1977
1976
Change
Latest
United States s
77 I
-4,317 -4,317
540
-4
857
Period
Million US S
1976
1975 Change
,
United States
No lon
ger publis
hed'
Japan
May 77
120
2,237
428
1,809
Japan
May 77
- 120
2,703
-888 3
591
West Germany
Apr 77
356
1,185
1,278
-93
West Germany
Apr 77
-640
3,460
,
-2,838 6
298
France
76 IV
-1,238
N.A.
N.A.
N,A.
France
76 IV
-721
-6,843
,
-81 -6,761
United Kingdom
77 I
- 502
- 502
- 466
- 36
United Kingdom
76 IV
- 205
- 2,092
-4,171 2
079
Italy
76 IV
- 882
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Italy
76 III
779
- 2,232
,
1,096 - 3
329
Canada
77 I
- 1,624 -
1,624 - 1,911
287
Canada
77 I
-583
3,128
,
- 1,052 4,180
' Converted to US dollars at the current market ra
tes of ezchange.
' Converted to US dollars at the curr
'
ent market rotas of ezchange.
' Seasonally adjusted.
As recommended by t
he Advisory Committee on the Presentation
of Balance of Payments
Statistics, the Department of Commerce
no longer publishes a ba
sic balance.
EXCHANGE RATES
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE
RATES'
Spot Rate
As of 24 Jun 77
As of 24 Jun 77
Percent Change from
Percent Change from
US S
1 Year
3 Months
1 Year
3 Months
Per Unit
19 Mar 73
Earlier
Earlier
17 Jun 77
19 Mar 73
Earlier
Earlier
17 Jun 77
Japan (yen)
0.0037
-3.23
9.62
1.80
0.27
United States
6.06
0.87
-0.28
0.07
West Germany
0.4249
19.99
9.43
1.64
0.02
Japan
2.48
11.71
1.69
0.31
(Deutsche mark)
Wt:st Germany
24.58
7.31
1.40
0,06
France (franc)
0.2025
- 8.12
- 3.93
0.67
0.08
France
- 7.91
- 7.85
- 0.02
0.11
United Kingdom
1.7197
- 30.12
- 2.95
0.02
0.01
United Kingdom
- 30.44
- 4.86
- 0.02
0.07
(pound sterling)
Italy
- 38.40
- 7.23
- 0.41
0
Italy (lira)
0.0011
- 36.16
- 4.56
0.27
0
Canada
- 3.28
- 9.10
- 0.78
- 0.34
Canada (dollar)
0.9425
- 5.53
- 8.64
- 0.65
- 0.33
'Weighting is based on
each listed count
ry's trade wi
th 16 other industrialized countries to
V -
-
- - -
-
-
i
ra varia
tions among
fha major currencies.
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
exports to (f.o.b.)
Big Other Com-
Worlcl Seven OECD OPEC' munist Other
Million US $
imports from (c.i.f.)
t3ig Other Com-
World Seven OECD OPEC' munist Other
UNITED STATES
912
256
17
078
1
419
25
3974 ............. 97,908
45,1384
16,870
6,590
2,258
26,206
107,997
53,332
10,
,
,
,
1975 ............. 107,191
46,941
16,180
10,768
3,421
29,881
103,414
49;807
8,818
18,371
1,253
25,165
1st Qtr ........
27,098
12,101
4,848
2, 430
618
7,101
26,315
12,897
2,584
4,785
266
5,783
2d Qtr ........
26,360
11,'1386
3,808
2,597
538
7,431
24,733
12,150
2,114
4,166
206
6,097
3d Qtr ........
25,E300
10,.511
3,562
2,707
692
8,328
25,969
14,551
2,091
4,519
193
4,615
dth Qtr ........
