PAO STUDY PLAN FOR FY 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R002100090007-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: October 2, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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SUBJECT:
Director, Program Assessment Office
PAO Study Plan for FY 1981
REFERENCES:
A.
B.
PAO Memorandum, dated 29 July 1980, Subject:
PAO Study Program for FY 1981 (11)
PAO Memorandum, dated 11 August 1980, Subject:
First Draft PAO Study Plan and Input to
FY 1983-1987 Guidance
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1. The attached revised studies list resulted from a review by
nd myself. It is heavily flavored by my
current perspective of what is needed, possible and useful to do in
this uncertain year. If it is not obvious from the list, I remain
willing to support the DCI in the current issues, e.g., imagery
revisited, but strongly interested in work leading to both better
decisions and better methods to attack and communicate future
decisions. (U)
? incorporates and updates ongoing work, i.e., studies
expected to result from Budget Review, but aimed at
the FY 1983-1987 Program Review;
? deletes 11 studies;
? adds six studies to the list; and
? identifies at least four studies that should be done
by someone other than PAO. (U)
3. The following studies have been added to the list:
WARNING NOTICE
WORKING PAPER
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES PAJIMLE VIA
AND METHODS INVOLVED ~QT;,[YIOLE
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S. Comments and/or recommendations on the attachment should be
given to by COB 3 October or SOB F October. I should
like to improve the clarity of the language on all items. After we
update the attachment, I will then ask the other office
directors and to comment. We also plan to get together
with the MCPO, winch s ou d be interested/helpful in many of them.
(u)
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Attachment-a/s
Distribution:
Ori g-D/PAO
1 -DD/PAO
i-PAO Subject
i-PAO Chrono
1-PAO
1-Each PAO Staff memher
DCI/RM/PAO:
D/DCI/RM/PP
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2 October 1980
PAO FY 1981 Study Program
Candidate Studies
Subject
Category Subject
Purpose/Scope/Objective Related Studies
Imagery o ection and Processing
1.1 Imagery Collection.Mix Study Strategy paper for Budget Review prepared--
will probably result in joint study with
DoD (to include film systems,.MAPSAT, hack-up
considerations).
0
Project Leader:
Principal Investigator:
1.2 Duplication of Exploitation and Is there unwarranted duplication of imagery
Photointerpreters Requirements exploitation in the Intelligence Community? How
through 1987 do the various organizations involved in photo-
interpretation estimate their future needs for photo-
interpreters? If exploitation were distributed
differently or if photointerpretation organizations
were consolidated, would the needs for additional
photointerpreters be reduced? Is the distribution
of interpreters between national and departmental
organizations adequate? Is the distribution of their
work between national and departmental requirements
adequate? Examine one week's National Imagery (including
search) and compare it for PI resources, exploitation,
reports, data base entries and briefings that result from
the imagery. From this data base, develop measures of
timeliness, redundancy, and unique exploitation in
order to estimate the resource implications and
intelligence impact of combining/deleting/expanding
various exploitation functiuns. (U)
Project Leader:
Principal Investigator:
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Subject
Category Subject Purpose/Scope/Objective
1.3 Broad-Area Search Exploitation/ What are the resource/timeliness/intelligence
Collection. Methodologies impacts of various broad-area search methods and
accounting procedures? We still do not fully under-
stand the implications of small pieces of imagery
versus large contiguous areas. How sensitive are
these methods to collection frequency requirements,
i.e., what happens if two-month, four-month and six-
month search requirements are slipped to three-month,
five-month and eight-month requirements? The quantity
of imagery decreases but what is the effect on
intelligence? Includes at least monitoring the
COIIREX study directed by DCI decision letter. (U)
Project Leader:
Principal Investigator:
1.4 ADP-T (FY 80 carryover) Complete report--much contention and conflict foreseen
Project Leader:
Principal Investigator:
1.5 JT0/Tasking Segment A Budget Review issue that will probably produce
(FY 80 carryover) need for additional effort with CT (jointness a
problem).
