ALERT MEMORANDUM ON USSR-AFGHANISTAN(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200030012-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: September 14, 1979
• Content Type: MF

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14 September 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: The National Security Council
SUBJECT : Alert Memorandum on USSR-Afghanistan
The Soviet leaders may be on the threshold of a decision to commit
their own forces to prevent the collapse of the Taraki regime and protect
their sizable stake in Afghanistan. Small Soviet combat units may already
have arrived in the country. I am concerned that the Soviets may be
underestimating the difficulties of shoring up the regime and may find
themselves under growing pressures to escalate the scope of their inter-
vention in the next few months. Moreover, the Soviets may now be more
inclined to gamble on a substantial intervention in Afghanistan because
of their perception of a downturn in relations with the US and thio -
certain prospects for Senate approval of the SALT treaty.
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NI 1AM 79-10012K
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
ALERT MEMORANDUM*
USSR-Afghanistan
14 September 1979
The Soviets may have begun to give more serious con-
sideration to the spectrum of possibilities for direct
combat intervention in Afghanistan.
I
mid-August arrival in Kabul of General Pavlovskiy, Commander of the
Soviet Ground Forces, and a high-level delegation which includes several
other generals and colonels,
av ovs iy is probably
e ng a extent o e rea to the Afghan government
and preparing contingency plans which will outline the amount and nature
of Soviet military support needed to contain that threat, both in its
current stage and if it worsens.
As opposition to the Afghan government has increased over the past
year, the Soviets have gradually augmented their military advisory
*The Alert Memorandum is an interagency publication issued by the Director
of Central Intelligence on behalf of the Intelligence Community. Its
purpose is to ensure that senior policymakers are aware of the serious
implications for US interests of impending potential developments. It
is not a prediction that these developments will occur. This memorandum
has been coordinated at the working level by CIA, DIA, NSA, and State/INR.
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the Soviet presence has grown 25X1
the role o Soviet troops has increasingly changed from a mere advisory
one to active participation 25X1
the Soviets
have moved up to troops into a u within the past two or three
weeks to protect Soviet facilities and personnel there.
such a movement UT
y e e ase security precautions and an
escalation of Soviet involvement beyond an advisory role. The Soviets
might consider such a move into Kabul to be prudent in view of the up-
risings that have occurred in Kabul this Year and the continuing possi-
bility of violence in the capital.
In expanding the level of their own involvement in Afghanistan,
there is a danger that the Soviets -- consciously or unconsciously --
will amplify their own stake in the ultimate outcome, making it in-
creasingly difficult for them to resist raising the level of their
participation still another notch should they feel it necessary. C
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