27,933
12;443
3,962
2,934
1,573
7,021
26,397
10,209
2,029
4,901
995
24
588
1
572
8,670
873
32
1976 ............. 114,997
51,298
17,607
12,552
3,935
29,605
129,565
60,387
9,738
,
,
,
1st Qtr ........ 27,:360
12,184
4,159
2, 751
1,144
7,122
29,339
13,717
2,479
5,570
356
7,217
2d Qtr ........ 29,695
13,383
4,527
3,113
1,036
7,636
31,650
15,247
2,49'1
5,582
333
7,997
3d Qtr ........ 27,437
11,944
4,114
3,103
850
7,426
33,734
16,693
2,401
7,156
423
7,061
4th Qtr ........ 30,:505
13,787
4,807
3,585
905
7,421
34,842
14,730
2,367
6,687
460
10,598
1977
1st Qtr ........ 29,458
13,681
4,602
2,936
951
7,288
37,361
16,C70
2,745
73
8,972
3
280
397
152
9,177
230
3
Apr ........... 10,.548
4,686
1,613
1,080
352
2,817
13,249
5,714
8
,
,
JAPAN
1974 ............. 54,480
19,101
7,477
5,446
3,915
18,541
62,046
18,780
7,303
19,965
3,119
12,879
1975 ............. 54,:622
16,567
6,091
8,406
5,283
18,475
57,856
16,529
6,084
19,427
3,383
12,033
1st
Qtr ........ 13;364
4,013
1,394
1,891
1,447
4,319
14;545
4,442
1,431
4,637
797
3,238
2d
Qtr ........ 13,404
3,897
1,362
2,072
1,353
4,720
14,272
4,x56
1,417
4;892
895
2,712
3d
Qtr ........ 13;454
3,945
1,585
2,231
1,290
4,403
14,091
4,131
1,544
4,615
821
2,980
dth
Qtr ........ 14,900
4,712
1,750
2,212
1,193
5,033
14,448
4,000
1,692
5,284
877
1
870
926
2
3,102
780
14
1976
............. 67,364
22,406
8,588
9,277
5,049
22,044
64,895
17,:34
7,778
,
2
,
,
1st
Qtr
........
14,429
4,84$
1,827
1,872
1,289
4,593
14,832
4,083
1,696
5,213
671
3,169
2d
Qtr
........
16,431
5,402
2,092
2,271
1,348
5,318
15,903
4,:.47
1,943
5,400
677
3,536
3d
Qtr
........
17,542
5,897
2,272
2.476
1,135
5,762
16,818
4,a97
2,137
5,406
747
4,031
dth
Qtr
........
18,962
6,259
2,397
2.659
1,277
6,370
17,342
4,607
2,002
5,858
831
4,044
1977
1st Qtr ........
17,911
5,848
2,449
2-461
1,409
5,744
17,452
4,%17
1,845
6,246
801
3,843
WEST GERMANY
1974 .............
89,188
30,998
37,605
4.268
6,884
9,433
68,962
23,:'62
26,079
8,406
3,209
7,506
1975 .............
90,063
28,331
36,407
6.777
9,029
9,579
74,986
27,()85
27,755
8,228?
4,167
7,751
1st Qtr ........
22,518
7,052
9,368
1.490
1,683
2,925
18,034
6,439
6,856
1,890
807
2,042
7.d Qtr ........
23,637
7,280
9,580
1,701
1;895
3,181
19,779
7,7.87
7,293
2,091
1,121
1,987
3d Qtr ........
20,776
6,389
8,290
1,814
3,136
1,147
17,563
6,:171
6,390
1,95E
1,060
1,786
4th Qtr ........
23,132
7,610
9,169
1,772
2,315
2,266
19,610
b,p88
7,216
2,291
1,179
1,936
1976 .............
101,989
33,372
41,720
8,231
8,575
10,091
88,230
31,008
31,351
9,718
5,050
11,103
1st Qtr ........
22,467
7,855
9,437
1,705
2,064
1,406
20,147
6,?90
7,114
2,185'
1,046
3,008
2d Qtr ........
24,570
8,147
10,019
1,832
1,771
2,801
21,571
7,?178
7,778
2,22'x!
1,127
2,966
3d Qtr ........
26,147
8,134
10,445
2,235
2,385
2,94$
21,792
8,136
7,900
2,57:1
',550
1,631
4th QTr ........
28;805
9,236
11,819
2,459
2,355
2,936
24,720
B,.SO4
8,559
2,731
1,327
3,499
i977
1st Qtr ........
27,804
9,281
11,609
2,307
2,156
2,451
24,084
8,-165
8,828
2,57#)
1,270
2,943
PRANCE
1974 .............
46,388
19,345
15,245
3,164
1,874
6,760
52,820
22,)40
13,874
8,84f1
1,547
6,511
1975 .............
53,005
19,959
15,183
4,952
3,094
9,817
54,238
23;)40
14,350
9,4411
1,591
5,809
1st Qtr ........
13,511
5,042
4,136
1,202
7.16
2,415
13,988
5,952
3,762
2,507
441
1,426
2d Qtr ........
14,496
5,415
4,229
1,378
824
2,650
14,027
6,312
3,759
2,307
177
1,772
3d Qtr ........
11,627
4,435
3,037
1,094
679
2,382
11,903
5,389
2,971
2,059
450
1,343
4th Qtr ........
13,371
5,067
3,781
1,278
875
2,370
14,320
6,087
3,858
2,584
523
1,268
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
a-~o
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
Developed Countries: Direction of Trade'
(Continued)
Exports to (f.o.b.) Imports from (c.i.f.)
