THREAT OF A LEFTIST EXTREMIST TAKEOVER IN EL SALVADOR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200020034-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 26, 2006
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: January 24, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D. C. 20505
ALERT MEMORANDUM
24 January 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: The National Security Council
SUBJECT : Threat of a Leftist Extremist Takeover
in El Salvador
1. Leftist extremists in El Salvador continue to make impor-
tant gains in military and political strength. Meanwhile, the
governing junta is riven by divisions and its support among the
politically active population is dwindling. Under these circum-
stances, a leftist extremist thrust for power--through widespread
military action or nationwide strikes and disorders--could come at
any time, and with little warning. If there is an outbreak of civil
war, or simply a collapse of the government with attendant anarchy,
the odds would favor an extreme left victory, especially in the
short term. I-I
2. I believe the situation in El Salvador demands close
attention at this time, and I am making you aware of my concern.
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24 January 1980
ALERT MEMORANDUM*
The extreme Left appears determined to seize power in
EZ Salvador during 1980. Bolstered by its own growing
military strength and popular support, and by the
declining support and weakness of the governing junta,
the extreme Left could make a thrust for power at almost
any time. Moreover, during the next couple of months,
debilitating general strikes, an attempted coup by
conservative military officers or some other serious
incident could touch off a revolutionary showdown. The
odds increasingly favor the extreme left in a conflict,
because of political divisions in the junta and the poor
state of readiness of the military and security forces.
The extreme left is in an increasingly advantageous position
for an armed struggle. Its timetable and tactics may not yet be
fixed, and may be affected more by events--such as a rightwing
coup--than by planning.
Leftist extremists have been expanding the numbers of their
armed guerrillas as well as their political activists and
organizers. They have also made significant strides in unifying
and coordinating both their military and political activities.
The Alert Memorandum is an interagency publication issued by the
Director of Central Intelligence on behalf of the Intelligence
Community. Its purpose is to ensure that senior policymakers are
aware of impending potential developments that may have serious
implications for US interests. It is not a prediction that these
developments will occur. This memorandum has been coordinated at
the working Level with CIA, DIA, NSA, and State/INR.
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A mass rally in San Salvador on 22 January, to celebrate their
newly proclaimed unity, brought upwards of 80,000 demonstrators
into the streets. This may have exceeded their own expectations,
though various popular front groups throughout the country have
been growing rapidly. 0
The extreme left is very well funded, mainly from kidnap ransoms.
It has improved its military capabilities through training in El
Salvador and in Nicaragua and Cuba, and through increasingly
sophisticated hit-and-run raids on both government security posts
and civilian targets. It is also increasing the size and
sophistication of its armaments and, with Cuban assistance, is
laying the logistic groundwork for resupply
The governing junta--a combination of moderate military officers
and Christian Democratic politicians--has had considerable diffi-
culty putting together a cabinet since it was formed in early Janu-
ary. The junta's agreement on goals is paper thin, because of
differences between and within both its civilian and military camps.
The indecision has delayed sorely needed US economic and security
The weaknesses of the government probably cannot be papered over.
Pressures from rightist civilians and senior military leaders have
prevented the moderate military members in the junta from moving too
rapidly to enact reforms. The moderates fear a coup from the right,
which would split the military institution. Meanwhile, the Christian
Democrats, especially their younger, more leftist members, are
trying to pull the junta in the opposite direction to mend the
government's fences with the center left.
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If there is an outbreak of civil war, or simply a collapse of
the government with attendant anarchy, the odds would favor an
extreme left victory, especially in the short term. Even if a
rightist coup installed a government determined to crack down against
the extreme left, the long-term advantage would probably lie with the
latter. A rightwing military government would still be weakened by
political divisiveness, which would undercut its limited capability
for protracted warfare. The extreme left, under these circumstances,
would gain recruits from the center, as was the case in Nicaragua
Civil war in El Salvador would endanger the safety of US
officials and citizens, as well as threaten US interests through-
out Central America. lul
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