(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050053-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 40
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2001
• Sequence Number: 53
• Publication Date: October 19, 1973
• Content Type: CABLE

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ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF
STATE AND DEFENSE.
&1. //CUBA: NEW ARTILLERY EMPLACEMENTS NEAR THE US NAVAL
BASE AT GUANTANAMO BAY PROBABLY RESULT FROM NORMAL CUBAN CONTINGENCY
PLANNING RATHER THAN FROM A DECISION TO MOVE AGAINST THE BASE.
ARTILLERY EMPLACEMENTS AND
SUPPORT REVETMENTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF CONSTRUCTION
IN EARLY JULY. OTHER NEW ONES HAVE BEEN BEGUN SINCE EARLY AUGUST.
THE NUMBER OF POSITIONS SUGGESTS THAT CUBAN CONTINGENCY PLANS CALL
FOR OCCUPATION OF THE SITES BY A MAXIMUM OF TWO BATTALION-SIZED
ARTILLERY UNITS SHOULD THE NEED ARISE. SOME OF THE EMPLACEMENTS
ARE STILL UNDER CONSTRUCTION, HOWEVER, AND SOME HAVE WATER STANDING
IN THEM. NO ARTILLERY PIECES, SUPPORT EQUIPMENT, OR OTHER WEAPONS
WERE AT OR NEAR THE EMPLACEMENTS, AND NO BUILDUP WAS EVIDENT AT ANY
OF THE NEARBY MILITARY BASES.
CASTRO CLEARLY IS IRRITATED WITH THE US OVER THE LEGAL ATTACH-
MENT ON 2 OCTOBER OF A CUBAN FREIGHTER IN THE PANAMA CANAL BY US
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PAGE 111'
MESS AnF HANIII. INC. INOICA?OR OATE?TIME GROIIP CITP MESSAGE REFERENCE NUMDLR
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AUTHORITIES, THE AR1ED ATTACKS ON CUBAN FISHING BOATS THE FOLLOWING
DAY BY EXILES APPARENTLY BASED IN MIAMI, AND SUSPECTED US SUPPORT
OF THE FORCES THAT OVERTHREW ALLENDE LAST MONTH IN CHILE. THERE
HAS BEEN NO INDICATION, HOWEVER, OF A SHIFT IN CASTRO'S ESTABLISHED
POLICY OF ACHIEVING THE RETURN OF THE BASE THROUGH LEGAL MEANS AT
THE APPROPRIATE TIME." HE RECOGNIZES THE RISKS OF A PRECIPITATE
MOVE, AND IN RECENT YEARS HE HAS SHOWN AN INCREASING TENDENCY TOWARD
POLITICAL PRAGMATISM AND A WILLINGNESS TO LIVE WITH SITUATIONS THAT
HE RESENTS BUT CANNOT DO ANYTHING TO REMEDY. THIS ATTITUDE IS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH INCREASING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURES AND FURTHER
STRAIN IN US-CUBAN RELATIONS WOULD PUT CASTRO'S PRAGMATIC APPROACH TO
THE TEST. {SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM}//
2.//PANAMA: FRUSTRATED IN ITS ATTEMPT TO PRESSURE THE TORRIJOS
REGIME BY HOLDING A 24-HOUR NATIONWIDE BUSINESS SHUTDOWN, THE
BUSINESS COMMUNITY HAS TURNED TO INDIRECT METHODS OF TRYING TO REVERSE"'
THE ADMINISTRATION'S ECONOMIC DIRECTION. SOME BUSINESSMEN ARE
WITHDRAWING FUNDS FROM PANAMANIAN BANKS AND SENDING THEM ABROAD.
ACCORDING TO ONE UNCONFIRMED REPORT, BETWEEN FOUR AND SIX MILLION
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DOLLARS LEFT THE COUNTRY DURING THE 13 TO 15 OCTOBER PERIOD. A
NATIONAL GUARD OFFICER MAINTAINS THAT TOPPRIJOS IS DETERMINED NOT TO
GIVE IN TO THE BUSINESS GROUPS' PRESSURE AND INTENDS TO PRESS AHEAD
WITH IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CONTROVERSIAL RENT CONTROL LAW AND OTHER
PROPOSED MEASURES. SOME BUSINESSMEN
CONCEDE THAT ORRIJOS' CAMPAIGN
TO DIVIDE AND INTIMIDATE THEM HAS HIT THE TARGET; THEY WOULD LIKE
ITO BACK OFF WITHOUT LOSING MORE THAN THEY ALREADY HAVE. NOT ENOUGH
INFORMATION IS YET AVAILABLE TO JUDGE THE IMPACT OF THE MOVEMENT
OF FUNDS ABROAD ON TORRIJOS' PLANS. SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM//
3. BRAZIL: ACCORDING TO NEWSPAPER REPORTS, PETROBRAS, THE
BRAZILIAN STATE PETROLEUM ENTERPRISE, HAS LOCATED A LARGE DEPOSIT IN
THE CAMPOS SEDIMENTARY BASIN, SOME 70 MILES OFFSHORE IN THE
CONTINENTAL SHELF JUST NORTHEAST OF RIO DE JANEIRO. THE OIL BEARING
STRATUM REPORTEDLY IS SOME 200-300 METERS THICK, OR MORE THAN THREE
TIMES THE ST^ATUM THICKNESS OF OTHER. PRODUCING BRAZILIAN OIL FIELDS.
PETROBRAS OFFICIALS.ARE TRYING TO RESTRAIN THEIR EUPHORIA OVER
THE FIND7DESCRIBED AS BEING OF "MIDDLE-EAST PROPORTIONS." IF THEIR
EXPECTATIONS ARE REALIZED, BRAZIL WILL BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE PETROLEUM
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IMPORTS, CURRENTLY THE WEAKEST LINK IN THE DEVELOPING ECONOMY.
BRAZILIANS HAVE BEEN DISAPPOINTZD BEFORE IN THEIR RELENTLESS SEARCH
FOR OIL, BUT THE IMPORTANCE, ECONOMICALLY, POLITICALLY AND PSY-
CHOLOGICALLY O A DISCOVERY THE SIZE OF WHAT CAMPOS PURPORTS TO: BE,
CANNOT BE UNDERESTIMATED. {UNCLASSIFIED}
IL;? ARAB STATES-ISRAEL: BATTLE-LINES ON BOTH FRONTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. PRESIDENT SADAT AND PRIME MINISTER MEIR APPEAR
UNWILLING TO MAKE CONCESSIONS THAT WOULD LEAD TO A CEASE-FIRE.
A SMALL ISRAELI TANK FORCE CROSSED THE SUEZ CANAL NORTH OF
GREAT BITTER LAKE EARLY-ON 16 OCTOBER, APPARENTLY IN AN EFFORT TO
DESTROY EGYPTIAN SAM AND ANTIAIRCRAFT BATTERIES ON:THE WEST BANK.
THE EGYPTIANS CLAIM TO HAVE ENGAGED THE ISRAELI FORCE WITH ARMOR
AND MECHANIZED INFANTRY UNITS, AND TO HAVE INFLICTED HEAVY LOSSES.
AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKESMAN SAID THAT WHAT HE HAD HEARD ABOUT THE
RESULTS OF THE CROSS-CANAL OPERATION HE "WOULD NOT WANT TO INTERPRET %`
... AS GOOD TIDINGS." ISRAELI AIR ACTIVITY ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
WAS MODERATE YESTERDAY, TARGETED AGAINST A VARIETY OF RADAR SITES,
AIRFIELDS, AND TROOP CONCENTRATIONS EAST OF CAIRO, IN THE NORTHERN
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NILE DELTA, IN THE SINAI, AND IN THE GREAT BITTER LAKE AREA-
FIGHTING CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL SECTOR OF THE SYRIAN FRONT.
A COMBINED SYRIhN AND IRAQI FORCE ATTACKED ISRAELI POSITIONS AT
DAWN ON 16 OCTOBER, RESULTING IN HEAVY TANK BATTLES NEAR AL HARRAH.
ISRAELI ARMORED FORCES SUBSEQUENTLY COUNTERATTACKED TOWARD DAYR
AL-ADAS, SOME 15 MILES EAST OF THE CEASE-FIRE LINE. THE ISRAELIS
MAY NOW BE WITHIN FIVE MILES OF THE DAR'A-DAMASCUS ROAD. AN ISRAELI
SPOKESMAN CLAIMED THAT JORDAN'S ARMORED BRIGADE ADVANCED TOWARD
ISRAELI LINES FROM JASIM, BUT PULLED BACK AFTER HAVING SUFFERED
SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES, AND THAT AN IRAQI UNIT WAS "BADLY CHEWED UP."
TEL AVIS'S ANNOUNCED STRATEGY IS TO DESTROY THE FORCES OF OTHER ARAB
STATES "PIECEMEAL" BEFORE THEY CAN JOIN WITH THE SYRIANS IN A
UNIFIED COMMAND. SYRIAN FORCES IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR MAY HAVE AD-
VANCED TWO TO THREE MILES TO TELL ECH CHAAR, OVERLOOKING THE
QUNAYTIRAH-DAMASCUS ROAD- SYRIAN AIRCRAFT MOUNTED RELATIVELY HEAVY
ATTACKS ON ISRAELI GROUND FORCES.
PRESIDENT SADAT, IN A SPEECH ON 16 OCTOBER TO A JOINT SESSION
OF TF;E PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY AND THE ARAB SOCIALIST UNION CENTRAL
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PAOF. OF I-AflI N
ISRAEL HAS' AGREED TO A WITHDRAWAL TO THE BOUNDARIES EXISTING PRIOR
TO THE 1967 ARAB-ISRAELI WAR-i AND THAT UPON COMPLETION OF-SUCH A
COMMITTEE, LAID OUT A TOUGH PEACE PROPOSAL COUPLED WITH SOME HINTS
OF FLEXIBILITY. SADAT'S POSITION-PRESENTED- AS AN' OPEN. LETTER 10
PRESIDENT NIXON--IS THAT EGYPT'WILL ?ACCEPT A CEASE-FIRE WHEN
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WITHDRAWAL, EGYPT WILL ENTER INTO A UN-SPONSORED INTERNATIONAL PEACE
CONFERENCE. THIS' POSITION ON ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL APPEARS TO?BE UN-
EQUIVOCAL, BUT SADAT'S WILLINGNESS TO ENTER INTO AN INTERNATIONAL
PEACE CONFERENCE AND HIS -REPEATED STATEMENTS THAT HE DOES, NOT SEEK
TO ANNIHILATE ISRAEL SUGGEST THAT HE MAY LATER ACCEPT MINOR COM-
PROMISES. SADAT MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE WILL NOT BACK PALESTINIAN
CLAIMS TO 'THE' TERRITORY' OF ISRAEL PROPER, ALTHOUGH-HE DID CAL!.
FOR SOME RECOGNITION OF PALESTINIAN RIGHTS. IN A REFERENCE ALMOST
CERTAINLY DESIGNED BOTH 70 INTIMIDATE ISRAEL AND TO DEMONSTRATE
THAT EGYPT IS EXERCISING RESTRAINT, SADAT CLAIMED-THAT "EGYPTIAN
ARAB ROCKETS" APE CAPABLE OF STRIKING AT ANY POINT IN ISRAEL, BUT
THAT HE IS "AWARE or THE RESPONSIuILITY OF USING CERTAIN TYPES OF
ARMS."
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IN HER SPEECH TO THE KNESSET ON THE SAME DAY, PRIME MINISTER
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METR SAID THAT TEL AVIV WOULD' NEVER AGREE TO A CEASE-FIRE PREDICATED
ON.AN ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL TO THE 196? BORDERS. A CEASE-FIRE WILL ONLY
COME ABOUT, ACCORDING TO THE PRIME MINISTER, WHEN THE ARABS ARE
DEFEATED ON BOTH FRONTS. MEIR VOICED COMPLETE DISBELIEF IN ARAB
CLAIMS THAT THEIR GOAL IS LIMITED TO RETAKING TERRITORY LOST DURING
THE 1967 HOSTILITIES, CHARGING THAT THE ARAB AIM IS THE DESTRUCTION
OF ISRAEL. "THIS IS A WAR AGAINST OUR VERY EXISTENCE AS A STATE
AND A PEOPLE." IN COMMENTING ON THE MILITARY SITUATION, SHE AVOIDED
EXTRAVAGANT CLAIMS, REPORTING ONLY THAT SYRIA'S "STRATEGIC INFRA-
STRUCTURE" HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGED AND THAT "SIGNS INDICATE THAT
EGYPT'S-INITIATIVE HAS BEEN DESTROYED."
MORE SOVIET CARGO TRANSPORTS FLEW TO THE MIDDLE EAST ON 16
OCTOBER THAN ON ANY OTHER DAY SINCE THE AIRLIFT BEGAN ON 10 OCTOBER.
THE SEVEN-DAY TOTAL OF CARGO TRANSPORT FLIGHTS TO ARAB COMBATANTS
IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 360. THE SOVIETS PROBABLY ARE DELIVERING
EQUIPMENT AND ORDNANCE SUCH AS SURFACE-TO-AIR AND AIR--TO-AIR MISSILES,
AIR DEFENSE RADARS, CRITICAL SPARE PARTS, AND POSSIBLY ANTIAIRCRAFT
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25X1A
//SOVIET MEDIA CONTINUE TO ISSUE BRIL.F, STRAIGHT-FORWARD
ACCOUNTS OF US ARMS DELIVERIES TO ISRAEL. A MOSCOW RADIO BROADCAST
YESTERDAY REPEATED A WESTERN WIRE SERVICE REPORT THAT US AIR FORCE
TRANSPORTS HAD STARTED ARRIVING IN ISRAEL. ANOTHER MOSCOW BROAD-
CAST, BEAMED TO THE ARAB WORLD, FOCUSED ON THE NEED FOR PEACE,
.BUT CHASTISED PRIME MINISTER MEIR FOR HER INSISTENCE THAT PEACE
IS CONTINGENT ON THE RETURN TO THE 6 OCTOBER CEASE-FIRE LINES.//
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ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF
DEFENSE AND STATE.
&1. THAILAND: THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS TAKING STEPS TO
ASSERT ITS AUTHORITY.
PRIME MINISTER SANYA'S NEWLY APPOINTED CABINET
HELD ITS FIRST MEETING ON 16 OCTOBER AND PROMPTLY
ANNOUNCED AMNESTY FOR THOSE WHO TOOK PART IN THE
STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS. THE CABINET ALSO AGREED TO
APPOINT A COMMITTEE TO BEGIN DRAFTING A NEW CONSTI-
TUTION, WHICH WAS ONE OF THE KEY DEMANDS OF THE STU-
DENTS. THE NEW PRIME MINISTER HAS PLEDGED THAT A
NEW CONSTITUTION WILL BE PROMULGATED AND ELECTIONS
HELD WITHIN SIX MONTHS.