Big Other Com- Big Other Com-
World Seven OECD OPEC' munist Other World Seven OECD OPEC z munist Other
FRANCE (Continued)
1976 ............. 55,680 22,438 16,081 5,080 3,558 8,523 64,255 27,750 16,894 11,359 2,384 5,868
1st Qtr ........ 13,639 5,524 3,921 1,240 917 2,037 15,529 6,567 4,157 2,817 595 1,393
2d Qtr ........ 14,769 5,911 4,395 1,222 1,059 2,182 16,187 7,149 4,324 2,610 593 1,511
3d Qtr ........ 12,409 4,922 3,446 1,292 729 2,020 14,840 6,431 3,733 2,746 577 1,352
4th Qtr ........ 14,863 6,081 4,319 1,326 853 2,284 17,699 7,603 4,680 3,185 619 1,612
UNITED KINGDOM
1974 ............. 37,160 11,765 17,006 2,567 1,197 4,625 54,510 18,272 18,253 8,020 1,849 8,116
1975 ..... . ....... 41,731 12,339 16,515 4,553 1,480 6,844 53,147 18,301 18,274 6,962 1,771 7,839
1st Qtr ........ 10,454 3,107 4,266 962 306 1,813 13,877 4,930 4,551 1,960 387 2,049
2d Qtr ........ 10,837 3,167 4,183 1,232 411 1,844 13,426 4,709 4,498 1,808 434 1,977
3d Qtr ........ 9,592 2,744 3,696 1,179 338 1,635 12,699 4,281 4,526 1,579 442 1,871
4th Qtr ........ 10,848 3,321 4,370 1,180 425 1,552 13,145 4,382 4,699 1,614 508 1,942
1976 ............. 46,352 14,026 17,803 5,132 1,625 7,76$ 56,224 19,332 19,271 7,291 2,240 8,090
1st Qtr ........ 11,615 3,409 4,414 1,238 433 2,121 13,639 4,357 4,975 1,825 510 1,972
2d Qtr ........ 11,560 3,531 4,379 1,254 422 1,974 14,133 5,058 4,626 1,738 590 2,121
3d Qtr ........ 11,089 3,437 4,186 1,265 389 1,812 13,861 4,746 4,573 1,891 597 2,054
4th Qtr ........ 12,088 3,649 4,821 1,376 381 1,861 14,591 5,171 5,097 1,836 543 1,944
1977
1st Qtr ........ 13,150 4,008 5,145 1,521 413 2,063 15,575 5,786 5,068 1,783 514 2,424
Apr ........... 4,427 1,264 1,754 531 152 726 5,064 1,875 1,666 501 185 837
ITALY
1974 ............. 30,261 13,796 7,681 2,427 1,721 4,636 40,977 18,003 7,216 9,313 1,944 4,501
1975 ............. 34,230 15,345 7,468 3,710 2,895 4,812 37,793 17,072 6,367 6,993 2,304 5,057
1st Qtr ........ 8,070 3,525 1,873 823 545 1,304 9,016 4,165 1,527 1,816 480 1,028
2d Qtr ........ 8,621 3,742 1,921 938 863 1,157 9,350 4,412 1,671 1,797 518 952
3d Qtr ........ 8,123 3,689 1,823 950 725 936 8,614 3,821 1,475 1,906 604 808
4th Qtr ........ 9,416 4,389 1,851 845 762 1,569 10,813 4,674 1,694 2,293 702 1,450
1976 ...... . ...... 35,364 16,698 8,276 4,165 2,591 3,634 41,789 18,585 7,759 8,124 3,000 4,321
1st Qtr ........ 7,398 3,513 1,713 811 597 764 9,092 4,063 1,708 1,816 608 897
2d Qtr ........ 8,705 4,157 2,040 958 623 927 10,716 4,786 1,918 2,106 744 1,162
3d Qtr ........ 9,398 4,505 2,191 1,056 656 990 10,335 4,497 1,860 2,029 792 1,157
4th Qtr ........ 9,863 4,523 2,332 1,340 715 953 11,646 5,239 2,273 2,173 856 1,105
CANADA
1974 ............. 32,904 27,092 2,004 548 659 2,601 33,309 26,727 1,777 2,698 257 1,850
1975 ............. 32,201 26,582 1,689 700 1,153 2,077 35,435 27,887 1,621 3,174 310 2,443
1st Qtr ........ 7,535 6,350 430 160 133 462 8,576 6,720 408 882 63 503
2d Qtr ........ 8,570 6,918 513 234 320 585 9,429 7,555 424 879 82 d89
3d Qtr ........ 7,712 6,450 382 142 182 556 8,341 6,783 365 732 72 389
4th Qtr ........ 8,384 6,864 364 164 518 474 9,089 6,829 424 681 93 1,062
1976 ............. 36,840 30,783 2,077 928 1,259 1,793 38,705 31,118 2,034 3,154 369 2,030
1st Qtr ........ 8,422 7,103 381 167 328 443 9,404 7,572 473 868 87 404
2d Qtr ........ 9,964 8,408 480 184 346 54fi 10,244 8,174 683 930 96 361
3d Qtr ........ 9,112 7,465 576 270 349 452 9,378 7,417 473 715 96 677
4Th Qtr ...... , . 9,342 7,807 640 307 236 352 9,679 7,955 405 642 90 587
1977
1st Qtr ........ 9,670 8,201 524 247 231 467 10,025 8,164 406 771 90 594
'Data are unadjusted. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
z Including Gabon.
