STATUS REPORT ON MOSCOW LEADERSHIP RUMORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-88-7-7-0
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: November 24, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/04/27: LOC-HAK-88-7-7-0
SECRET
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL 7829
AFORMATION
4e
007/1 November 24, 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR BRENT ~CROFT
FROM: Mr. Clift
SUBJECT: Status Report on Moscow Leadership Rumors
As the 24th Soviet Party Congress nears, reports and rumors of
upcoming changes in the Soviet leadership are increasing in frequency.
At our request, CIA has looked at these reports in an attempt to
identify possible common threads and to see what conclusions might
be drawn. The paragraphs below are based on the Agency's findings
arizes a
as of mid-November. The chart at Ta brie 1-v summ
number of the most interesting report
25X1
The surge of reports in recent months concerning changes in the Soviet
leadership springs from the proximity of the Party Congress next
February, Brezhnev's recurring health problems and recognition that 25X1
a generational changeover is impending; While earlier this year the
rumor spotlight was principally on Brezhnev, the focus has now expanded
to include a number of players. In fact, there are now a nu ber of
rumors to the effect that Brezhnev will survive the Par y Congress anc25X1
continue in power.
Those variously rumored to be on the way out are the most visible
seniors: Brezhnev PodgornyE~ Kosygin[= Suslov= and 25X1
Pelshe Although not a senior, Minister of Agriculture Polyansky
is also rumored to be on the way out because of the bad harvest. The 25X1
take over generation in the scenarios circulating in the Soviet Union and 25X1
Eastern Europe is limited essentially to -those leaders whose duties keep
them in the public eye in Mosc arty Secretary Kirilenlco
First Deputy Premier Mazuro Foreign Minister Gromyko
Leningrad Party Chief Romanov and Party Secretaries Ponomarev
and Demichev 0 KGB Chief Andropov, Moscow party boss Grishin
and virtually all the regional leaders are 2no ed in nearly all reports.25X1
SECRET/GDS
.All tonuitically L)owngr:uk'.d at Two
year Intervals and Declassified on
December 31, 198-1.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/04/27: LOC-HAK-88-7-7-0
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/04/27: LOC-HAK-88-7-7-0
SECRET - 2
With the exception of the obvious guessing relating to promotions of
deputies.-. with Kirilenko replacing Brezhnev and Mazurov replacing
Kosygin w.. there is little consistency in the pattern of reports. In.
contrast to last year, for example, when his removal was frequently
rnrnnred_ Gromvko this year is regarded as a "stayer" wit
will be part of a troika to succeed rez nev. Kosygin's departure is
predicted altho
ugh
ight
replace Po gorny as chief of sae, andl
Suslov will be succeeded by Ponomarev or Demichev, both of whom are
his understudies.
While analysts differ as to the explanation for, the diminution of retorts
concerning Brezhnev and the surge of rumors
concerning the rest of the leadership in recent weeks, they
do seem to agree that the rumors:
??- reflect growing expectation'
change will occur over the next year or two;
political