AN EFFORT IS ALSO UNDER WAY TO EMPHASIZE THAT
ALL THAI NOW SHARE A COMMON INTEREST IN RETURNING
THE COUNTRY TO NORMALITY AND REPAIRING THE DAMAGE
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GOVERNMENT, FOR EXAMPLE,
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HAS BROADCAST INTERIOR MINISTRY ORDERS TO THE PROV-
INCES- ASKING FOR AN URGENT ESTIMATE- OF. THE' LOSS OF
LIFE AND PROPERTY AND THE COST OF REPAIRING FACIL-
ITIES. THE NATIONAL STUDENT CENTER HAS ALSO ISSUED
A STATEMENT, CLEARLY AT THE GOVERNMENT'S BEHEST,
ASKING THE PEOPLE TO SUPPORT THE* GOVERNMENT AS ONE
OF THE "PEOPLE." 'IT ALSO STATES THAT THE STUDENTS
ARE COOPERATING WITH THE POLICE; THIS IS PROBABLY
AN ATTEMPT TO PEI' UADE THE DEMORALIZED METROPOLITAN
POLICE TO RETURN TO THEIR POSTS.
//IT APPEARS THAT THE. KING IS STILL PLAYING A
PIVOTAL ROLE. EPORTS THAT THE KING IS
STILL GIVING INSTRUCTIONS TO ARMY CHIEF KRIT, AND
OF PRIME: MINIS?+ ER SANYA CLAIMED
THAT HE WOULD HE A FAITHFUL SERVANT OF THE KING.
THIS ASSESSMENT OF SANYA COINCIDES WITH AMBASSADOR
UNDER' S VIE-W THAT .;ANYA. I`: A M N :IIO HAS LITTLE
TASTE FOR PARTICIPATION IN POLITICS. THE AMBASSADOR
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REPORTS THAT SANYA SHARES THE KING'S ANTI-COMMUNIST
PER
VIEWS AND IN THE PAST HAD EXPRESSED SYMPATHY WITH US
OBJECTIVES IN INDOCHINA.//
//IF THE KING CONTINUES TO PLAY THIS ROLE, IT
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR CHANGE
IN THAI POLICY WITH RESPECT TO RELATIONS WITH THE US
AND THE PRESENCE OF US FORCES IN THAILAND. THUS FAR
THE NEW GOVERNMENT HAS SAID NOTHING PUBLICLY ON THESE
ISSUES. THIS MAY REFLECT ITS PREOCCUPATION WITH MORE
PRESSING MATTERS .//{SECRET}
2. CAMBODIA: PHNOM PENH'S RICE SITUATION REMAINS PRECARIOUS,
DESPITE GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO INCREASE THE AVAILABILITY
OF SUPPLIES. AS OF 16 OCTOBER, GOVERNMENT RICE STOCKS
ARE ESTIMATED AT ROUGHLY AN 11-DAY SUPPLY. GOVERNMENT
AUTHORITIES HAVE AGREED TO REDUCE FURTHER THE AMOUNT OF
RICE DISTRIBUTED DAILY AND TO REJECT THE ARMY'S REQUEST
FOR REINSTATEMENT OF ITS FORMER ALLOTMENT. DAILY DIS-
TRIBUTION IS NOW ALMOST 30 PERCENT BELOW THAT OF A MONTH
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AGO. AIRLIFTING OF RICE FROM BATTAMBANG, KOMPONG CHHNANG,
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AND SAIGON CONTINLIES; THESE OPERATIONS NOW ARE PROVIDING
ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF PHNOM PENH'S DAILY REQUIREMENTS.
THE NEXT SHIPMENT OF THAI RICE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE ON 22 OCTOBER, AND SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHIPMENTS ARE
DUE BEGINNING 27 OCTOBER. SAIGON WEPOft, T. EE9b 'I; E
AVAILABLE 5,000 TONS OF RICE FOR SPECIAL DELIVERY TO
CAMBODIA; ! *HE-RE S -M6-fIR11^IN`ICA-TTfNYET-'OF ANY
SIIA S.
STOCKS OF CIVILIAN PETROLEUM PRODUCTS REMAIN AMPLE,
AND WILL BE ADDED TO BY A MEKONG CONVOY SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE IN PHNOM PENH ON 16 OCTOBER. {SECRET}
&5. ARAB STATES - ISREAL: BATTLE LINES ON BOTH
FRONTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. PRESIDENT SADAT
AND PRIME MINISTER MEIR APPEAR UNWILLING TO MAKE
CONCESSIONS THAT WOULD LEAD TO A CEASE-FIRE-
A SMALL :7%N'I+.ELI TANK FORCE CROSSED THE SUEZ
CANAL NORTH OF THE GREAT BITTER LAKE EARLY 01 \116 OCTOBER,
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APPARENTLY IN AN EFFORT TO DESTROY EGYPTIAN SAM AND
ANTIAIRCRAFT BATTERIES ON THE WEST BANK. THE EGYP-
TIANS CLAIM TO HAVE ENGAGED THE ISRAELI FORCE WITH
ARMOR AND MECHANIZED INFANTRY UNITS, AND TO HAVE IN-
FLICTED HEAVY LOSSES. AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKESMAN
SAID THAT WHAT HE HAD HEARD ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THE
CROSS-CANAL OPERATION HE "WOULD NOT WANT TO INTERPRET...AS
GOOD TIDINGS." ISRAELI AIR ACTIVITY ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
WAS MODERATE YESTERDAY, TARGETED AGAINST A VARIETY OF
RADAR SITES, AIRFIELDS, AND TROOP CONCENTRATIONS EAST OF
CAIRO, IN THE NORTH HERN NILE DELTA, IN THE SINAI, AND IN
THE GREAT BITTER LAKE AREA.
FIGHTING CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL SECTOR OF THE
SYRIAN FRONT. A COMBINED SYRIAN AND IRAQI FORCE AT-
TACKED ISRAELI POSITIONS AT DAWN ON 16 OCTOBER, RESULTING
IN HEAVY TANK BATTLES NEAR AL HARRAH. ISRAELI ARMORED
FORCES SUBSEQUENTLY COUNTERATTACKED TOWARD
UAYR AL-ADAS, SOME 15 MILES EAST OF THE CEASE-FIRE
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LINE. THE ISRAELIS MAY NOW BE WITHIN FIVE MILES OF
PER _#.
THE DAR'A-DAMASCUS ROAD. AN ISRAELI SPOKESMAN CLAIMED
THAT JORDAN'S ARMORED BRIGADE ADVANCED TOWARD ISRAELI
LINES FROM JASIM, BUT PULLEii BACK AFTER HAVING SUF-
FERED SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES, AND THAT AN IRAQI UNIT WAS
"BADLY CHEWED UP." TEL AVIV'S ANNOUNCED STRATEGY
IS TO DESTROY THE FORCES OF OTHER ARAB STATES "PIECE-
MEAL" BEFORE THEY CAN JOIN WITH THE SYRIANS IN A
UNIFIED COMMAND. SYRIAN FORCES IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR MAY HAVE AD-
VANCED TWO TO THREE MILES TO TELL ECH CHAAR, OVER-
LOOKING THE QUNAYTIRAH-DAMASCUS ROAD. SYRIAN AIRCRAFT MOUNTED
RELATIVELY HEAVY ATTACKS ON ISRAELI GROUND FORCES.