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDPA7~~00457A001100060001-5
 Ap roved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
~OREI~N TRADE: ~I~~ioN us ~, f.o.b., seasonally ad~us#ed
~~Jnited States
i~t.o
>.z.o
West Germany
LO.0
8.0
.~--~-~-
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR lUL OCT JAN APB lUL OCT JAN APR lUl OCT 1AN APR JUL OCT
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
11.12
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
l.Jnited Kingdom
Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RI,~P7~9B00457A001100060001-5
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
FOREICaN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
West Germany
IAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OC" JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APF JLL OCT
Apprdv@~i~or Release~~'f~04/11 : CIA~~~9B00457AQ9~'T0~060001-5
tax port and import plots are based on five month weighted moving averages.
~~-14
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
United Kingdom
JAN APR lUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR lUL OCT
Ap~7e~1 For Relea~2~~1/04/11 : CI~P79B00457i~~1~00060001-5
A-15
 Approved For Re$~2yQ~~Q4/11 ~~~SPING SCOUh1TRIES 5
MONEY SUPPLY'
Brazil
India
South Korea
Mexico
Nigeria
Taiwan
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Ya~r 3 Months
Period Period 1970 Earlicr Earlier'
76 I I
Oct 76
Apr 77
Feb 77
76 II
Apr 77
0.1
0.2
3.5
3.2
2.4
- 0.3
11.0
4.2
21.8
5.2
18.7
14.6
10.7
6.7
11.9
- 1.5
60.3
10.3
0.4
- 12.6
1.0
- 7.4
9.8
- 11.0
' Seasonally adjusted.
' Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 nonths.
Averag
e
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
L test
.~,onth
from Previous 1 Y
Month 7970 Earl
ear 3 Months
ier Earlier'
Brazil
Jan 77
- 3.1
35.5
28
.2
49.6
E9YPt
Feb 77
5.1
18.3
22
.7
22.3
India
Jai 77
1.2
12.2
18
.3
19.9
Iran
Fey 77
0.9
28.2
35
.2
11.0
South
Korea
Mor 77
3.0
30.7
32.
4
41.5
Mexico
Jun 76
- 0.3
17.0
16.
6
19.6
Nigeria
Dec 76
5.2
35.0
49.
5
43.3
Taiwan
Jan 77
- 6.2
22.6
5.
7
13.0
Thailand
Jan 77
- 0.4
13.1
11.
0
9.4
' Seasonally odjusred.
'Average for latest-3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
BfaZll
India
Iran
South Korea
Mexico
Nigera
Taiwan
Thailand
Av wage
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Charge
Latest from Previous 1 Yeor
Month Month 1970 Earlier
Apr 77
Jan 77
Feb 77
Apr 77
May 77
Jan 77
Apr 77
Jan 77
3.3
0.3
2.6
0.1
0.9
4.5
0.8
0.6
26.6
8.1
11.3
14.6
14.7
15.0
10.4
8.3
44.4
3.0
26.2
9.6
31.4
13.5
2.0
3.6
Percent Cha
Annua
nge
Average
l Growin Rate Since
_.
L
P
atest
eriod
from Previo
Period
us
19
1 Year
70 Earlier
Brazil
O
ct
76
-G.4
14
.5
26.5
India
Ju
n
76
4:8
9
.9
- 5.9
Iran
M
ar
77
0
37
.6
18.7
South Korea
76
I
V
2.4
8
.9
15.0
Nigeria
M
ay
76
- 0.1
33
.2
8.2
Taiwan
Ja
n
77
C!.9
12
.2
6.5
Thailand
O
ct
76
12.0
13
.1
b.3
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Provious 1 Year
Month
Mon?'h
1970
Earlier
Brazil
Apr 77
4.3
27.3
45.9
India
Jan 77
0.5
9.2
7.2
Iran
Feb 77
3..3
10.8
24.1
South
Korea
Apr 77
0..3
16.8
9.9
Mexico
M.Sy 77
2.2
16.6
50.8
Taiwan
AF~r 77
0.8
9.3
4.7
Thailand
Jai 77
0.7
9.9
- 0.2
1
Year 3 M
onths
End of
Mill
ion US E
Jun 1970 Ear
lier Ear
lier
BfaZll
Fr:b
77
5,873
1,013
3,6
67
5,1
39
~9YPt
Frb
77
377
1S5
2
85
3
47
India
Frtb
77
3,481
1,006
1,8
37
3,0
03
icon
Aar
77
1
0,548
208
7,9
51
8,9
65
South
Korea
Mar
77
3,212
602
1,7
02
2,9
61
Mexico
Mar
76
1,501
695
1,4
79
1,5
33
Nigeria
Air
77
4,784
148
6,1
65
4,7
38
Taiwan
Fnb
77
1,414
531
1,0
97
1,6
76
Thailand
A~Jr
77
2,005
978
1,9
24
1,8
85
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
FOREIGN TRADE, f.o.b.