Principal Investigator:
1.6 IR Imagery (FY 80 carryover) Hopefully make some sense of the utility question
and prepare to deal with Congress in a rational way.
Principal Investigator:
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Related Studies
-,LEN i'-KE',"HALL
C N1ROL SSZ IL&1S JOINTLY
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Third World - INT
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d (P tential contra overhead
o
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OT IGINT Collection an
Utility be used as a backup for Third World CQ4INT coverage
if current access denied second/
third world parties, , e its,
processing, analysts? What would it cost to provide
a useful increment of this kind of backup? This will
eventually be subsumed in new study 9.7. (S)
Production
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5.1 Output Study Survey national intelligence producers for
up-to-date on their output; names and types
of publications, distribution lists, release
frequency, and the like. This study is
patterned on theIprojects of previou-
years, with certain methodological improvements
and, optimally, expanded to include the full
range of transdepartmental products, not simply
periodicals.
Project Leader:
Principal Inves iga or
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ELINT Collection and Processing
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(FY 80 carryover)
Subject
Category Subject Purpose/Scope/Objectives Related Studies
2.0 No new studies planned or proposed for FY 81 unless
the low orbiter decision is postponed.
2.1
kFY SO carryover
contract on this subject
review of this subject
SovietCOMINT
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3.0 No new studies planned or proposed for FY 81
1odifications Follow-on efforts 1BD--fallout from Budget Review
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Project Leader:
0
Principal Investigator:
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carryover) possible--a tough area.
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Category Subject
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Purpose/Scope/Objective Related Studies
5.2 ELINT Applications An examination of the intelligence problems to which
ELINT contributes in order to improve EMS decision-
making about ELINT collection and processing
initiatives. Analog to the PAO efforts on imagery
tasking, exploitation of ADP. Should do this jointly
with IRO and build on IBM's ELINT data flow study. (U)
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Project Leader: C
Principal Investigators:
5.3 Intelligence Community Response This study is similar to a post-mortem but the events
to a New Threat (propose Laser in question occur over a longer duration and are more
and Beam Weapons) diffuse. In addition to preparing a substantive summary
of developments, we intend to-look at managerial steps
that were taken and the allocation of resources. The
principal output will be a descriptive summary, a
critique of the adequacy of the community's response,
and recommendations for improving the process.
Project Leader:
Principal Inves
Human Source Collect
6.0 No new studies proposed or planned for FY 81
6.1 Defense Attache Office
(FY 80 carryover)
Project Leader:
Principal Investi .
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Category Subject
Purpose/Scope/Objective
6.2 Army Clandestine HIMINT Still waiting for data requested in letter to
d dations
men
(FY 80 carryover)
Tighe (Dec. 1979) and results an recom
of DoD HIM TNT survey.
Principal Investigator:
Support to Operating Forces and/or I
Crisis Anticipation
ernational Crises
A recommendation of the Contingency Study is to assign
responsibility within the Community for maintaining
a C1 E h would contain,
on 0 countries where
the possibility of using militar contingency forces
is considered most likely. The uld be used to
focus basic intelligence production necessary for
planning and executing contingency operations. As a
result, lead times would have to be longer than for
traditional I&W (about six months) and consequently,
less accurate predictions would be expected. A review
is required to assess whether current organizations
could assume this responsibility, or whether a
separate group should be established. In addition, the
review should recommend how the predictions of such a
group could best be reflected in Intelligence Community
priority documents. A proposed forum for this review
would be an Ad Hoc Working Group, chaired by an ICS
representative with members from DIA, NSA, CIA and
the State Department. (TS)
Principal Investigator:
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7.2 Third World Data Bases/ Third World data bases to support military forces is
.Minimum Essential Data well documented in both the Contingency and DASITT
Bases (5.4) studies. DIA is currently trying to define, with
inputs from the RDJTF, those minimum essential
Intelligence Support to elements of information required to support planning
RDJTF (7.4) and execution for various types of contingency
situations. I?M S should track this effort and, once
the minimum needs are established, play an active role
in leading a Community review of data base holdings to
identify shortfalls in satisfying these needs for
priority areas on the initial
Based on this review, options and associated cost
estimates) should be developed for producing, at
various levels of satisfaction, the geotopical data
needed to satisfy the shortfalls identified. (S)
Project Leader:
Principal Inves ga or:
7.3 Post.Mortems Based on recommendations in both the Contingency Study
and the Senior Review Board's review of the
Community's performance in estimating North Korean
troop strengths, there appears to be a real resource
management/ICS role in post-mortems on significant
events in which elements of the Community are involved.