PRESIDENT SAPAT, IN A SPEECH ON 16 OCTOBER TO A JOINT
SESSION OF THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY AND THE ARAB SOCIAL-
IST UNION CENTRAL COMMITTEE, LAID OUT A TOUGH PEACE
PROPOSAL COUPLED WITH SOME HINTS OF FLEXIBILITY.
SADAT'S POSITION--PRESENTED AS AN OPEN LETTER TO PRES-
IDENT NIXON--IS THAT EGYPT WILL ACCEPT A CEASE-FIRE
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WHEN ISRAEL HAS AGREED TO A WITHDRAWAL TO THE BOUND-
ARIES EXISTING PRIOR TO THE 1967 ARAB-ISRAELI WAR,
AND THAT UPON COMPLETION OF SUCH A WITHDRAWAL, EGYPT
WILL ENTER INTO A UN-SPONSORED INTERNATIONAL PEACE
CONFERENCE. THIS POSITION ON ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL AP-
PEARS TO BE UNEQUIVOCAL, BUT SADAT'S WILLINGNESS TO
ENTER INTO AN INTERNATIONAL PEACE CONFERENCE AND HTS
REPEATED STATEMENTS THAT HE DOES NOT?SEEK TO ANNIHI--
LATE ISRAEL SUGGEST THAT HE MAY LATER ACCEPT MINOR
COMPROMISES. SADAT MADE IT CLEi.R THAT HE WILL. NOT
BACK PALESTINIAN CLAIMS TO THE 'TERRITORY 01: ISRAEL
PROPER, ALTHOUGH HE DID CALL FOR SOME RECOGNITION OF
PALESTINIAN RIGHTS. IN A REFERENCE ALMOST CERTAINLY
DESIGNED BOTH TO INTIMIDATE ISRAEL AND TO DEMONSTRATE
THAT EGYPT IS EXERCISING RESTRAINT, SADAT CLAIMED
THAT "EGYPTIAN-ARAB ROCKETS" ARE CAPABLE OF STRIKING
AT ANY POINT IN ISRAEL, BUT THAT HE IS "AWARE OF THE
RESPONSIBILITY OF USING CERTAIN TYPES OF ARMS."
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IN HER SPEECH TO THE KNESSET ON THE SAME DAY, PRIME
MINISTER MEIR SAID THAT TEL AVIV WOULD NEVER AGREE
TO A CEASE-FIRE PREDICATED ON AN ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL
TO THE 1967 BORDERS. A CEASE-FIRE WILL ONLY COME
ABOUT, ACCORDING TO THE PRIME MINISTER, WHEN THE
ARABS ARE DEFEATED ON BOTH FRONTS. MEIR VOICED COM-
PLETE DISBELIEF IN ARAB CLAIMS THAT THEIR GOAL IS
LIMITED TO RETAKING TERRITORY LOST DURING THE 1967
HOSTILITIES, CHARGING THAT THE ARAB AIM IS THE DE-
STRUCTION OF ISRAEL. "THIS IS A WAR AGAINST OUR
VERY EXI.'TENCE AS A STATE AND A PEOPLE." IN COMMENT-
ING ON THE MILITARY SITUATION, SHE AVOIDED EXTRAVAGANT
CLAIMS, REPORTING ONLY THAT SYRIA'S "STRATEGIC INFRA-
STRUCTURE" HAS DEEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGED AND THAT "SIGNS
INDICATE THAT EGYPT'S INITIATIVE HAS BEEN DESTROYED."
MORE SOVIET CARGO TRANSPORTS FLEW TO THE MID-
DLE EAST ON 16 OCTOBER THAN ON ANY OTHER DAY SINCE
THE AIRLIFT BEGAN ON 10 OCTOBER. THE SEVEN-DAY TOTAL
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OF CARGO TRANSPORT FLIGHTS TO ARAB COMBATANTS IS NOW
APPROXIMATELY 360. THE SOVIETS PROBABLY ARE
DELIVERING EQUIPMENT AND ORDNANCE SUCH AS SURFACE-TO-
AIR AND AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES, AIR DEFENSE RADARS, CRIT-
ICAL SPARE PARTS, AND POSSIBLY ANTIAIRCRAFT AMMUNITION.
//SOVIET MEDIA CONTINUE TO ISSUE BRIEF, STRAIGHT-
FORWARD ACCOUNTS OF US ARMS DELIVERIES TO ISRAEL. A
MOSCOW RADIO BROADCAST YESTERDAY REPEATED A WESTERN
WIRE SERVICE REPORT THAT US AIR FORCE TRANSPORTS HAD
STARTED ARRIVING IN ISRAEL. ANOTHER MOSCOW BROADCAST,
BEAMED TO THE ARAB WORLD, FOCUSED ON THE NEED FOR
PEACE, BUT CHASTISED PRIME MINISTER MEIR FOR HER IN-
SISTENCE THAT PEACE IS CONTINGENT ON THE RETURN TO
THE 6 OCTOBER CEASE-FIRE LINES.//{SECRET}E-2 IMPDETdi1
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ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH TIHE DEPARTMENTS
OF STATE AND DEFENSEM.
&1. ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: BATTLE LINES ON BOTH
FRONTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. PRESIDENT SADAT
AND PRIME MINISTER MEIR APPEAR UNWILLING TO MAKE
CONCESSIONS THAT WOULD LEAD TO A CEASE-FIRE.
A SMALL ISRAELI TANK FORCE CROSSED THE SUEZ
CANAL NORTH OF THE GREAT BITTER LAKE EARLY ON 16 OCTOBER,
APPARENTLY IN AN EFFORT TO DESTROY EGYPTIAN SAM AND
ANTIAIRCRAFT BATTERIES ON THE WEST BANK. THE EGYP-
TIANS CLAIM TO HAVE ENGAGED THE ISRAELI FORCE WITH
ARMOR AND MECHANIZED INFANTRY UNITS, AND TO HAVE IN-
FLICTED HEAVY LOSSES. AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKESMAN
SAID THAT WHAT HE HAD HEARD ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THE
CROSS-CANAL OPERATION HE "WOULD NOT WANT TO INTERPRET ...AS
GOOD TIDINGS." ISRAELI AIR ACTIVITY ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
WAS MODERATE YESTERDAY, TARGETED AGAINST A VARIETY OF
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CAIRO, IN THE NORTWHERN NILE DELTA, IN THE SINAI, AND IN
THE GREAT BITTER LAKE AREA.