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 A roved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
AGR~~ULTURAL ~RICI~S MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
50
1-28 lUN
0 '1'373 1974 197Fi 1976 1!177 0
1-28 lUN
i) I I
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
1973 .1971 1975 'L976 1II77 0
500 World Raw New Vork No. 11 1,500
1-28 JUNI
1973 ]c174 1975 1976 1977
2,000
350
300
1,500
0.6247
1 28 lUN
0 II
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
1,000
200
28 JUN 7.55
22 JUN 7.h0
MAY 77 6.94
JUN 76 12.99
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;'~ i z3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4?-? Brokens,
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Tex.
27 lUN 15.25
20 JUN 15.25
MAY 77 15.50 600
JUN 76 16.00
II
1977
20 MAY 217.25
18 MAY 205.25
MAY 77 196.22
JUN 76 101.63
FOOD INDEX
500
1970=100
NOTE: The food index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
573422 7-77
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A-19
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE C~-SH PRICE
PER POIJNO
1.40
I
3 PER '',AETRIC TON
_ME J 3,000
45 C PEF POUND
'a PER MtTRIC TON
LME
1 000
28 JUN
57.9
40
28 JUN
24.9
22 JUN
60.0
22 JUN
26.9
MAV 77
62
3
MAY 77
30.0
.
800
JUN 76
70.3 2,500
35
JUN 76
21.6
0 150 ~
i25
100
:'.000
28 JUN
24.1 -
28 JUN
434.7
22 JUN
25.3
22 lUN
43 L9
550
MAY 77
27.7
MAY 77
445.6
JUN 76
33.9
JUN 76
352.8
74 JUN
22 ILN
NiAY 77
IIJN 7Ei
125 225
100 200
75 175
50 150
25 125
28 JUN 1ti7.0
22 JUN 167.0
INAY 77 167.0
JUN 76 162.3
1973 1974 1975 1976 1 I~77 0 100 'L973 1974 1975 1976 i1~77
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,~ ~o
 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79BOO457AOO11OOO6OOO1-5
ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
t per pound
51,00
48.00
44.00
39.00
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
339.27
333.78
316.36
289.23
IRON ORE
Non-8essemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
20.51
19.50
17.53
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ per metric ton
150.00
150.00
150.00
135.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
58.50
42.00
39.00
35.05
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
C per pound
43.00
43.00
45.00
53.50
NICKEL
Major US Producer Cathode
$ per pound
2.41
2.41
2.20
2.01
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
72.00
72.00
72.00
67,20
TUNGSTEN ORE
65 Percent W03
$ per short ton
10,584.70
8,581.80
6,525.25
5,262.84
MERCURY
NY
$ per 76 pound flask
120.00
134.50
110.00
155.19
SILVER
LME Cash
t per troy ounce
446.35
434.62
478.82
449.19
GOLD
London Afternoon Fixing Price
$ per troy ounce
140.31
133.79
125.71
164.15
II
1977
LUMBER INDEX6
tApproximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
~~Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the US.
?tAs of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY Ib composite."
`fQuoted on New York market.
`'S-type styrene, US export price.
EiThis index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as "bell wethers" of US lumber construction costs.
Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
573423 7-77
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~,~.. C.i ~,cJ 77 -0~7~ ~ ~ 1`177
(4 cys) White House Situation Room
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,~ ~ 1- Mr. David L. Aaron
Deputy Assistant for
National Security Affairs
1- White-House Situation Room
. Mr. Robert Hormats
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National Security Council
,~~ Mr. William G. Hyland
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
~~ Mr. Robert O. Pastor
Senior Staff Member
National-Security Council.
