MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 8

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-557-2-3-8
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 7, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
7 October 1973
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
MIDDLE EAST
Situation Report Number 8
(As of 1700' EDT)
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
2.
on both
The Israelis laim
fronts
at least for the present.
3. The Egyptians are focusing on moving elements of
two armored divisions across the canal near Ismailia and
the city of Suez. The Israelis, however, claim to have
destroyed most of the bridges across the canal. Both
Cairo and Tel Aviv report an Israeli counterattack against
II I
, ? ?
? I
the Egyptian forces on the east ban
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Port Said after having crossed the canal earlier today.
An Israeli spokesman has admitted that some 400 Egyptian
tanks plus infantry are on the east bank.
State Dept. review
completed
MORI/CDF per C03223280
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13. So far the Egyptian press has not accused the US
of being a direct accomplice to Israel as it did in 1967.
The Algerian and: Moroccan media have only tangentially
cited the US in connection with the current hostilities.
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ISRAEL
14. The mood of Israeli leaders has been described as (
grim as it becomes increasingly apparent that they will
have to pay a high price to beat back invading Syrian and
Egyptian forces. Ambassador Keating in Tel Aviv believes
? that a US call for a ceasefire now, therefore, would
backfire. Not only would the Israelis angrily reject
such a proposal, but the US ambassador believes that they
would thereafter be even less willing to listen to urgings
of restraint from Washington and other Western capitals
once they gained the initiative.
15. In contrast to Israeli leadexs, YzeSident Sadat
seemed relaxed and confident today, telling visitors that
Egyptian farces would continue fighting until they reach
the June 1967 boundaries--no matter bow long it took.
16. The Israeli public is being given only general
descriptions of the fighting in the Golan Heights and
along the Suez canal. Information elven the Israeli news
media has focused thus far on laying out Tel Aviv's reasons
for not launching a pre-emptive attack,.and playing up the
evacuation of Soviet dependents and advisers from Syria
and Egypt. The press has also tried to give the impression
that the US, while giving lip-service to the idea of a cease-
fire resolution, is using delaying tactics at the UN in
order to give the Israelis enough time to push the Egyptians
back across the canal.
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SOVIET MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
17. There has been no significant change in Soviet
naval deployments in the area.
SOVIET POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
18. In keeping with the low profile it has maintained
since the fighting began, Moscow today issued a relatively
bl.and government statement on the present crisis. Carried
by TASS at 1200 EDT, the statement blames Israel for the
current situation, but limits Moscow's role to political
support for the Arabs. Contrasting the state of affairs
in the Middle East to recent efforts at international
detente, the statement says that a durable peace in the
area rests on Israel's willingness to return territories
annexed during the 1967 war.
UNITED NATIONS
19. Security Council members have reached no decision
on calling a Council meeting and appear deadlocked on the
question of issuing a ceasefire appeal. British
representatives at the UN have denied press reports that
they requested a Council session. Australia, the only other
Council member openly favoring a meeting, has indicated that
it will leave the initiative to the US. The Soviet Union
and non-aligned states are opposing a Council meeting
which, under the UN Charter, would preclude formal General
Assembly consideration of the Middle East hostilities.
The Arab states apparently prefer to present their case at
tomorrow's General Assembly session where they can rely upon
majority support and where there is no great power veto.
US Ambassador Scali hopes to limit the number of speakers
and preclude a'full scale "debate in the Assembly-by'limiting
the number of speakers.
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LIBYA
21. President Qadhafi apparently has cancelled his
scheduled speech commemorating Italian Evacuation Day.
The city of Tripoli is .calm in keeping with the local
holiday. Our Embassy has no reports of Any difficulties
fpr the 2000 Americans in the country.
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ANNEX
How Does The Situation Look Now
And
How Will It Look by Week' End?
The Israelis clearly were caught off balance when the
attacks occurred along the Golan Heights and the Suez
Canal. Their forces were not fully mobilized, and the
performance of both the Syrians and Egyptians has been
betier than anticipated. The immediate objective of
the Israelis is to contain the attacking forces while
mobilizing their reserves. By tomorrow, the Israeli
ground forces should be ready to begin pressing their
counterattacks, particularly in the Golan Heights.
Because the Israelis have not yet been able to strike
back effectively with armor, they have relied heavily on
their air arm to blunt the Syrian offensive. Some forward
positions have been lost to the Syrians, but the momentum
of the Syrian drive appears to have ;been stalled. Within
the next day or so the Israelis should regain the initiative
on both fronts and heavy fighting will ensue. We believe
the Israelis will achieve their major Objectives by the end
of the week.
What Will Happen on the Golan Heights?
Israeli strategy initially is to stop. the Syrian
offensive and to counterattack with overwhelming force
aimed at destroying as much of the Syrian Army as possible.
Presently the Israelis are trying to stall the Syrian
drive through heavy air strikes. Meanwhile Israeli armor
is being mobilized for the counterattack. As part of their
efforts, the Israelis are likely to send armor columns
around the Syrian flanks, and might even sent an armored
column through Jordan. The Israelis probably will not
attempt to occupy Damascus, however. Once the Israelis
have cleared the Golan Heights area they will likely
stop and hold. Severe damage will have been done to the
Syrian ?army and little would be gained militarily by mov-
ing into Damascus. Occupying a city the size of Damascus
could be a long and difficult task.
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What Will Happen Along The Cgnal?
On the Egyptian front, the immediate situation appears
to be less serious. The Egyptian objective appears to be
limited to that of acquiring only'that area immediately
adjacent to the canal. A deep thrust into Sinai itself
would not seem likely becallse of the difficulty of penetrat?
ion. Only to major roads lead across the peninsula and
both are heavily fortified by the Israelis. Clearly
the Sinai buffer is paying off for the Israelis by giving
then time to take care of the situation on the Golan
Heights before having to turn their attention to the
Egyptian operation.
(
How Long Will It Take To Push The Egyptians Back?
Israeli strategy on the Egyptian front at present is
to contain the Egyptian offensive within the immediate
area adjacent to the canal and to hold back its counterattack
until Israeli armored forces are fully mobilized. The
Israelis are now more concerned about the situation along
the Syrian front and a counterattack against the Egyptian
forces apparently is being delayed--perhaps until Tuesday
or Wednesday. When the Israelis are ready to move against
the Egyptians, they will hit them hard. The objective
will be to cut off the escape routes by destroying the
Egyptian pontoon bridges and then striking with armor
and air power against Egyptian forces left in Sinai.
Some of the bridges reportedly have already been destroyed
but they could be replaced overnight. When fully engaged,
the Israelis will probably be ablq to complete clearing
the Sinai within a few days.
Will The Israelis Engage In Air Attacks on Cairo?
The Israelis are capable of overcoming the Egyptian
SAM defenses although some aircraft losses will occur,
and could severely punish the Egyptians through air strikes
on population centers. Deep penetration raids aimed at
civilians have not yet occurred and probably will not as
long as the Israelis are confident of defeating the
Egyptians along the canal. If the Egyptians attack Tel
Aviv, however, counterstrikes at Cairo are likely.
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