FIGHTING CONTINUES IN THE (.%NTRAL SECTOR OF THE
SYRIAN FRONT. A COMBINED SYRIAN AND IRAQI FORCE AT=
TACKED ISRAELI POSITIONS AT DAWN ON 16. OCTOBER, RESULTING
IN HEAVY TANK BATTLES NEAR AL HARRAH. ISRAELI ARMORED
FORCES SUBSEQUENTLY COUNTERATTACKED TOWARD
DAYR AL-ADAS,.SOME 15 MILES EAST OF THE CEASE-FIRE
LINE. THE ISRAELIS MAY NOW BE WITHIN FIVE MILES OF
THE DARIA-DAMASCUS ROAD. AN ISRAELI SPOKESMAN CLAIMED
THAT JORDAN'S ARMORED BRIGADE ADVANCED TOWARD ISRAELI
LINES FROM JASIM, BUT PULLED BACK AFTER HAVING SUF-
FERED SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES, AND THAT AN IRAQI UNIT WAS
"BADLY CHEWED UP." TEL AVIV'S ANNOUNCED STRATEGY
IS TO DESTROY THE FORCES OF OTHER ARAB STATES "PIECE-
MEAL" BEFORE THEY CAN JOIN WITH THE SYRIANS IN A
UNIFIED COMMAND. SYRIAN FORCES IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR MAY HAVE AD-
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VANCED TWO TO THREE MILES TO TELL ECH CHAAR, OVER-
LATE ISRAEL SUGGEST THAT HE MAY LATER ACCEPT MINOR
REPEATED STATEMENTS THAT HE DOES NOT SEEK TO ANNTHI-
ENTER INTO AN INTERNATIONAL PEACE CONFERENCE AND HIS
PEARS TO BE UNEQUIVOCAL, BUT SADAT'S WILLINGNESS TO
CONFERENCE. THIS POSITION ON ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL AP-
WILL ENTER INTO A UN-SPONSORED INTERNATIONAL PEACE
AND THAT UPON COMPLETION OF SUCH A WITHDRAWAL, EGYPT
ARIES EXISTING PRIOR TO THE 196? ARAB-ISRAELI WAR,
WHEN ISRAEL HAS AGREED TO A WITHDRAWAL TO THE BOUND-
IDENT NIXON--IS THAT EGYPT WILL ACCEPT A CEASE-FIRE
SADAT'S POSITION--PRESENTED AS AN OPEN LETTER TO PRES-
IST UNION CENTRAL COMMITTEE, LAID OUT A'TOUGH PEACE
PROPOSAL COUPLED WITH SOME HINTS OF FLEXIBILITY.
SESSION OF THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY AND THE ARAB SOCIAL-
PRESIDENT SADAT, IN A SPEECH ON 16 OCTOBER TO A JOINT
RELATIVELY HEAVY ATTACKS ON ISRAELI GKOUND FORCES.
LOOKING THE QUNAYTIRAH-DAMASCUS ROAD. SYRIAN AIRCRAFT MOUNTED
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COMPROMISES. SADAT MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE WILL NOT
BACK PALESTINIAN CLAIMS TO THE TERRITORY OF ISRAEL
PROPER, ALTHOUGH HE DID CALL FOR SOME RECOGNITION OF
PALESTINIAN RIGHTS. IN A REFERENCE ALMOST CERTAINLY
DESIGNED BOTH TO INTIMIDATE ISRAEL AND TO DEMONSTRATE
THAT EGYPT IS EXERCISING RESTRAINT, SADAT CLAIMED
THAT "EGYPTIAN-ARAB ROCKETS" ARE CAPABLE OF STRIKING
AT ANY POINT IN ISRAEL, BUT THAT HE IS "AWARE OF THE
RESPONSIBILITY OF USING CERTAIN TYPES OF ARMS."
IN HER SPEECH TO THE KNESSET ON THE SAME DAY, PRIME
MINISTER MEIR SAID THAT TEL AVIV WOULD NEVER AGREE
TO A CEASE-FIRE PREDICATED ON AN ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL
TO THE 1967 BORDERS. A CEASE-FIRE WILL ONLY COME
ABOUT, ACCORDING TO THE PRIME MINISTER, WHEN THE
ARABS ARE DEFEATED ON BOTH FRONTS. MEIR VOICED COM-
PLETE DISBELIEF IN ARAB CLAIMS THAT THEIR GOAL IS
LIMITED TO RETAKING TERRITORY LOST DURING THE 1967
HOSTILITIES, CHARGING THAT THE ARAB AIM IS THE DE-
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STRUCTION OF ISRAEL. "THIS IS A WAR AGAINST OUR
VERY EXISTENCE AS A STATE AND A PEOPLE-" IN COMMENT-
ING ON THE MILITARY SITUATION, SHE AVOIDED EXTRAVAGANT
CLAIMS, REPORTING ONLY THAT SYRIA'S "STRATEGIC INFRA-
STRUCTURE" HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGED AND THAT "SIGNS
INDICATE THAT EGYPT'S INITIATIVE HAS BEEN DESTROYED."
MORE SOVIET CARGO TRANSPORTS FLEW TO THE MID-
DLE EAST ON 16 OCTOBER THAN ON ANY OTHER DAY SINCE
THE AIRLIFT BEGAN ON 10 OCTOBER. THE SEVE.,j-DAY TOTAL
OF CARGO TRANSPORT FLIGHTS TO ARAB COMBATANTS IS NOW
APPROXIMATELY 360. THE SOVIETS PROBABLY ARE
DELIVERING EQUIPMENT AND ORDNANCE SUCH AS SURFACE-TO-
AIR AND AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES, AIR DEFENSE RADARS, CRIT-
ICAL SPARE PARTS, AND POSSIBLY ANTIAIRCRAFT AMMUNITION.
//SOVIET MEDIA CONTINUE TO ISSUE BRIEF, STRAIGHT-
FORWARD ACCOUNTS OF US ARMS DELIVERIES TO ISRAEL. A
MOSCOW RADIO BROADCAST YESTERDAY REPEATED A WESTERN
WIRE SERVICE REPORT THAT US AIR FORCE TRANSPORTS HAD
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STARTED ARRIVING IN ISRAEL. ANOTHER MOSCOW BROADCAST,
DISSEM
PER
BEAMED TO THE ARAB WORLD, FOCUSED ON THE NEED FOR
PEACE, BUT CHASTISED PRIME MINISTER MEIR FOR HER IN-
SISTENCE THAT PEACE IS CONTINGENT ON THE RETURN TO
THE 6 OCTOBER CEASE-FIRE LINES .//{SECRET3?
&112. ^TURKEY: THE LEFT OF CENTER REPUBLICAN
PEOPLES PARTY WON A PLURALITY IN LAST SUNDAY'S ELECTIONS
BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING A DURABLE GOVERN-
MENT.
REPUBLICAN LEADER BULENT ECEVIT LED HIS PARTY TO ITS
FIRST VICTORY SINCE 1961, WINNING 184 SEATS IN THE 450-
MEMBER PARLIAMENT. THE JUSTICE PARTY SUFFERED A SEVERIE
SETBACK, WITH ONLY 149 SEATS. TWO RIGHT WING PARTIES
RUNNING FOR THE FIRST TIME CUT DEEPLY INTO JUSTICEI'S
STRENGTH: THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRATIC PARTY,
WHICH WON 44 SEATS, AND THE ISLAMIC NATIONAL SALVATION
PARTY, WITH 149 SEATS. THE LATTER APPEALS TO NATIONAL-
ISTIC AND RELIGIOUS SENTIMENTS, AND ADVOCATES A NAIVE
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"SHARE THE SWEALTH" SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY.
JUSTICE'S LACKLUSTER CAMPAIGN AND ECEVIT'S SPRINTED
ATTACK AGAINST ITS RECORD ON ALL FRONTS CONTRIBUTED
TO JUSTICE'S DECLINE.