/ Mr. Malcolm Butler
.Staff Member
National Security Council
~Q
Dr. Jessica Tuchman
Director
Office of Global Issues
National Security Council
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Staff Member
Mr. William Quandt
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
.National .Security Council
!T ~ Mr. Samuel M. F-Ioskinson
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
~~ Ambassador Henry Owen
Room 380,EOB
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COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
~~ The Honorable Charles :L. Schultze
Chairman
Council of Economic Advisers
~~ Mr. Peter G. Gould
Assistant to the Chairman
Council of Economic Advisers
Mr. Jeffrey R. Shafer
Senior Staff Economist ( International)
Council of Economic Advisers
~~ Mr. Philip Verleger
Senior Staff Economist
Council of Economic Advisers
~~ The Honorable William Nordhaus
Member
~/ Council of Economic Advisers
~~ The Honorable Lyle E, Gramley
Member
Council of Economic Advisers
OFF ICE OF -SPECIAL -REPRESE~?'1'ATIVE FOR
--TRADE NEGOTIATIONS -: "
~~ Ambassador Robert S. Strauss
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Office of Management & Budget
Room 8215
New EOB
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DEPARTMENT OF STATE
~~ The Honorable Warren Christopher
Deputy Secretary of State
~~ The Honorable Richard Cooper
Under Secretary for
Economic Affairs
~f? The Honorable Lucy Benson
Under Secretary for Security Assistance
~?~ The Honorable Anthony Lake
Director
Policy Planning Staff
Dr. Luigi Einaudi
Member
Policy Planning Staff
~~
70
Nlss~Jeonne Walker
Member
Policy Planning Staff
Mr. Thomas W.M. Smith
Director
Office of West African. Affairs
Bureau of African Affairs
The Honorable Richard HolbrooI~e
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs
r-~
/~ Mr. Anthony Geber
Director
? Office of Economic Policy
Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs
The Honorable Arthur A. Hartman
Assistant Secretary
Bureau of European Affairs
(2 cys}
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EB/ORF/OFP
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PRC Economic Officer
PRC Desk
Room 4318, N.S.
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Office of Eastern European Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
Mr. Carl W. Schmidt
Deputy Director
Office of Eastern European Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
Mr. Edward M. Rowell
Acting Director
Office of Western European Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
~~ Mr. Anthony C. Albrecht
Director
Office of OECD, European Community and
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Bureau of European Affairs
~l Mr. William H. Edgar
Deputy Director
Office of Soviet Union Affairs
Bureau of European Affairs
~~ Mr. John J, Crowley
Office of Northern European Affairs
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~++~ The Honorable Alfred L. Atherton, Jr.
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a~The Honorable Julius Katz'
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Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs-
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Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of Economic and. Business Affairs
~~ Mr. Robert J. Ryan
Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Finance and Development
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
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Deputy Assistant .Secretary
International Trade Poliey
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
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~~ tTr. E. Allan Wendt
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g Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
`~^^`~ The Honorable Harold H. Saunders
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~s= _
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. .._ - r
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~~ P4r: C. Tho?~as Thorne, ?Jr.
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~
~
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~
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~~7 Mr. John Mellor
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N/ME
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Room 6510A, Department of State
~~? Mr. Byron Doenges
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ACDA
Room 804
State Annex 6
Department of State
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 j-~~~rlR~~as~~,00~1~s;H9~~lA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
~~~ The Honorable W. Michael Blumenthal
Secretary of the Treasury
l $~ The Honorable Robert Carswell
,,..Deputy Secretary of the Treasury
~~gThe Honorable Anthony M. Solomon
Under Secretary Designate for. Monetary Affairs
Department of Treasury
`~~ The Honorable C. Fred Bergsten
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Department of the Treasury
/~ 7The Honorable Daniel H. Bri1:L
.Assistant Secretary
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pp Department of Treasury
~9~ Mr. Gary Hufbauer
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Department of Treasury
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Director
Office of East-West Economic Policy ~
Department of Treasury
~~D Mr. F. Lisle Widman
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Department of the Treasury
~fl`~~~Mr. J. Foster Collins
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Department of the Treasury
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Office, of Developing Nations Finance
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Department of the Treasury
/~~
alb
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Mr. Donald E. Syvrud
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Department of the Treasury
Mr. Lewis Bowden
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Department of the Treasury
Mr. Oscar Mackour
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Department of the Treasury
~6~
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Department of the Treasury
?T Mr. William Witherell
Director
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ss~~ Department of the Treasury
?~`~~~Mr. John E. Ray
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~m~
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a~~6 Mr. Frederick L. Springborn
Director
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Department of the Treasury
a+d'~ Mr. Donald Curtis
Director
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Department of the Treasury.