The proposal is that IRS take a small but significant
action in this area by convening an interagency
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Category Subject
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group and conducting a proto-type post mortem on
a recent event involving a contingency type
operations, e.g., the Colombian hostage situation.
Emphasis would be on analyzing the performance
and contribution of collection systems and
production organizations to identify potential
resource implications. For the effort to be most
successful, the DCI should explicitly endorse it.
(TS)
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Project Leader: C
Principal Investigators:
NRP-General
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(FY 80 carryover)
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No new studies proposed or planned for FY 81
Identify possible cross-program architectures for
providin apabilities for NRP systems.
(S/TK)
Project Leader:
Principal Investigator:
9.1 Research and Development How are the Community's resources distributed for
R&D? Which organizations receive the bulk of money?
What types of research are they doing? Are there
areas of research that are being neglected? What
kinds of problems could benefit from R&D? How readily
does the R&D Community adapt to changing intelligence
problems? What we really need is an IR&D Council
fiinctioninq. (il)
Project Leader:
Principal Investiga or
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Category Subject
Purpose/Scope/Objective Related Studies
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9.3 Linguist Shortfalls Discussions with Craig Wilson, who is charged with
coordinating linguist-related training and resources
in the Department of Defense, and who
has a similar function for NSA, have IUIUIM
a useful background for a requirement levied on the
DCI and the Secretary of Defense by the HPSCI that a
program encompassing "a Community-wide approach toward
alleviating the linguist shortfalls" be forwarded to
the HPSCI along with the FY 1982 budget request. As
Chairman of the DCI's Ad Hoc Task Force on the Linguist
Problem, will be responsible for
coordinating e r ion of our reply. His first
task will be to work out with Craig Wilson,
shall also be working closely with in
Advisory Group (OTAG) of the Hunan Resource omnittee.
(C)
Project Leader:
Principal Investiga or.
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Subject
Category Subject
Purpose/Scope/Objective Related Studies
9.4 PAO.Management Information An internal study to define the kinds of Community
System (MIS) and management information that PAO needs to routinely
obtain to carry out its missions. This study could
support a more broadly based II11S/CTS effort and should
also help define how we should manage our internal
files in light of the automated registry system. (U)
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Project Leader:
Principal investigators:
9.5 I?1S Budget Ranking Methodology An evaluation of how the budget ranking and decision
process can be improved, with special emphasis on the
role of PAO. The thrust here is a two phased one.
First, develop a systematic method which can be used
early on in CIS and even NFIB which explicitly
recognizes payoffs, risks, subjective judgements, and
factors such as changing world and changing Soviet
practices. The second part is research into methodology
for partial automation and more sophisticated techniques.
(U)
Project Leader:
Principal Investigators:
9.6 Inflation Market Basket
(FY 80 carryover)
Principal Investigator:
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Category Subject Purpose/Scope/Objective Related Studies
9.7 Third World Collection Study
9.8 Presearch Contract on Overt
Processing of S&T Intelligence
To consider all INT's and their relative
value/capabilities may vary by region and country.
Principal Investigator
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dDLL VIA
%[,_IN-O'E'11 CLE
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