FORIMER PRIME MINISTER DEMIREL AND OTHER JUSTICE
PARTY LEADERS HAVE ALREADY RULED OUT JOINING ECEVIT
IN A COALITION. IF THEY PERSIST IN THIS STAND, THE
MODERN, SECULAR, SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY MAY BE
FORCED TO SEEK A FRAGILE COALITION WITH EITHER OF
THE TWO SMALL, RIGHTIST PARTIES THAT NOW HOLD THE
BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PARLIAMENT. A COALITION
WITH EITHER COULD BREAK AT THE FIRST STRAIN. OTHER
POSSIBILITIES ARE A CONSERVATIVE COALITION LED BY
JUSTICE, OR A MINORITY GOVERNMENT LED BY ECEVIT.
NONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PRODUCE A STABLE,
EFFECTIVE GOVERNMENT, HOWEVER, AND THERE IS SPECU-
LATION THAT NEW ELECTIONS MAY HAVE TO BE CALLED.
THE MILITARY, WHICH FORCED DEMIREL TO REISIGN
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TWO AND A HALF YEARS AGO AND TIHEN GAVE BACKSTAGE
DIRECTIONS TO INTERIM GOVERNMENTS, HAS SO FAR
KEPT IN THE BACKGROUND BUT A PROLONGED POLITICAL
CRISIS COULD RESULT IN (RENEWED MILITARY INTER-
VENTION. {CONFIDENTIAL}
3. PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN: THE POSSIBILITY OF
CLASHES WILL INCREASE IF PAKISTAN FOLLOWS THROUGH
ON A DUECISION TO STATION TROOPS ALONG THE BORDER.
PRIME MINISTER BHUTTO, ON A VISIT TO IRAN, TOLD
HIS HOSTS THAT HE INTENDS TO MOVE TROOPS RIGHT UP TO
THE FRONTIER WITH AFGHANISTAN. HE NOTED THAT SUCCES-
SIVE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENTS SINCE (INDEPENDENCE IN
1947 HAD KEPT THEIR TROOPS AT A DISTAINCE FROM THE
BORDER SO AS NOT TO SEEM PROVOCATIVE TO THE AFGHANS.
HE CLAIMED HE NO LONGER FELT COMFORTABLE WITH THIS
ARRANGEMENT SINCE THE INSTALLATION OF THE NEW
GOVERNMENT IN KABUL FOLLOWING THE COUP LAST JULY.
KABUL HAS NEVER RECOGNIZED THE DURAND LINE,
PER __._#_.._
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ESTABLISHED IN 1893 TO SEPARATE BRITISH INDIA AND
AFGHANISTAN, AS IUlTS BOUNDARY WITH PAKISTAN, AND
HAS MEDDLED PERIODICALLY AMONG THE TRIBES AN THE
PAKISTANI SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RELATIONS WITH ISLAM-
ABAD WHICH WAVE DETERIORATED STEADILY SINCE MOHAMMAD
DAUD KHAN TOOK POWER IN JULY, WILL COME'UNDER SEVERE
STRAIN IF BHUTTO CARRIES THROUGH WITH HIS PLANNED
MOVEMENT OF TROIOPS. KABUL HAS ALREADY-REACTED
STRONGLY AGAINST REPORTED PAKISTANI PILANS TO HAVE
THE ARMY REACTIVATE AN OLD ROADBUILDING PROJECT CLOSE
TO THE BORDER. IF THE AFGHANS SHOULD ALSO MOVE TROOPS
TO THE BORDER AREA OR ENCOURAGE FRIE':iLY TRIBESMEN
TO ACT AGAINST THE PAKISTANIS, ISOLATED ARMED
CLASHES COULD (OCCUR. {SECRET}
&4. INTERNATIONAL OIL: THE PERSIIAN GULF
MEMBERS OF THE ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING
COUNTRIES {OPEC} HAVE DECIDED TO PRESENT WESTERN
OIL COMPANIES WITH A "TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT"
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DEMAND FOR A 70 PERCENT INCREASE IN CRUDE OIL POSTED
PRICES. THE COMPANIES--WITH LITTLE LEVERAGE IN THE
CURRENT SELLERS' MARKET--PROBABLY WILL BE FORCED TO
ACCEPTi OPEC'S DEMANDS, FOR A PRICE INCREASE, ALTHOUGH
FIRST VOICED LAST JUNE, HAVE PROBABLY BEEN STRENGTHENED
BY THE CRISIS ATMOSPHERE OF THE CURRENT'ARAB-ISRAELI
HOSTILITIES.
NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN OPEC AND WESTERN OIL COMPANIES
ON THE PRICE ISSUE BECAME DEADLOCKED LAST WEEK WHEN THE
PRODUCERS ASKED FOR A 100 PERCENT INCREASE AND THE
COMPANIES OFFERED 15 PERCENT. HISTORICALLY, PERSIAN'
GULF OIL PRICES HAVE BEEN SET EITHER BY THE COMPANIES
ALONE OR THROUGH NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE OIL-PRODUCING
GOVERNMENTS. THE PERSIAN GULF COUNTRIES SUPPLY
ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE OIL IN WORLD TRADE.
MOREOVER, TIHE OTHER MEMBERS OF OPEC ARE CERTAIN
TO RAISE THEPIR PRICES TO REFLECT-THE PERSIAN
GULF INCREASES.
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IF rHE COMPANIES ACCEPT, PERSIAN GULF OIL REVENUES
IN 1974 WILL BE INCREASED BY ABOUT $10 BILLIONU AND THE
REVENUES OF THE OTHER OPEC MEMBERS WILL INCREASE IBY
(ABOUT $5 BILLION. SKYROCKETING OIL REVENUES WILL
ACCELERATE FOREIGN ASSET ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS OF
SEVERAL PERSIAN GULF COUNTRIES. THE 1974 OIL REVENUES
OF SAUDI ARABIA, ABU DHABI, QATAR, AND KUWAIT--ALL OF
WHICH HAVE LIMITED ABILITIES TO ABSORIB CAPITAL--WILL
APPROACH THE AMOUNTIS WHICH WERE ONLY RECENTLY BEING
ESTIMATED FOR 1980.
ALMOST ALL OF THE INCREASE WILL BE REUFLECTED IN
THE OIL IMPORT BILLS OF WESTERN EUROPE, AND JAPAN.
THE INCREASED COST IN 1974 WOULD PROBABLY BE ABOUT//
$3 BILLION TO THE USI,/./ NEARLY $8 BILLION TO WESTERN
EURSSOPE AND ALMOST $3 BILLION TO JAPAN. SOME OF THE
INCREASED COST, HOWEVER, WOULD RETURN TO THE INDUS-
TRIALIZED COUNTRIES THROUGHU THE SALE OF GOODS AND
SERVICES TO THE PRODUCING COUNTRIES AND REPATRIATION
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 057.
ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF
STATE AND DEFENSE....
&1. ICELAND-UK: LEADERS OF BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE
ADOPTED A CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT, SUBJECT `TO THE AP-
PROVAL OF THEIR GOVERNMENTS, THAT OFFERS SOME HOPE
OF ENDING THE 14-MONTH-OLD COD WAR.//
//PRIME MINISTER JOHANNESSO'N MET WITH PRIME MINIS-
TER HEATH IN LOND,ON;^111^ 15-16 OCTOBER?OSTENSIBLYONLY TO
FORMALIZE THE DE FACTO-TRUCE THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
BY BOTH SIDES SINCE 3.OCTOB.ER. JOHANNESSON WAS NOT
ACCOMPANIED BY REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE OTHER TWO
PARTIES IN HIS COALITION--THE COMMUNISTS AND THE
LIBERAL LEFT ORGANIZATION--ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT
THE TALKS WOULD ONLY CONCERN DETAILS OF THE TRUCE.