~~? Mr. Peter Bridges
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Department of the Treasury
~~~ Mr. Kevin Broderick
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( 9 cys)' Mr. David N. Laux
_-_ _
Department of Commerce
Room 3520
1- The Honorable Juanita M. Kreps
Secretary of Commerce;
1- The Honorable Jerry J. Jasinowski
Assistant Secretary for Policy;
1- Mr. Haslam
General Counsel Designate
z-
Assistant Secretary for Administration
1- Mr. Edward Miller -
Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary
Energy and Strategic Resources: Policy
1- Mr. S. Stanley Katz
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of International Economic Policy & Research
1- Mr. Fred Siesseger
Director
International Commodity Staff
Office of Energy Strategic Resources Policy
.t
Bureau of Resources and Trade Assistance
Department of Commerce
Deputy Assistant Secretary
~~ ~ Mr. Robert G. Shaw
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of International Commerce
Department of Commerce
?~~~ Mr. J. Michell George
Director
Office of East-West Country Affairs
Bureau of East-West Trade
DIBA-Department of Commerce
Room 4814a
c~ o~, / rlrs . Lucy Fa~COile '.
Director
Office of Policy Development
Office of the Secretary
Department of Commerce
-Room 4323
-10- `
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~~~ Mr. Richard Harding
International Economist
Office of International Trade Policy
Industralized Nations Division
Department of Commerce
Room 3052
_..,
_.
Mr. Stephen M. .Conger
Projects Manager
Major Exports Division
BIC-Department of Commerce
Room 3414
~~ ~Mr. Alan A. Reich
... __.__._....._--._. _. _.~-___-_'.1- -'.'
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of East-West Trade
Department of Commerce
Room 3836
?~?~'~ Mr. Allen Lenz
Director
Office of East-Hest Trade Analysis
Bureau of East-West Trade
Department of Commerce
~~~
Mrs. -Frances L. Hall
Director
International Trade Analysis Division
Office of International Commercial%Relations
Bureau of International Commerce
~~
Mr. Steven V. Dunaway
Balance of Payments Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Room 407
1401 K Street, N.W.
Mr. Jack Bame
Associate Director for
International Economics
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Department of Commerce
Room 601,1441 K Street, N.W.
a~~a
~P~~ The Honorable Robert J. Blackwell
..Assistant Secretary for Maritime Affairs
Department of Commerce
~~ ~ Mr. Richard Garnitz
Acting Director
Office of International TM r
Domestice and Internati,:c~na~ 8~~~~~ss Administration
Department of Commerce
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? -10a-
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~~~ Mr. Frank Vargo
Director
Office of Economic Research
Domestic and International Business Administration
o Room 2039
~~Mr. Daniel Norman
International Economist
Office of Market Planning
Stretegic Planning Division
Bureu of International Commerce
*~~ Department of Commerce
~.J~'Ms. Hertha Heiss
Chief, USSR Division
Office of East-West Trade Development
Bureau of East-West Trade ~
.r
~~~Mr. Louis J. Moczar
Balance of Payments Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
-Room 40$
1401 K Street, N.W.
~~~Mr. Daniel Arill
Director
Investment Policy Division ~
Office of International Finance Investment
Bureau of International ]Economic Policy & Research
Department; of Commerce
~~`Mr. F. Lynn Holec
Trade Negotiations and Agreement Division
Office of International Trade Policy
.Bureau of International Economic Policy & Research
Department of Commerce
Mr Jaseph__Spetrin~:
__ Office. of Trade Policy
- -- -
___ _ Room _ ._ _3 0 3 4' " _ _?
__Departtment of Commerce
----
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/11 :CIA-RDP79B00457A001100060001-5
NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY
STATI NTL
(10 cys)
( 4cys)
ENERGY RESEARCH & DBVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION
DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
GE R.MAL,tTOti+TN , MARYLAND
~~?~?~'~
2-
Col. Fritz Chanetary
Held, Intelligence Section
~~~
1-
Chief, Z Division
Intelligence Analysis
Lawrence Livermore Lab
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~~~Mr. Andrew Marshall
Director, Net Assessment
OSD
Room 3A930, Pentagon
?~~~ Captain R. W. Schmitt
Director of Estimates
Office of Naval Intelligence
~6~-?,^, Room 5B667, Pnntagon
(3 cys) afo', The Honorable David E. i~IcGiffert
Assistant Secretary
International Security Af:Eairs
Department of Defense
~fO~ Mr. J. Robinson West
Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Economic Affairs
International Security Affairs
Department of Defense
6g Mr. Maynard Glitman
Deputy Assistant Secretary
(European and NATO Affairs)
International Seczurity Affairs
Department of Defense
Dr. Brenda Forman
Office of Policy Plans
Internatianal Security Affairs
Department of Defens e
e erase n e igence zcer,DIO/ME
.Room 2C-238, Pentagon
___ (6._cys)~gr1~y Defense Intelligence Agency
of / / Attn: RDS- ~C, A Bldg.