THE COMMUNISTS,?PARTICULARL,Y FISHERIES MINISTER
JOSEFSSON, ARE LIKELY TO OBJECT TO JOHANNESSON'S UNI-
LATERAL ACTION UNLESS THE AGREEMENT TURNS OUT TO BE
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EXTREMELY FAVORABLE TO ICELAND.//
//DETAILS OF THE DRAFT AGREEMENT HAVE NOT BEEN
PUBLICIZED, BUT INITIAL PRESS REPORTS FROM REYKJAVIK
INDICATE THAT IT INVOLVES LIMITING THE: SIZE AND
NUMBER OF BRITISH TRAWLERS AND CONFINING THEM TO
SPECIFIC FISHING ZONES rd:L"THIN THE DISPUTED 5Q-MILE
LIMIT. THE ANNUAL CATCH LIMIT FOR THE BRITISH,
WHO HAD ACCEPTED A REDUCTION TO 145,000 TCNS BEFORE
NEGOTIATIONS BROKE OFF IN MAY, PROBABLY WAS REDUCED
STILL MORE AS A CONCESSION TO REYKJAVIK, WHICH PRE-
25X1C VIOUSLY DEMANDED A LIMIT OF 117,000 TONS. ACCORDING
TO AGREEMENT, IF APPROVED,
WOULD BE AN INTERIM SOLUTION, LASTING ONLY ABOUT
TWO YEARS. THE TWO LEADERS EVIDENTLY DID NOT SEEK
A MORE DURABLE AGREEMENT BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE THAT
PERMANENT LEGISLATION CONCERNING MARITIME JURISDIC-
TION SHOULD AWAIT THE UN LAW OF THE SEA CONFERENCE
THAT'BEGINS NEXT YEAR.//
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//UNLESS THE TERMS OF THE DRAFT AGREEMENT ARE
PARTICULARLY HARSH TO BRITISH FISHERMEN, PARLIAMENT
PROBABLY WILL RATIFY THE ARRANGEMENT WITHOUT A
FIGHT. THE AGREEMENT MAY FACE TOUGH SLEDDING IN
REYKJAVIK, HOWEVER, IF THE COMMUNISTS BELIEVE THEY
CAN GENERATE MASSIVE PROTESTS. {CONFIDENTIALI//
2. ^ ARAB STATES - ISREAL: BATTLE LINES ON BOTH
FRONTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. PRESIDENT SADAT
AND PRIME 'MINISTER MEIR APPEAR UNWILLING TO MAKE
CONCESSIONS THAT WOULD LEAD TO A CEASE-FIRE..
A SMALL ISRAELI TANK FORCE CROSSED THE SUEZ
CANAL NORTH OF THE GREAT BITTER LAKE EARLY ON 16 OCTOBER,
APPARENTLY IN AN EFFORT TO DESTROY EGYPTIAN SAM AND
ANTIAIRCRAFT BATTERIES ON THE WEST BANK. THE EGYP-
TIANS CLAIM TO HAVE ENGAGED THE ISRAELI FORCE WITH
ARMOR AND MECHANIZED INFANTRY UNITS, AND TO HAVE IN-
FLICTED HEAVY LOSSES. AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKESMAN
SAID' THAT WHAT HE HAD.HEARD ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THE
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CROSS-CANAL OPE'R'ATION HE "WOULD NOT WANT TO -INTERPRET ... AS
GOOD TIDINGS." ISRAELI AIR 'ACTIVITY ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
WAS MODERATE YESTERDAY, TARGETED AGAINST A VARIETY OF
RADAR SITES, AIRFIELDS; AND TROOP CONCENTRATIONS-EAST OF
CAIRO, IN THE NORTH (KERN NILE DELTA, IN THE SINAI,, AND IN
THE GREAT BITTER LAKE AREA.
FIGHTING' CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL SECTOR OF THE-
SYRIAN FRONT' A COMBINED SYRIAN AND IRAQI FORCEAT-
TACKED ISRAELI POSITIONS AT DAWN ON 16 OCTOBER, RESULTING'
IN HEAVY TANK BATTLES NEAR AL HARRAH. ISRAELI ARMORED
FORCES SUBSEQUENTLY COUNTERATTACKED TOWARD
DAYR AL-ADAS;'SOME i'5 MILES EAST OF THE CEASE-FIRE
LINE. THE ISRAELIS MAY NOW BE WITHIN FIVE MILES OF
THE DAR'A-DAMASCUS ROAD. AN ISRAELI SPOKESMAN CLAIMED
THAT JORDAN'S ARMORED BRIGADE ADVANCED TOWARD ISRAELI
LINES FROM JASIM, BUT' PULLED BACK AFTER HAVING SUF-
FERED SUBSTANTIAL-LOSSES, AND THAT AN IRAQI UNIT WAS
"BADLY CHEWED UP." TEL AVIV'S ANNOUNCED STRATEGY
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IS TO DESTROY THE FORCES OF OTHER ARAB STATES "PIECE-
PER #_
MEAL" BEFORE THEY CAN. JOIN WITH THE SYRIANS IN A
UNIFIED COMMAND. SYRIAN FORCES IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR MAY HAVE AD-
VANCED TWO TO THREE MILES TO TELL ECH CHAAR, OVER-
LOOKING THE QUNAYTIRAH-DAMASCUS ROAD. SYRIAN AIRCRAFT MOUNTED
RELATIVELY HEAVY ATTACKS ON ISRAELI GROUND FORCES.
PRESIDENT SADAT, IN A SPEECH ON 16 OCTOBER TO A JOINT
SESSION OF THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY AND THE ARAB SOCIAL-
IST UNION CENTRAL COMMITTEE, LAID OUT A TOUGH PEACE
PROPOSAL COUPLED WITH SOME HINTS OF FLEXIBILITY.
SADAT'S POSITION--PRESENTED AS AN OPEN LETTER TO PRES-
IDENT NIXON--IS THAT EGYPT WILL ACCEPT A CEASE-FIRE
WHEN ISRAEL HAS AGREED TO A'WITHDRAWAL TO THE BOUND-
ARIES EXISTING PRIOR TO THE 1967 ARAB-ISRAELI WAR,
AND THAT UPON COMPLETION OF SUCH A WITHDRAWAL, EGYPT
WILL ENTER INTO A UN-SPONSORED INTERNATIONAL PEACE
CONFERENCE. THIS POSITION ON.ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL AP-
PEARS TO BE UNEQUIVOCAL, BUT SAEIAT'S WILLINGNESS TO
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ENTER INTO AN INTERNATIONAL PEACE CONFERENCE AND HIS
REPEATED STATEMENTS THAT HE DOES NOT SEEK TO ANNIHI-
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LATE ISRAEL SUGGEST THAT HE MAY LATER ACCEPT MINOR
COMPROMISES. SADAT MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE WILL NOT
BACK PALESTINIAN CLAIMS TO THE TERRITORY OF ISRAEL
PROPER, ALTHOUGH HE DID CALL FOR SOME RECOGNITION OF
PALESTINIAN RIGHTS. IN A REFERENCE ALMOST CERTAINLY
DESIGNED BOTH TO INTIMIDATE ISRAEL AND TO DEMONSTRATE
THAT EGYPT IS EXERCISING RESTRAINT, SADAT CLAIMED
THAT "EGYPTIAN-ARAB ROCKETS" ARE CAPABLE OF STRIKING
AT ANY POINT IN' ISRAEL, BUT THAT HE IS "AWARE OF THE
RESPONSIBILITY OF. USING, CERTAIN TYPES, OF ARMS.
IN HER SPEECH TO THE KNESSET ON: THE SAME DAY, PRIME
MINISTER MEIR SAID THAT TEL AVIV WOULD NEVER AGREE
TO A CEASE-FIRE PREDICATED ON AN ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL
TO THE 1967 BORDERS.. A CEASE-FIRE,WILL ONLY COME
V ABOUT, ACCORDING TO :THE PRIME-MINISTER, WHEN THE
ARABS ARE DEFEATED ON BOTH;. FRONTS MEIR, V;O.ICED COM-
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PLETE DISBELIEF IN ARAB CLAIMS THAT THEIR GOAL IS
LIMITED TO RETAKING TERRITORY LOST DURING THE 1967
HOSTILITIES, CHARGING THAT THE ARAB AIM IS THE DE-
STRUCTION OF ISRAEL. "THIS IS A WAR AGAINST OUR
VERY EXISTENCE AS A STATE AND A PEOPLE." IN COMMENT-
ING ON THE MILITARY SITUATION, SHE AVOIDED EXTRAVAGANT
CLAIMS, REPORTING ONLY THAT SYRIA'S "STRATEGIC INFRA-
STRUCTURE" HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY DAMAGED AND THAT "SIGNS
INDICATE THAT EGYPT'S INITIATIVE HAS BEEN DESTROYED."
MORE SOVIET CARGO TRANSPORTS FLEW TO THE MID-
DLE EAST ON 16 OCTOBER THAN ON ANY OTHER DAY SINCE
THE AIRLIFT BEGAN ON 10 OCTOBER. THE SEVEN-DAY TOTAL
OF CARGO TRANSPORT FLIGHTS TO ARAB COMBATANTS IS NOW
APPROXIMATELY 360. THE SOVIETS PROBABLY ARE
DELIVERING EQUIPMENT AND ORDNANCE SUCH AS SURFACE-TO-
AIR AND AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES, AI< DEFENSE RADARS, CRIT-
ICAL SPARE PARTS, AND POSSIBLY ANTIAIRCRAFT AMMUNITION.
//SOVIET MEDIA-CONTINUE TO ISSUE BRIEF, STRAIGHT-
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FORWARD ACCOUNTS OF US ARMS DELIVERIES TO ISRAEL. A
MOSCOW RADIO BROADCAST YESTERDAY REPEATED A WESTERN
WIRE SERVICE REPORT THAT US AIR FORCE TRANSPORTS HAD
STARTED ARRIVING IN ISRAEL. ANOTHER MOSCOW BROADCAST,
BEAMED TO THE ARAB WORLD, FOCUSED ON THE NEED FOR
PEACE, BUT CHASTISED PRIME MINISTER MEIR FOR HER IN-
SISTENCE THAT PEAC.E IS CONTINGENT ON THE RETURN TO
THE 6 OCTOBER CEASE-FIRE LINES.//{SECRET}
3.//WESTERN EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST: THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
HAS ONCE MORE IMPRESSED ON THE EUROPEANS 'THEIR INABILITY TO
INFLUENCE A SITUATION THAT PRESEINTS A POTENTIALLY GRAVE THREAT
TO BOTH THEIR ENERGY SUPPLIES AND EAST-WEST DETENTE.//
//AFTER HOLDING POLITICAL CONSULTATIONS ON THE MIDDLE
EAST, THE NINE EC MEMBERS ISSUED A BLAND COMMUNIQUE THAT WAS
DESCRIBED BY AN INFLUENTIAL GERMAN NEWSPAPER AS AN APPEAL
FULL OF PLATITUDES." ALTHOUGH THE EC CLAIMS TO HAVE A WORLD-
WIDE VIEW, THE, NEWSPAPER SAID, THE COMMUNITY'S PRONOUNCEMENTS
CARRY LITTLE WEIGHT -BECAUSE ITS MEMBERS PURSUE DIFFERENT POLICIES.
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THE DECLARATION CALLED FOR A CEASE-FIRE LINKED TO "TRUE NEGO-
TIATIONS WITHIN AN APPROPRIATE FRAMEWORK" AND AIMED AT A SETTLE-
MENT CONFORMING TO THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL'S REUIUISOLUTION 242,
WHICH CALLED FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM TERRITORIES OCCUPIED DURING THE
SIX-DAY WAR. THE POLITICAL DIRECTORS OF THE EC FOREIGN MINISTRIES
ALSO AGREED TO SUSPEND ARMS SHIPMENTS TO THE "BELLIGERENTS," BUT
LEFT THE DEFINITION OF THE TERM UP TO EACH MEMBER. THE PRACTICAL
IMPORT OF BOTH THESE MOVES IS SMALL, BUT THEY ARE INDICATIVE OF
THE NINE'S DESIRE TO OVERCOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INTERESTS OF
AFFIRMING A "EUROPEAN" POSITION.//
//EVEN BEFORE THE FIGHTING BROKE OUT ON 6 OCTOBER, EUROPEANS
WERE FEELING INCREASINGLY NERVOUS ABOUT BEING CAUGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF AN ARAB-US DISPUTE OVER OIL. THE OUTBREAK OF HOSTILITIES
RAISED FEARS THAT THE ARABS INTEND TO -USE THEIR OIL AS A POLITICAL
WEAPON AND HAS LED TO HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR ARAB SENSITIVITIES.
THE OFFICIAL EUROPEAN POLICY OF "EVENHANDEDNESS TOWARD THE ARABS
AND THE ISRAELIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A GENERAL* DECLINE IN PUBLIC
SYMPATHIES FOR ISRAEL SINCE THE 1967 WAR.//
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//STRONG PRO-ISRAELI SENTIMENTS STILL EXIST IN SOME QUARTERS,
HOWEVER: AND THE FRENCH AND BRITISH ARMS EMBARGOES TO THE "BATTLE-
FRONT" STATES HAVE GIVEN RISE TO DOMESTIC CRITICISM SINCE THE
MEASURES PRIMARILY WORK TO ISRAEL'S DISADVANTAGE. IN FRANCE, THE
POLITICAL EFFECT OF SUCH CRITICISM ON THE GOVERNMENT IS MINIMIZED
BECAUSE BOTH THE GOVERNMENT COALITION AND THE OPPOSITION
SOCIALIST-COMMUNIST ALLIANCE ARE SPLIT ON THE ISSUE. ON THE OTHER
HAND, BRITISH POLICY IS UNDER HEAVY DOMESTIC CRITICISM AND THERE
MAY BE SOME MODIFICATION, SUCH AS PROVIDING AMMUNITION AND SPARE
PARTS FOR ARMS OF BRITISH ORIGIN.//
//EUROPEAN CONCERN ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS HAS YET TO
MAKE AN IMPACT ON THE CURRENT SESSION OF THE CONFERENCE ON
SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE, WHICH IS MEETING IN GENEVA,
OR THE PRELIMINARIES OF THE FORCE REDUCTION TALKS IN VIENNA.
NATO SECRETARY GENERAL LUNS CALLED A RESTRICTED MEETING OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL ON 16 OCTOBER TO DISCUSS THE EFFECT ON
THE ALLIANCE AND ON DETENTE, IF THE WAR SHOULD ESCALATE. {SECRET}//
E-2IMPDETrI
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