Arlington Hail Station
Chief, Military Expenditures Section
- (DIR-4E1)
1- IPAC IC-1
ST TINTL l-
DE-
STATI NTL
DIA
1- DIA/RDS-3B3 (LIB)
1-
Chief, Latin American Branch
~~ AFIS/DNZADB-3E, Pentagon
Chief, Editing & Briefing Branch
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Mr. John Dale Pafenberg
Hgs.USAF
(AF/INA)
Room 4A$82, Pentagon
Mr. William Silvey
Office of Space Systems
Office of the Administrative Assistant
to the Secretary of the Air Force
Department of the Air Force
Room 4C1000, Pentagon
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` FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
~~r The Arthur I'. Burns
Chairman
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
~d~Mr. Stephen Gardner
Deputy Chairman
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
~~~ Mr. Henry C. Waliich
Member
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
(2 cys} ~~,~ Mr. John E. Reynolds
Director
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
~~~ Mr. JaY C~~arles Partee
Director
Division of Research and Statistics
___ Federal Reserve System
?~ ~~Mr. Reed J. Irvine, Adviser
Hivision of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
~~~Mr. Samuel Pizer, Adviser
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
~~
~t1lr?. Sam Y. Cross
U.S. Executive Director
International Monetary Fund
~~(f Dr. Raymond J. Albright
Vice President for Europe
Export-Import:Bank of the United .States
Mr. Stephen Goodman
Vice President for Policy Analysis
Room 1203
Export-Import Bank of the United States
~~~'Mr. Stephen DuBril
Chairman
Export-Import Bank of the United States
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(2 cys )
General Services Administration
Federal Preparedness Agency
Mr. John Lavery
..,Security Officer
Room 4203
18th & F Streets, N.W.
~~ Mr . Raymond W . Brone z
Office of the Assistant Secretary for
Policy and International Affairs
Department of Transportation
~9` The Honorable Dale Hathaway
Assistant Secretary Designate
International Affairs and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
~~~] Mr. Elmer Klumpp
Assistant to the Assistant Secretary for
International Affairs and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
~~ Mr . Howard ica. Hj ort
- Director
Agricultural Economics
Department of Agriculture "~
~~~ Mr. Joseph W. Willett
Director
Foreign Demand and Competition Division
Economic Research Service
Department of Agriculture
~C~~...David L. Hume
Administrator
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
~~~Mr. George S. Shanklin
Acting beneral Sales Manager
Foreign Agricultural Serive
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Brice Meeker
Assistant Administrator for Foreign Commodity Analysis
Foreign Agricultural Service ,.
Department of Agriculture
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~~j~ Assistant Secretary for Energy and Minerals
Department of the Interior
~~ Mz'. Alexander Holser
Acting Administrator
Ocean Mining Administration
Department of the Interior
Room 3526
18th & C Streets, N.W.
~~National Defense University
Ft. Leslie H. McNair
Washington, D.C. 20319 -
Attn: Classified Library
for: Comandant of National War College
~g>~ Mr. Marshall Westover
Federal Energy Administration
Room 2124
2040 M Street, N.W.
att: Mr. Melvin Conant
~~~ Department of Labor
Mrs. Ann Causey
Office of Management Administration Planning
Bureau of International Labor Affairs
Room S -5214
200 Constitution Ave, N.W.
~~
Mrs.
Hilda O. Scudder
OPIC
Room
613
1129
20th
Street, N.W.
.for
1~Tr.
John -Gun
t~oQm ? 4 4
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INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY ENDING 7 JULY 1977
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DATE:
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 SECRET
' y Approved~For Release 20~,1~dL~8AT'~I~D~~~1~55'I~ 'Ei1b006~0001-5
USE OF INFORMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R8E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
__ SECTION I
NAME AND TELEPHON
CARD1 XX~XXXXX _ _ XXXXX XX XX X XXXXXXXXXXX
CARD
TYPE
(1-2)
SURVEY NO.
(3-8)
DATE PUBLISHED PUBLICATION NUMBER
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TOPICAL CATE
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Interpol Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western Evrope
Military China
Science 8 Technology Other Far East
Geography Near Eost/N. Africo
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECI FI C COUNTRI ES: ~~9 .~'? ~ ~,,cn ,yea ~ ~ ),
TO BE COMPLETED BY R & E
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TOPIC
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(23-24)
(25-28)
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 SECRET ~ `~ ~c ~ ~ ~v ~
A rov -
PUBLICATIONS SOURCE SURVEY
USE OF INFORMATION FROM CO`L.LECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R8E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
S ~~~ ~i~~~~pD
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CARD
DATE PUBLISHED
PUBLICATION NUMBER
CIB PUBLICATION DATE
SURVEY NO.
lt3-t8)
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(9-12)
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USSR
Internal Politics
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Eastern Europe
International Relations
Western Europe
Economics
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Near East/N. Africa
Geography
South Asia
Biography
Africa
Latin America
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